Ranking Last Year’s Twins Rookies on Projected 2025 Performance

[Cody Christie]

The Twins had a solid group of rookies impact the team last season. Which second-year players project to have the best season?

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins benefited from an exciting influx of rookie talent last season, with a mix of hitters and pitchers making meaningful contributions. As the team looks ahead to 2025, these second-year players face a critical career juncture with an opportunity to build on their early success and avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. Here’s a look at how these rookies project to perform in 2025, based on their ZiPS projections, and what Twins fans can expect as they mature into more prominent roles.

1. Brooks Lee, IF
2025 ZiPS: .245/.297/.377 (.674), 88 OPS+, 1.1 WAR, 428 PA  
The Twins’ top prospect entering last season, Lee showed flashes of his potential as a rookie. He doesn’t have the highest projected WAR among last year’s rookies, but he has the easiest path to a full-time role. While his offensive projection for 2025 doesn’t leap off the page, his defensive versatility and solid approach at the plate give him room to grow. Last season’s performance did not indicate his long-term value, as he fought through two injuries during the season.  Lee’s bat-to-ball skills and ability to adjust to big-league pitching will be critical as he looks to solidify his place in the Twins’ infield rotation.

2. David Festa, SP
2025 ZiPS: 4.08 ERA, 95 ERA+, 1.4 WAR, 108 IP  
Festa’s rookie season showcased his tantalizing upside, particularly his high-velocity fastball and swing-and-miss stuff. However, his ZiPS projection for 2025 highlights some areas for growth, particularly with consistency and command. He has the most significant upside of any of last year’s rookie pitchers, and that’s why he’s ranked highly on this list. There is a good chance he outperforms his ERA+, IP, and WAR totals listed above. If he can harness his raw tools, Festa could emerge as a key piece in the rotation behind Minnesota’s veteran trio at the top. 

3. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP
2025 ZiPS: 4.36 ERA, 95 ERA+, 1.4 WAR, 128 IP  
Woods Richardson showed promise in his rookie campaign, and his 2025 projection suggests he might face some regression. While his ERA and ERA+ are slightly below league average, his ability to eat innings and limit damage should keep him in the rotation. He is currently higher on the team’s depth chart, so he will be given more opportunities from the start of the season. If he can increase his strikeout rate and limit walks, Woods Richardson has the potential to outperform these projections.

4. DaShawn Keirsey Jr., OF
2025 ZiPS: .251/.309/.379 (.688), 93 OPS+, 2.0 WAR, 495 PA  
Keirsey projects to take a significant step forward in 2025 by providing most of his value in the outfield. His combination of athleticism and defensive ability gives him a high floor. While his bat doesn’t project to carry the lineup, his steady production should make him a key contributor. Keirsey’s speed and range in the outfield will be critical as the Twins look to solidify their defense. He likely won’t get a full-time role until a starter ends up on the IL, but that tends to happen especially with the Twins. With the highest WAR projection among last year’s rookies, Keirsey is primed to be a breakout player in his second season.

5. Zebby Matthews, SP
2025 ZiPS: 4.05 ERA, 103 ERA+, 1.8 WAR, 122 IP  
Matthews stands out among the rookie pitchers with his strong projection, highlighted by his above-average ERA+ and solid innings total. The Twins will likely rely on him to stabilize the back end of their rotation, but he sits behind multiple players on the depth chart. ZiPS loves his command and ability to induce weak contact, which sets him apart from his peers. If he can continue to refine his secondary pitches, Matthews could emerge as a dependable mid-rotation starter.

6. Austin Martin, UTL
2025 ZiPS: .240/.343/.329 (.672), 91 OPS+, 0.7 WAR, 395 PA  
Martin’s plate discipline remains his calling card, as evidenced by his strong OBP projection. However, his limited power output caps his overall offensive upside. As a utility player, Martin’s versatility will be an asset, allowing him to fill multiple positions, but he provided little defensive value last year. Martin could significantly raise his ceiling if he can tap into more extra-base power.

