Twins Fans: You’re Gonna Get Amed Rosario and You’re Gonna Like It

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If he can actually play defense, then he's a generalist, not a specialist. That's a 4-tool player (field, run, throw, hit for average).

And now I'll expand on whether Rosario can actually play defense. Probably not. He has been a below average defender his entire career and appears to be getting worse. He's 12th percentile on Statcast in Fielding Run Value. He can't play SS and is only okay at 2B. He gets good marks for speed and arm and bad marks for actually catching the ball in the outfield.

Pluses - makes contact, good baserunning, fast, strong arm

Minuses - bad defender, low power, doesn't walk, chases pitches outside the zone

The Twins can afford to have a bench player with a below average bat and an excellent glove. That player would complement their starters. I don't see a reason to roster a player who is below average in everything but speed.

[Brett]

Honestly, I’d rather see Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Michael Helman take those at-bats. At some point, we need to take a risk to tap into upside potential.

[Schmoeman5]

" he's not going to play centerfield and he's looked iffy in the outfield"  That's a perfect fit. Answers all of Falvey and Baldellis needs and the constant TD posters whose response to anyone athletic. Hey just put him in the OF. He's not bad. He just needs more time out there. He'll figure it out. 

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Beats using not-ready-for-primetime rookies. If he can actually play defense, then he's a generalist, not a specialist. That's a 4-tool player (field, run, throw, hit for average).

I'm not sure who was prevented from playing last season. Pretty much every rookie who truly performed in AAA got a shot. Some who were only okay in AAA got a shot.

How do you bust out of this cycle of low bar dependence? If you can't develop players you are in constant need of these low bar guys to fill out the roster. If you don't have the money to bring in actual complete major league players via free agency... you have to develop your way out of it and our development program is busy spitting out left handers who require an additional roster spot taken up by Low Bar Rosario types. How do you bust out of that cycle? 

You can't... it's a rabbit hole with no end in sight. 

Wallner, Larnach and Julien can't bust you out of this cycle of low bar-ness because they will perpetually require the low-bar guy to handcuff to them. Once you roster Mr. Low Bar for this role... what happens when Larnach gets hurt and they call up Erod?

Here's what happens... Erod gets attached to Mr. Low Bar because Mr. Low Bar is on the roster for one reason... to face lefties so Erod will have to concede those lefty AB's and you've got another Wallner or Larnach on your hands who is then sent down when Larnach returns and your development continues to be compromised. 

What happens when Mr. Low Bar Rosario gets hurt. Just let Larnach hit lefties now... No... they won't do that... Miranda or Martin will be the new short side and now you have developing right handed hitters who are compromised. 

Who was prevented from playing last season? I don't know... I won't pretend to know. Larnach and Wallner are two that were compromised for the privilage of Margot on the roster. Miranda hit better against right handers and was held to face left handers because of the presence of Larnach and Wallner and Julien on the roster. 

Kiersay only got 13 AB's... there's one from AAA but I'm not going to claim that I know what Keirsay would have done and I don't think anyone here is able to makes any claims either... but I'll say this... The people who think that Kiersay got an opportunity or don't think that Kiersay deserved an opportunity.... are probably the same people who say things like... Rooker... Oh Well... It happens. 

 

[CRF]

Getting him would be pretty much right in Falvey's wheelhouse. Sad state of affairs for our team. 

[Unwinder]

50 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Cleveland just traded their starting second baseman. And the turned around and traded someone they had just got in return. 

Chicago just traded their ace. 

There's no FA window and Trade window. There's the offseason. 

Sure, but you traditionally get more trade partners once a few teams' free agent plans fall through.

Edit: And we're not trading our ace (I hope). Trading for Crotchet was clearly Boston's Plan-A. Whoever trades for Paddack or whoever is only going to do it after some other options come off the board.

[jmlease1]

I can't think of an article more designed to bring the "I hate Falvey/Rocco" people on this board out in force this year.

not seeing a roster spot for Amed Rosario on this team: he's not really a 1B, has limited experience in the OF and can't play CF. he's only a fit if Castro gets traded. Maybe that happens, maybe not but until it does Amed Rosario ain't gonna be a Twin.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Exactly the type of player I expect the Twins to target this off-season.

