Are the Minnesota Twins Willing to Believe in DaShawn Keirsey Jr.?

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't understand shooting for 78-82 wins. Either add good players and try to win or trade veterans and rebuild.

If you only care about finances, shooting for 82 wins is a less risky way to make money. 

But as the twins have learned, that upsets fans and erodes your fan base and now their finances suck anyways. Hard to feel bad for them! Hopefully the pohlads lose a good $100 million annually on the team. That'd be nice. 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

What? I’m arguing Keirsey is very likely not an MLB caliber player. 

I'm just saying that you (and maybe someone else) have brought up the fact he wasn't selected in the rule 5 draft as some sort of exoneration of the twins view of him. I'm just saying that's an extremely weak argument.

There were a grand total of two position players selected last year. 

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Them not doing a DFA of veterans is an entirely different issue. Their likelihood to DFA depends on how bad the veteran is and how much they paid for him (showing that they don't understand sunk costs).

I would prefer they added a GOOD outfielder to the roster. I don't want bad veterans OR bad rookies.

I could definitely be wrong, but I think they believe in E. Rodriquez and anticipate him being up relatively early in the season.  They might bank on that a little more than most prospects because he checks a lot of boxes in terms of team needs.  Rodriquez hits LH & RH pitching.  He is a good defender and is capable of backing up CF.   Keaschall also might end up in the OF and of course Jenkins is also on the horizon.  A difference maker probably costs one of these players and I don't see them emphasizing the short-term at the cost of one of these prospects.  Now, this scenario changes if they decided to trade Castro and/or Paddack for an OFer.

[old nurse]

There are several possible reasons why he is not given a shot.

Reason one they don’t promote him, Left hand hitting OF. He would be behind Larnach and Wallner in the pecking order. 

Reason two. There is a hole in his swing. I don’t see analysis of his swing anywhere.. A guess would be the breaking pitch. I don’t think it is unreasonable to think f a minor league pitcher can consistently throw decent breaking pitches with even an average fastball ball they are in the majors. ZMinor league pitchers probably throw a quite a few more mistake pitches.

Reason three.  Always possible that they are keeping him as a disaster plan but there is politic in the workplace. The wrong people do not like him. You hate to blame personalities but that stuff exists 

[FargoFanMan]

9 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The only teams that give a soon to be 28 year old (May 13th) a real shot are teams that aren't really trying or know they can't compete. I am fine with him as a 4th/5th outfielder and short term fill in, but in no way should he be blocking any real prospect. With that said I hope he makes the best of his opportunity and forces the Twins hand by being crazy good. (Don't think it will happen, but I hope it does)

He would be exactly that. A 4th OF option. He’s not blocking any prospect in CF as we don’t have one unless you believe Jenkins will stick in CF and even then He’s a late season call up at best. Kiersey won’t be crazy good but he can add a tremendous amount of value by just being a solid backup CF. Stellar D and competitive AB’s twice a week. That’s the premise of this article. It’s an important role though when you have Buxton and his injury history.

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I can find instances where people survive falls out of airplanes with no parachute. I don't think it's reasonable to expect they might make it, though it certainly would be an amazingly happy situation if they did.

Btw, the first article is almost exclusively players who played prior to 1960. It's a great story, but it doesn't have any relevance to todays players or how they're developed.

The second article.
Jorge Posada debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26.
Edwin Encarnacion debuted age 22. First significant playing time age 22.
Jeff Kent debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 24.
Josh Donaldson debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26.
Brian Giles debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 25.

Zero of those players debuted after age 24. Zero of those players weren't playing significantly by age 26. DaShawn Keirsey didn't debut until age 27. A good year in AAA is nice. It's a great story for Keirsey, who finally got an appearance in the big show, and he certainly wouldn't have gotten a chance without that career year in AAA. Seems like a nice guy and all, but relying upon Keirsey is a totally different situation than expecting to be able to use him as short term injury replacement depth. The chances Keirsey is a good MLB caliber player is probably like 1%.