7. Jair Camargo, C
2025 ZiPS: .227/.282/.385 (.667), 86 OPS+, 1.2 WAR, 358 PA  
Camargo’s ranking would move up if the Twins traded one of their starting catchers. For now, the Twins don’t have a regular role for him, and the team was hesitant to use him behind the plate when he was on the roster last year. His bat remains a work in progress, but any offensive production will be a bonus given the demands of the catching position. Camargo must improve his ability to handle a pitching staff and control the running game to make him part of the Twins’ plans.

8. Michael Helman, UTL
2025 ZiPS: .228/.292/.374 (.666), 86 OPS+, 0.8 WAR, 391 PA  
Helman’s versatility allows him to carve out a role, but his bat remains a question mark. His defensive flexibility gives him a shot at contributing to the roster, but he’ll need to improve his offensive consistency to secure regular playing time. Helman’s ability to contribute as a baserunner and defender will be key to his value in 2025.

The Twins’ rookies from last season bring a mix of promise and uncertainty into 2025. Players like Lee and Festa project to make the most significant impact, while others like Matthews and Keirsey have the potential to exceed expectations if they can take the next step in their development. With a solid foundation of young talent, the Twins are well-positioned to remain competitive as these players continue to grow.

How would you rank last year’s rookies? Who is too high or too low on the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Heiny]

I am fairly high on Brooks Lee and will be expecting a full time roll and much better results over the coarse of the season.  Zips is projecting some pretty low OPS+ but I fully expect higher OPS+ out of Lee than I do for Keirsey.  Better ERA+ out of SWR and Festa.  But hey, I am an optimist!

 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have to feel that the team is in a pretty good spot with Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews trending upward. Makes any trade for Cease seem difficult too due to the loss of several players that would need to go to San Diego. I have more belief in Festa and Matthews now than I did going into last season because they have continued to refine and adapt to hitters. Yes, each had a few hiccups but the overall stuff and skill looks really good and the team will benefit from the experience gained last season. 

Hard to know what the Twins can get from Brooks Lee. He looked weak but bad backs will do that. The other position guys on the list are all capable of solid production as utility players. It has to be very difficult for an athlete who has always been a star to see their projections stall as a part time player. The mental hurdle is enormous but Keirsey Jr., Martin, Helman, and Camargo should be decent utility players.

[DJL44]

It is important to realize that ZIPS regresses projections to the mean. It assumes that if a player is in MLB that they are good enough to contribute and will rarely predict people to have a negative WAR. Of course, in reality, negative WAR contributors happen all the time.

[NYCTK]

Keirsey is really interesting. We've heard good things about his defense, but those reports are from the same people that said Austin Martin was looking great in the OF. I didn't see enough of him to get any sort of read on him last year. I tend to believe he's going tend to be more of an average to below average CF just based on the vibes I'm picking up. If he were truly a great CF he wouldn't have been sent back to AA after 2022 (unless the Twins are truly incompetent which...is more than possible).

That, paired with a 650 OPS, isn't really a great plan for CF when Buxton inevitably misses 80+ games. Not for a team that has aspirations of being a contender anyway. If they were truly serious about being a contender they'd bring in an actual backup CF like Bader or Hernandez, but we all know the billionaires don't have the money for that. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

Seven players profiled. If even three of those guys make good progress and have a positive impact on the Twins this season, it will be a major success. Having a volume of depth means a lot in the effort to maintain a competitive team, regardless of budget.

[LambchoP]

I'm more intrigued by how Eeles, Keaschal, Keirsey, and all of our young pitchers due in '25. I'm guessing that we will see lots of kids getting their debuts and will have chances to play for the major league club. With the team being so injury prone and not being able to sign a single new player this off-season, we're going to be seeing and relying on a lot of new in house faces.