And I'm willing to place a bet right now: If the Twins sign him for his ability to hit left handers and this is why he will be signed. 

He will face more right handers than left handers. Any takers? 

Career .669 OPS against Right Handed Pitchers. .657 against righties last year. 

 

No way I take that bet.

[TopGunn#22]

That's why I like Jose Iglesias more than Rosario.  Especially if Castro is packaged in a trade to save money and add to an area we have an acute need.  Iglesias would really help our IF defense and as I've said, if Lee and Julien falter, or Keaschall needs a little more time with the elbow, the Twins could get by with Iglesias starting a 2B for an extended time and benefit from the defensive upgrade immediately. 

Depending on what trades the Twins actually make, Iglesias and Austin Hays be two solid signings from a depth perspective for the IF and Corner OF/RH hitter standpoint.  Hays has been a good OF in the past who slipped a little in 2024.  I think it's more a matter of nagging injuries last year than his defensive ability falling off a cliff.  On a one-year deal, he fills the bill as a RH Corner OF bat who provides a platoon option with Wallner, Larnach and eventually E-Rod when he gets promoted.  

I consider Hays a much better alternative than Refsnyder, Gallo, Margot et all.  But guys like Hays and even an affordable Iglesias ($1.5-2.0 million) cannot be added until the Vasquez/Paddack and even Castro moves are made.  The Twins wouldn't really be adding Iglesias unless Castro was traded or given the fulltime LF position with Larnach DH'ing.  

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

How do you bust out of this cycle of low bar dependence? If you can't develop players you are in constant need of these low bar guys to fill out the roster. If you don't have the money to bring in actual complete major league players via free agency... you have to develop your way out of it and our development program is busy spitting out left handers who require an additional roster spot taken up by Low Bar Rosario types. How do you bust out of that cycle? 

You can't... it's a rabbit hole with no end in sight. 

Wallner, Larnach and Julien can't bust you out of this cycle of low bar-ness because they will perpetually require the low-bar guy to handcuff to them. Once you roster Mr. Low Bar for this role... what happens when Larnach gets hurt and they call up Erod?

Here's what happens... Erod gets attached to Mr. Low Bar because Mr. Low Bar is on the roster for one reason... to face lefties so Erod will have to concede those lefty AB's and you've got another Wallner or Larnach on your hands who is then sent down when Larnach returns and your development continues to be compromised. 

What happens when Mr. Low Bar Rosario gets hurt. Just let Larnach hit lefties now... No... they won't do that... Miranda or Martin will be the new short side and now you have developing right handed hitters who are compromised. 

Who was prevented from playing last season? I don't know... I won't pretend to know. Larnach and Wallner are two that were compromised for the privilate of Margot on the roster.

Kiersay only got 13 AB's... there's one from AAA but I'm not going to claim that I know what Keirsay would have done and I don't think anyone here is able to makes any claims either... but I'll say this... The people who think that Kiersay got an opportunity or don't think that Kiersay deserved an opportunity. Are probably the same people say things like... Rooker... Oh Well... It happens. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez is supposed to be able to play defense. They'll put up with his numbers against LHP if he can catch the ball. They did with Max Kepler.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If he can play good defense a .670 OPS vs RHP is perfectly acceptable for your utility player.

Except he will get 550 PAs as Mr utility.

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

How do you bust out of this cycle of low bar dependence? If you can't develop players you are in constant need of these low bar guys to fill out the roster. If you don't have the money to bring in actual complete major league players via free agency... you have to develop your way out of it and our development program is busy spitting out left handers who require an additional roster spot taken up by Low Bar Rosario types. How do you bust out of that cycle? 

You can't... it's a rabbit hole with no end in sight. 

Wallner, Larnach and Julien can't bust you out of this cycle of low bar-ness because they will perpetually require the low-bar guy to handcuff to them. Once you roster Mr. Low Bar for this role... what happens when Larnach gets hurt and they call up Erod?

Here's what happens... Erod gets attached to Mr. Low Bar because Mr. Low Bar is on the roster for one reason... to face lefties so Erod will have to concede those lefty AB's and you've got another Wallner or Larnach on your hands who is then sent down when Larnach returns and your development continues to be compromised. 