Sorry you are so sure of his lack of talent.  I will remain optimistic.  Only time will tell.

[mikelink45]

I know I get a lot of disagreement with my belief that Keirsey is a good prospect for the Twins bench, but all I can say is that he is held back by the same evaluators who thought Margo would be good.

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Who has rated Keirsey's defense as elite? Please cite sources. The scouting reports I have seen believe his CF defense would be adequate but not close to elite. He's a downgrade on Buxton in the field and Buxton isn't a gold-glover anymore.

It’s a small sample size, but there is no indication that Keirsey’s defense is elite. More telling to me, his sprint speed is listed as 38th percentile. This is from Baseball Savant. 

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd like you to provide your analysis which the Twins could duplicate on this. It would be pretty interesting since more players accumulated 500+ PA while actively playing SS than playing any other position in baseball. CF is right in line with RF or LF as well.

In a little more depth, here’s my “analysis”: Castro was far more effective in 2023 and the first half of ‘24. I think he was overused and the reason for that was he was Option 1 as the backup for Correa and Option 1-A for Buxton. Castro played in 158 games and had 635 plate appearances. Ideally, his usage should be more in line with 2023–124 games and 409 PAs—and if he’s not at short and center field so much maybe he won’t  be worn down. No one expects Buxton to be an iron man, so having a backup who isn’t Willi Castro would benefit Castro. 

[DocBauer]

43 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

In a little more depth, here’s my “analysis”: Castro was far more effective in 2023 and the first half of ‘24. I think he was overused and the reason for that was he was Option 1 as the backup for Correa and Option 1-A for Buxton. Castro played in 158 games and had 635 plate appearances. Ideally, his usage should be more in line with 2023–124 games and 409 PAs—and if he’s not at short and center field so much maybe he won’t  be worn down. No one expects Buxton to be an iron man, so having a backup who isn’t Willi Castro would benefit Castro. 

I can't disagree with you that "forcing" Castro to being an IRON MAN might have an affect on him.

But right about the time of the All Star break, he developed a back issue. I'm still not sure exactly what the issue was...not sure it's ever been detailed...but his production plunged at that point. (Same with Miranda). 

I know we're off topic here, but I think Castro is a major component for the Twins in 2025. And not just because he can help cover CF at times and produce a .730-.750 OPS and can play almost anywhere decently. It's BECAUSE he can produce like that AND play solidly almost anywhere that makes him so important. 

I'm NOT attempting to derail the OP, but if the FO didn't keep Castro for 2025 they short change the entire roster, IMO. Look, I hope for the best for the entire lineup, but what IF Lee or Lewis have setbacks? No problem as Castro slides in to one of those spots for a fix. We talk about adding speed and athleticism to the lineup. Castro offers that. I don't like him as the PRIMARY option behind Buxton in CF, but I like him him there as an occasional fill in.

It's also why I'm of the idea to let Keirsey get a legitimate shot as a 4th/5th OF option. Let's say he only hits .235 with an OB of .310 with some doubles, a couple HR, and has an OPS of .680. (He MIGHT be better than that). If he plays good defense and steals some bases and is a good PR, i can accept that as the 13th man on the roster until someone better pushes him put of the way. Rodriguez perhaps? Honestly, how low would Keirsey have to go to be worse than Margot in overall value to the team?

But Castro being removed from the 2025 team would have to be part of a major addition to offset what he provides offensively...with his back OK again...and his depth presence.

Personally, I'd love to sign Castro to a 3yr $19-20M deal to be part of this team for the next few years. But it's also possible that he and Keirsey are temporary fits of quality and hopefull quality until Rodriguez and Keaschall are ready.

But I'd rather stick with Castro for 2025, even on an expiring deal, and give Keirsey first shot as the primary CF backup, rather than another Margot error for a team STUCK with a budget, and have Helman and MAYBE an improved Martin as additional backup options until Rodriguez is ready to go. 

