Are the Minnesota Twins Willing to Believe in DaShawn Keirsey Jr.?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

This FO doesn’t draft pitchers in high rounds. They draft pitchers low and have a defined development program that seems to be working. Not the same on the position player side. Apples and oranges…

Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Chase Petty, Matt Canterino were all top 3 round picks off the top of my head.

Can't say 1 proven drafted/developed starter in 8 years (Bailey Ober) is working by my standards.

[1985Fan]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Chase Petty, Matt Canterino were all top 3 round picks off the top of my head.

Can't say 1 proven drafted/developed starter in 8 years (Bailey Ober) is working by my standards.

Good point. I’m giving the FO the benefit of doubt that SWR (didn’t draft him, but can take credit for developing him) and Festa will continue to perform well. And there seems to be enough guys stacked up at AAA & AA that 2-3 will make the big league rotation. But you’re right same standard should apply; until they’ve proven it on the field, no credit to the FO. 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Sure, there are a ton of them who "blossom" since prime is generally ages 27-29, but rarely do you see a player debut after age 25 and ever be successful.

True it is rare, but that does not mean we should write off late bloomers.  There are a lot of rare things in Baseball which is why we love it.  Here is a look at some late bloomers and this is even better.   

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

True it is rare, but that does not mean we should write off late bloomers.  There are a lot of rare things in Baseball which is why we love it.  Here is a look at some late bloomers and this is even better.   

I can find instances where people survive falls out of airplanes with no parachute. I don't think it's reasonable to expect they might make it, though it certainly would be an amazingly happy situation if they did.

Btw, the first article is almost exclusively players who played prior to 1960. It's a great story, but it doesn't have any relevance to todays players or how they're developed.

The second article.
Jorge Posada debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26.
Edwin Encarnacion debuted age 22. First significant playing time age 22.
Jeff Kent debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 24.
Josh Donaldson debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26.
Brian Giles debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 25.

Zero of those players debuted after age 24. Zero of those players weren't playing significantly by age 26. DaShawn Keirsey didn't debut until age 27. A good year in AAA is nice. It's a great story for Keirsey, who finally got an appearance in the big show, and he certainly wouldn't have gotten a chance without that career year in AAA. Seems like a nice guy and all, but relying upon Keirsey is a totally different situation than expecting to be able to use him as short term injury replacement depth. The chances Keirsey is a good MLB caliber player is probably like 1%.

[tony&rodney]

41 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Sano’s high k rate was a permanent part of his game which limited his big league production and career. I don’t think they’re totally different players. High strike out rate isn’t going to self correct in the big leagues, in fact, it will probably get worse. IMO Erod needs more time to work on his swing and cut down on K’s before he is handed a starting position. Wallner hasn’t improved his k rate at the big league level and it took Larnach two seasons to improve his. Julien and Lewis also contribute plenty of K’s, I don’t think the roster needs more of the same.  
That has nothing to do with Keirsey having earned his shot at the 4th OF spot. I am arguing that players that have proved it deserve a shot at open roster spots. This FO apparently doesn’t believe the same. 

If you watch Rodriguez and see Sano, I guess I'm not going to have any more to say. Good luck to all.

[NYCTK]

49 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This team is not far from being a playoff team

I guess technically so. But they are a long, long ways from being an actual contender. 

[nicksaviking]

56 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Not to mention if/when the youth fails at the MLB level there is no one else to turn to. Except mid season waiver wire scrap heaps like Jordan Luplow. 

The reward for hitting on the young players is exponentially higher, while the punishment for their failure is about the same. Jordan Luplow isn't going to lose any more games than Manny Margot did. And pretending that the 2025 version of this mystery veteran will have a higher floor is just wishful thinking as there is no such thing as a floor in the MLB.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If you have Keirsey, and Buxton is healthy, when would he play? He certainly doesn't fit a platoon with either Wallner or Larnach. 

I like his skillset. It's something the team doesn't have enough of, which is speed and defense. But it's hard to fit him into what feels like a square peg in a round hole.

If they move either Larnach or Wallner, and want to start the year with a platoon in left with Keirsey and some right handed hitting corner outfielder (Mark Canha or Randall Grichuk) that would make more sense. I just have a hard time seeing his fit otherwise.

Nobody should expect a “healthy” Buxton to start more than 85 games in CF…….another 25 at DH……that’s a positive volume of action for him!