What happens when Mr. Low Bar Rosario gets hurt. Just let Larnach hit lefties now... No... they won't do that... Miranda or Martin will be the new short side and now you have developing right handed hitters who are compromised. 

Who was prevented from playing last season? I don't know... I won't pretend to know. Larnach and Wallner are two that were compromised for the privilate of Margot on the roster.

Kiersay only got 13 AB's... there's one from AAA but I'm not going to claim that I know what Keirsay would have done and I don't think anyone here is able to makes any claims either... but I'll say this... The people who think that Kiersay got an opportunity or don't think that Kiersay deserved an opportunity. Are probably the same people say things like... Rooker... Oh Well... It happens. 

 

This. That’s why my #1 move would be to trade for a cost controlled right handed hitting outfielder that doesn’t need to be platooned. Preferably one that can catch a batted ball. Let Miranda play first and we now have cut the platoon monkey business way down. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Like every other club they have made moves that worked out well and others that have not.  Who is pretending the Twins are good at it?  Under Baldelli they have a .525 win %. Not great, not bad. 

525 win % is great for a TC manager.  

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

That's why I like Jose Iglesias more than Rosario.  Especially if Castro is packaged in a trade to save money and add to an area we have an acute need.  Iglesias would really help our IF defense and as I've said, if Lee and Julien falter, or Keaschall needs a little more time with the elbow, the Twins could get by with Iglesias starting a 2B for an extended time and benefit from the defensive upgrade immediately. 

Depending on what trades the Twins actually make, Iglesias and Austin Hays be two solid signings from a depth perspective for the IF and Corner OF/RH hitter standpoint.  Hays has been a good OF in the past who slipped a little in 2024.  I think it's more a matter of nagging injuries last year than his defensive ability falling off a cliff.  On a one-year deal, he fills the bill as a RH Corner OF bat who provides a platoon option with Wallner, Larnach and eventually E-Rod when he gets promoted.  

I consider Hays a much better alternative than Refsnyder, Gallo, Margot et all.  But guys like Hays and even an affordable Iglesias ($1.5-2.0 million) cannot be added until the Vasquez/Paddack and even Castro moves are made.  The Twins wouldn't really be adding Iglesias unless Castro was traded or given the fulltime LF position with Larnach DH'ing.  

I truly hope Iglesias is too expensive for the Twins. He deserves at least Carlos Santana money. 

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Brett said:

Honestly, I’d rather see Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Michael Helman take those at-bats. At some point, we need to take a risk to tap into upside potential.

I see three potential rookies with actual upside potential - Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall. If they want to give playing time to develop those guys, then I'm okay with the decision. Betting on Helman, Keirsey and Martin is a loser bet.

They never give a straight answer (so they can't be held accountable) but the plan for the infield appears to be 3B Lee, SS Correa, 2B Lewis, 1B Miranda. UT Castro. I'm fine with that if they add a good outfielder so they're not using Julien as the everyday DH.

[Parfigliano]

47 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

This is correct; he’s exactly the type of player Falvey will sign and Baldelli will play every day. I can’t agree when you have Lee that can play all IF positions except 1B. They have Miranda that can fill in at 1B and 3B also. Go get a RH outfielder instead that has demonstrated good-great defense. They already have Kiersey. If they don’t like him and the cheap players they have, why not trade them if there isn’t a path to MLB roster? It’s exasperating to watch bench players play everyday. Julien is not an option for any position, including DH. Please trade or release him to clear roster space ASAP. 

I'll say it again Julien will shine this year.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Friend, Falvey's idea of being creative is putting everybody up for sale then sit back & wait. We'll get crappy deals for players we need to move & any good player they might offer a trade that looks good on paper but in reality, isn't. Then with the savings go out & get a Margot or Gallo. I know it doesn't make sense & that it's an oxymoron but that's how he thinks.

I just can't cut the the owners , FO , manager and coaches any slack ...

I love my twins but they could have better players  if they prepared them better , spring training is 2 months away , watch them play the rookies and dumpster divers and the veterans  will be on the back fields  most of the spring , they may play home games but they rarely travel on the bus across state ...

The veterans get off to slow starts because they don't get enough live pitching to get their timing right ...