It wouldn't stink if February 1st saw a RH OF with good career numbers against RHP was available on the cheap to be added to the roster, but that doesn't change the CF and Castro situation and potential value of Keirsey as a temporary option in CF.

[Fezig]

21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

There are a lot of good MLB players over the years who did not blossom until they were 26 - 30.  But he cannot show his ability until given a chance. 

I'm pretty sure it was Tom Kelly that said it took centerfielders, more specifically the faster players, a longer time to develop. 

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, Trov said:

When a guy like Keirsey is screaming call him up/protect him, and he is not, you need to wonder why.  Most would think putting up the numbers he did the Twins would have made the move to call him up. 

 

What was Keirsey really doing that was screaming call him up? He was a 26 year old in AA doing things a 26 year old has to do just to stay in baseball, but if you go back and compare him to other center fielders that year in AA he was a barely a top 5 offensive guy and was the oldest one. Some many years younger. Then in AAA last year his numbers compared to Stevenson's the year before are nothing crazy, and again when you are 27 that is the kind of numbers required just to stay in baseball, otherwise some younger shiny object will pass you by, is that fair? probably not

I believe he good enough to stick in the majors for a few years, but unless he gets traded to a last place team not trying he will never be given the chance to prove himself. In MN he does have a better chance of Buxton getting hurt and playing so well in CF that the Twins are forced to play him.

Unfortunately for Prato, Holland, Williams, Helman and McCusker are probably in the same situation.

[NYCTK]

20 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What was Keirsey really doing that was screaming call him up? He was a 26 year old in AA doing things a 26 year old has to do just to stay in baseball, but if you go back and compare him to other center fielders that year in AA he was a barely a top 5 offensive guy and was the oldest one. Some many years younger. Then in AAA last year his numbers compared to Stevenson's the year before are nothing crazy, and again when you are 27 that is the kind of numbers required just to stay in baseball, otherwise some younger shiny object will pass you by, is that fair? probably not

I believe he good enough to stick in the majors for a few years, but unless he gets traded to a last place team not trying he will never be given the chance to prove himself. In MN he does have a better chance of Buxton getting hurt and playing so well in CF that the Twins are forced to play him.

Unfortunately for Prato, Holland, Williams, Helman and McCusker are probably in the same situation.

I mostly agree with this. He was deserving of a chance not because he was exceptional down in the minors, but because the Twins other options were clearly bad and IMO obviously worse. 

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I mostly agree with this. He was deserving of a chance not because he was exceptional down in the minors, but because the Twins other options were clearly bad and IMO obviously worse. 

IMO, the Twins have been a year late calling up just about everybody (maybe not Lee) but Wallner, Julien, Miranda and probably Martin (Severino?) they hold them down a year and then don't really know what they have and the player is always getting older. Regardless of what people think on this board, most of the starting type players in this league take a bit to succeed but that usually is in the lower 20's (22,23) and by age 25 they have figured it out or not, The Twins players are not in the majors until that age and are still trying to figure it out or not in their prime years say 26-28. Now that is a great way to never have to pay your own prospects real money, but....

EDIT - I was one of the people saying Keirsey should have been called up in straight from AA in 23.

[Riverbrian]

Keirsay on the roster will force Wallner or Larnach to hit against left handers. We will be over our allotment of left handed bats. I'm Ok with this... Are the Twins? I don't believe they are.  

Keirsay on the roster will also take a spot that is needed for a right handed bat that has to play against left handers so Wallner or Larnach can sit. 

If the Twins don't change their extreme left/right policy that limits their roster construction decisions. Keirsay will need to wait for an injury to Wallner or Larnach.

A Buxton injury has nothing to do with it. Castro and Martin will continue to be the Buxton insurance policies.   

