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Posted

The Twins began seeing some value on their side of the Jose Berríos trade during the 2024 season. So, what does ZiPS project for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson in the coming years?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn, Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins made a bold move at the 2021 trade deadline, sending homegrown ace José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Nearly three years later, the trade remains pivotal in both franchises' trajectories. With another season in the books, let's evaluate the trade's current and future impact, focusing on the contributions of Martin and Woods Richardson in 2024 and the broader context of Berríos' value to Toronto.

The Berríos Side of the Trade 
Berríos was an anchor in the Twins' rotation, making two All-Star appearances and consistently providing innings and durability. After the trade, Toronto locked him up with a seven-year, $131 million extension. Following the trade deadline in 2021, he was outstanding, providing Toronto with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings. He compiled 1.7 fWAR in two months' worth of starts, which was one of the better stretches of his career. 

Berríos struggled in 2022 during his first full season in Toronto as something was off for a pitcher who had been one of the AL’s most consistent starters. In 172 innings, he combined for a 5.23 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and -0.3 fWAR. He led all AL pitchers in hits allowed and total earned runs. The end of 2021 and the entire 2022 season were the years of team control Minnesota was trading away with Berríos, so he combined for 1.4 fWAR. 

Trading Berríos was a tough but necessary decision from the Twins' perspective. He wanted to be paid like a front-line starter, but that wouldn’t happen with the Twins. With the team out of contention in 2021, flipping him for controllable young talent aligned with their long-term goals. However, the deal’s ultimate success hinges on the development and contributions of Martin and Woods Richardson.

Austin Martin’s 2024 Contributions and Future Outlook
Martin’s journey since the trade has been anything but linear. Once viewed as a high-floor, contact-oriented hitter with defensive versatility, injuries, and swing mechanics issues slowed his ascent. Last season, Martin began impacting the big-league roster despite some growing pains. In 93 games, he hit .253/.318/.352 (.670) with 20 extra-base hits and seven stolen bases.

Looking ahead, Martin’s ability to carve out a consistent role will be critical. The Twins value his versatility, and with further development, he could be a key piece as a utility player in their lineup for years. His LA Sweet-Spot%, Squared-Up%, and Chase% were in the 85th percentile or higher even though he didn’t qualify for the leaderboard. Questions remain about his ability to add power and sustain his offensive production, but his 2024 season showed he can make solid contact and get on base regularly. 

FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski used ZiPs to project Martin’s performance during his remaining years of team control. Martin is seen as a slightly below-average hitter with an OPS+ in the low 90s while also providing minimal WAR per season. If ZiPS holds true, Martin would combine for 3.3 fWAR plus -0.2 fWAR from 2024 for a total of 3.1 fWAR. He would likely become expensive in arbitration to the point where the Twins may non-tender him if his offensive performance doesn’t improve.   

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Simeon Woods Richardson’s Contributions and Future Value
Woods Richardson also took significant strides in 2024 as he arguably saved the Twins’ starting rotation in the first half. In 16 first-half starts, he posted a 3.51 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 2.96 SO/W. His second half saw a dip in his performance as he ended the year with a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 133 2/3 innings, showcasing a refined slider that generated a 24% whiff rate. His ability to adjust to the big-league level made him a valuable asset in a pitching staff with multiple injuries.

The Twins envision Woods Richardson as a mid-rotation starter, but he showed flashes of his potential upside. His fastball velocity ticked up last season from averaging in the low-90s during his early career to over 93 mph last season. His uptick in velocity helped him rely less on his four-seamer because his other pitches also had more velocity. His contributions in 2024 demonstrated why the Twins were willing to gamble on his upside.

Long-term, ZiPS views Woods Richardson as a league-average starter with over 120 innings pitched per season. That player type is valuable in a back-of-the-rotation role. SWR is projected to 9.4 fWAR from 2025-2030 to go with the 1.8 fWAR from 2024 to reach 11.2 fWAR. He was seen as the lesser prospect at the time of the trade, but he has developed to the point where he might produce the most long-term value. 

