Wait. Could Bailey Ober Really Win the 2025 AL Cy Young?

[Eric Blonigen]

What do Tarik Skubal, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Corey Kluber, Rick Porcello, and Dallas Keuchel have in common? Does Bailey Ober belong in that company?

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Athletic staff recently predicted who they believe will win the major baseball awards this season. Grant Brisbee, the Giants’ beat writer for The Athletic, opined that Bailey Ober will win the 2025 AL Cy Young award. None of the other nine panelists agreed with his pick. Is there something there, and could Ober take that kind of a step forward?

Before you tell me that’s just homerism, what if I told you that MLB.com also listed Ober as a dark horse candidate for the award? Maybe it’s actually a little bit credible. We know Ober has elite extension, great control and command, strikes a ton of guys out, and has a great presence on the mound. We know he’s a very good pitcher. But is he elite? And can he get there? There's certainly a lot of red on his Savant page.

What’s the Target?
To know whether this is even remotely realistic, it’s important to establish what type of results typically get a hurler the top spot from the BBWAA writers. Let’s start by looking at the past ten seasons’ winners. If you create the average Cy Young winner, you are looking for a season of roughly the following: 6.32 bWAR, 220 strikeouts, a 2.36 ERA, and 208 innings pitched. That seems like a good target.

What have Ober’s best seasons looked like in each of those categories so far? Ober’s 2023 season was best by bWAR, at 3.1. That’s about halfway there. In 2024, he struck out 191 which isn’t too far off of the 220 strikeout goal. In 2022, he finished the season with a 3.21 ERA. In 2024, his expected ERA was a nearly-identical 3.22. That’s good, but that’s still almost a full run worse than an average Cy Young winner. 2024 was also his high-water mark in innings pitched, with 178-2/3 logged. That’s not super far off from the average award winner.

Ok, with all that in mind, we are looking for Ober to find about 30 strikeouts across 30 extra innings, to avoid clunker starts, and to reduce his ERA by a full run over his strongest seasons. That…seems like a lot. But it’s certainly not impossible. What would have to go right for Ober to take a big enough step forward to show legit dominance?

Pitch Mix and Sequencing
To begin with (and honestly, maybe this alone would do it), he needs to improve his results against righties. For his career, Ober allows roughly 50 additional points of slugging to same-sided hitters. This is not uncommon for pitchers that throw a great changeup, and Ober’s is certainly that. In fact, it’s his best pitch by far, worth 16 runs in 2024. It’s a true out pitch. When he pairs it with his middling but effective fastball while mixing in a curveball and slider, he’s death to lefties; he had a .592 OPS against them last season. But, he can’t throw this combo to righties or he gets downright average results, to the tune of a .703 OPS in 2024.

Luckily, his second-best pitch, his slider, can be thrown to right-handed hitters to get outs. But, he needs a quality offering to set that up, and his fastball/change combo doesn’t get it done. The shape of those pitches is too dissimilar from the slider, and hitters have an easier time of recognizing what’s coming to them and can sit fastball to do damage. If only Ober threw a pitch that could potentially trick lefty batters until it was too late to use their A swing. A sinker maybe.

What if I told you that Ober has been using a new sinker throughout spring training this year? And what if I told you the movement characteristics of that pitch pair somewhat nicely with his slider?

That’s an interesting development, to be certain. Now, pitchers experiment with new pitches all the time in the spring. Often, it’s just tinkering, and the new offerings are abandoned in the Florida or Arizona heat. In this case, though, it could certainly be deliberate. If he throws even a few of these sinkers in his start on Sunday, then this could be a very interesting season for him.

The last piece around pitch mix and sequencing: Ober allows an elite batting average against. In fact, it’s virtually identical to Dylan Cease and Tarik Skubal. You know, Cy Young-caliber pitchers. But, a few too many of Ober’s hits go yard. In fact, his Pull AIR% is fifth-worst among starting pitchers that faced at least 500 batters last season. If Ober can cut down on pitches that can easily be pulled up, he’s instantly one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Avoiding Clunker Starts
Look, when you are 6’9”, sometimes your mechanics are going to be a bit off. Honestly, there’s not a ton that can be done about that. And, Ober doesn't have more blowups than other Twins starters. However, there may be one type of clunker start that can be solved for. Over the past two seasons, three of Ober’s four worst starts have come against the Royals, to the tune of 20 runs across 10-1/3 innings.

It’s possible that’s just weird, small sample size noise. More likely, the Royals have something on him. That is for the coaching staff to figure out. But, that alone could help make progress in all of those target categories above.

