This Creative Challenge Trade Could Alleviate Multiple Problems for the Twins

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins must free up money and acquire a serviceable left-handed reliever. I must stop being Ahab to Brennan Bernardino's Moby Dick. This potential creative challenge trade could achieve all three things.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

 

One thing stands true as Twins Territory delves deep into the holiday season: The front office has no money to play with. This unfortunate reality will continually be brought to the front of the minds of those who follow the Twins, as players like Blake Snell (who would have been an immaculate addition to Minnesota's rotation) sign for $36.4 million per year with the Dodgers. However, not all is bleak, and there are plenty of ways the organization can improve on the margins as they attempt to return to the postseason in 2025.

If the Twins are to make those improvements, however, they will need to shed payroll. While crucial cogs of the Twins' ability to succeed next season (Pablo López, Willi Castro, or Ryan Jeffers) could be offloaded to alleviate ownership-imposed salary restrictions, the front office is more likely to part ways with their two fungible, expensive veterans to achieve that goal: Chris Paddack or Christian Vázquez. Here is what the two auxiliary players are due next season:

• Paddack - $7.5 million
• Vázquez - $10 million

While parting ways with Vázquez and his $10 million obligation would provide the front office significant wiggle room, the organization's catching depth is alarmingly thin beyond him and Jeffers, meaning the 34-year-old veteran backstop will likely begin his 11th season in MLB with the Twins. That being the case, Minnesota's most plausible method of achieving payroll flexibility is offloading Paddack's contract. Despite suffering multiple severe arm injuries that have limited him to appearing in just 25 games for the Twins the prior three seasons, Paddack (and his cheap price tag for non-salary-restricted teams) should draw significant interest on the trade market, especially after witnessing not-too-dissimilar pitchers Frankie Montas (two years, $34 million) and Matthew Boyd (two years, $29 million) receive contracts worth nearly twice what Paddack will earn next season.

Various teams like the Milwaukee Brewers and Oakland, er, Sacramento A's could be viable landing spots for "The Sherriff." However, one potential partner could offer a package that would benefit the Twins in multiple fashions: the Boston Red Sox. According to FanGraphs, Boston's starting rotation is projected with the following five arms:

1. Tanner Houck
2. Brayan Bello
3. Kutter Crawford
4. Richard Fitts
5. Cooper Criswell

Veterans Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock are recovering from Tommy John surgery (Whitlock received the internal brace) and aren't expected to be ready to rejoin the team by Opening Day. Like Minnesota, the Red Sox's starting rotation is top-heavy, headlined by intriguing arms in Houck, Bello, and Crawford. Then, uncertainty arises. Fitts and Criswell are viable back-end rotation arms, but (like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews) a postseason-hopeful team would prefer to enter the season with them as the first line of defense at Triple A, rather than penciled in as the fourth and fifth starters. Boston has been linked to frontline arms Corbin Burnes and Max Fried this offseason. Still, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow would be wise to add multiple veteran arms, and Paddack would fit the bill.

Despite currently possessing a shaky rotation, Boston's bullpen is a bona fide strength, headlined by high-leverage arms Liam Hendriks, Justin Slaten, and the recently signed Aroldis Chapman. The acquisition of Chapman makes fellow Sox lefty reliever Brennan Bernardino expendable, and Twins decision-makers should target him as the return for Paddack. Bernardino, 32, netted a 4.06 ERA, 4.15 FIP, and 106 ERA+ over 51 innings pitched (IP) with Boston last season. The Cal State Dominguez Hills product also posted a 56-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Bernardino's numbers don't pop off the page at first glance. However, what makes the 32-year-old southpaw intriguing is that he is effective against batters of both handednesses. Here are his 2024 splits:

• vs. LHB: .234/.291/.430 opponent slash line, 29 IP, 118 batters faced, 25 hits, five home runs, 17 earned runs, seven walks, 33 strikeouts
• vs. RHB: .284/.407/.375 opponent slash line, 22 IP, 108 BF, 25 hits, one home run, six earned runs, 15 walks, 23 strikeouts

Bernardino is an east-west pitcher who utilizes his sinker and cutter against hitters on either side. Last season, he used his slider only 7% of the time. That said, the slider-enamored Twins pitching development staff would likely attempt to fortify that pitch and make it a more prominent element of his repertoire. Minnesota doesn't often pursue pitchers who rely on a sinker-cutter duo. Still, the front office pursued Justin Topa (a groundball-reliant reliever) last offseason, meaning they could be bucking the trend of reliever archetypes they value. Bernardino would immediately step in as the team's best left-handed reliever, meaning younger left-handed relievers like Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, and Jovani Morán (if healthy) could begin the 2025 season at Triple-A.