[mikelink45]

I like the three pitchers and Keirsey.  I am ready for the big trade to happen - Vasquez and Paddock together for ???  But Camargo just does not instill confidence which is why I imagine that the Twins are stocking up on marginal Catchers.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

That’s a nice list of players who are young, controllable, and somewhat projectable for the Twins.  I think that the highest WAR will be produced by whichever of the three pitchers — SWR, Matthews, or Festa — gets the most starts for the Twins in 2025.  I think all three of them have solid futures, but opportunities to perform may vary based on perceptions, injuries, and effectiveness.  

Of the position players, I think that Keirsey will have the best chance for impact.  Unfortunately, a chunk of this will be filling in for Byron Buxton, in the event of injury.  I think that Brooks Lee may have potential, but he really needs to recover from last year’s poor offensive season (I know he was injured for part of it, but he was pretty bad).  I think he starts back at AAA and others are given the chance to play at 2nd base — perhaps this means that the Twins think he has more potential to develop, as opposed to Austin Martin, who may break camp as a utility guy because that is what he appears to be.

With all of them, there is hope that they take a big step forward, and likely some will, but there is also the fear of second year regression, which we have experienced plenty of times in the past.   

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Keirsey is really interesting. We've heard good things about his defense, but those reports are from the same people that said Austin Martin was looking great in the OF. I didn't see enough of him to get any sort of read on him last year. I tend to believe he's going tend to be more of an average to below average CF just based on the vibes I'm picking up. If he were truly a great CF he wouldn't have been sent back to AA after 2022 (unless the Twins are truly incompetent which...is more than possible).

That, paired with a 650 OPS, isn't really a great plan for CF when Buxton inevitably misses 80+ games. Not for a team that has aspirations of being a contender anyway. If they were truly serious about being a contender they'd bring in an actual backup CF like Bader or Hernandez, but we all know the billionaires don't have the money for that. 

I'm not sure what you mean by vibes. If you watched enough of these players at AAA you could see the player's positive and negative points. Transferring those skills to MLB is much more difficult but everyone starts at the bottom when it comes to rookies and MLB experience. I think the Twins need to place trust in a couple players.

If Bader or Hernandez agree to sign for $2 million or less, I might agree with you. Then if the Twins were not satisfied with  performance, the player could simply be DFA'ed. However, that doesn't seem likely. Neither Hader nor Hernandez managed to impress with their OPS, WAR, or OPS+ numbers or much of anything else really. Given, I would choose either of them over Keirsey Jr. or Martin or Helman if they all played for the same salary. Bader and Hernandez, somewhat similar to Margot, are no longer the players they were in the recent past and there is very little guarantee that they will perform any better than the younger guys in the Twins system or even stay healthy.

I don't think this is all about money, but teams are reluctant to pay Bader or Hernandez much more than the minimum for a reason. Austin Hays just signed for $5 million and he is still seen as capable of being a starter and productive bat. There was a fair amount of consideration that his past year was simply due to a serious health issue and not a massive decline in skill or inability to stay healthy. Hays was a player a team takes a chance at, although I don't think for a second that the Twins should have signed Hays either at any price. I'm a little surprised that Jose Iglesias hasn't received a contract yet. Maybe he signs for $2-3M. 

[thelanges5]

57 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Keirsey is really interesting. We've heard good things about his defense, but those reports are from the same people that said Austin Martin was looking great in the OF. I didn't see enough of him to get any sort of read on him last year. I tend to believe he's going tend to be more of an average to below average CF just based on the vibes I'm picking up. If he were truly a great CF he wouldn't have been sent back to AA after 2022 (unless the Twins are truly incompetent which...is more than possible).

That, paired with a 650 OPS, isn't really a great plan for CF when Buxton inevitably misses 80+ games. Not for a team that has aspirations of being a contender anyway. If they were truly serious about being a contender they'd bring in an actual backup CF like Bader or Hernandez, but we all know the billionaires don't have the money for that. 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

Cue the thumbs downs and the derision, but each position player mentioned in this article - regardless of their pedigree, minor league success, or expectation - will not develop even close to their full potential as they attempt to transition into an everyday major leaguer as a Twin. It’s simply something this regime under Rocco and staff don’t do well (and it’s probably one of the most important priorities for smaller, mid - market teams). They might do other things pretty well (like developing talent through multiple minor league levels), but making top position player prospects into consistent, enduring above average major league starters is not one of them, even relative to overall league low success rates.

