Ranking Last Year’s Twins Rookies on Projected 2025 Performance

I am fairly high on Brooks Lee and will be expecting a full time roll and much better results over the coarse of the season.  Zips is projecting some pretty low OPS+ but I fully expect higher OPS+ out of Lee than I do for Keirsey.  Better ERA+ out of SWR and Festa.  But hey, I am an optimist!

The Twins have to feel that the team is in a pretty good spot with Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews trending upward. Makes any trade for Cease seem difficult too due to the loss of several players that would need to go to San Diego. I have more belief in Festa and Matthews now than I did going into last season because they have continued to refine and adapt to hitters. Yes, each had a few hiccups but the overall stuff and skill looks really good and the team will benefit from the experience gained last season. 

Hard to know what the Twins can get from Brooks Lee. He looked weak but bad backs will do that. The other position guys on the list are all capable of solid production as utility players. It has to be very difficult for an athlete who has always been a star to see their projections stall as a part time player. The mental hurdle is enormous but Keirsey Jr., Martin, Helman, and Camargo should be decent utility players.

It is important to realize that ZIPS regresses projections to the mean. It assumes that if a player is in MLB that they are good enough to contribute and will rarely predict people to have a negative WAR. Of course, in reality, negative WAR contributors happen all the time.

Keirsey is really interesting. We've heard good things about his defense, but those reports are from the same people that said Austin Martin was looking great in the OF. I didn't see enough of him to get any sort of read on him last year. I tend to believe he's going tend to be more of an average to below average CF just based on the vibes I'm picking up. If he were truly a great CF he wouldn't have been sent back to AA after 2022 (unless the Twins are truly incompetent which...is more than possible).

That, paired with a 650 OPS, isn't really a great plan for CF when Buxton inevitably misses 80+ games. Not for a team that has aspirations of being a contender anyway. If they were truly serious about being a contender they'd bring in an actual backup CF like Bader or Hernandez, but we all know the billionaires don't have the money for that. 

Seven players profiled. If even three of those guys make good progress and have a positive impact on the Twins this season, it will be a major success. Having a volume of depth means a lot in the effort to maintain a competitive team, regardless of budget.

I'm more intrigued by how Eeles, Keaschal, Keirsey, and all of our young pitchers due in '25. I'm guessing that we will see lots of kids getting their debuts and will have chances to play for the major league club. With the team being so injury prone and not being able to sign a single new player this off-season, we're going to be seeing and relying on a lot of new in house faces.

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Keirsey is really interesting. We've heard good things about his defense, but those reports are from the same people that said Austin Martin was looking great in the OF. I didn't see enough of him to get any sort of read on him last year. I tend to believe he's going tend to be more of an average to below average CF just based on the vibes I'm picking up. If he were truly a great CF he wouldn't have been sent back to AA after 2022 (unless the Twins are truly incompetent which...is more than possible).

That, paired with a 650 OPS, isn't really a great plan for CF when Buxton inevitably misses 80+ games. Not for a team that has aspirations of being a contender anyway. If they were truly serious about being a contender they'd bring in an actual backup CF like Bader or Hernandez, but we all know the billionaires don't have the money for that. 

I'm not sure what you mean by vibes. If you watched enough of these players at AAA you could see the player's positive and negative points. Transferring those skills to MLB is much more difficult but everyone starts at the bottom when it comes to rookies and MLB experience. I think the Twins need to place trust in a couple players.

If Bader or Hernandez agree to sign for $2 million or less, I might agree with you. Then if the Twins were not satisfied with  performance, the player could simply be DFA'ed. However, that doesn't seem likely. Neither Hader nor Hernandez managed to impress with their OPS, WAR, or OPS+ numbers or much of anything else really. Given, I would choose either of them over Keirsey Jr. or Martin or Helman if they all played for the same salary. Bader and Hernandez, somewhat similar to Margot, are no longer the players they were in the recent past and there is very little guarantee that they will perform any better than the younger guys in the Twins system or even stay healthy.

I don't think this is all about money, but teams are reluctant to pay Bader or Hernandez much more than the minimum for a reason. Austin Hays just signed for $5 million and he is still seen as capable of being a starter and productive bat. There was a fair amount of consideration that his past year was simply due to a serious health issue and not a massive decline in skill or inability to stay healthy. Hays was a player a team takes a chance at, although I don't think for a second that the Twins should have signed Hays either at any price. I'm a little surprised that Jose Iglesias hasn't received a contract yet. Maybe he signs for $2-3M. 