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Trade Verdict and Long-Term Impact
Evaluating the trade nearly three years later, both teams have reasons to be satisfied. Toronto received a reliable starter in Berríos, whose extension ensured the trade wasn’t a short-term rental. Meanwhile, the Twins bolstered their system with two promising players who contributed at the MLB level in 2024.

The trade's ultimate verdict will depend on Martin and Woods Richardson’s continued development. If Martin can become a versatile utility player and Woods Richardson solidifies himself as a rotation fixture, the Twins could declare the deal a win. Conversely, if their growth stalls, the Blue Jays' decision to bet on Berríos’ stability might look wiser in hindsight.

As it stands, the trade underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of deadline deals. For the Twins, the hope is that Martin and Woods Richardson represent key contributors to their next competitive window. For now, 2024 offered a glimpse of what could be a bright future and a reminder of why trading an established starter like Berríos can be worth the gamble.

How should the Twins view the Berríos trade? Can either club be declared the winner of the trade? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 


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Posted

There's a lot to consider from the Twins' perspective. Only the Twins had Berrios, and Toronto wasn't the only team making offers so the lost opportunity of other trade offers we don't even know about. From a BTV standpoint, Toronto made a massive overpay for Berrios and the Twins took it, but what if the Padres were offering MacKenzie Gore? Anyway, there's also the NPV to consider. A quality player now is worth more than a quality player in the future.

I think the trade went poorly for the Twins as of right now. The Twins had the 2nd most valuable pitcher available on the trade market at the deadline in 2021 and they turned that huge asset into one guy who is almost assuredly looking at the twilight of a short and unremarkable career, and another guy who looks like they might stick around with some minimal production for a few more years. I don't believe in SWR in the rotation long term at this point (I'd take Festa over SWR), and Austin Martin has a very low ceiling at this point. While Simeon Woods Richardson still has a chance, the way he folded up shop in the 2nd half as hitters adjusted, and even potentially ran out of steam despite being an 7 year professional under the age of 25 doesn't bode well for him being successful/better conditioned/more reliable in the future.

Posted

In their heart of hearts, I'm pretty sure they're disappointed in the return for Berrios.

Martin looks eminently replaceable and SWR looks like a back of the rotation starter that you hope to be passed up by another arm with higher upside. It's not a horrible return or complete bust, but I'm pretty positive this is not what they were expecting/hoping for when they hung up the phone after agreeing to that deal. It's nowhere near a disaster of a deal, but it's certainly not a win. They gave themselves two solid swings at a really nice return with two publicly respected prospects. Both pretty quickly lost luster and neither appears likely to hit anywhere near their ceiling. It happens. But if they can both contribute, even on the margins, it's certainly better than coming away with nothing.

Posted

We don’t know yet how the trade tree will continue to branch off.  In a few years what to we get in a Woods-Richardson trade?  But another season of what we got last year alone at least ties the trade in terms of value.  Assuming you are only counting the year and a half of team control and not his extension he signed with the Jays. 

Posted
1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

"Questions remain about [Martin's] ability to add power"

Do they? I think everyone is on the same page that this will not happen.

 

Not everybody is cut out to be Babe Ruth.  I wish they would have just left him alone and let him be the contact hitter he is.  

 

Posted

It was a nice year for SWR, more than what was expected. Martin had an OK year considering what he had to go through as a rookie. Keep him at 2B, coach him better in the OF & ease him in. If they don't screw him over again he'll have a more representative of what he can do which will be pretty good. If they ease him into the lead-off spot he'd be very valuable. TOR & MN must seen something to lead them to think that they could turn him into a power SS. But I don't care if he ever develops power, with his baserunning ability it's not needed.

Posted

ZIPS 2024 ops+ projections for some of the young players Lewis 121, actual 107. Julien 112, actual 74, Wallner 112, actual 124. Miranda 105, Actual 112, Lee 89, actual 64, Castro 93, actual 102, Larnach 95, actual 116. Martin, 83, actual 89.   Not terribly accurate. 

