How Does ZiPS View the Twins’ Long-Term Value in the Jose Berríos Trade

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

SWR could turn into a very good starter, but I still think if the Twins end up "winning" this trade it will be because Austin Martin turns into an above average player. I'm still hoping he gets the chance and that happens, but I think it would help immensely if the team has him stick to one position and allow him to be confident and comfortable in that role. 

One position would kill him. His versatility saves him much like Castro was saved by his versatility. 

Castro probably only made the roster in 2023 because of his versatility. Polanco was hurt to start the season and Castro got that last spot. 

Castro didn't have to wait for an injury at a specific position for opportunity. Castro could be the next man up everywhere. 

Martin is not one of our top 9 players. He must wait for a door to open... don't know where the door open. Martin can walk through multiple doors. 

It's a good thing. 

[gman]

Well Berrios wasn't going to be here. The Twins weren't going to give him $130mil. So far they've only given Correa that much.  Berrios probably wasn't going to be as bad here his last year as he was in Toronto that his first full year. To me The Twins came out way ahead, as they have 2 players now to give them multiple years of play. In SWR first full year here he was much better than Berrios was in what would have been his last year here.

We don't know how good or bad SWR and Martin will be, but we do know Berrios wasn't going to be here. He said as much.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 1/8/2025 at 2:34 PM, chpettit19 said:

In their heart of hearts, I'm pretty sure they're disappointed in the return for Berrios.

Martin looks eminently replaceable and SWR looks like a back of the rotation starter that you hope to be passed up by another arm with higher upside. It's not a horrible return or complete bust, but I'm pretty positive this is not what they were expecting/hoping for when they hung up the phone after agreeing to that deal. It's nowhere near a disaster of a deal, but it's certainly not a win. They gave themselves two solid swings at a really nice return with two publicly respected prospects. Both pretty quickly lost luster and neither appears likely to hit anywhere near their ceiling. It happens. But if they can both contribute, even on the margins, it's certainly better than coming away with nothing.

Top prospects become competent major leaguers at something like 25-50%.
https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

SWR was 86th in 2021, I wasn’t able to find Austin Martin in the top 100. SWR had a 17% chance of being “successful” not even “excellent”.

Realistically they weren’t going to trade 1.5 years of Berrios for guaranteed 6 years of Berrios. It’s a chance at 6 years of Berrios.

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Top prospects become competent major leaguers at something like 25-50%.
https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

SWR was 86th in 2021, I wasn’t able to find Austin Martin in the top 100. SWR had a 17% chance of being “successful” not even “excellent”.

Realistically they weren’t going to trade 1.5 years of Berrios for guaranteed 6 years of Berrios. It’s a chance at 6 years of Berrios.

Austin Martin was #19 on Baseball America's list in 2021 and #22 on both MLB and Baseball Prospect's lists that year. According to his baseball reference page, at least. And MLB.com. I don't have memberships to the other 2 so I'll have to trust b-ref is correct about those 2 as well. The Twins got 2 top 100 prospects for Berrios. Including 1 top 25 prospect.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Austin Martin was #19 on Baseball America's list in 2021 and #22 on both MLB and Baseball Prospect's lists that year. According to his baseball reference page, at least. And MLB.com. I don't have memberships to the other 2 so I'll have to trust b-ref is correct about those 2 as well. The Twins got 2 top 100 prospects for Berrios. Including 1 top 25 prospect.

Lottery tickets are independent outcomes. 2 top 100 prospects are more valuable as currency, but they are still independent in their odds of success.

the ROI we should be measuring is not Jose Berrios, that trade was player for prospects. is 2 top 100 prospects commensurate? Seems so as you hold the outcomes of what happened after the trade in somewhat low regard.
 

Rather, the ROI should be measured on the minor league coaching and training apparatus. Does the coaching machine work better than its peers? Are there subsets more efficient at producing higher quality outcomes than others?

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Lottery tickets are independent outcomes. 2 top 100 prospects are more valuable as currency, but they are still independent in their odds of success.

the ROI we should be measuring is not Jose Berrios, that trade was player for prospects. is 2 top 100 prospects commensurate? Seems so as you hold the outcomes of what happened after the trade in somewhat low regard.
 

Rather, the ROI should be measured on the minor league coaching and training apparatus. Does the coaching machine work better than its peers? Are there subsets more efficient at producing higher quality outcomes than others?

I was just giving the extra info on Martin. 

I think it's a relatively average outcome for prospects. But I don't think it's what the Twins were hoping for. I don't find that to be an overly controversial statement.

Martin had just been the #5 pick in the draft and was a top 25 prospect in baseball already in AA. I think it's reasonable they believed he'd be a top of the order bat or middle of the diamond everyday player. That doesn't seem to be a likely outcome at this point.

SWR was a 20 yr old already in AA. Reasonable to believe he had higher upside than back end of rotation starter, but that's what he's looking like. At least to me. Others may feel differently. 

Getting 2 mlb players for 1.5 years of Berrios isn't a disaster by any means, but it wasn't the hope or goal with these two players. 

Big picture we should absolutely care far more about the overall rate of prospect development success than just these 2 guys from this 1 trade, of course. But this article is about this 1 trade so we were just talking about these 2 guys. Even when it comes to trades we should care more about the success rate of all trades combined and not focus on just one trade. But in order to determine overall success rates you need to look at individual situations first. And that's what we're doing here. I wouldn’t call this a success or failure. It'd get a C grade from me. They added years of control but lost the high end talent level. 

[ashbury]

I like projection systems as a quick and dirty way of thinking about many things.  But such systems necessarily operate on a conservative basis - "if present trends continue, things will remain about the same."

It's just too early to try to say anything definitive about a trade of a guy who will be 31 this coming season versus two guys who will be 26 and 24.  I've been down on Martin since the trade was made, but I still hold out hope that he finds one or two tweaks to his game that let him be productive - a little more comfort at the plate and he's suddenly a valuable leadoff hitter for a few years.  SWR was always the key to the trade for me, and if 2024 was a kid-gloves approach to him by the manager and pitching coach, maybe 2025 is the year the constraints come off (maybe with the aid of some additional off-season conditioning?).

Martin and SWR could of course turn out to be the latest incarnations of Nick Gordon and Fernando Romero respectively.

Not ready to make any real judgements.

[dxpavelka]

On 1/10/2025 at 7:11 AM, Riverbrian said:

Remember when the Jays had that catching surplus. Jansen, Kirk and Moreno.

I'd rather the Twins develop and promote catching. Failing to do that. Moreno would have been a nice pick up. Expensive but a nice pick up. 

7.6 WAR 2022-2024.  Jeffers & Vasquez: 1.9 combined.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

7.6 WAR 2022-2024.  Jeffers & Vasquez: 1.9 combined.

Wasn't much of a WAR. 

 

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Wasn't much of a WAR. 

 

better than Jeffers & Vasquez

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

better than Jeffers & Vasquez

It was a weak attempt at a joke. Playing on WAR with... you know actual war between the countries of Moreno and Jefquez. 

I'll try again with something else down the road. Can't guarantee it will be better.