Are the Twins the Most Improved Team in the AL Central This Winter?

[Cody Christie]

Twins fans have been clamoring for the front office to do something this winter. With the team’s recent additions, is Minnesota the most improved team in the AL Central this winter? (It's not as crazy as it sounds.)

Image courtesy of Colt Keith (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images), Jose Ramirez (© David Dermer-Imagn Images), Bobby Witt Jr (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images), Royce Lewis (© Peter Aiken-Imagn Images), Andrew Vaughn (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

Many fans can get hyper-focused on their favorite team and not see how other rosters are improving around the baseball world (outside of the Dodgers and the Monopoly money they have been throwing around this winter, that is). Projection systems had the Twins with the AL’s fourth-best roster entering the winter, because of the organizational depth at many positions. There were still needs for the Twins to fill, and Minnesota’s front office has patiently waited for the market to play itself out before signing left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe and outfielder Harrison Bader. Those moves might seem like minimal additions, but they put the Twins in contention for the AL Central’s most improved team. 

Minnesota Twins
November Projected WAR: 44.5
February Projected WAR: 44.8 (+0.3 WAR)
The Twins saw outfielder Max Kepler, first baseman Carlos Santana, and infielder Kyle Farmer leave in free agency, but the team already had replacements for that value on the roster. Adding Bader as a platoon option for Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach helps, but his most significant added value comes as insurance in center field for Byron Buxton. The Twins hope Buxton can play 100 games for the second consecutive season, but there are no guarantees. Coulombe fits the left-handed bullpen role for the Twins, but isn’t a significant upgrade for a bullpen that was projected to be baseball’s best. 

Kansas City Royals
November Projected WAR: 40.8
February Projected WAR: 39.4 (-1.4 WAR)
Entering the offseason, Kansas City had the second-highest projected WAR among AL Central clubs, but the team has gotten worse this winter. The Royals' free agent list included shortstop Paul DeJong, second baseman Adam Frazier, and pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Michael Wacha. Wacha and Lorenzen have already re-signed with the club. Righty Kyle Wright, acquired last winter, is returning from shoulder surgery but will likely be on an innings limit. In November, Kansas City traded right-handed starter Brady Singer to Cincinnati for second baseman Jonathan India and left fielder Joey Wiemer. Last season, the Royals surprised many with their run to the playoffs, but the team has some clear holes in the lineup, and Bobby Witt Jr. can only take the team so far.

Cleveland Guardians
November Projected WAR: 39.6
February Projected WAR: 38.1 (-1.5 WAR)
Cleveland seems to always be in contention for the AL Central title, and their front office has spent the winter shuffling roster pieces to fit inside the team’s budgetary constraints. Entering the winter, the team’s top free agents were starters Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb. Bieber re-signed with Cleveland, but Cobb jumped over to Detroit. The Guardians have also traded away first baseman Josh Naylor, second baseman Andrés Giménez, and righty reliever Nick Sandlin, which takes away significant value. Cleveland also re-signed Austin Hedges, brought back Carlos Santana after his latest sojourns elsewhere, and added Paul Sewald to replace some projected WAR. On paper, the Guardians are a worse team than last year, but that hasn’t stopped them from contending in previous seasons. 

Detroit Tigers
November Projected WAR: 37.5
February Projected WAR: 40.7 (+3.2 WAR)
The Tigers had few players leave the team in free agency this winter, which helped the club start at a high point. The team’s most significant offseason additions have been signing starter Jack Flaherty, second baseman Gleyber Torres, Cobb, and reliever Tommy Kahnle. Starting pitching and infield depth were two of the team’s most significant needs entering the offseason, so the Torres and Cobb deals significantly raised the club’s projected WAR total. Alex Bregman is still a free agent, and Detroit could become the AL Central favorites if their ownership is willing to give the star third baseman a long-term deal. 

Chicago White Sox
November Projected WAR: 24.3
February Projected WAR: 23.0 (-1.3 WAR)
The White Sox had a free agent list that included hurlers Mike Clevinger and Chris Flexen and third baseman Yoán Moncada. Chicago’s roster is significantly flawed, and the 2025 season is shaping up to be another rough year on the South Side. The most significant loss in WAR this winter was the team trading their ace, left starter Garret Crochet, to the Boston Red Sox for a package of four players. Chicago is bad and will be rebuilding for multiple seasons.