There is a lot of talk on this site about trading prospects for proven talent. Sad to say, but moving position player prospects at or near their value apogees prior to their inevitable big league stagnation in the Twins organization is probably the best strategy until proven otherwise.  The agents for these prospects should be working the front office to make that happen. If one of these players were my son, I’d welcome a trade with open arms as the history of success with the Twins just isn’t there. 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If Bader or Hernandez agree to sign for $2 million or less, I might agree with you. Then if the Twins were not satisfied with  performance, the player could simply be DFA'ed. However, that doesn't seem likely. Neither Hader nor Hernandez managed to impress with their OPS, WAR, or OPS+ numbers or much of anything else really. Given, I would choose either of them over Keirsey Jr. or Martin or Helman if they all played for the same salary. Bader and Hernandez, somewhat similar to Margot, are no longer the players they were in the recent past and there is very little guarantee that they will perform any better than the younger guys in the Twins system or even stay healthy.

I think we're largely in agreement on these veterans values. I don't think they're stars. But we know Bader is actually a plus defender (Hernandez probably isn't anymore) and he's still likely a better hitter. I wouldn't want to pay him $10 M but the market doesn't seem to think it is either. But $5-8 million is a more than fair salary for someone of Bader's skills, and especially for a team like the Twins who will almost certainly need 80+ starts in CF from their backup CF. 

An actual contender would have a solid "4th OF". A pretender will use Keirsey instead. 

I think Jose Iglesias epitomizes the undervaluing of Veteran players that can still play premium defense. No one should expect him to duplicate his success with the bat last season, but he's still a premium glove at 2B and passable at SS and 3B. Defense doesn't slump and you can get lucky and get a truly team changing spark plug like Candelita was last season. 

IF Keirsey was as good with the glove as some here think, I am all for him being a major leaguer. I just haven't seen it and the supporting evidence isn't there for me to believe it yet. 

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

 

Decent read, but ultimately a pretty routine ball. If I'm not mistaken, that ball has a 76-90% catch probability. 

[NYCTK]

Conversely, here's a ball with a 35% catch probability that Keirsey should have gotten to, but I'm not gonna beat up on him for it. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4a144ff0-2e01-47e7-bc63-7bccc7064a7b

[tony&rodney]

I'm not particularly high on Keirsey Jr., but reality means the Twins don't sign a Bader and if they do the past record suggests that usage continues past the time when a DFA is needed. Not enough money and not enough common sense in usage. This likely means that Keirsey Jr. is next one up.

A far better choice (IMO) is that the Twins begin the season with Emmanuel Rodriguez in the outfield. The primary knock on EmRod is strike outs and the big fear is injury. Cast all anxiety aside. He is ready. Put him in the lineup and should Buxton go down for any time the Twins can slide Emmanuel over into centerfield. Problem solved.

 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Because of the plus defense, Lee should have a good chance to stick in Minneapolis, even if his bat doesn't produce. 

The lack of RH bats in the corner outfield spots means that Willi Castro is going to be in the outfield against lefties. That opens up an infield spot for Lee to be in the lineup against lefties regularly. If Julien is moved to first or DH, Lee has no serious competition for his spot.

Lee should be allowed to take his lumps at the bottom of the order and develop without having to look over his shoulder if he goes through a slump or is working through some struggles. I think that will be very positive for his development and give him a good chance of breaking out in the second half.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not particularly high on Keirsey Jr., but reality means the Twins don't sign a Bader and if they do the past record suggests that usage continues past the time when a DFA is needed. Not enough money and not enough common sense in usage. This likely means that Keirsey Jr. is next one up.