Enhancing his attractiveness for the Twins, Bernardino will earn only $800,000 next season. He's under team control until the end of the 2029 MLB season and a minor-league option. Sending Paddack and his $7.5 million price tag to Boston would free up roughly $6.7 million in salary. Minnesota could use that money to pursue a right-handed hitting outfield option like Tommy Pham or a power-hitting first base/corner infielder in Patrick Wisdom. Swapping Paddack for Bernardino and (more importantly) notable salary relief would benefit the Twins in various ways and would be a wise creative challenge trade.

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This one works for me. :)

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Works for me too.  Would add right-handed FA bat I am interested in is Austin Hays to sign.  Our new batting coach should have inside knowledge of him.  He was his coach in Baltimore.  If he is in favor of signing him has a fit for Twins.  He definitely should be a target for the Twins.

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Bernardino makes a lot of sense for the Twins. Seems like his name has popped up quite a bit in recent off-season trade rumors.

[1985Fan]

Makes sense. I wonder if they could include Vazquez as well. The return would be a couple of low level prospect lottery tickets if Boston could eat all of his salary. That said, losing Vasquez would leave a huge hole defensively that would be hard to fill. 
A better plan would be to trade Paddack to Tampa for Diaz. Not sure what would be required to get Diaz, but Paddacks cheap salary should appeal to cost-cutting Tampa.
It would have been great if the Twins could have been in on Jake Berger before Texas, but, once again, Falvey is asleep at the switch or waiting until February to see what’s left. 
I think we can talk trades all we want, but I doubt Falvey will make one trade. I think Rule 5 today and Huascar Ynoa are going to be it for offseason additions. But we can still dream. 

[tony&rodney]

Why not, sure. 

Will Falvey allow Paddack to go in a deal?

[DJL44]

That would be a great deal for the Twins. Bernardino is useful, cheap and has several years of team control.

[Doctor Gast]

BOS has been interested in LHSPs Snell & Fried (too late). They've been also interested in a trade including LHSP Jesus Luzardo. With this idea, I started a 3-way trade with MIA where BOS received Luzardo & we received high-leverage LHRP Nardi & we traded Paddack to BOS. I prefer Nardi

[thelanges5]

Has anyone called Breslow yet?

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This one works for me. :)

Works for me too.  But I am kinda thinking that the very reasons it works for us are the very reasons it wouldn't work for Boston.  An extremely cheap decent LRP with 5 years of control for a starter making 9 times as much and might go down again at any time, not to mention he will be a FA soon, isn't the kind of deal most GM's make.  So.........what else would Boston need to make this work?  I just don't picture them doing a straight up deal.  But I sure hope they do.  😏

[sweetmusicviola16]

But what a stupid thing for management/ownership to reveal before the off-season even began that they have no money to play with. That information being public sure puts you in a strong position when it comes to trying to trade anyone. Such is the state of the Twins.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This one works for me. :)

His WHIP for RH batters is 1.82…….he has success v. RH batters because he walks an inordinate amount (15 BB in 22 innings) and that inflates his OBP v. RH batters to .407. Also, a .284 batting average isn’t very effective coupled with the walks!

Don’t get the “effectiveness v. both sides” point made?

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

His WHIP for RH batters is 1.82…….he has success v. RH batters because he walks an inordinate amount (15 BB in 22 innings) and that inflates his OBP v. RH batters to .407. Also, a .284 batting average isn’t very effective coupled with the walks!

Don’t get the “effectiveness v. both sides” point made?

His numbers are better in 2023 than in 2024. It's possible he could be in due a bit for a bounce back no?

It also wouldn't hurt in this sense to get out of the money to Paddack. I think that's the primary intent here.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Sounds like Boston will be acquiring Crotchett from CWS, so possibly no interest in Paddack. Teel going to CWS.

 

If Paddack gets traded at all my prediction is the A's. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

It might be a good time to send Falvey and Zoll a memo. The off season has begun. Nah, memo paper costs money.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

His numbers are better in 2023 than in 2024. It's possible he could be in due a bit for a bounce back no?

It also wouldn't hurt in this sense to get out of the money to Paddack. I think that's the primary intent here.

It seems to me it’s difficult to get value back for many of our guys on the roster in trades if they are considered only to be traded as an individual.

……….Paddack - Vazquez - Matthews for a young Catcher that’s been in MLB a year plus……as an example.

……….Correa - Miranda - Paddack for T. Casas of Boston?

