Breaking Down Rocco Baldelli’s Decision to Pull Bailey Ober

[joefish]

I was ok with the Ober/Sands move.

Ober had done his job. Sands has been doing his. Not this time. Bad fortune. Clunk. 

NoBats.

[AKTwinsFan]

The Twins have the highest payroll yet the 2nd worst record in the division. It might be time to start shopping Correa around before the trade deadline. The payroll is why no one is buying the team. We gotta clean house before anyone is buying.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

52 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

It was never spoken outright...but I always felt Sonny Gray was never going to resign with Minnesota even if they wanted him.

 

Gray even made a few subtle comments during his time in Minnesota that hinted at his frustration with being yanked early. It wasn’t blatant, but if you read between the lines, it was clear he wasn’t thrilled with the leash he was given.

2023 was the most innings he’d pitched since 2015, his third highest innings total season, and his single season highest WAR of his career. He didn’t repeat that in 2024. If that’s on Rocco, then Gray should be kissing Rocco’s butt for the salary boost…. I personally don’t think it is on Rocco, I think it’s on Gray

[Bad News TC Bears]

Some really good points already about analytics and metrics guiding decision making. I'm kinda old school.... Pitchers used to tell coaches to get back into the dugout and they would have to rip the ball out of my hand type of responses. It's a long season but sometimes you let the guy finish things... You wouldn't have Nolan Ryan or Greg Maddox leave a game like that because they wouldn't allow it. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Last season, I screamed repeatedly about Rocco pulling pictures too early… But I didn’t have as much of an issue with this one. If you look at the sixth, Ober was clearly tiring  He was lucky to get out of the sixth without giving up a run.. The last out was a rocket into  center that Bader made a nice catch on. He was starting to run on fumes. And frankly, Sands has been so good, I thought it was the right move.

[Patzky]

5 hours ago, lunemann said:

I wonder if the Pohlads can even afford to pay for another manager.

Also, with the team for sale I'm not sure we would have many top tier candidates interested who then might get fired when a new owner wants to bring in their own guy. I fear we are just stuck with what we have until the Pohlads are gone. 20 years too late.

I have often thought Pablo would make an excellent player/manager.

[The Great Hambino]

24 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

2023 was the most innings he’d pitched since 2015, his third highest innings total season, and his single season highest WAR of his career. He didn’t repeat that in 2024. If that’s on Rocco, then Gray should be kissing Rocco’s butt for the salary boost…. I personally don’t think it is on Rocco, I think it’s on Gray

 

Innings/start - MIN: 5.4

Innings/start - STL: 5.8

ERA - MIN: 2.90

ERA - STL: 3.90 (My analytics tell me this is one full run higher than in MIN)

Lots of areas where Twins management deserves blame.  The handling of Sonny Gray is not one of them.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

It was never spoken outright...but I always felt Sonny Gray was never going to resign with Minnesota even if they wanted him.

 

Gray even made a few subtle comments during his time in Minnesota that hinted at his frustration with being yanked early. It wasn’t blatant, but if you read between the lines, it was clear he wasn’t thrilled with the leash he was given.

it's possible Sonny Gray has never thought he should come out of a game in his entire life. It's like asking Buxton or Lewis if they can play that day: even if a limb was falling off they'd say yes. Ask Gray if he's got another inning in him and he's going to say yes. It's both admirable and foolish. He had a good first season with MN followed by one of the best seasons of his career. If coming off one of the best seasons of your career, where you were the runner up for the Cy Young award you're mad at the team for how they handled you to the point of not wanting to come back? Maybe you don't have the first damn clue what's actually best for you on the field.

but Gray wasn't going to sign here because we weren't going to give him 3+ years at $20M+ per season. I would argue the Twins made the correct choice in making him the QO, then letting him go when he declined.

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Doesn’t really matter. Offense went 1-9 with RISP. Only 9 runs in the 4 games in KC. 
 

These season stats explain the 4-9 start:

.199 AVG, .596 OPS

3.38 runs per game

Give the pitching staff their flowers too. I'm pretty sure they were sitting near the bottom of the league as well before getting a 4 game set vs. KC's anemic offense. 

[Mike Sixel]

We should have pilots fly without data too! They never used to use it.

Maybe computers and phones should stop using data. 

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

would argue the Twins made the correct choice in making him the QO, then letting him go when he declined

Not in disagreement...just he didn't like Rocco's methodology. 

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Not in disagreement...just he didn't like Rocco's methodology. 

Which made him the best he ever was....

[IndianaTwin]

22 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Not in disagreement...just he didn't like Rocco's methodology. 

Actually, Gray was quoted several times as saying he would have been glad to come back. As others have noted, the Twins (wisely, as I would add to others) chose not to offer him three years at $20M+. He wisely took the offer he was able to get from the Cardinals. Other than a couple of out-of-context quotes, he seemed to have had a positive experience pitching for the Twins.  