If Kiersey platoons predominantly v. RH pitching, he can pick up 65-75 starts in CF and another 15-20 between LF & RF. He hasn’t shown that he should be relied upon to start more than 90-100 games in the SHOW…..hasn’t shown he should be relied upon to start more than 15 games so far.

Kiersey - Martin - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner is the OF …….. Castro (if Julien & Lee & Keaschall can hit some in the Spring) may be available for a bunch of innings in OF if he’s not traded. I’d probably mix Castro with another piece or two in a trade.

I think Kiersey gives them a bridge to Emma &/or trade deadline acquisition.

[Doctor Gast]

"As such, around this time a year ago, we were wondering if the Twins would add Keirsey to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. They didn't, and from accounts that Aaron Gleeman has shared on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it doesn't sound like they seriously considered it. (Paraphrasing: After multiple inquiries about the team's likelihood of adding Keirsey, a Twins official replied to AG, "Boy, you really like DaShawn Keirsey, huh?")"

This kind of response & other actions, make me really doubt the Twins' player evaluations, that sometimes their decisions are more subjective than objective. My feeling in '23 with Castro was that he was ready to be sent down no matter what he did in spring training. Once down in MiLB he'd be forgotten. Fortunately for us injuries forced the Twins to take a chance on him. There were others that weren't so lucky. While they go out get losers like Gallo & Margot. In '23 Keirsey showed that he was our 2nd best CFer in the system behind Buxton, he also showed that he could hit upper minors pitchers, What more do you want from a CFer?! '24 was Keirsey's chance to show what he had before the likes of Emma & Jenkins would come on the scene. & like in '20, Keirsey was robbed of his pro development, '24 he was robbed of a valuable year of MLB development. What player evaluations revealed that Margot was close to the worth we paid for him (I wouldn't have taken him if he was given away) & deemed that Keirsey wasn't able to give us MLB CF performance or that he couldn't eventually hit MLB pitching which would be just icing on the cake. 

The acquisition of Margot was a big mistake! Margot blocked the role that Martin should have played & took the active spot from Keirsey & Martin had to try fill the CF spot that Margot was suppose to supply. The absence of Keirsey as the main CF sub & management determination of putting Julien at 2B which forced Correa & Santana to cover for him, to make him look passable. These  decisions severely affected our defensive compacity especially when Correa wasn't around.

We can't go wrong with investing in our MLB-ready in-house players especially when there is a need & a budget crunch, We lost 1 year of MLB development from Keirsey at CF, Varland in the BP,  Martin in his role, Miranda & Kiriloff at 1B. We start '25, 1 year behind where we should have been as far as development performance while we finished in 4th place ahead of CWS in '24. So what did we gain? We gained nothing, we lost, & we lost bad!  

Usually it takes them awhile before they see their mistakes. If they make the same mistake again with Keirsey. it'll be unforgiveable.

[JD-TWINS]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I can find instances where people survive falls out of airplanes with no parachute. I don't think it's reasonable to expect they might make it, though it certainly would be an amazingly happy situation if they did.

Btw, the first article is almost exclusively players who played prior to 1960. It's a great story, but it doesn't have any relevance to todays players or how they're developed.

The second article.
Jorge Posada debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26.
Edwin Encarnacion debuted age 22. First significant playing time age 22.
Jeff Kent debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 24.
Josh Donaldson debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26.
Brian Giles debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 25.

Zero of those players debuted after age 24. Zero of those players weren't playing significantly by age 26. DaShawn Keirsey didn't debut until age 27. A good year in AAA is nice. It's a great story for Keirsey, who finally got an appearance in the big show, and he certainly wouldn't have gotten a chance without that career year in AAA. Seems like a nice guy and all, but relying upon Keirsey is a totally different situation than expecting to be able to use him as short term injury replacement depth. The chances Keirsey is a good MLB caliber player is probably like 1%.

What do you think his chances are to play decent to good defense in CF and hit similarly to Martin? Seriously. To me that should be a real expectation……300 AB’s - hit .245 - .255 or better - 20 doubles - 9-10 HR - good defense - 90 OPS or better. A fast #9 hitter while Rodriguez develops OR a bridge until they make a trade at the deadline if needed.

[Trov]

When a guy like Keirsey is screaming call him up/protect him, and he is not, you need to wonder why.  Most would think putting up the numbers he did the Twins would have made the move to call him up.  They fought against until they really could not due to injuries to many in front. 

