Poised for a Breakout: The Twins Should Consider a Joe Ryan Extension

[Cody Christie]

Many of the Twins’ top young players are inching closer to free agency. This winter might be the best time to sign Joe Ryan to a team-friendly extension, before he breaks out in 2025. 

 

Image courtesy of © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins have a solid rotation foundation heading into 2025, but stability can be fleeting. Injuries, inconsistency, and expiring contracts can quickly turn strengths into question marks. Joe Ryan has emerged as one of the club's most reliable arms when healthy. With three years of team control remaining, the Twins face a familiar question: Should they look to extend Ryan beyond the 2027 season?

The Twins acquired Ryan from the Tampa Bay Rays for Nelson Cruz’s expiring contract in 2021, and that deal is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided trades in team history. Ryan has emerged as an effective big-league starter with the potential to still develop into an ace. Young, controllable starting pitching can be the lifeblood of a competitive organization, and that’s why it makes sense for the Twins to consider Ryan for an extension. 

Last season, Ryan posted a 3.60 ERA (115 ERA+) with a 0.96 WHIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate. It was arguably his best season at the big-league level, thanks especially to his emerging ability to fill up the strike zone; he walked a career-low 4.3% of opposing batters. In early August, though, he left a start against the Chicago Cubs with a Grade 2 teres major strain behind his right shoulder. The injury ended his season, which meant the Twins were forced to rely on three rookie starters for the remainder of the second half. 

Extending Ryan wouldn’t be about locking down an ace, but solidifying a durable piece of the rotation puzzle. Ryan debuted during his age-25 season, so the Twins already have him under team control into his early 30s. With the growing cost of free-agent pitching, the Twins could strike early and save themselves significant financial headaches in future seasons.

A few recent deals stand out as comparable to what Ryan might look for in an extension:

• Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants): Entering 2023, Webb agreed to a five-year, $90-million extension with the Giants. This deal covers his remaining arbitration years and extends into his free-agent eligibility, ensuring his presence in the Giants' rotation through at least the 2028 season.
• Luis Castillo (Seattle Mariners): After acquiring him at the 2022 trade deadline, the Mariners locked up Castillo on a five-year, $108-million deal with a vesting option for a sixth year. Castillo was a year closer to free agency than Ryan is, but the example is illustrative, especially because Castillo is a fellow low-slot slinger with a riding fastball and a tight slider.
• Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates): Keller and the Pirates agreed to a five-year, $77-million extension on Feb. 22, 2024. He was coming off an All-Star season and is only a couple months older than Ryan. This extension covers his arbitration period and secures his role with the team into his early free-agent years.

Why Joe Ryan Would Want to Sign an Extension
While some players prefer to bet on themselves in arbitration, Ryan has compelling reasons to consider an early deal:

• Injury Concerns: Ryan has missed time in the last two seasons, including extended IL stints. An extension would provide financial security in case future injuries derail his trajectory.
• Age: Ryan is older than most players with his level of service time, due to his non-traditional path to the majors. He would hit free agency in his early 30s, a risky age for pitchers seeking long-term deals.
• Rising Market for Starters: Extensions are increasingly popular among pitchers looking to avoid the uncertainty of arbitration and free agency. A deal now could offer Ryan both stability and a fair value for his contributions.

Why the Twins Would Want to Sign Him Long-Term
For Minnesota, an extension for Ryan makes sense for several reasons:

1. Cost Certainty: By locking Ryan in now, the Twins can avoid escalating arbitration salaries and secure a predictable payroll figure for years to come.
2. Rotation Stability: Minnesota has helped Ryan develop into a playoff-caliber starter, and the club will need long-term solutions in the rotation. While prospects like David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson offer promise, Ryan provides proven value.
3. Team-Friendly Upside: If Ryan continues to improve, especially as he refines his fastball usage, the Twins could benefit from significant surplus value on an early extension. He’s already shown a knack for missing bats and generating weak contact, two hallmarks of a reliable starter.
4. Avoiding the Free Agent Market: Finding dependable mid-rotation arms in free agency can be expensive. Ryan’s potential free-agent price tag could exceed what the Twins are willing to pay, making an extension a proactive move.