I won't see it happen this year  because I'm not spending any of my money on twins fest , spring training or target field tickets until we get an owner that wants to win ...

But I will take gifts ...

[Riverbrian]

48 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Emmanuel Rodriguez is supposed to be able to play defense. They'll put up with his numbers against LHP if he can catch the ball. They did with Max Kepler.

Not true: Kepler was only kept out of it when they had more left handers then they could handcuff. As soon as  the number of left handed hitters dropped down to three. When Julien was sent down. Kepler was also demoted to no longer facing left handers.   

You have to maintain the 1 righthanded hitter 1 left handed hitter partnerships. You are locked in. You can't escape it.

If a left handed hitter is allowed to hit against left handed pitching... THERE IS NO PURPOSE for the short sided Right handed Mr. Low Bar anymore. Therefore if Larnach gets hurt and Erod comes up. Erod has to assume the Larnach role. If the club says... we are only going to treat Larnach this way and Erod is special so he plays everyday against both hands! What is the purpose of the short sided right handed guy that you spent 4 million dollars on when Erod joins?

I'll bet you money right now... that Erod will platoon unless there are 3 other left handed hitters on the roster. The main reason that Erod will platoon besides this extreme fear of lefty vs lefty... is because of the roster presence of Mr. Low Bar. Mr. Low Bar is on the roster for this specific reason. To Hit against lefties. If you let the lefty hit against lefties. Mr. Low Bar is no longer necessary. 

You lock into this roster construction... you can't get out of it. Then the injuries come and now you have Dogs pretending to be Cats because the Mr. Low Bar is facing right handers more often then left handers which negates any platoon advantage that you gain. 

[Blyleven2011]

16 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I'll say it again Julien will shine this year.

I'll remember you said that ...

I hope your right , but me personally  thinks he won't start the season on 26 man roster  , he has to earn it back in St Paul  , he had a real bad second year  ...

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

This is correct; he’s exactly the type of player Falvey will sign and Baldelli will play every day. I can’t agree when you have Lee that can play all IF positions except 1B. They have Miranda that can fill in at 1B and 3B also. Go get a RH outfielder instead that has demonstrated good-great defense. They already have Kiersey. If they don’t like him and the cheap players they have, why not trade them if there isn’t a path to MLB roster? It’s exasperating to watch bench players play everyday. Julien is not an option for any position, including DH. Please trade or release him to clear roster space ASAP. 

Cue MAT.

[bean5302]

Ahmed Rosario is NOT a utility player. He's a shortstop who plugged an emergency hole a couple times, but he had never been deployed as a utility guy until the Rays decided to see how it worked, and Rosario was a disaster in the outfield. Rosario played 7 games in his entire MiLB career at 3B. SS was the only position he ever played.

2017 - 100% SS
2018 - 100% SS
2019 -  99.8% SS, 0.2% CF
2020 - 100% SS
2021 - 89.2% SS, 10.8% CF
2022 - 96.5% SS, 3.5% LF
2023 - 81.1% SS, 18.9% 2B 
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/amed-rosario/15518/stats?position=SS

Quick crash course on defensive stuff for people who don't know. 
DRS = Defensive Runs Saved. Preferred metric for Baseball Reference
UZR/150 = Ultimate Zone Rating over 150 games. My preferred advanced metric because it's much more stable than the other two, and it projects over a full year.
OAA = Outs Above Average - (Statcast/MLB) Fangraphs' preferred metric.
RngR = I highlighted this in the outfield for Rosario because his range is a huge problem. Notice how Rosario's range in CF is actually better than the corners. That's because CF is easier to play as balls don't slice and hook as much in CF, there's just way more ground to cover. The reason Rosario is terrible in the corners is he can't read the ball off the bat or the ball's trajectory well so he gets a super late jump on it or runs bad routes because he has never been an outfielder.

I'm not saying there is no possible way the Twins would sign a SS who can't hit well, and try to deploy him as a utility player, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Also, the Pohlads signing off any any free agents before Falvey purges some salary seems unlikely to me. The ownership proved they were unwilling to even expand payroll a small amount over budget last year at the deadline.

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Exactly the type of player I expect the Twins to target this off-season.

And I'm willing to place a bet right now: If the Twins sign him for his ability to hit left handers and this is why he will be signed. 