[jorgenswest]

Martin and Keirsey both played in AA in 2022 and AAA in 2023-2024. In each of those three season Martin had the better wRC+ at their common level though they were both awful in 2022. Martin is 2 years younger. I would not describe Keirsey’s wRC+ of 119 last year as fantastic. It is good. Probably in the second quartile of minor league centerfielders. The top was Cal Stevenson unless you go down to 250 PAs and find Ji Hwan Bae of the Pirates.

Stevenson and Keirsey have a lot in common. They both were drafted  in 2018 out of the PAC12 and have similar skill sets. Cal has hit much better than DeShawn in the minors but hasn’t hit in the majors yet. Cal has been available on waivers multiple times. The Twins are willing to believe in Keirsey enough to give him a valued 40 man roster spot. I don’t think he has done anything in the minors to merit more belief. There are peers that have performed much better in the minors and yet to be successful in the majors.

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

A Buxton injury has nothing to do with it. Castro and Martin will continue to be the Buxton insurance policies.   

Possibly, but that's dumb. The best way to maximize Keirsey's value to the team is to use him in CF when Buxton is injured. There's little reason to call him up to play LF/RF when you could use a better bat instead.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Possibly, but that's dumb. The best way to maximize Keirsey's value to the team is to use him in CF when Buxton is injured. There's little reason to call him up to play LF/RF when you could use a better bat instead.

I don't like it one single bit and I want to be clear that it's not my idea but I have no reason to expect different simply based on consistent utilization of the 26 man roster for the past two seasons. 

If Keirsay makes the club out of spring training. Assuming Wallner and Larnach also make the club out of spring training. That is three left handed OF's on the roster. Wallner, Larnach already require a right handed handcuff... Keirsay will require the same I assume. 

We can't put 6 Outfielders on the 26 man roster... three lefthanders and three right handers on the roster so Wallner, Larnach and Keirsay all avoid left handed hitters. So... it stands to reason that Keirsay will be taking the roster spot that is needed for Canha or whoever the Margot replacement is going to be and Canha is needed because we have been starving Wallner and Larnach all of this time. 

This forces Keirsay to wait for a Larnach or Wallner injury opportunity to get the call. He may play CF when he comes up while someone else plays in the corner but Keirsay will have to wait for Larnach or Wallner to go down because not waiting will force Wallner or Larnach into the lineup against left handers because we will have too many of them.  

Also if Keirsay has to wait for Wallner or Larnach and he would have to wait based on 2024 utilization. The lefty swinging Erod will probably be the first choice... so in reality... Keirsay will have to wait for two of Wallner, Larnach and Erod to be unavailable to get a chance.   

All of this doesn't even factor Julien on the roster because Julien's presence on the roster is going to require a Farmer replacement or pull Miranda into a short side hell on the 26 man roster.  

Bottom Line: If the Twins continue with this overweighting of the Right/Left Platoon split. You might as well release Keirsay right now. 

 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

In each of those three season Martin had the better wRC+ at their common level though they were both awful in 2022.

Sure. But you're forgetting half the equation. Even though I think people are dramatically overstating Keirseys defense, we know for a fact that Austin is very bad in the OF. Not to mention his baseball IQ seemed to be single digits. 

[Fred]

On 12/4/2024 at 9:27 AM, stringer bell said:

So maybe Keirsey is ideal as Buxton's backup. We do know that Buxton won't play every day, even if healthy. Having a guy (Keirsey) who you don't worry about rusting on the bench to fill in for the 20% of games when Buck is rested is good. Plus Keirsey can pinch run and be used as a defensive replacement for one of the many slow guys who will be starting for the Twins.

Nailed it!

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't like it one single bit and I want to be clear that it's not my idea but I have no reason to expect different simply based on consistent utilization of the 26 man roster for the past two seasons. 

If Keirsay makes the club out of spring training. Assuming Wallner and Larnach also make the club out of spring training. That is three left handed OF's on the roster. Wallner, Larnach already require a right handed handcuff... Keirsay will require the same I assume. 