What do you think about offering Vazquez a “refreshed” contract for ‘25 & ‘26? Add $5M and spread the $15M over 2 years. Can then focus on developing a Catcher internally over next 2 summers. Crazy idea??……. another option is to save $2.5M this year and maybe trade him in ‘26 more easily?

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

It seems to me it’s difficult to get value back for many of our guys on the roster in trades if they are considered only to be traded as an individual.

……….Paddack - Vazquez - Matthews for a young Catcher that’s been in MLB a year plus……as an example.

……….Correa - Miranda - Paddack for T. Casas of Boston?

What do you think about offering Vazquez a “refreshed” contract for ‘25 & ‘26? Add $5M and spread the $15M over 2 years. Can then focus on developing a Catcher internally over next 2 summers. Crazy idea??……. another option is to save $2.5M this year and maybe trade him in ‘26 more easily?

Of the options you laid out I'd prefer a short extension to Paddack. I am not trading Correa, and I'm really not certain I want to add Zebby to a couple of guys who had some value already. I guess that depends on who is coming back. 

[DocBauer]

An .819 OPS against RH batters makes him affective? I'd sure like to know what bad would be.

This deal doesn't work at all for me.

[LambchoP]

I love this trade. Gets us our lefty reliever and frees up some cash. Since Bernadino is under control for like another five years we may have to throw in a low level prospect to get it done, but I say go for it. That said, it makes too much sense so I doubt it'll happen. Falvey and sons seem to be asleep at the wheel and not motivated at all to make any moves. Almost all the teams that needed catchers have already filled that need, meaning Vasquez is going nowhere. Falvey should know by now the twins can't sit back and wait for teams to come to us, he actually needs to pick up the phone and get something started ourselves!

[Otaknam]

We’re back to salary dump mode for the Twins. Target Field was supposed to provide such a great fan experience that the rising attendance would keep the team financially competitive. The predicable outcome is that, while Target Field is great, the big money teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, etc., raise the financial stakes every year, rendering the Twins and others neutered competitively. See Juan Soto or Otani for the most obvious examples of raising the bar financially. Now the Twins look at a $3 million salary as a reason to move on from that player. 

[TopGunn#22]

Year after year, the "Arms Race" in baseball gets more and more intense.  The contracts guys like Montas, Severino and Boyd are signing are just mind-boggling.  I can understand what a guy like Snell or certainly Corbin Burnes would get.  But you look at those middling SP's and their price tag and I gotta say, I'm hanging onto Pablo Lopez for sure!

The Red Sox just acquired Crochet and the primary piece needed to get him was TD trade favorite Kyle Teel.  I still don't really care what, if any, value we get back for Paddack or Vasquez, but I'd love to see how $17.5 million dollars could be used in filling in some big needs/question marks.

We are still looking at a probable trade of Vasquez.  The FA price of catching is showing that Vasquez is slightly overpaid at $10 million.  Even with the acquisition of Crochet, the Red Sox could still use a #5 SP until Giolito is ready.  Paddack could work for them, especially if he could be used in long relief once Giolito is back.  In trading Teel, the Red Sox could be interested in a reunion with Vasquez as a backup to Connor Wong.  

But there has to be a plan, where the groundwork is already laid to get a young catcher in a trade once Vasquez is moved.  With Teel gone, and with the extraordinary catching depth the Dodgers have with Will Smith and Austin Barnes on the roster, and Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya in the minors knocking on the door, a deal needs to made with the Dodgers for either Rushing or Cartaya to pair with Jeffers.  

If something like this can come to pass, the other big move that is no sure thing, but would be the biggest splash the Twins have made in free agency since Nelson Cruz that MUST be pursued is leveraging ALL of our $7.555 million dollars of International Signing Pool money for Japanese RHP Roki Sasaki.  His agent, Joel Wolf just commented yesterday as the Winter Meetings wrapped up, that his client might prefer a "soft landing" (meaning a small-to-mid market team where media isn't as hostile as in a big market).  The Twins have the most International Pool money along with the Reds, Tigers, Brewers, Marlins, A's, Mariners and Rays.  This is not the first time Sasaki's possible preference to playing in a small-to-mid market team has been floated.  I think there is steam there.

The team that concerns me the most in that group is the Tigers.  They are a division foe and we cannot let them be the eventual winners.  I could live with a National League team like the Reds better than a division foe, but really, the Twins have to dig in and pursue this tooth and nail.  A window of opportunity has been opened.  Can you imagine a staff of Lopez, Ryan, Sasaki, Ober and SWR/Festa??  This would allow the Twins to keep Jax in the BP and either keep Duran, or package Duran and Castro in a deal to the Dodgers for Rushing and something else.