The Twins have no immediate pressure to extend Ryan, but waiting could be costly. If Ryan stays healthy and continues to perform, his arbitration salaries will rise, and his free-agent value will soar. An extension would allow Minnesota to mitigate that risk while rewarding one of their most productive pitchers.

For Ryan, an early deal offers financial security and the chance to be a cornerstone of the Twins’ rotation. For Minnesota, it’s an opportunity to lock in a reliable starter at a manageable price, which is a move that has paid dividends for other organizations. The Twins could also approach Bailey Ober with a similar contract extension. 

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If the Twins believe Ryan can anchor their rotation for the next several years, a well-timed extension could be a win-win for both sides. Should the Twins extend Ryan? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Doctor Gast]

I'm a big anti-FA fan. It makes much more sense to extend key players who want to be here & be part of what's going on. Instead of letting them go & going out & paying big bucks to sign an expensive FA that might not even want to be here. 

But Falvey loves to be courted by FOs who are drooling over our players. What he probably likes even more is courting FAs & throwing big money at them. So he's not big in extending players.

[TwinsDr2021]

Joe Ryan doesn't become a UFA until 2028 at age 32.

Logan Webb doesn't become a UFA until 2029 at age 32 after signing his extension.

Mitch Keller doesn't become a UFA until 2029 at age 33 after signing his extension.

These two really aren't a comparison to Joe Ryan, it took those teams doing an extension to keep then though their "prime years"  the Twins already have Ryan for those years.

Luis Castillo was going to be a UFA last year (2024) at age 31 a little bit similar but I think it is probably fairly obvious Castillo was a better/more established pitcher than Ryan.

Then there is the fact that almost every article talks about dumpster diving because the Twins are limited by payroll and yet are going to spend 20 million plus a year on a starting pitcher on the wrong side of 30? 

I mean if the Twins were going to do something like this, why didn't they just sign Gray to the deal he got? he got three 3 years 25 million locking him up to age 36, basically what you are asking them to do with Ryan.

IMO mid market teams shouldn't be extending guys on the wrong side of 30, the real article should be when do the Twins trade Ryan (2025), Ober (2026) and Pablo (2027)?  You don't need to extend guys isn't that what the amazing Twins pitching pipeline is for?

 

 

[Linus]

Again these articles need to include specific age of player and arb years. I think the author is not including specific information (early thirties) because he knows it’s not a great idea but has to write something.  There is no way the Twins should do this. They have him through his prime and can trade him or put the QO on him. Same thing with Ober but I’m sure we will see the same article soon. 

[jmlease1]

I'd love to lock Joe Ryan up to a long-term deal, but I doubt it happens this season with the Pohlads trying to sell the team and likely wanting to keep the books clean. Their penurious nature as well limits the flexibility in drafting the contract as well; does anyone think that they would be willing to include any kind of signing bonus or other similar type of mechanism that would make it more attractive to Ryan? Hells bells, I'm terrified of any trade to free up payroll, especially involving one of our most expensive contracts, because I'm seriously concerned that the Pohlads will choose to pocket the savings on their way out the door.

But I'm a big fan of Joe Ryan, and even if he can't make the leap to a #1 starter, there's no doubt in my mind that he can at least be a #2 on a playoff team, someone who should be trusted to start in a playoff game and give the team a serious chance to win. Plus, he's fun to watch. Works quickly, throws strikes, has a different set of mechanics, and has shown he can get deep into a game. Ryan paired with Lopez and Ober are a big reason I feel the Twins can compete in 2025 and beyond.

[In My La Z boy]

MLB Network has a crawl going saying Twins are listening to offers on Lopez.

If we trade Pablo, extending either Ryan or Ober may happen? 

I guess I don't like this but if we get a motherload for him? Not sure what "motherload" means?

Not the best shedding salary idea I've heard. 

 

[twinstalker]

Why would the Twins extend an injured player?  I haven't understood why or how people think a problem like his is simply going to disappear.  My feeling is it either reappears or creates other issues. 

Also, it's pretty clear this front office believe pitching is fungible.  They extended Pablo, but they sort of had to, plus they made a big trade for him relatively close to his free agency.  I think the general plan is to replace expensive pitching with that in the pipeline.  If Ryan has three more years left, and the Twins are developing pitching like they seem to be, I don't see this being a thing.