Minnesota’s minor moves have not significantly improved the team, but the club’s roster was already starting from a higher point than the rest of the AL Central. Detroit has seen the most significant projected WAR increase, which can help a club that finished ahead of the Twins in 2024. The other three AL Central teams have gotten worse this winter, which might help Minnesota find a way back to the top of the division.

---

Do you agree with the projected WAR totals? Are the Twins the clear favorite in the AL Central? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Jocko87]

But I'm reliably informed that there is no path to a passing grade this off-season. 🤣

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

IF, and it is a gargantuan if, the Twins stay healthy, they are good enough to win the division.

[tony&rodney]

One of these years all the games will be played via holograms based on WAR and a host of other statistics or is that MLB The Show? Until then I guess we will need to watch each season to see who wins and who loses.

[Mike Frasier Law]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

But I'm reliably informed that there is no path to a passing grade this off-season. 🤣

 

I think these can be consistent. We have/had an opportunity to do something big this offseason and make us massive favorites in the division. We’re not going to thus the failing grade. 
 

we slightly improved our already good roster while everyone else save the Tigers got worse. Thus we are in the running for the most improved. 

[TheLeviathan]

I expected a vigorous argument that Bader > Torres.

No?  Oh right...because the notion that it's not the Tigers is preposterous.

[Cody Christie]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

But I'm reliably informed that there is no path to a passing grade this off-season. 🤣

 

The article you linked above was based on national outlets putting out grades for the offseason. When I wrote that article, most of the discussion around the Twins was that they would need to trade away a player before they had any payroll space to add anything. I can only write based on the available information and reports at that time had the team with little or no money to spend. I don't think many people saw the Twins spending nearly $10 million in free agency. 

Thankfully, that has not come to fruition and they have been able to make two small additions. According to WAR projections, neither player moved the needle a lot for the team's overall WAR. However, it has added depth which will help when injuries arise. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think the Twins have had the 2nd best offseason in the division. Detroit added Flaherty and Cobb to the rotation, Kahnle to the bullpen, and Torres to the IF. They are really improved on the pitching side (Torres is a meh addition) and now can run out Skubal, Flaherty and Cobb for a 3 game series. That's better than our top 3 because Skubal is probably the #1 or #2 starter in the American League depending on Gerrit Cole's health and Lopez = Flaherty. The bullpens are pretty similar, maybe ours a little better, and the Twins hit a little better last year but the Tigers have some guys coming back from injury sop they may hit better than we do in 2925. 

I predict the Central to be a very close race this year. My guess is that it will be won by Detroit with 90-92 wins, followed by the Twins at 86-90, KC and Cleveland both at 82-87,  and the White Sox at below 70 wins. Frankly, all of the top 4 teams could finish 1st to 4th and win 82-92 games.  Should be an exciting year. 

[Doctor Gast]

You forgot we lost Margot, which was our greatest gain. Nothing this FO has done has moved the needle. Coloumbe might have helped a little, but the others have just occupied valuable roster spots.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cody Christie said:

However, it has added depth which will help when injuries arise. 

We could have just brought back Farmer and Margot as added depth. Same, same.

[Whitey333]

Well I'm glad they added a couple of players finally but they are very marginal indeed.  Although they just spent $10 million on free agents (chump change in the scheme of things) they are very likely going to wind up dumping that amount and probably more through trades upcoming.  They still have a chance to move the needle buy it hasn't moved yet.

[Gamblerssoftball]

It's starting to look like a trade is coming. My guess is that two or three guys on the 40 man roster will be moved for either Cease or Mountcastle. Or something like that. I'm pretty sure we're not done with the 26 man roster.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To the title of the article, no, the Tigers added the most 2025 projected WAR since November.

After reading the article, yes the Twins currently (Feb 6) have the highest 2025 projected WAR.

[Blyleven2011]

Cory , I've got to say you are the most enthusiastic twins daily writer , it's good to have enthusiastic twins fans ...

Reality says the twins haven't had the 2nd best off season , but it could change before the season starts ...

We signed coloumbe as a bullpen lefty and he's had some years of success  , Bader will give us depth covering the defense in the outfield , it would be helpful to the twins if he could hit around 250 ...

Let's take a look at the hitters , the streaky hitters that is  , 2023 it took half the season before the hitting materialized for a divisional win ...