[Twinsoholic]

Mike Sixel writes: “We should have pilots fly without data too! They never used to use it.

Maybe computers and phones should stop using data.”

Mike, I almost always find myself enjoying your posts. You bring a lot of passion to the threads. I have quoted you because I don’t think anyone is saying jettison data, i.e., drop so-called modern analytics. No one is advocating that Rocco embrace vestigial strategies for, say, Rounders when people post criticisms of Rocco’s decision to have Sands come in for Ober. Speaking only for myself, I am saying that unless there was a medical reason for pulling Ober after 6 innings (or unless Ober told Rocco that Ober felt he was running out of gas), then not letting Ober pitch the 7th against the bottom of the KC order is super puzzling. We have, arguably, an overworked bullpen, so getting effective starters to pitch past the 6th inning would appear to be desirable. From my admittedly limited perspective, Rocco made two blunders in Tuesday’s and yesterday’s games. He comes across to me, speaking for no one else, as consistently mechanical. Perhaps there is much more improvisation with Rocco than meets the eye. Perhaps, however, his level of managerial mojo and intuition are not that deep. Perhaps he is just super comfortable with one overriding methodology. 
 

Finally, I do agree with the point many have made that the lack of scoring runs is awful and increases the level of difficulty for a manager. As the level of difficulty increases, the chance for more mistakes rises. 

[RLTW894]

Everyone uses analytics. It's a must these days. But everyone uses analytics. Managers still have to use their brains. The players are not robots. That's where having a strategic mind and deeply knowing and understanding your players comes in. Why do we even need Rocco if all he ever does is stick to the data? Rocco is truly a nice guy. But he has nada of a strategic baseball mind.

His decisions the last 10 games of last year showed me he lacks the right stuff. The only way he ever wins a World Series is if a team gives him the best players at every position. 

Even something simple as the lineup, Rocco costs the Twins 10-15 games each year with this alone. Was he not paying attention in spring training? Carlos is keeping a nagging injury a secret. Hello. Know your guys. Geesh.

The best managers have to know the analytics, but then need to know when to adjust. That skill is what makes the mediocre average guys into great ones.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Twinsoholic said:

Mike Sixel writes: “We should have pilots fly without data too! They never used to use it.

Maybe computers and phones should stop using data.”

Mike, I almost always find myself enjoying your posts. You bring a lot of passion to the threads. I have quoted you because I don’t think anyone is saying jettison data, i.e., drop so-called modern analytics. No one is advocating that Rocco embrace vestigial strategies for, say, Rounders when people post criticisms of Rocco’s decision to have Sands come in for Ober. Speaking only for myself, I am saying that unless there was a medical reason for pulling Ober after 6 innings (or unless Ober told Rocco that Ober felt he was running out of gas), then not letting Ober pitch the 7th against the bottom of the KC order is super puzzling. We have, arguably, an overworked bullpen, so getting effective starters to pitch past the 6th inning would appear to be desirable. From my admittedly limited perspective, Rocco made two blunders in Tuesday’s and yesterday’s games. He comes across to me, speaking for no one else, as consistently mechanical. Perhaps there is much more improvisation with Rocco than meets the eye. Perhaps, however, his level of managerial mojo and intuition are not that deep. Perhaps he is just super comfortable with one overriding methodology. 
 

Finally, I do agree with the point many have made that the lack of scoring runs is awful and increases the level of difficulty for a manager. As the level of difficulty increases, the chance for more mistakes rises. 

I think it is 100% fair to disagree with the decision. But this board is anti science and math over and over 

"just replace him with a computer" is a common refrain. 

But, I get it! I really do. I just think a lot of posts here (and in this thread) are misguided at best, and insulting on their face. (not yours! yours is well thought an well written).

I have no idea what Rocco is really like in his interactions or decision making. I just don't.

I do think, however, that this isn't working and a change should be made.

BTW, there were a few people in teh game thread ok with the move before teh outcome......(no idea why I type the as teh all the time, but I'm leaving it to show I'm HUMAN. :) ).

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, RLTW894 said:

Everyone uses analytics. It's a must these days. But everyone uses analytics. Managers still have to use their brains. The players are not robots. That's where having a strategic mind and deeply knowing and understanding your players comes in. Why do we even need Rocco if all he ever does is stick to the data? Rocco is truly a nice guy. But he has nada of a strategic baseball mind.

His decisions the last 10 games of last year showed me he lacks the right stuff. The only way he ever wins a World Series is if a team gives him the best players at every position. 

Even something simple as the lineup, Rocco costs the Twins 10-15 games each year with this alone. Was he not paying attention in spring training? Carlos is keeping a nagging injury a secret. Hello. Know your guys. Geesh.

The best managers have to know the analytics, but then need to know when to adjust. That skill is what makes the mediocre average guys into great ones.

You think the manager costs them 15 game a year in lineup construction alone? Unreal. If a manager was that powerful, they'd get paid a lot more. A lot more. 