Sasaki is a unique opportunity to get a bona fide ROY/All Star Game candidate at a ridiculously low price.  Skip a year of signing multiple players and get an impact guy without having to spend a $50 million dollar posting fee and a $300 million dollar contract.  Japan is an island nation.  Their people love to fish, and I would bet that Sasaki, coming from a small, rural town is a fisherman.  In addition to the $7.555 million in Pool money, I would include a tricked out fishing boat, and get a bevy of local, Twin Cities lake guides to guide him around the metro lakes and show him the "hot spots" for Walleye, Northern and Muskie.  THAT would be "getting creative" from an ownership and front office standpoint. 

Sasaki could find he LOVES living and playing in the Twin Cities area.  And if we only have him for a couple of years, he becomes a tremendous trade asset.  There isn't much optimism for the Twins this off season.  We just left the Winter Meetings with barely a whisper.  There is enough talent on this roster to compete for a division championship, but with a limited budget and obvious needs to fill there needs to be a "will to find a way" from our soon to be gone ownership group and very likely gone FO group if the attitude is toward "standing pat."  

Get what you can for Vasquez and Paddack.  Clear the $17.5 million.  Make a BIG trade that brings back a catcher of the future who is ready or near ready to start playing in 2025.  And shock us all by landing the biggest fish at the most affordable price in Roki Sasaki.  

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

...Roki Sasaki.  

What's your sales pitch to get him to Minnesota? If I was arguing against the Twins I'd say.

The team is being sold so all the people you're negotiating with are lame duck representatives who probably won't be there next year. The coaches and manager are probably gone, too.

The Twins have treated their Korean and Japanese players poorly. Talk to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Byung-Ho Park about their experiences with the Twins, and how quick management was to move on. Kenta Maeda wasn't necessarily treated poorly, but the Twins didn't do him any favors, either.

Endorsement value with the Twins will be limited as the team doesn't have wide spread appeal. There are better endorsement deals available in other lower pressure markets with a good history of supporting Japanese players like Seattle.

Finally, the Twins didn't make the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years last year, they're cutting payroll, and other teams in the AL Central look better positioned in terms of open window to the playoffs right now.

[Linus]

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Year after year, the "Arms Race" in baseball gets more and more intense.  The contracts guys like Montas, Severino and Boyd are signing are just mind-boggling.  I can understand what a guy like Snell or certainly Corbin Burnes would get.  But you look at those middling SP's and their price tag and I gotta say, I'm hanging onto Pablo Lopez for sure!

The Red Sox just acquired Crochet and the primary piece needed to get him was TD trade favorite Kyle Teel.  I still don't really care what, if any, value we get back for Paddack or Vasquez, but I'd love to see how $17.5 million dollars could be used in filling in some big needs/question marks.

We are still looking at a probable trade of Vasquez.  The FA price of catching is showing that Vasquez is slightly overpaid at $10 million.  Even with the acquisition of Crochet, the Red Sox could still use a #5 SP until Giolito is ready.  Paddack could work for them, especially if he could be used in long relief once Giolito is back.  In trading Teel, the Red Sox could be interested in a reunion with Vasquez as a backup to Connor Wong.  

But there has to be a plan, where the groundwork is already laid to get a young catcher in a trade once Vasquez is moved.  With Teel gone, and with the extraordinary catching depth the Dodgers have with Will Smith and Austin Barnes on the roster, and Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya in the minors knocking on the door, a deal needs to made with the Dodgers for either Rushing or Cartaya to pair with Jeffers.  

If something like this can come to pass, the other big move that is no sure thing, but would be the biggest splash the Twins have made in free agency since Nelson Cruz that MUST be pursued is leveraging ALL of our $7.555 million dollars of International Signing Pool money for Japanese RHP Roki Sasaki.  His agent, Joel Wolf just commented yesterday as the Winter Meetings wrapped up, that his client might prefer a "soft landing" (meaning a small-to-mid market team where media isn't as hostile as in a big market).  The Twins have the most International Pool money along with the Reds, Tigers, Brewers, Marlins, A's, Mariners and Rays.  This is not the first time Sasaki's possible preference to playing in a small-to-mid market team has been floated.  I think there is steam there.

The team that concerns me the most in that group is the Tigers.  They are a division foe and we cannot let them be the eventual winners.  I could live with a National League team like the Reds better than a division foe, but really, the Twins have to dig in and pursue this tooth and nail.  A window of opportunity has been opened.  Can you imagine a staff of Lopez, Ryan, Sasaki, Ober and SWR/Festa??  This would allow the Twins to keep Jax in the BP and either keep Duran, or package Duran and Castro in a deal to the Dodgers for Rushing and something else.