2024 they were once again asleep at the wheel for a month  , May through July they raked and then August through September they took the field and did not come to play  ...

If the FO thinks that is going to change overnight with 3 new hitting coaches , then once again they are living on hope ...

Projections are nice on paper but they still have to take the field and come to play ...

Pitching will keep us in alot of games , but the twins will lose alot of 1 run games if our hitters get just 3 hits a game ...

Again pitching is our strength and our hitters and defense are a concern until they're not , they didn't improve the lineup with the addition of Bader , they helped the defense in the outfield  is all ...

Still sticking with my prediction of the twins finishing 3rd or 4th in the division with royals and Tigers , the team's to beat , I really don't know how Cleveland does it , they are a beatable team but they win with less quality then most teams ...

 

[chpettit19]

I do think the Twins are the 2nd most improved team in the division to this point of the offseason. KC and Cleveland subtracted to add and I'm not sold that they added more than they subtracted (I'm not huge on WAR but I agree with the general numbers provided). Detroit did all their subtracting at the deadline last year. They subtracted all their average at best vets (and Flaherty, to be fair). Torres is a real player. Not star, but better than Bader or Coulombe. So, him alone gives the Tigers the best offseason, but they also added Flaherty back on top of that. And if they add Bregman as they're reported to be trying to do they'll be the clear favorite in the division even though they have some real question marks on their roster like the rest of the division.

I didn't expect KC and Detroit to beat the Twins last year, but my prediction now is the same as it was then, the Central is anyone's (not Chicago) to be won. It's not the pushover division it was the last handful of years. It's also not full of juggernauts. All of these teams have real questions in multiple spots on their rosters. But Detroit is the only team making real additions and not making subtractions. The Twins aren't subtracting, but they're not making real additions while KC and Cleveland made real additions but also subtracted. Detroit is the clear winner of the offseason as of 4:30 central time on 2/6. But winning the offseason doesn't mean you'll win the season. It's wide open for any of the 4 to win. I won't be surprised by any order those 4 teams end up in. Unless one of them ends up below Chicago. That would surprise me.

[AlLagoon]

I did a double take this wasn't RandBall Stu. 

How have they improved? By doing next to nothing?

[twinstalker]

My goodness.

[Mark G]

Think about it this way:  I am in school with 3 of my friends.  In the 1st semester my one friend got a B+, two others got a B, and I got a C.  2nd semester comes and each one of us tries to do better, but my friend with the B+ drops to a B-, one friend with the B goes to a B+, the last one stays at a B, and I rise to a B-.  I rose the most from where we all started, but should I be bragging?  😏

(My analogy is based on where we finished in the standings, and the belief that KC didn't drop as much as Projection Systems has them). 😉

[Doctor Gast]

13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Still sticking with my prediction of the twins finishing 3rd or 4th in the division with royals and Tigers , the team's to beat , I really don't know how Cleveland does it , they are a beatable team but they win with less quality then most teams ...

They do this by evaluating, drafting, developing & then trusting their unproven young player to get the job done. I'd like the Twins to start doing this if anything that Falvey had brought over from CLE this would be it. & if they have any extra money, I wish they extend our foundational young players, not throw it away on FA.

[Doctor Wu]

No way are the Twins the most improved team in the division. Even factoring in projections and WAR and whatever sort of metric you like, the Twins  haven't done nearly enough to improve the team. I have somewhat high hopes that the Twins WILL be better this season, but that's only based on key players NOT going on the IL and perhaps some rookies making a positive impact at some point. But any expectations for improvement are not due to any moves that the front office has made thus far. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

They do this by evaluating, drafting, developing & then trusting their unproven young player to get the job done. I'd like the Twins to start doing this if anything that Falvey had brought over from CLE this would be it. & if they have any extra money, I wish they extend our foundational young players, not throw it away on FA.

What is one sure fire way to keep payroll low(er), never let your prospects hit FA in their prime. If they can hold off ERod one more year and the other big two a couple of years, their earning power goes down.

Now a smart team with get Jenkins and Keaschall up as soon as possible and quickly signed them to a couple year extension, buying out their prime years or you can hold them back and say they need more seasoning.