[Original_JB]

I disagree with the "breakout" part. I like Joe Ryan a lot, but IMO, his 'game' relies on his mechanics/form moreso than overpowering people. That said, I think he's a very solid pitcher in a Brad Radke sort of way, and I'm expecting several (hopefully) more years of this same level of quality pitching, but "breakout", no, I think we will continue to get what we've seen so far, and that is just fine.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm a big anti-FA fan. It makes much more sense to extend key players who want to be here & be part of what's going on. Instead of letting them go & going out & paying big bucks to sign an expensive FA that might not even want to be here. 

But Falvey loves to be courted by FOs who are drooling over our players. What he probably likes even more is courting FAs & throwing big money at them. So he's not big in extending players.

Team has signed an in-house guy in Buxton. They signed Correa… granted, a big deal. Only two big signings ……other than Josh Donaldson that I can remember under Falvey………do we really think Falvey, with the Twin’s financial history, is out “courting FA’s”?? “Throwing big money at them”????

Keeping guys is commendable and I would think would help build a solid culture. Bottom line is the Team is For Sale and this conjecture of extending guys is a non-starter at this point.

[Otaknam]

The comparison of Ryan to Brad Radke is valid, a really solid starter who will hopefully give you 30 starts and at least 180 innings. But with three years of team control until he is 32, an extension doesn’t make sense, especially with the cheap Pohlads trying to sell the team. And the FO likes to brand itself as a pitcher development pipeline, with a stable of cheaper starters always ready to emerge, like Morris, Festa, Matthews and Maya. So trading Ryan in 2-3 years at the deadline to acquire younger players is the likely strategy going forward, unless a new owner wants to actually win. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

I disagree with the "breakout" part. I like Joe Ryan a lot, but IMO, his 'game' relies on his mechanics/form moreso than overpowering people. That said, I think he's a very solid pitcher in a Brad Radke sort of way, and I'm expecting several (hopefully) more years of this same level of quality pitching, but "breakout", no, I think we will continue to get what we've seen so far, and that is just fine.

A “breakout” for Joe would be to pitch 175 - 185 innings and last all 6 months of the season on the same level of performance, IMO.

Ober seems to be the more logical guy to extend. More of a 3 pitch mix and not trying to throw too hard - better potential long-term health. They are both effective and both worth considering. Joe’s more recent physical issues make me anxious!

Can’t imagine any extensions to anyone under current ownership though.

[DJL44]

The Twins should want their free agents to get big contracts around age 30 so they can give them the qualifying offer and get the draft pick. Ryan fits this scenario perfectly. They shouldn't be giving big money to pitchers in their mid-30s.

[chpettit19]

As others have pointed out, the Twins already have Ryan (and Ober and Lopez) locked up through his prime. The Twins can't afford to pay for decline years. It's the nice thing about the Correa deal in that his guaranteed years end after his age 33 season. Is it crazy if they buy out 1 or 2 free agent years for Ryan and have him through his age 33 or 34 seasons? No, but also not necessary and is a risk for the money it'll cost. 

I know people are excited for possible new ownership, and so am I, but the Twins are a mid-market team. They can afford the Correa, Buxton, Lopez deals if the team is well run and produces the revenues the market should and gets to the payrolls they should, but the team is still going to need to trade away or QO guys who they have under control through their prime years like Ryan. That's how mid-market teams build sustainable winners. They need to have a continual flow of prospects who can backfill spots and that's a numbers game. Can't fill that just through your own draft picks. Need to add extra picks through the QO and extra prospects through trades. And then need to be top notch in developing those players.

[LambchoP]

There are no extensions coming from these owners, we all know that. With our supposed pitching pipeline we are probably trying to emulate CLE and TB by acquiring cheap controlled pitchers, using them up until they become too expensive and then trading them for more cheap controllable pitchers. It works for those teams year after year.

[tony&rodney]

Money. It always comes down to money. I'm guessing Ryan is willing to go year to year, betting on himself to reach a time when he chooses where he works. The thought crossed my mind that San Diego would exchange Cease for Ryan to save some money. But, that doesn't work either. Money.

Right now, Ryan fits beautifully into the rotation and budget. Sure hope he can sustain health and be effective for 175-200 innings next season.