Posted
37 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

TOR & MN must seen something to lead them to think that they could turn him into a power SS. But I don't care if he ever develops power, with his baserunning ability it's not needed.

Alternative theory: both the Twins and Blue Jays recognized he had little value if he didn't develop either some power or the ability to play premium defense. Neither has happened. 

Posted

ZIPS 2024 era + for the pitchers was also inaccurate. Being TD decided to malfunction once again, refused to reload and deletes the post about the pitchers I was typing. I am going to think about trying again later 

Posted
58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It was a nice year for SWR, more than what was expected. Martin had an OK year considering what he had to go through as a rookie. Keep him at 2B, coach him better in the OF & ease him in. If they don't screw him over again he'll have a more representative of what he can do which will be pretty good. If they ease him into the lead-off spot he'd be very valuable. TOR & MN must seen something to lead them to think that they could turn him into a power SS. But I don't care if he ever develops power, with his baserunning ability it's not needed.

Martin went through his rookie season  better than a few others  , with some more experience and regular playing time he could even improve , I to agree his power is not his strength and isn't needed if he hits singles , 35 or more doubles , 10 triples , and steals 30 or more bases he might end up being a leadoff hitter someday ...                          if Martin can find a groove to get on base in front of players that do have power to drive in , that would be acceptable to me  ...

runs and rbi's matter more to me than the Twins players that hit to many solo homeruns , I like homeruns , but I like a clutch 3 run  homerun better when the pressure is on for a game changer ...

We don't exactly know what we have in Martin  , some players adapt slower to the major leagues than others , the others that adapt fast are superstars and martin isnt a superstar, need more time to evaluate him ...

SWR made better strides this year than anyone ever could imagine  , he's going to have to build up more stamina and make adjustments to the hitters , some say he ran out of gas , some say other teams adjusted to him in the last couple of months  , whatever the case may be he has work to do ...

The coaches also have work to do  , you've heard me say that once a player gets to the big leagues  , it a level harder to play than AAA  ,  a talented player comes up so the coaches should take that talent and coach  them to be a better talent , they are coached in the minors but once in the majors it seems the coaches don't make the necessary  steps to coach the highly talented to a faster,  better way of fundamental baseball  and then they end up as a AAAA PLAYER  ...

 

Posted
41 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Martin went through his rookie season  better than a few others  , with some more experience and regular playing time he could even improve , I to agree his power is not his strength and isn't needed if he hits singles , 35 or more doubles , 10 triples , and steals 30 or more bases he might end up being a leadoff hitter someday ...                          if Martin can find a groove to get on base in front of players that do have power to drive in , that would be acceptable to me  ...

runs and rbi's matter more to me than the Twins players that hit to many solo homeruns , I like homeruns , but I like a clutch 3 run  homerun better when the pressure is on for a game changer ...

We don't exactly know what we have in Martin  , some players adapt slower to the major leagues than others , the others that adapt fast are superstars and martin isnt a superstar, need more time to evaluate him ...

SWR made better strides this year than anyone ever could imagine  , he's going to have to build up more stamina and make adjustments to the hitters , some say he ran out of gas , some say other teams adjusted to him in the last couple of months  , whatever the case may be he has work to do ...

The coaches also have work to do  , you've heard me say that once a player gets to the big leagues  , it a level harder to play than AAA  ,  a talented player comes up so the coaches should take that talent and coach  them to be a better talent , they are coached in the minors but once in the majors it seems the coaches don't make the necessary  steps to coach the highly talented to a faster,  better way of fundamental baseball  and then they end up as a AAAA PLAYER  ...

 

Jarren Duran, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz were the only 3 players to put up 30, 10, 30 last year. Corbin Carroll did 20, 10, 30. They were the only guys in baseball with 10 triples. 10 triples is probably too big of an ask. Only 19 guys had 6 or more triples. 32 reached 5. There were also only 17 players in baseball last year to hit 35 doubles. 47 hit 30. 24 guys stole 30 bases.