He will face more right handers than left handers. Any takers? 

Career .669 OPS against Right Handed Pitchers. .657 against righties last year. 

 

You're absolutely right. And that's where Baldelli and his strategy is to blame. He's made moves as early as the 1st inning but generally it's around the 5th inning. Then he'll sub in for his rh hitter to get at least 1 AB vs same handed hitters but often twice. Opposing managers don't have any issues with implementing game plans when they're playing the Twins. And I'm not putting all the blame on Rocco since this is an organizational MO.

[LewFordLives]

Speaking of Donovan Solano.....why not sign him to platoon at first? He was ok with the Twins, he put up decent numbers in limited action with the Padres, he's right-handed, he's probably cheap, and he's available.  

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Speaking of Donovan Solano.....why not sign him to platoon at first? He was ok with the Twins, he put up decent numbers in limited action with the Padres, he's right-handed, he's probably cheap, and he's available.  

Miranda is right-handed, cheap and already on the roster

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I see three potential rookies with actual upside potential - Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall. If they want to give playing time to develop those guys, then I'm okay with the decision. Betting on Helman, Keirsey and Martin is a loser bet.

But so is betting on Rosario. We're talking about a slap hitter who somehow only managed to draw !9! walks last year.

This is Ben Revere/Willians Astudillo levels of frustratingly empty plate appearances.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

You're absolutely right. And that's where Baldelli and his strategy is to blame. He's made moves as early as the 1st inning but generally it's around the 5th inning. Then he'll sub in for his rh hitter to get at least 1 AB vs same handed hitters but often twice. Opposing managers don't have any issues with implementing game plans when they're playing the Twins. And I'm not putting all the blame on Rocco since this is an organizational MO.

Yep... and there we are... Down 1 Run in the 9th inning... you could cut the tension with a knife. Right Handed Closer X on the mound. The low percentage play of Margot coming to the plate because Trevor is no longer an option. You and I both know that Trevor is a much better choice to square off against Liam Hendricks at the end of the game when there is no tomorrow but he was taken out in the 5th with a 6th inning, 7th, 8th and 9th inning tomorrow. Lifted for a pinch hitter with the bases empty in a tie game with 4 innings to play to avoid the left hander who will pitch one inning.    

This year... It won't be Margot and his 0 for 3 million pinch hitting. 

This year it will be the Margot replacement of possibly Rosario and the year after that it will be Rosario replacement. And the year after that it will be the replacement of the replacement of Rosario and you've grown nothing. 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But so is betting on Rosario. We're talking about a slap hitter who somehow only managed to draw !9! walks last year.

This is Ben Revere/Willians Astudillo levels of frustratingly empty plate appearances.

Martin is a loser bet so let's take the guy who is a proven loser bet. It's not even a bet because he has proven it... however... I guess there is value in the experienced loser because we know for sure what we are going to get.  

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But so is betting on Rosario. We're talking about a slap hitter who somehow only managed to draw !9! walks last year.

This is Ben Revere/Willians Astudillo levels of frustratingly empty plate appearances.

I'm with you on Rosario. He's not the guy.

Quote

I don't see a reason to roster a player who is below average in everything but speed.

 

[tony&rodney]

Stated too often .... payroll reductions must occur before any additions and a catcher must be identified before a catcher can be dealt. 

If the above issues are solved, which should be easily enough accomplished, we can proceed to add players. Depending on the amount of payroll available, Jose Iglesias and Austin Hays seem like sound choices. However, I expect at least $4M for JI and $7M for Hays. The 3 most oft-mentioned names, Vazquez, Paddack, and Castro reduce payroll by $23.7M, but it is unlikely all of CV's contract is picked up. Adding JI, AH, and a rookie costs around $12M. The budget of $130M and current number of around $140M makes these moves tight but possible depending on Vazquez. 

I liked the tone and upbeat nature of this article but Rosario looked a little sad last year.

[nicksaviking]

47 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Martin is a loser bet so let's take the guy who is a proven loser bet. It's not even a bet because he has proven it... however... I guess there is value in the experienced loser because we know for sure what we are going to get.  

Yeah, I'm not high on Martin at all, but when it comes to not getting the job done, I'll take the unknown over the known.