[Doctor Gast]

54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Team has signed an in-house guy in Buxton. They signed Correa… granted, a big deal. Only two big signings ……other than Josh Donaldson that I can remember under Falvey………do we really think Falvey, with the Twin’s financial history, is out “courting FA’s”?? “Throwing big money at them”????

Keeping guys is commendable and I would think would help build a solid culture. Bottom line is the Team is For Sale and this conjecture of extending guys is a non-starter at this point.

IMO Falvey didn't want to extend Buxton. According to social media, Buxton didn't want to stay, so that was holding up the extension process. Twins got a ton of offers on Buxton & he was good as gone. Pohlads had to step in & say sign him. & low & behold Buxton really wanted to stay in MN. Falvey ended up extending him to what appeared to me for more than he was asking for.

Throwing big money I meant overspending for the player whether big or small. Yet quite often striking out on many big names. Which is fine with me. but that's not to say that he doesn't like to go out there with the big boys. And I agree that extending players at this point is not wise.

[Blyleven2011]

Shoulda , woulda  , coulda ...

Team for sale ( thank god ), Team pinching pennies  , extentions are not happening  at this time due to the pohlads  exploring a sale of the twins ....

When Ohtani signed his mega contract , I posted the pohlads woùld not be able to afford  the price of doing business and a sale was in the future ...

At this time  , no extensions even though it is cost effective  ...

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Falvey didn't want to extend Buxton. According to social media, Buxton didn't want to stay, so that was holding up the extension process. Twins got a ton of offers on Buxton & he was good as gone. Pohlads had to step in & say sign him. & low & behold Buxton really wanted to stay in MN. Falvey ended up extending him to what appeared to me for more than he was asking for.

Throwing big money I meant overspending for the player whether big or small. Yet quite often striking out on many big names. Which is fine with me. but that's not to say that he doesn't like to go out there with the big boys. And I agree that extending players at this point is not wise.

According to reports Buxton wanted to stay so much that he was holding up the deal to get a no trade clause. Not sure where you're getting the "Buxton didn't want to stay" stuff. The front office, lead by Levine who ran contract negotiations while he was here, were in contact with Buxton trying to get things done the entire time. Plenty of articles about this all. Your opinion doesn't seem to be based on very accurate information.

[GNess]

It doesn't deter my loyalty to and support for the Twins, but it gets tiresome to have almost all topics come down to, "The Twins can't -won't do that, but most other successful MLB teams can and will." Sadly those types of takes are generally accurate/the truth.

[DJL44]

With the risk of hijacking the thread, an article about whether to extend Jhoan Duran would be worth reading.

• He's only controlled until age 29
• He's never made any big money either with a signing bonus or through arbitration
• He's coming off a down year so buying low is a possibility
• He's not going to get a qualifying offer as a free agent reliever so that isn't a consideration

This seems like EXACTLY the right time to give him a contract extension that gets him to age 30 or 31.

[Muppet]

If I'm Ryan, there is no way I'd sign now if I had the chance to sign with those weird twin guys from AZ in a year from now. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Reports out today that the Twins have been listening to trade offers on Lopez. I think it would be a mistake to trade Lopez but I'm open depending on the return. If it isn't making us better in 2025 and beyond why continue on this merry go round?

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Reports out today that the Twins have been listening to trade offers on Lopez. I think it would be a mistake to trade Lopez but I'm open depending on the return. If it isn't making us better in 2025 and beyond why continue on this merry go round?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/twins-have-listened-to-trade-offers-on-pablo-lopez.html

Yeah, and there was a different feel to this than the Correa report. Lopez easily provides the Twins the most options in terms of payroll issues and potential return back. There would be a dozen teams bidding for him based on analyst valuations.

[bean5302]

The only reason to ever extend a player or sign them as a free agent is because you can't replace the production from developing prospects.

Joe Ryan's a good pitcher, but expectations of him taking things to the next level at age 29+ seem overly optimistic. With a career 3.92 ERA and 3.85 FIP, he's a 3 WAR kinda guy. Does a 3 WAR pitcher seem out of the realm of reason for Matthews, Festa, Raya, Soto or another prospect to be able to replicate 3 seasons from now?