If we lower the numbers to 30 doubles, 5 triples, and 20 SBs the list of players who did it last year is Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr, and Jarren Duran. The numbers you're suggesting Martin may get to are above superstar numbers. 

If you take triples out and just go 30 doubles and 20 SBs you're at the guys listed above plus Altuve, Arozarena, Willy Adames, Zach Neto, Steer, Oneil Cruz, Nico Hoerner, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor. Couple of more random names in there with Hoerner, Neto, and Steer, but still a pretty exclusive list. I think we all hope he gets there, but the odds are not in his favor that he reaches  numbers only 14 guys in all of baseball reached last year.

Posted

Now factor in what we gave up a year later in a futile attempt to replace what Berrios meant to the rotation by trading for Tyler Mahle and then again when the Mahle acquisition went south and we dealt for Sonny Gray.  I won't even factor in trading the batting champ for Pedro.

Posted

Trades are usually equal when made. All GM's know the value of their players. Value disparity typically doesn't exist at the time of trades. 

Trades are won and lost later based on which club does a better job increasing the value of the player or players they acquire. 

So far so good with SWR.

On the offensive side. Will Austin Martin be strip mined for parts? WIll Austin Martin make the team as a 25 year old short sider? WIll Austin Martin be waiting for injury to someone else just to shed the short side constraints only to return to short side duty when the injured return?

I believe... Yes he will be... is the answer to all of the above questions. This will leave Austin Martin with no path to significant value. Even if Austin Martin has a decent showing when the constraints are shed due to injury to someone else. He will be returned to short side duty because somebody always has to handle the short side.  

If the Twins are going to win this trade... It will be up to SWR.  

 

Posted
14 hours ago, gmwannabe said:

Does anyone remember who the Jay's top prospects were at the time this deal was made? If Martin and SWR were their #2 and #5 rated prospects, that's probably as good as we were going to get.

From MLB

1. Nate Pearson, RHP (MLB No. 10)
2. Austin Martin, SS/OF (MLB No. 22)
3. Jordan Groshans, SS (MLB No. 46)
4. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (MLB No. 87)
5. Alejandro Kirk, C

Posted
9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Now factor in what we gave up a year later in a futile attempt to replace what Berrios meant to the rotation by trading for Tyler Mahle and then again when the Mahle acquisition went south and we dealt for Sonny Gray.  I won't even factor in trading the batting champ for Pedro.

1. Your timeline is incorrect. The Twins traded for Sonny Gray before 2022, then they traded for Tyler Mahle at the trade deadline during the 2022 season to try to improve their playoff odds that season. Sonny Gray was not acquired to make up for the Tyle Mahle trade because he was already on the roster.

2. The math on the Gray for Berrios swap is really 2 years of Gray plus 6 years each of Martin and SWR for 1.5 years of Berrios plus 6 years of Chase Petty.

For the year the Twins still would've had Berrios under control (2022) Berrios had a 5.23 ERA in 32 starts. Sonny Gray had a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts. You can determine which you'd have rather had that year. The question of whether or not the Twins could, or would, have extended Berrios is hard to answer. The reports were they tried and couldn't get it done and that's why they traded him. I guess you can believe what you want on that. You can decide what you want on the 3 prospects. But that was the swap that was made, not the one you suggested.

3. Arraez for Pablo doesn't factor in at all so it makes sense that you wouldn't include that since it isn't related because Gray was the one who replaced Berrios on the roster.

Posted

Trading for Pablo Lopez later is a factor in the Berrios trade. Trading Berrios freed up enough money to later pay Lopez about half of what Berrios got. Lopez has at least as much upside or possibly more than Berrios, and the Twins wouldn’t pay them both. I’ll take Lopez over Berrios, as Lopez has more upside at this point in his career, IMO.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Trading for Pablo Lopez later is a factor in the Berrios trade. Trading Berrios freed up enough money to later pay Lopez about half of what Berrios got. Lopez has at least as much upside or possibly more than Berrios, and the Twins wouldn’t pay them both. I’ll take Lopez over Berrios, as Lopez has more upside at this point in his career, IMO.