A far better choice (IMO) is that the Twins begin the season with Emmanuel Rodriguez in the outfield. The primary knock on EmRod is strike outs and the big fear is injury. Cast all anxiety aside. He is ready. Put him in the lineup and should Buxton go down for any time the Twins can slide Emmanuel over into centerfield. Problem solved.

 

I don't agree that the kid is ready. He's only had 200 PAs above A+ and while his results have been good, his K rate is extremely high and his BABIP is otherworldly, which is to say I'm not convinced. Let him get another 100 PAs in AAA before we declare him ready. 

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I don't agree that the kid is ready. He's only had 200 PAs above A+ and while his results have been good, his K rate is extremely high and his BABIP is otherworldly, which is to say I'm not convinced. Let him get another 100 PAs in AAA before we declare him ready. 

I have watched a ton of his plate appearances the last two years and his progression has been solid. The decision should be made early in Spring Training from those who are paid to evaluate players. 

I always wonder, merely out of curiosity and fully cognizant that not everyone has the time, how many times a person has watched a player actually play versus checking stats.

I have stated in the past that the Twins should take a leap of faith with EmRod. If they don't fully believe in him, the Twins should gage his value across baseball to fill another need.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I have watched a ton of his plate appearances the last two years and his progression has been solid. The decision should be made early in Spring Training from those who are paid to evaluate players. 

I always wonder, merely out of curiosity and fully cognizant that not everyone has the time, how many times a person has watched a player actually play versus checking stats.

I have stated in the past that the Twins should take a leap of faith with EmRod. If they don't fully believe in him, the Twins should gage his value across baseball to fill another need.

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors, his K rate was 30% and his BABIP was above .400. 

I think he's a huge bust candidate and would be happy to trade him away. 

[Doctor Gast]

Camargo is the 3rd catcher, I'm not comfortable with Camargo even with the Vazquez/ Jeffers tandem, to cover any amount of time if one of these guys goes down. IMO he's not MLB-ready, not able to contribute to the Twins in '25. 

[jmlease1]

Bet the over on Lee and Festa, and the under on Kiersey and Camargo.

Lee's bat will play up much better assuming he's healthy (and the ZiPS projections do). I'm definitely a believer in Festa. But I understand if people are skeptical. Until a starting pitcher proves it, he could be anything. varland looked like a starter in his first opportunity and he's gone south rapidly.

I like Kiersey, but I just don't know if he can hit in MLB, and I don't think he'll get enough run in CF (mostly because of the bat) to rack up much. he's a fine defensive player, but even ZiPS has his OPS under .700. Cmargo just seems to be falling further out of the Twins plans. I think if they had this much faith in him they wouldn't have been adding catchers in the high minors/40-man.

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors, his K rate was 30% and his BABIP was above .400. 

I think he's a huge bust candidate and would be happy to trade him away. 

In A and A+ ball Emmanuel gave away many at bats based on the score - my observation. I noted that he was a little immature and didn't feel exactly challenged. Last season there were major strides made in his approach with occasional lapses. The big downer for EmRod last season was injuries. He has been injured often although every injury is totally different and unrelated to any previous ones. The 90% exit velocities are the best in all of minor league baseball and his chase rate declines each year and was below 10% in AAA. He tends to take some strikes that I would like to see him smash. There is absolutely no similarities between EmRod and Julien there. Rodriguez will also wave and miss at pitches right down the middle. I can remember Kirby doing that quite often.

The swing decisions are huge for Rodriguez and it is why some are worried about him being a bust. Like I previously said, the Twins need to make a call because if they don't believe, the team is missing on a chance to trade him now. 

Me? I'm all in on him based strictly on watching him dominate those AA and AAA pitchers that are ranked highly. I think maturation and motivation are key for EmRod. But ...... what do I know? 