[RLTW894]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think the manager costs them 15 game a year in lineup construction alone? Unreal. If a manager was that powerful, they'd get paid a lot more. A lot more. 

100%. I'm not asking for a Rocco pay raise. I'm asking he be fired. He should have been fired after last season. He absolutely without question costs games with his bone head lineup decisions. Go back and count how many times Kepler batted 4th last season. Unreal. That's only 1 small point. Don't even get me started with Roccos unwillingness to steal bases. A hitter is on a 14 game hitting streak, on fire, hasn't slowed down, and Rocco replaced him with a guy batting .180 and this is getting closer to mid season.

Damn right Rocco costs games.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, RLTW894 said:

100%. I'm not asking for a Rocco pay raise. I'm asking he be fired. He should have been fired after last season. He absolutely without question costs games with his bone head lineup decisions. Go back and count how many times Kepler batted 4th last season. Unreal. That's only 1 small point. Don't even get me started with Roccos unwillingness to steal bases. A hitter is on a 14 game hitting streak, on fire, hasn't slowed down, and Rocco replaced him with a guy batting .180 and this is getting closer to mid season.

Damn right Rocco costs games.

If managers had that much influence on outcomes, they'd be paid like Aaron Judge.

[RLTW894]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

If managers had that much influence on outcomes, they'd be paid like Aaron Judge.

No they wouldn't. That's a dumb argument. The best manager will never get paid like a star player. What winning will get them, is a long career and not being fired for effing up.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, RLTW894 said:

No they wouldn't. That's a dumb argument. The best manager will never get paid like a star player. What winning will get them, is a long career and not being fired for effing up.

If the best manager is 20-30 games better than Rocco, he's 100% getting paid hundreds of millions. 

[RLTW894]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If the best manager is 20-30 games better than Rocco, he's 100% getting paid hundreds of millions. 

You are so far out in left field the Metro took you for a ride down to CHS Field. 

A good manager gets the most out of his players. The players win games. Not the manager. But you better believe a bad manager can cost wins. 

[twinstalker]

 

 

 

Quote

If Ober allowed even one baserunner, the top of the Royals' order—Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinny Pasquantino—would be looming for a fourth look at Ober. That simply wasn't going to happen.

I'm sure it's been said more than once, but Ober is still allowed to come out of the game even if he allowed a baserunner, right?

[Aerodeliria]

10 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I highly, highly doubt this to be a true statement, I mean maybe a couple of people that complain no matter what, I think the discussion would be more about how every Twins player gets hurt not leaving Ober in.

Statements like this (and this article) just runs cover for bad decisions. 

...and not only that, if Ober spoke to his manager about getting tired or winded, Baldelli would have been quick to mention it in the post-game excuse video, so that reasoning is faulty. 

[laloesch]

11 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

Regardless of the outcome, getting 18 outs out of Ober yesterday should have been the minimum of what he pitched yesterday. He was 2024 Ober yesterday and when the 3 at the front of your rotation are pitching like he was yesterday, 18 outs has be the goal.

The Twins lost because the offense is awful through 13 games; a real lack of power and hitting for average. Twins have never been a team that's built to run. 

6 at home with Detroit and the Mets..........April is looking like a long month.

And if they aren’t careful they will be done midway through May possibly earlier if they don’t turn this ship around 

[D.C Twins]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If managers had that much influence on outcomes, they'd be paid like Aaron Judge.

Nope.... no manager has ever been able to be the 'face of a franchise' and drive marketing campaigns.... never have or will be paid like a star player

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If managers had that much influence on outcomes, they'd be paid like Aaron Judge.

Stop it. Thats utter nonsense. 

 

[dxpavelka]

On 4/11/2025 at 7:08 AM, Twinsoholic said:

Matthew Taylor writes: “But while we’ll never know how things might have gone had Ober stayed in to start the seventh, Baldelli’s choice was grounded in real data, recent performance, and a desire to avoid worst-case scenarios. You might not like the outcome, but the process had logic behind it.”

 

The ghost of Earl Weaver says Big Deal if there was “real data” contextualizing Baldelli’s decision to remove Ober. Weaver also relied on “real data” when he guided the Orioles, counting on his starting pitchers’ athletic ability to pitch deep into games (and be super successful). 
 

We live in an age of fetishization of “real data,” the rhetoric of numbers, so I assume Baldelli will remain consistent in his anti-Weaverian approach. Perhaps Sands will do better next time—I am sure he will get a lot of similar chances. 

Hope those future chances work out better.

 

[Mike Sixel]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Stop it. Thats utter nonsense. 

 

If a manager can help win twenty more games, they are worth piles of gold. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Nope.... no manager has ever been able to be the 'face of a franchise' and drive marketing campaigns.... never have or will be paid like a star player

Marketing? U think if a manager could take a seventy win team to a ninety win team, he'd not be PAID?