Sasaki is a unique opportunity to get a bona fide ROY/All Star Game candidate at a ridiculously low price.  Skip a year of signing multiple players and get an impact guy without having to spend a $50 million dollar posting fee and a $300 million dollar contract.  Japan is an island nation.  Their people love to fish, and I would bet that Sasaki, coming from a small, rural town is a fisherman.  In addition to the $7.555 million in Pool money, I would include a tricked out fishing boat, and get a bevy of local, Twin Cities lake guides to guide him around the metro lakes and show him the "hot spots" for Walleye, Northern and Muskie.  THAT would be "getting creative" from an ownership and front office standpoint. 

Sasaki could find he LOVES living and playing in the Twin Cities area.  And if we only have him for a couple of years, he becomes a tremendous trade asset.  There isn't much optimism for the Twins this off season.  We just left the Winter Meetings with barely a whisper.  There is enough talent on this roster to compete for a division championship, but with a limited budget and obvious needs to fill there needs to be a "will to find a way" from our soon to be gone ownership group and very likely gone FO group if the attitude is toward "standing pat."  

Get what you can for Vasquez and Paddack.  Clear the $17.5 million.  Make a BIG trade that brings back a catcher of the future who is ready or near ready to start playing in 2025.  And shock us all by landing the biggest fish at the most affordable price in Roki Sasaki.  

I’m sure the Twins have already made the offer. A few walleyes aren’t going to do it. The Twins are not that attractive of an option right now. 

[TopGunn#22]

bean and Linus, you both make very good points.  There certainly appear to be several "better" possible destinations for Sasaki.  But I never thought Carlos Correa was coming to the Twins.  Not the first time and not the second time.

It is a major negative in terms of signing Sasaki, that the team is for sale.  That uncertainty alone makes pulling this off very difficult.  The fact that if the Twins stumble and bumble this coming season, we will see an entirely new FO and coaching staff is also a major hurdle in getting Sasaki.

But I believe there is a chance.  And I HAVE to believe that our FO and Rocco know that if they don't at least make the playoffs this year, they are all gone, and that should be motivating them to do everything they can do improve this ballclub and to me, at the top of that list is winning the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes.

Am I pinning my entire off season hopes on this?  Absolutely not.  I've seen much more bad than good from the current brain trust, even with Dave St. Peter finally out of the mix.  The point I'm making is that the Sasaki sweepstakes is one of the more unique opportunities I've ever seen in baseball where a truly impactful starting pitcher could be had at such an affordable price.

For an ownership group that values profit over on field success, even the Pohlad family should be intelligent enough and properly motivated to capitalize on this.  The Twins could have sellouts every time this kid pitches.  He's a tremendous asset at the price.  

I admit, I have little faith this current ownership group and FO can pull this off.  But they should be smart enough to see the obvious benefits getting Sasaki could bring.  

[Linus]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

bean and Linus, you both make very good points.  There certainly appear to be several "better" possible destinations for Sasaki.  But I never thought Carlos Correa was coming to the Twins.  Not the first time and not the second time.

It is a major negative in terms of signing Sasaki, that the team is for sale.  That uncertainty alone makes pulling this off very difficult.  The fact that if the Twins stumble and bumble this coming season, we will see an entirely new FO and coaching staff is also a major hurdle in getting Sasaki.

But I believe there is a chance.  And I HAVE to believe that our FO and Rocco know that if they don't at least make the playoffs this year, they are all gone, and that should be motivating them to do everything they can do improve this ballclub and to me, at the top of that list is winning the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes.

Am I pinning my entire off season hopes on this?  Absolutely not.  I've seen much more bad than good from the current brain trust, even with Dave St. Peter finally out of the mix.  The point I'm making is that the Sasaki sweepstakes is one of the more unique opportunities I've ever seen in baseball where a truly impactful starting pitcher could be had at such an affordable price.

For an ownership group that values profit over on field success, even the Pohlad family should be intelligent enough and properly motivated to capitalize on this.  The Twins could have sellouts every time this kid pitches.  He's a tremendous asset at the price.  

I admit, I have little faith this current ownership group and FO can pull this off.  But they should be smart enough to see the obvious benefits getting Sasaki could bring.  

I’m sure they do. I’m sure they will offer him the max dollars allowed. I’m sure they will make a nice presentation about how great Minnesota is. But guess what: it’s still a fourth place team that is for sale. Seattle has fishing a very strong Japanese culture is 4 hours closer to home and they can give him the same money. Go ahead and hope - I’m with you. But if he doesn’t come here it isn’t some failure on Falvey s part.