Either the FO just has something against him and want to suppress his career, or there is a lot more issues with him we lay people do not know. I mean, he passed through rule 5.  That is more common for position players, but good defending CF that shown they can hit even okay will always get a shot.  Look at Kevin Pillar a top defender but not good hitter his whole career.  I think Keirsey is more of a AAAA type guy.  He does not have much power, and is only average defender.  He showed an ability to get on base, but he is always old for his comp too. 

Do I think he should get a shot overall, sure because we got no one else in line.  If someone else comes along will I defer to the FO yes. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’ll bet a lot of money Kiersey never has even an average Kepler 2 bWAR season, let alone Kepler’s peak of 4 bWAR

He won't have either season because the FO has made it pretty clear he will never be given a chance.

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He won't have either season because the FO has made it pretty clear he will never be given a chance.

Yeah I guess? And 29 other GMs didn’t want to give him a chance either evidenced by passing on him in the rule 5 draft. Playing MLB is pretty tough. 

[Blyleven2011]

45 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I guess technically so. But they are a long, long ways from being an actual contender. 

Over the years with our front office , the pohlads have been responsible  for the twins not being contenders , they don't plan to be contenders or even playoff teams  , they are content with the FO  constructing a team that can win during the season  and be competitive enough in drawing fans to the stadium ...

There has been very few years I have said we are contenders for the playoffs coming out of spring training , yes I'll say we are a good team and have the personal to win possibly the division  but that's as far as I would go ...

Adding 1 pitcher or a hitter each year is just not enough to make you a contender , you have to fill all the holes to be a contender ...

Back at the deadline in 2022 , we were not contenders and the FO  thought enough of the team and HOPED they were , the FO made some trades that didn't push us into contenders  , we lost some talent in the trades that didn't work  , 2023 and 2024 when we were a better team the FO was gun shy and made no trades at the deadline  , what does that tell you how the pohlads and FO work on constructing a team ....

Good enough for putting fans in the stands but not constructing a team as contenders ...

My mind will never deviate from that conclusion  ....

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

"As such, around this time a year ago, we were wondering if the Twins would add Keirsey to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. They didn't, and from accounts that Aaron Gleeman has shared on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it doesn't sound like they seriously considered it. (Paraphrasing: After multiple inquiries about the team's likelihood of adding Keirsey, a Twins official replied to AG, "Boy, you really like DaShawn Keirsey, huh?")"

This kind of response & other actions, make me really doubt the Twins' player evaluations. My feeling in '23 with Castro was that he was ready to be sent down no matter what he did in spring training. Once down in MiLB he'd be forgotten. Fortunately for us injuries forced the Twins to take a chance on him. There were others that weren't so lucky. While they go out get losers like Gallo & Margot. In '23 Keirsey showed that he was our 2nd best CFer in the system behind Buxton, he also showed that he could hit upper minors pitchers, What more do you want from a CFer?! '24 was Keirsey's chance to show what he had before the likes of Emma & Jenkins would come on the scene. & like in '20, Keirsey was robbed of his pro development, '24 he was robbed of a valuable year of MLB development. What player evaluations revealed that Margot was close to the worth we paid for him (I wouldn't have taken him if he was given away) & deemed that Keirsey wasn't able to give us MLB CF performance or that he couldn't eventually hit MLB pitching which would be just icing on the cake. 

The acquisition of Margot was a big mistake! Margot blocked the role that Martin should have played & took the active spot from Keirsey & Martin had to try fill the CF spot that Margot was suppose to supply. The absence of Keirsey as the main CF sub & management determination of putting Julien at 2B which forced Correa & Santana to cover for him, to make him look passable. These  decisions severely affected our defensive compacity especially when Correa wasn't around.

We can't go wrong with investing in our MLB-ready in-house players especially when there is a need & a budget crunch, We lost 1 year of MLB development from Keirsey at CF, Varland in the BP,  Martin in his role, Miranda & Kiriloff at 1B. We start '25, 1 year behind where we should have been as far as development performance while we finished in 4th place ahead of CWS in '24. So what did we gain? We gained nothing, we lost, & we lost bad!  

Usually it takes them awhile before they see their mistakes. If they make the same mistake again with Keirsey. it'll be unforgiveable.

I'll have to go along with all said , thanks doc ...

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

I guess technically so. But they are a long, long ways from being an actual contender. 

A contender is a playoff team who has a hot streak in October.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Either the FO just has something against him and want to suppress his career, or there is a lot more issues with him we lay people do not know.

Or the Twins decision makers are just humans that are no less likely to be stupid or incompetent. No grand conspiracy necessary. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

And completely lost at the plate last season. Are you willing to bet the season that he bounces back? On the current depth chart, he's the everyday DH. Lee is looking at 450 plate appearances and as you say, we don't know anything real yet. Martin was awful last year and he's also looking at 450 plate appearances.

