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Many fans can get hyper-focused on their favorite team and not see how other rosters are improving around the baseball world (outside of the Dodgers and the Monopoly money they have been throwing around this winter, that is). Projection systems had the Twins with the AL’s fourth-best roster entering the winter, because of the organizational depth at many positions. There were still needs for the Twins to fill, and Minnesota’s front office has patiently waited for the market to play itself out before signing left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe and outfielder Harrison Bader. Those moves might seem like minimal additions, but they put the Twins in contention for the AL Central’s most improved team.
Minnesota Twins
November Projected WAR: 44.5
February Projected WAR: 44.8 (+0.3 WAR)
The Twins saw outfielder Max Kepler, first baseman Carlos Santana, and infielder Kyle Farmer leave in free agency, but the team already had replacements for that value on the roster. Adding Bader as a platoon option for Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach helps, but his most significant added value comes as insurance in center field for Byron Buxton. The Twins hope Buxton can play 100 games for the second consecutive season, but there are no guarantees. Coulombe fits the left-handed bullpen role for the Twins, but isn’t a significant upgrade for a bullpen that was projected to be baseball’s best.
Kansas City Royals
November Projected WAR: 40.8
February Projected WAR: 39.4 (-1.4 WAR)
Entering the offseason, Kansas City had the second-highest projected WAR among AL Central clubs, but the team has gotten worse this winter. The Royals' free agent list included shortstop Paul DeJong, second baseman Adam Frazier, and pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Michael Wacha. Wacha and Lorenzen have already re-signed with the club. Righty Kyle Wright, acquired last winter, is returning from shoulder surgery but will likely be on an innings limit. In November, Kansas City traded right-handed starter Brady Singer to Cincinnati for second baseman Jonathan India and left fielder Joey Wiemer. Last season, the Royals surprised many with their run to the playoffs, but the team has some clear holes in the lineup, and Bobby Witt Jr. can only take the team so far.
Cleveland Guardians
November Projected WAR: 39.6
February Projected WAR: 38.1 (-1.5 WAR)
Cleveland seems to always be in contention for the AL Central title, and their front office has spent the winter shuffling roster pieces to fit inside the team’s budgetary constraints. Entering the winter, the team’s top free agents were starters Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb. Bieber re-signed with Cleveland, but Cobb jumped over to Detroit. The Guardians have also traded away first baseman Josh Naylor, second baseman Andrés Giménez, and righty reliever Nick Sandlin, which takes away significant value. Cleveland also re-signed Austin Hedges, brought back Carlos Santana after his latest sojourns elsewhere, and added Paul Sewald to replace some projected WAR. On paper, the Guardians are a worse team than last year, but that hasn’t stopped them from contending in previous seasons.
Detroit Tigers
November Projected WAR: 37.5
February Projected WAR: 40.7 (+3.2 WAR)
The Tigers had few players leave the team in free agency this winter, which helped the club start at a high point. The team’s most significant offseason additions have been signing starter Jack Flaherty, second baseman Gleyber Torres, Cobb, and reliever Tommy Kahnle. Starting pitching and infield depth were two of the team’s most significant needs entering the offseason, so the Torres and Cobb deals significantly raised the club’s projected WAR total. Alex Bregman is still a free agent, and Detroit could become the AL Central favorites if their ownership is willing to give the star third baseman a long-term deal.
Chicago White Sox
November Projected WAR: 24.3
February Projected WAR: 23.0 (-1.3 WAR)
The White Sox had a free agent list that included hurlers Mike Clevinger and Chris Flexen and third baseman Yoán Moncada. Chicago’s roster is significantly flawed, and the 2025 season is shaping up to be another rough year on the South Side. The most significant loss in WAR this winter was the team trading their ace, left starter Garret Crochet, to the Boston Red Sox for a package of four players. Chicago is bad and will be rebuilding for multiple seasons.
Minnesota’s minor moves have not significantly improved the team, but the club’s roster was already starting from a higher point than the rest of the AL Central. Detroit has seen the most significant projected WAR increase, which can help a club that finished ahead of the Twins in 2024. The other three AL Central teams have gotten worse this winter, which might help Minnesota find a way back to the top of the division.
Do you agree with the projected WAR totals? Are the Twins the clear favorite in the AL Central? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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- DannySD and mikelink45
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