[sweetmusicviola16]

With the QO in place we essentially have Ryan for four years. His best years. I don't think an extension is on the radar from the Twins. And yeah after four more years we should have replacements on board who will have experience by then. 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

According to reports Buxton wanted to stay so much that he was holding up the deal to get a no trade clause. Not sure where you're getting the "Buxton didn't want to stay" stuff. The front office, lead by Levine who ran contract negotiations while he was here, were in contact with Buxton trying to get things done the entire time. Plenty of articles about this all. Your opinion doesn't seem to be based on very accurate information.

Years have passed & people forget but at the time as I said it was all over social media & it became commonly accepted, that Buxton didn't want to stay because they screwed him over & that he wanted to test the waters (it was a lie that somebody started) as I said it was a shock to many (including myself who clamored for Buxton) that Buxton really wanted to stay when negotiations seriously started. People conveniently forget what they don't want to remember. Where is your accurate information that prior to actual serious negotiations that it was common knowledge that Buxton wanted to stay that you are basing your opinion on. There was a lot of doubt because what should have taken a short time if both parties were interested to complete the extension, instead took over a year. So if Buxton was very interested in signing why did it take so long? & FO were so interested in extending Buxton why did they balk at a no-trade deal? That is what is confusing to me.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

Years have passed & people forget but at the time as I said it was all over social media & it became commonly accepted, that Buxton didn't want to stay because they screwed him over & that he wanted to test the waters (it was a lie that somebody started) as I said it was a shock to many (including myself who clamored for Buxton) that Buxton really wanted to stay when negotiations seriously started. People conveniently forget what they don't want to remember. Where is your accurate information that prior to actual serious negotiations that it was common knowledge that Buxton wanted to stay that you are basing your opinion on. There was a lot of doubt because what should have taken a short time if both parties were interested to complete the extension, instead took over a year. So if Buxton was very interested in signing why did it take so long? & FO were so interested in extending Buxton why did they balk at a no-trade deal? That is what is confusing to me.

Why would I care what was all over social media and you now openly admit was a lie? You stated your opinion was that Falvey didn't want to extend Buxton. I said all the information we have suggests that's incorrect. It took over 4 years to get the contract done, actually. His injuries mixed with superstar production was a large part of it. But both sides were very open afterwards that they all stayed in very close contact and negotiated for over 4 years. It took 7 rounds of negotiations to get it done (according to this Dan Hayes article).

Escalators and incentives for millions of dollars are complicated things. If he wins the MVP in year 1 does that boost his base pay for the remainder of the deal? By how much? If we give you a no trade clause can that escalator go away? Or lower? Is the NTC good for the whole deal of just the first 3 years? Both sides can be interested and still not get something done. The Astros likely wanted Bregman back and Bregman very likely wanted to go back there, but it sure looks like he's going elsewhere. Same with Correa and the Astros. Wanting the same thing and wanting the same thing at the same cost are two very, very different things.

I didn't say anything about "common knowledge." And the serious negotiations happened for multiple years. You made claims about social media saying Buxton didn't want to be here and then said you thought Falvey extended him for more than Buxton was asking for. What's that based on? And, again, Levine ran contract negotiations while he was here. Was actually very well publicized that he ran the Buxton negotiations. So, he's the one you want to point the finger at if you think they gave Buxton more than he was asking for. If you don't believe me maybe you'll believe Buxton's agent Al Goetz who was quoted as saying "Thad was the front-runner, he was the guy who pioneered the whole thing. … Our willingness to be open all the way through this and Thad saying ‘I’m not giving up’ (got this done).'" 

Buxton can be interested in staying but still want to get paid $100+ million. If the FO isn't offering that then he's not just going to sign because he likes it here. The team can want him here and not just offer him an NTC just because they like him. They aren't giving up their ability to manipulate their roster as they see fit just because they like him. These contracts are complicated things, and his was even more because of his injuries. They take time and sometimes don't get done. It's the same for every team.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan?

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The only reason to ever extend a player or sign them as a free agent is because you can't replace the production from developing prospects.

If you can buy an asset for less than market value you should. Trade the player later if you have to.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't say anything about "common knowledge." And the serious negotiations happened for multiple years. You made claims about social media saying Buxton didn't want to be here and then said you thought Falvey extended him for more than Buxton was asking for. What's that based on?

It's based on "I made it up because it supports my opinion"