Berrios would have walked as a free agent and freed up that money all by himself.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Trading for Pablo Lopez later is a factor in the Berrios trade. Trading Berrios freed up enough money to later pay Lopez about half of what Berrios got. Lopez has at least as much upside or possibly more than Berrios, and the Twins wouldn’t pay them both. I’ll take Lopez over Berrios, as Lopez has more upside at this point in his career, IMO.

Exactly. One can't ignore the financial side of the deal.

Posted
36 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

From MLB

1. Nate Pearson, RHP (MLB No. 10)
2. Austin Martin, SS/OF (MLB No. 22)
3. Jordan Groshans, SS (MLB No. 46)
4. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (MLB No. 87)
5. Alejandro Kirk, C

I spend a lot of time looking at these lists from past years.

As a result of looking at such lists from the past for all 30 teams... It makes me worry less about current lists. I've concluded that there doesn't seem to be a canyon separating players in the top 5 and players outside the top 10.  

That 2021 Blue Jays class was highly regarded in 2021. Only Catchers Kirk and Moreno have cemented MLB jobs.

The Rays farm was considered top of the pile that year. Wander Franco obviously went horrible for non-baseball reasons but beyond that. Arozerena 3rd ranked prospect in the system, McClanahan 7th ranked and Joe Ryan 14th ranked in the system are the only players with a job 2025 job locked up.

Same Year 2021 Twins:

Balazovic was ranked 4th, Sabato 7th, Celestino 9th, Cavaco 10th. 

On the other side. Rooker 13, Wallner 14, Miranda 20. Ober 25. 

Things will change

Develop or Die

Posted
8 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Trading for Pablo Lopez later is a factor in the Berrios trade. Trading Berrios freed up enough money to later pay Lopez about half of what Berrios got. Lopez has at least as much upside or possibly more than Berrios, and the Twins wouldn’t pay them both. I’ll take Lopez over Berrios, as Lopez has more upside at this point in his career, IMO.

 

5 minutes ago, luckylager said:

Exactly. One can't ignore the financial side of the deal.

Jose Berrios wasn't under contract for the time Lopez has been with the Twins. Sonny Gray was the Berrios replacement. Not Lopez. Berrios' time with the Twins was going to be up after 2022. Pablo Lopez didn't get to the Twins until 2023. You didn't have to trade Jose Berrios to afford Lopez because Berrios wouldn't have been here anymore anyways, you could've just let him walk. Instead the Twins got Sonny Gray and were able to pair him with Lopez and win their first playoff series in 2 decades.

The Berrios trade had no factor in the Lopez trade. Simply not extending Berrios would've done the same exact thing financially for the Lopez extension. You didn't need to trade him to afford Lopez. They aren't connected.

Posted
14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

1. Your timeline is incorrect. The Twins traded for Sonny Gray before 2022, then they traded for Tyler Mahle at the trade deadline during the 2022 season to try to improve their playoff odds that season. Sonny Gray was not acquired to make up for the Tyle Mahle trade because he was already on the roster.

2. The math on the Gray for Berrios swap is really 2 years of Gray plus 6 years each of Martin and SWR for 1.5 years of Berrios plus 6 years of Chase Petty.

For the year the Twins still would've had Berrios under control (2022) Berrios had a 5.23 ERA in 32 starts. Sonny Gray had a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts. You can determine which you'd have rather had that year. The question of whether or not the Twins could, or would, have extended Berrios is hard to answer. The reports were they tried and couldn't get it done and that's why they traded him. I guess you can believe what you want on that. You can decide what you want on the 3 prospects. But that was the swap that was made, not the one you suggested.

3. Arraez for Pablo doesn't factor in at all so it makes sense that you wouldn't include that since it isn't related because Gray was the one who replaced Berrios on the roster.