Putting this all together, we are talking about tweaks rather than wholesale changes: add a usable setup pitch for righties, figure out what the Royals have on him, and cut down on the homers if possible. While all of these are easier said than done, they are all feasible adjustments. If even a couple of these go right, it does seem like Ober has a legitimate path to receiving some Cy Young votes. But, he will still face some tough competition.

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[Karbo]

Ober for CY award? Well, anything is possible, but I would say that's a mile long shot. I certainly wouldn't put money on it. Now, I hope he makes me eat my words!

[Whitey333]

It would be interesting but not very realistic.  Just like the Twins team as a whole everything would have to magically be near perfect for Ober to win the Cy Young award. He definitely can be the Twins ace.  Best of luck to Bailey.  Go Twins!

[mikelink45]

No - and Ryan and Lopez are no's too.  I just want them to pitch well and take us to the playoffs.  Cy Young pitchers have something really special about them.  At this point I do not see that trait.  I think Grant just wanted to be different - and good for him.  

[Fezig]

Of all pitchers on the squad, I'd say he's shown the most consistency (positive) and if he can improve on that he's certainly Cy Young discussion,.

[Fatbat]

Well the list of top pitchers, stats wise includes him so if he limits his blow up games, he could be absolutely dominating with his pinpoint control. 
Ober in his prime and grinding out 6 2/3 innings per appearance ave works well for his CY chances.

Lopez and Ryan are probably in the same boat.  Hopefully they try to out do each other and all 3 have career best seasons. Stack those wins young men!

[Patzky]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

No - and Ryan and Lopez are no's too.  I just want them to pitch well and take us to the playoffs.  Cy Young pitchers have something really special about them.  At this point I do not see that trait.  I think Grant just wanted to be different - and good for him.  

Gee Pablo Castillo and Skubal and were all human this week. Crochet? 

[FargoFanMan]

Reports were he was struggling to even hit 90-91. He attributed it to mechanics but that doesn’t bode well either way. He’s very consistent I agree but if he’s out of whack with his mechanics and only throwing 88-89 he’s gotta figure it out to contend for a cy young. Pablo looked ok the other day. I’m more excited to see Joe Ryan today. I think if he takes another step as he seems to do he could be a force.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Ober for CY award? Well, anything is possible, but I would say that's a mile long shot. I certainly wouldn't put money on it. Now, I hope he makes me eat my words!

Vegas Insider has Ober's Cy Young odds at 60-1

[Parfigliano]

Does Ober get to skip pitching against KC in his Cy Young quest?

[FargoFanMan]

10 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Does Ober get to skip pitching against KC in his Cy Young quest?

He’ll win the CY if he skips his KC starts and only pitches against The A’s.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Well, thanks a lot.  That will certainly doom him in tomorrow's start against the Cardinals!

It's not outside the realm of possibilities that he could contend for a Cy Young award, but it's a pretty long shot at this point.  Right now, I just hope he can get his delivery and velocity ironed out for the season to start because if he doesn't do that, he becomes "former Twins pitcher" Bailey Ober. 

[gunnarthor]

No, they give the Cy Young to good pitchers. Great click bait though.

[joefish]

Aren't they all darkhorses? Every team has a bullpen full of dark horses. 

Not that there is anything wrong  with that.

GoOber

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Gee Pablo Castillo and Skubal and were all human this week. Crochet? 

Lucky it is based on an entire season.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

All he has to do is increase his innings and strikeouts 15% and decrease his clunkers 75% from his best season in the bigs while not allowing his other variables change significantly.

piece of cake, I wonder why he hasn’t done it yet?

[Squirrel]

Honestly, of all our pitchers I think he might have the best shot to be that pitcher, whether he does it this year or another. But, that’s not really saying much.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

No, they give the Cy Young to good pitchers. Great click bait though.

I’d be curious about what you think a good pitcher is, if Bailey Over isn’t one. He was a top-40 pitcher in baseball last season.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

17 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

I’d be curious about what you think a good pitcher is, if Bailey Over isn’t one. He was a top-40 pitcher in baseball last season.

He absolutely was a very good pitcher in 23 and 24, and probably was more of a top 30 pitcher in ‘24. Agreed he does have the Twins best shot at it for Twins starters. But let’s be realistic here. The difference between number 5 and 30 is bigger than the difference between 30 and 55.

[bean5302]

No chance in hell a #4 rotation arm wins the Cy Young these days. This is an absolutely stupid debate. The day Statcast Run Values and things like "extension" factor into Cy Young, I quit watching baseball.