We can't put 6 Outfielders on the 26 man roster... three lefthanders and three right handers on the roster so Wallner, Larnach and Keirsay all avoid left handed hitters. So... it stands to reason that Keirsay will be taking the roster spot that is needed for Canha or whoever the Margot replacement is going to be and Canha is needed because we have been starving Wallner and Larnach all of this time. 

This forces Keirsay to wait for a Larnach or Wallner injury opportunity to get the call. He may play CF when he comes up while someone else plays in the corner but Keirsay will have to wait for Larnach or Wallner to go down because not waiting will force Wallner or Larnach into the lineup against left handers because we will have too many of them.  

Also if Keirsay has to wait for Wallner or Larnach and he would have to wait based on 2024 utilization. The lefty swinging Erod will probably be the first choice... so in reality... Keirsay will have to wait for two of Wallner, Larnach and Erod to be unavailable to get a chance.   

All of this doesn't even factor Julien on the roster because Julien's presence on the roster is going to require a Farmer replacement or pull Miranda into a short side hell on the 26 man roster.  

Bottom Line: If the Twins continue with this overweighting of the Right/Left Platoon split. You might as well release Keirsay right now. 

 

Yep. This organization has been bad at both roster construction and utilization. 

Other than that, the decision makers are doing fantastic...

[Fred]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Sure. But you're forgetting half the equation. Even though I think people are dramatically overstating Keirseys defense, we know for a fact that Austin is very bad in the OF. Not to mention his baseball IQ seemed to be single digits. 

I was excited to see Martin get his chance. Consistently high OBP throughout his Milb career. I thought he would make a great table setter. While he may still come around, I have already given up on him. And I want to see Keirsey giving Buxton a break every 4th or 5th day, in an attempt to keep Buxton healthy

[Fred]

On 12/4/2024 at 11:23 AM, GNXman said:

He certainly should be better than Kepler...

Kepler has always been a guy I thought the Twins could do better than, especially for the money. He's one of those rare guys who does better against same side pitching. And, since he's a left handed bat, that means he has a tough time against RHP. (career 672 OPS). I think, about halfway through the season, there will be a majority of fans that will realize they don't miss him. I know that won't be a popular opinion (he's a Twins darling and all) but give it halfway through the season before you start calling me "9 kinds of stupid".

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fred said:

Kepler has always been a guy I thought the Twins could do better than, especially for the money. He's one of those rare guys who does better against same side pitching. And, since he's a left handed bat, that means he has a tough time against RHP. (career 672 OPS).

That number looks like just 2024.  b-r.com has his L/R career splits:

  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=keplema01&year=Career&t=b#all_plato

His overall lifetime OPS of .747 is divided up as .655 against lefties and .778 versus righthanders. 

Yearly splits can fluctuate wildly, but overall he can not be expected to hit better against same-side pitching.

 

[NYCTK]

40 minutes ago, Fred said:

I was excited to see Martin get his chance. Consistently high OBP throughout his Milb career. I thought he would make a great table setter. While he may still come around, I have already given up on him. And I want to see Keirsey giving Buxton a break every 4th or 5th day, in an attempt to keep Buxton healthy

It's not already. He's 26 in '25. He is who we think he is. Bad to mediocre defense, albeit at many positions. No power. On base skills that do not translate to major league pitching. 

The only thing I can imagine is him getting a bit more comfortable and the BB rate increasing slightly. But that just bumps him up from unplayable to replacement level. Zero upside with him and happy to just see him bounce up and down until they are able to replace him with anyone that possesses a decent glove. 

[Fred]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

That number looks like just 2024.  b-r.com has his L/R career splits:

  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=keplema01&year=Career&t=b#all_plato

His overall lifetime OPS of .747 is divided up as .655 against lefties and .778 versus righthanders. 

Yearly splits can fluctuate wildly, but overall he can not be expected to hit better against same-side pitching.

 

Oops! My bad, I was reading last years splits on ESPN