[bean5302]

Following the WAR projection
1) 2.0 DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.
2) 1.8 Zebby Matthews
3) 1.4 David Festa (108IP)
4) 1.4 Simeon Woods Richardson (128IP)
5) 1.2 Jair Camargo
6) 1.1 Brooks Lee
7) 0.8 Michael Helman
8) 0.7 Austin Martin

My order and expectations are:
1) 2.0 David Festa (140 IP)
2) 1.5 SWR (140 IP)
3) 1.0 Zebby Matthews (80 IP)
4) 1.0 Austin Martin (400 PA)
5) 0.5 Brooks Lee (450 PA)
6) 0.5 DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. (200 PA)
7) 0.0 Michael Helman (100 PA)
8) 0.0 Jair Carmargo (0 PA)

I have to admit, I have no feel for Baldelli's or Falvey's direction with this team or where position guys will actually be playing.

[ashbury]

I want to believe in DaShawn Keirsey.  But his BABIP at AAA was closer to .400 than to .300, so it worries me that his good AAA numbers will be a mirage if given a legitimate shot in the majors.  We saw that with Tim Beckham a couple of years ago, on a smaller scale, gaudy AAA stats followed by a horrific stint with the big club, leading some observers to gloat "you can't trust AAA numbers" while others gloated "just look at the BABIPs for both, the truth about Beckham lies somewhere in between."  😀

I also have a sense that Keirsey's an average CFer, by which I mean he is skilled but the bar at the major league level is set very high.  If he doesn't hit, he can't hang on by depriving the opposing teams of runs that another CFer can't prevent.

A projected WAR of 2.0 for a full-time player would mean "average major leaguer."  That same WAR for a part-timer would be a real asset during his time on the field.  Me, I'm afraid I have to take the under.  That's a pretty rich projection for a player of his age still trying to establish himself.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I want to believe in DaShawn Keirsey.  But his BABIP at AAA was closer to .400 than to .300, so it worries me that his good AAA numbers will be a mirage if given a legitimate shot in the majors.  We saw that with Tim Beckham a couple of years ago, on a smaller scale, gaudy AAA stats followed by a horrific stint with the big club, leading some observers to gloat "you can't use AAA numbers" while others gloated "just look at the BABIP for both, the truth for Beckham lies somewhere in between."  😀

I also have a sense that Keirsey's an average CFer, by which I mean he is skilled but the bar at the major league level is very high.  If he doesn't hit, he can't hang on by depriving the opposing teams of runs that another CFer can't prevent.

Yeah, I agree. I expect Keirsey is a slower version of Andrew Stevenson. 

.243/.310/.388 OPS .668, .109 ISO, 8.0% BB, 27.4% K wRC+ 80 (Stevenson MLB)

Career AAA lines
.290/.354/.443 OPS .796, .153 ISO, 7.8% BB, 22.0% K (Stevenson)
vs. 
.292/.370/.451 OPS .821, .159 ISO, 10.2% BB, 22.4% K (Keirsey, Jr.)

Last season in St. Paul
.317/.395/.522 OPS .916, ISO .204, 8.9% BB. 20.6% K, wRC+ 131 (2023 Stevenson)
vs.
.300/.368/.476 OPS .845, ISO .231, 9.5% BB, 23.0% K, wRC+ 119 (2024 Keirsey, Jr.)
 

[Danchat]

A 2 WAR season from Kiersey would be quite something, given I think he is closer to being DFA'd than getting 500 PAs. We are in trouble if those PA numbers - especially Camargo at 360 and Helman at 390 - actually happen. If he is that good, you really have to wonder why he's been sitting in the minors for so long, especially when we needed a backup CF last year.

Seems to me that the their pitching projections are more accurate than the hitting ones, but who knows.

[mikelink45]

I am amazed at how low expectations for keirsey are.  He developed late, but he did develop and I expect good things from him. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am amazed at how low expectations for keirsey are.

Well, we showed our work. 😀

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors,

Try to watch as many plate appearances as you can. It will take less time than whatever moments you spend on Twins Daily. I think you might be surprised.