57 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Keirsey is really interesting. We've heard good things about his defense, but those reports are from the same people that said Austin Martin was looking great in the OF. I didn't see enough of him to get any sort of read on him last year. I tend to believe he's going tend to be more of an average to below average CF just based on the vibes I'm picking up. If he were truly a great CF he wouldn't have been sent back to AA after 2022 (unless the Twins are truly incompetent which...is more than possible).

That, paired with a 650 OPS, isn't really a great plan for CF when Buxton inevitably misses 80+ games. Not for a team that has aspirations of being a contender anyway. If they were truly serious about being a contender they'd bring in an actual backup CF like Bader or Hernandez, but we all know the billionaires don't have the money for that. 

Cue the thumbs downs and the derision, but each position player mentioned in this article - regardless of their pedigree, minor league success, or expectation - will not develop even close to their full potential as they attempt to transition into an everyday major leaguer as a Twin. It’s simply something this regime under Rocco and staff don’t do well (and it’s probably one of the most important priorities for smaller, mid - market teams). They might do other things pretty well (like developing talent through multiple minor league levels), but making top position player prospects into consistent, enduring above average major league starters is not one of them, even relative to overall league low success rates.

There is a lot of talk on this site about trading prospects for proven talent. Sad to say, but moving position player prospects at or near their value apogees prior to their inevitable big league stagnation in the Twins organization is probably the best strategy until proven otherwise.  The agents for these prospects should be working the front office to make that happen. If one of these players were my son, I’d welcome a trade with open arms as the history of success with the Twins just isn’t there. 

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If Bader or Hernandez agree to sign for $2 million or less, I might agree with you. Then if the Twins were not satisfied with  performance, the player could simply be DFA'ed. However, that doesn't seem likely. Neither Hader nor Hernandez managed to impress with their OPS, WAR, or OPS+ numbers or much of anything else really. Given, I would choose either of them over Keirsey Jr. or Martin or Helman if they all played for the same salary. Bader and Hernandez, somewhat similar to Margot, are no longer the players they were in the recent past and there is very little guarantee that they will perform any better than the younger guys in the Twins system or even stay healthy.

I think we're largely in agreement on these veterans values. I don't think they're stars. But we know Bader is actually a plus defender (Hernandez probably isn't anymore) and he's still likely a better hitter. I wouldn't want to pay him $10 M but the market doesn't seem to think it is either. But $5-8 million is a more than fair salary for someone of Bader's skills, and especially for a team like the Twins who will almost certainly need 80+ starts in CF from their backup CF. 

An actual contender would have a solid "4th OF". A pretender will use Keirsey instead. 

I think Jose Iglesias epitomizes the undervaluing of Veteran players that can still play premium defense. No one should expect him to duplicate his success with the bat last season, but he's still a premium glove at 2B and passable at SS and 3B. Defense doesn't slump and you can get lucky and get a truly team changing spark plug like Candelita was last season. 

IF Keirsey was as good with the glove as some here think, I am all for him being a major leaguer. I just haven't seen it and the supporting evidence isn't there for me to believe it yet. 

9 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

 

Decent read, but ultimately a pretty routine ball. If I'm not mistaken, that ball has a 76-90% catch probability. 

Conversely, here's a ball with a 35% catch probability that Keirsey should have gotten to, but I'm not gonna beat up on him for it. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4a144ff0-2e01-47e7-bc63-7bccc7064a7b

I'm not particularly high on Keirsey Jr., but reality means the Twins don't sign a Bader and if they do the past record suggests that usage continues past the time when a DFA is needed. Not enough money and not enough common sense in usage. This likely means that Keirsey Jr. is next one up.

A far better choice (IMO) is that the Twins begin the season with Emmanuel Rodriguez in the outfield. The primary knock on EmRod is strike outs and the big fear is injury. Cast all anxiety aside. He is ready. Put him in the lineup and should Buxton go down for any time the Twins can slide Emmanuel over into centerfield. Problem solved.

Because of the plus defense, Lee should have a good chance to stick in Minneapolis, even if his bat doesn't produce. 

The lack of RH bats in the corner outfield spots means that Willi Castro is going to be in the outfield against lefties. That opens up an infield spot for Lee to be in the lineup against lefties regularly. If Julien is moved to first or DH, Lee has no serious competition for his spot.