 

[Craig Arko]

Does he play on either coast? Odds are slim, then.

[bean5302]

13 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Does he play on either coast? Odds are slim, then.

Not sure what you're implying, but I think it's writers have a bias towards LAD/NYY? There is none of that I can really see. Since Falvey took over, 5 of 16 Cy Youngs have been awarded to AL Central or NL Central pitchers (right on average). Only 6 of the 16 went to East or West Coast teams.

**Tarik Skubal DET
Chris Sale ATL
Gerrit Cole NYY
Blake Snell SDP
Justin Verlander HOU
Sandy Alcantara MIA
Robbie Ray TOR
**Corbin Burnes MIL
**Shane Bieber CLE
**Trevor Bauer CIN
Justin Verlander HOU
Jacob deGrom NYM
Blake Snell TBR
Jacob deGrom NYM
**Corey Kluber CLE
Max Scherzer WAS

[old nurse]

Cy Young award winners usually have a WAR over 5 unless it is a league wide down year.  Just like Ryan, for Ober to be in contention for the Cy he would have to increase his K%, decrease his walk % and give up about 1/3 less home runs.   That will get their ERA below 3, which they haven’t done for a season, Easy peasy 

[dxpavelka]

Ober, Lopez & Ryan are all among the top dozen SP in the AL.  Any of them could win it.  Will probably come down to performance.  Just a guess.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Cy Young award winners usually have a WAR over 5 unless it is a league wide down year.  Just like Ryan, for Ober to be in contention for the Cy he would have to increase his K%, decrease his walk % and give up about 1/3 less home runs.   That will get their ERA below 3, which they haven’t done for a season, Easy peasy 

So in other words, they need to have a career type year where everything clicks and comes together to a degree that maybe only happens once.  You're right.  Something like that has NEVER happened in the history of baseball. 

[Linus]

I really like Ober.  He is a solidly top 25% pitcher in the big leagues.  However his margin for error is so much smaller than the dominant starters in the league.  He can cruise through a lineup most of the time but when he isn’t right he can get pounded.  I’m satisfied having him with the Twins as is.

[DocBauer]

I absolutely love Ober. He's damn good. But he's more consistent than dominating. (He does throw dominate games fairly often).

Lopez is the best option for a possible Cy Young winner. After a somewhat slow/mediocre start to 2023, he was a Cy Young candidate and receieved votes. He was less dialed in for 2024, but threw almost as well for about half the season. If he can be the 2023 version of himself, with a little earlier peak in performance, he could be a real contender.

Ryan just has a "something" that's hard to define because he's increased his velocity, tweaked his secondary stuff, offers up a weird delivery level that confuses batters, CAN dominate, but then had a couple clunker games where his location is off. A FULL SEASON of Ryan COULD put him in the Cy Young candidacy. 

What befuddles me is those who look at the top 3 and call any of them #4 starters, or worse. Based on the last 2yrs and the numbers presented of rankings across MLB, the Twins have a front 3 that all rank amongst the top SP in MLB as a collective. On most any teams each is a #2 starter, and a #3 at worst for almost any team in the league. And all 3 throw like a #1 at times.

Personally, any Cy Young worthy season is AWESOME. But all I care about is wins, and getting to the playoffs. I've always said, give me 3 #2's and a couple good #4-5 starters and a solid pen and lineup and I'm good. Awards don't mean ultimate success of the team.

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

So in other words, they need to have a career type year where everything clicks and comes together to a degree that maybe only happens once.  You're right.  Something like that has NEVER happened in the history of baseball. 

Robbie Ray, Porchello, R.A Dickey were one year wonders, Juechel and Arrietta had 2 great years in a row. My post had nothing to do with career years. It was a simple statement of fact that to get to the elite levels Ober and Ryan have to lower the HR/9, BB%, and increase K%. I would also contend that they would have to be a lot better than the pedigree pitchers as the career years might be construed as luck 

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I absolutely love Ober...

...What befuddles me is those who look at the top 3 and call any of them #4 starters, or worse...

Quoted sentence 1 is the reason why you have the problem with quoted sentence 2.

Twins fans often look like complete homer morons on national sites and I've had to endure more than a couple taunting sessions when fans from around the nation make jokes at the rampant Twins homerism projecting random bit player fan favorites into lofty championship trophy contenders. 

It sounds all harmless, but it's really just extreme disrespect for the players who truly are the best in the game. No amount of logic or reason or comparisons are allowed around here when it comes to some random try hard underdog here at TD.

[LeatherAntenna]

Watching Ober today through 40 pitches and I’m thinking this story needs some serious editing.