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the Twins have had the 2nd best offseason in the division. Detroit added Flaherty and Cobb to the rotation, Kahnle to the bullpen, and Torres to the IF. They are really improved on the pitching side (Torres is a meh addition) and now can run out Skubal, Flaherty and Cobb for a 3 game series. That's better than our top 3 because Skubal is probably the #1 or #2 starter in the American League depending on Gerrit Cole's health and Lopez = Flaherty. The bullpens are pretty similar, maybe ours a little better, and the Twins hit a little better last year but the Tigers have some guys coming back from injury sop they may hit better than we do in 2925. 

I predict the Central to be a very close race this year. My guess is that it will be won by Detroit with 90-92 wins, followed by the Twins at 86-90, KC and Cleveland both at 82-87,  and the White Sox at below 70 wins. Frankly, all of the top 4 teams could finish 1st to 4th and win 82-92 games.  Should be an exciting year. 

They are also adding a third pitcher Jackson Jobe who is one of the top MLB prospects which gives them potentially three pitchers in the 1 - 2 range.  That is a part of their rise in expectations.  

[LambchoP]

I like the Coulombe signing, but Bader is just a depth move. Unless we make a trade to acquire a first baseman or Dylan Cease, I think anyone besides CHI could win this division.

[mikelink45]

This just seems ridiculous.  They way the Twins improve is not Gaspar, Bader, and Coloume or the rule V pickup or the catcher the Dodgers no longer want in their system.  Our path to improvement is Buxton, Correa, Lewis staying healthy, Lewis regaining his earlier form, Lee and Julien improving their performance, Miranda discovering a full year of batting ability, DH and 1B becoming positives, Jeffers making a full season of production.  Lopez discovering that he is an Ace and pitching like that.  Our BP living up to their rating for the full year.

mlb.com projects these prospects for 2025

37. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF (ETA: 2025)
61. Luke Keaschall, 2B/OF/1B (ETA: 2025).

I hope we don't trade them or block them.  

As to the others - Detroit now has a three man top of the rotation in Jackson, Skubal, Flaherty. They added Kahnle to the BP, Torres improves a team that had to rely on Baez too much.  They have a good manager who knows how to use his players 

1. Riley Greene, OF

2. Parker Meadows, CF

3. Kerry Carpenter, OF/DH

4. Colt Keith, 2B/1B

5. Matt Vierling, 3B/OF

6. Jake Rogers, C

7. Spencer Torkelson, 1B/DH

8. Trey Sweeney, IF

9. Gleyber Torres, IF

 

We always underestimate the Guardians - they are not splashy, they traded away Naylor which I do not understand.  They did keep Ramirez who is spectacular but they also lost Giminez who was a great fielder.  Kwan is another star with Ramirez.  They are our divisions Tampa Bay Rays - always seeming to have a better record than their roster projects and I would not discount them.  

The other Naylor (that they kept) with Lane Thomas, Manzardo, and Fry have potential to be good. 

MLB.com projects these prospects to be good offensively and will arrive in 2025 for the Guardians: 10. Travis Bazzana, 2B (ETA: 2025)
36. Chase DeLauter, OF (ETA: 2025)

Bibee, Bieber and Clase give them three pitching studs.  Projections are all over the board - competing with Twins, competing with the White Sox - who knows.  But like the Twins their acquisitions and trades have not looked that good so far and based on their recent year activities I do not expect much more to happen.

The Royals are interesting - they surprised the league last year and Bobby Witt, Jr is really amazing and so is Salvador Perez.  There starting rotation begins with Ragans and Lugo, but Wacha, Bubic, and Lorenzen fill out the full list giving them a chance to match the Twins depending on both teams health.

Pasquatino and India are good players and give the lineup some opportunities.  I look at Isabel, Melendez, Garcia and Renfroe and I have no idea what to expect, but I think KC fans are looking at Julien, Lee, Miranda Jeffers with the same puzzled feeling.

MLB.com has a roster of the best rookie prospect at each position and KC has First base: Jac Caglianone.   It would require some reshuffling, but he is the only central division player on they list so he could be a big help (ps - the Twins could use a good 1B).

The White Sox are not in the conversation for best in the division but they do have two impact rookies for 2025 - 16. Noah Schultz, LHP (ETA: 2025)
32. Kyle Teel, C (ETA: 2025)

My prediction based on what we have now is:

Detroit

Twins 

Guardians

KC

Chicago 

But this is such a random division that the top four could finish in any order and health will be the big determiner.