Regardless, what can't be argued is that they gave up a lot of assets for front line starting pitching after moving Berrios.  And they moved him over a full season before they had too.  Who knows how 2022 plays out if they don't.  And, although the return looked promising in 2024, both need to improve for the Twins to win this deal.

Posted
14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I spend a lot of time looking at these lists from past years.

As a result of looking at such lists from the past for all 30 teams... It makes me worry less about current lists. I've concluded that there doesn't seem to be a canyon separating players in the top 5 and players outside the top 10.  

That 2021 Blue Jays class was highly regarded in 2021. Only Catchers Kirk and Moreno have cemented MLB jobs.

The Rays farm was considered top of the pile that year. Wander Franco obviously went horrible for non-baseball reasons but beyond that. Arozerena 3rd ranked prospect in the system, McClanahan 7th ranked and Joe Ryan 14th ranked in the system are the only players with a job 2025 job locked up.

Same Year 2021 Twins:

Balazovic was ranked 4th, Sabato 7th, Celestino 9th, Cavaco 10th. 

On the other side. Rooker 13, Wallner 14, Miranda 20. Ober 25. 

Things will change

Develop or Die

Moreno was the guy they should have targeted.  Especially since they ended up moving him anyway.

Posted
4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Regardless, what can't be argued is that they gave up a lot of assets for front line starting pitching after moving Berrios.  And they moved him over a full season before they had too.  Who knows how 2022 plays out if they don't.  And, although the return looked promising in 2024, both need to improve for the Twins to win this deal.

Keeping Berrios doesn't change that, except for 1 of those starting pitchers. Or are you arguing that Jose Berrios is so good he would've made up for multiple pitchers? 

That's why I gave you the math on Gray for Berrios. That was the swap. If they still had Berrios instead of Gray they still would've needed/wanted a Mahle, or they would've been a worse team if you believe he would've had the same ERA he had in Toronto in which case they wouldn't have gotten anything useful for him and they would've let him walk for nothing at the end of the season after 2022. If they had Berrios instead of Gray with the failed Mahle trade they still would've wanted/needed Lopez, but they wouldn't have had Berrios to overlap with him in 2023 so that season would've had less pitching or they would've had to give up more assets to go find somebody like, I don't know, let's say, Sonny Gray, to pair with Lopez to get them to their first playoff series win in 2 decades.

Your logic is flawed. The Berrios trade lead to them trading for Gray, sure you can draw that 1 line, but you can't draw multiple others. He was only replaced by 1 guy. They were always going to need to either spend big in free agency on arms or trade assets to get starting pitching. Whether Berrios was here or not they would've needed to add a Mahle and/or a Lopez. Berrios wasn't suddenly going to take up multiple rotation spots. He was replaced by Gray. That's it. 

And it wasn't "over" a full season before they had to move him if they wanted to get something for him. Sure, they could've had him for all of 2022 and let him walk for a singular comp pick, but that's a worse return than what they got. So, they traded him a season before they had to, not "over" a season.

And, I agree, both need to improve and be better than back of rotation or bench type players to say the Twins won the deal. I never claimed they won the deal. My stance is the Twins are disappointed in the return. My disagreement with your post was your claim that the Berrios trade alone lead to 3 separate trades. That's false. His rotation spot was filled by Sonny Gray. And it was filled really well by Gray.

Posted
21 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins are going to win this trade... It will be up to SWR. 

SWR could turn into a very good starter, but I still think if the Twins end up "winning" this trade it will be because Austin Martin turns into an above average player. I'm still hoping he gets the chance and that happens, but I think it would help immensely if the team has him stick to one position and allow him to be confident and comfortable in that role. 

Posted
7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Moreno was the guy they should have targeted.  Especially since they ended up moving him anyway.

Remember when the Jays had that catching surplus. Jansen, Kirk and Moreno.

I'd rather the Twins develop and promote catching. Failing to do that. Moreno would have been a nice pick up. Expensive but a nice pick up. 

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