Lee should be allowed to take his lumps at the bottom of the order and develop without having to look over his shoulder if he goes through a slump or is working through some struggles. I think that will be very positive for his development and give him a good chance of breaking out in the second half.

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not particularly high on Keirsey Jr., but reality means the Twins don't sign a Bader and if they do the past record suggests that usage continues past the time when a DFA is needed. Not enough money and not enough common sense in usage. This likely means that Keirsey Jr. is next one up.

A far better choice (IMO) is that the Twins begin the season with Emmanuel Rodriguez in the outfield. The primary knock on EmRod is strike outs and the big fear is injury. Cast all anxiety aside. He is ready. Put him in the lineup and should Buxton go down for any time the Twins can slide Emmanuel over into centerfield. Problem solved.

 

I don't agree that the kid is ready. He's only had 200 PAs above A+ and while his results have been good, his K rate is extremely high and his BABIP is otherworldly, which is to say I'm not convinced. Let him get another 100 PAs in AAA before we declare him ready. 

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I don't agree that the kid is ready. He's only had 200 PAs above A+ and while his results have been good, his K rate is extremely high and his BABIP is otherworldly, which is to say I'm not convinced. Let him get another 100 PAs in AAA before we declare him ready. 

I have watched a ton of his plate appearances the last two years and his progression has been solid. The decision should be made early in Spring Training from those who are paid to evaluate players. 

I always wonder, merely out of curiosity and fully cognizant that not everyone has the time, how many times a person has watched a player actually play versus checking stats.

I have stated in the past that the Twins should take a leap of faith with EmRod. If they don't fully believe in him, the Twins should gage his value across baseball to fill another need.

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I have watched a ton of his plate appearances the last two years and his progression has been solid. The decision should be made early in Spring Training from those who are paid to evaluate players. 

I always wonder, merely out of curiosity and fully cognizant that not everyone has the time, how many times a person has watched a player actually play versus checking stats.

I have stated in the past that the Twins should take a leap of faith with EmRod. If they don't fully believe in him, the Twins should gage his value across baseball to fill another need.

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors, his K rate was 30% and his BABIP was above .400. 

I think he's a huge bust candidate and would be happy to trade him away. 

Camargo is the 3rd catcher, I'm not comfortable with Camargo even with the Vazquez/ Jeffers tandem, to cover any amount of time if one of these guys goes down. IMO he's not MLB-ready, not able to contribute to the Twins in '25. 

Bet the over on Lee and Festa, and the under on Kiersey and Camargo.

Lee's bat will play up much better assuming he's healthy (and the ZiPS projections do). I'm definitely a believer in Festa. But I understand if people are skeptical. Until a starting pitcher proves it, he could be anything. varland looked like a starter in his first opportunity and he's gone south rapidly.

I like Kiersey, but I just don't know if he can hit in MLB, and I don't think he'll get enough run in CF (mostly because of the bat) to rack up much. he's a fine defensive player, but even ZiPS has his OPS under .700. Cmargo just seems to be falling further out of the Twins plans. I think if they had this much faith in him they wouldn't have been adding catchers in the high minors/40-man.

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors, his K rate was 30% and his BABIP was above .400. 

I think he's a huge bust candidate and would be happy to trade him away. 

In A and A+ ball Emmanuel gave away many at bats based on the score - my observation. I noted that he was a little immature and didn't feel exactly challenged. Last season there were major strides made in his approach with occasional lapses. The big downer for EmRod last season was injuries. He has been injured often although every injury is totally different and unrelated to any previous ones. The 90% exit velocities are the best in all of minor league baseball and his chase rate declines each year and was below 10% in AAA. He tends to take some strikes that I would like to see him smash. There is absolutely no similarities between EmRod and Julien there. Rodriguez will also wave and miss at pitches right down the middle. I can remember Kirby doing that quite often.

The swing decisions are huge for Rodriguez and it is why some are worried about him being a bust. Like I previously said, the Twins need to make a call because if they don't believe, the team is missing on a chance to trade him now. 

Me? I'm all in on him based strictly on watching him dominate those AA and AAA pitchers that are ranked highly. I think maturation and motivation are key for EmRod. But ...... what do I know? 

7 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Never seen him. Doesn't change the fact that he's had pretty limited playing time in the high minors,

Try to watch as many plate appearances as you can. It will take less time than whatever moments you spend on Twins Daily. I think you might be surprised.