This team is not far from being a playoff team and every win is going to matter. They can't bet on low-upside rookies to carry them to the playoffs.

And they can bet on bad veterans they won't dfa? We're going to disagree on this, and should likely move on. Have a great day

[NYCTK]

41 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Yeah I guess? And 29 other GMs didn’t want to give him a chance either evidenced by passing on him in the rule 5 draft. Playing MLB is pretty tough. 

This isn't some big strike against Keirsey. It's not like Rule 5 picks are even common. Is the argument then that no team has ever misevaluated their own internal talent? 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Zero of those players debuted after age 24. Zero of those players weren't playing significantly by age 26. DaShawn Keirsey didn't debut until age 27. 

Even Casey Blake debuted at age 25.

Keirsey is likely going to get a shot, get the holes in his game exposed (like all rookies), go back to AAA to improve, get another shot if he does and get cut if he doesn't.

[Doctor Gast]

10 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'll have to go along with all said , thanks doc ...

Thanks Blyleven. I appreciate it. LH CFer is a premium. The more they develop Keirsey at the MLB level, the greater his value. Twins gain nothing letting him rot at AAA.

[NYCTK]

30 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Over the years with our front office , the pohlads have been responsible  for the twins not being contenders , they don't plan to be contenders or even playoff teams  , they are content with the FO  constructing a team that can win during the season  and be competitive enough in drawing fans to the stadium ...

There has been very few years I have said we are contenders for the playoffs coming out of spring training , yes I'll say we are a good team and have the personal to win possibly the division  but that's as far as I would go ...

Adding 1 pitcher or a hitter each year is just not enough to make you a contender , you have to fill all the holes to be a contender ...

Back at the deadline in 2022 , we were not contenders and the FO  thought enough of the team and HOPED they were , the FO made some trades that didn't push us into contenders  , we lost some talent in the trades that didn't work  , 2023 and 2024 when we were a better team the FO was gun shy and made no trades at the deadline  , what does that tell you how the pohlads and FO work on constructing a team ....

Good enough for putting fans in the stands but not constructing a team as contenders ...

My mind will never deviate from that conclusion  ....

Trust me, I love hating on the pohlads. Nothing I love more basically. 

The Twins are a loser organization striving to do nothing more than just be good enough. I will not spend a dime on the twins until the sale goes through. 

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And they can bet on bad veterans they won't dfa? We're going to disagree on this, and should likely move on. Have a great day

Them not doing a DFA of veterans is an entirely different issue. Their likelihood to DFA depends on how bad the veteran is and how much they paid for him (showing that they don't understand sunk costs).

I would prefer they added a GOOD outfielder to the roster. I don't want bad veterans OR bad rookies.

[NYCTK]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A contender is a playoff team who has a hot streak in October.

Yes and no. 

We all knew the twins weren't actually near the best in the league last season. There are teams that try to just squeeze into the playoffs and get lucky, and there are teams that actually try to be the best. The Twins have long been the former, never the latter. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Them not doing a DFA of veterans is an entirely different issue. Their likelihood to DFA depends on how bad the veteran is and how much they paid for him (showing that they don't understand sunk costs).

I would prefer they added a GOOD outfielder to the roster. I don't want bad veterans OR bad rookies.

Fair, I just don't see it this year, given everything we've heard. I'd rather they go get good players too, but that's not the thread we're in.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Even Casey Blake debuted at age 25.

Keirsey is likely going to get a shot, get the holes in his game exposed (like all rookies), go back to AAA to improve, get another shot if he does and get cut if he doesn't.

There's no reason to think he'll get a real chance when they gave him 14 PAs in a season Margot led the team in OF appearances. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

There's no reason to think he'll get a real chance when they gave him 14 PAs in a season Margot led the team in OF appearances. 

This seems true and frustrating. 

[umterp23]

If Kiersey's benchmark is Margot, the only thing he has to do is get a base hit pinch hitting!

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair, I just don't see it this year, given everything we've heard. I'd rather they go get good players too, but that's not the thread we're in.

I don't understand shooting for 78-82 wins. Either add good players and try to win or trade veterans and rebuild.

[Vanimal46]

17 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This isn't some big strike against Keirsey. It's not like Rule 5 picks are even common. Is the argument then that no team has ever misevaluated their own internal talent? 

What? I’m arguing Keirsey is very likely not an MLB caliber player.