Are the Minnesota Twins Willing to Believe in DaShawn Keirsey Jr.?

[GNXman]

He certainly should be better than Kepler...

[1985Fan]

Twins FO definitely values draft position and prospect hype over actual performance. Thats why Keirsey won’t get a chance. All the ratings from prospect “experts” seems to influence this FO heavily. ERod has 23 unproductive AAA AB’s and he’s already hyped to be a MLB star. I’d rather see the FO reward performance over hype. Make prospects prove it on the field against real competition. Keirsey has done that at the highest MiLB level for two seasons. Give him a chance! 
 

[tony&rodney]

So if DaShawn was a mediocre right-handed bat with less speed who only played average or so defense .... he has an MLB roster spot? Does his minimum salary intimidate? Would he have a better chance if F & S had traded for him? 

Keirsey Jr. is not a savior but if someone can figure out why he has been shunned, that would be cool. His original sin may be the violation of the i before e except after c rule.

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

 

I'm not a drum beater for Keirsey and Helman and have some sort of belief that both are going to be major assets for the Twins. I'd love a $150-160M budget...where we should be...and make some moves that help and deepen the club. But we're looking at $130-135M this year and we're basically there already. And the last thing the Twins should do is move someone just to be able to add fringe type FA. Especially when they might have a league minimum player(s) on hand who might fit those roles. 

Sorry if I'm repeating myself from a previous post, but BOTH Keirsey and Helman were drafted and developed by the current FO, 4th and 11th rounds respectively. Both had a good short season debut, a bad year, a lost year, and then started to figure it out. They've both had a 3 year .800+ OPS coming in to 2025. No, they aren't proven by any means, but they haven't been given a shot yet. Why on earth would we want or need to spend $ on another Garlick or Margot who can't play defense, can't run, and can't do anything other than hit LH pitching a little bit. 

Keirsey is LH and that's an issue? Why? 75% of pitching is RH. Buxton, with hopes, will play 110-120 games, most of them in CF, but probably less. He can also be a PR, providing speed off the bench the Twins currently lack. He can also provide late game defense in the corners if wanted/needed.

Depth if he doesn't do well? Helman, who fits just about everything I've said previously, but as a RH hitter, who can also play across the INF. Plus, there's some hope Martin's bat and glove will improve some and there's additional depth. And how about Emmanuel Rodriguez being ready at some point?

I just don't understand trying to shuffle the roster to free up an additional couple bucks to add a poor hitting "veteran" OF for a cash strapped team when you might have a bench option on hand, and one of your top prospects almost ready who plays the same spot. 

NOW, if the Twins can indeed come up with some extra $ through a move or two, and you can find a good value RH CORNER OF who can also hit RH arms decently...discussed recently in another OP...and work with Wallner and Larnach and DH some, that's  a different argument. 

But with Keirsey on hand, Rodriguez on rapid rise, and Helman and Martin and Castro all as at least fill in options, I think sticking with what's on hand is the smart move. 

What I don't understand is not letting Keirsey and Helman get an opportunity in 2024 when injuries hit, and Martin and Margot performed so poorly.

 

well, that's the rub, right? Are we making some moves to free up cash to sign a real OF or 1B option or not? Until we know what's going on there, Keirsey will have to sit in limbo.

I think there's a fair amount of agreement around here that the desire for minor league depth isn't worth giving a roster spot to a reclamation project veteran and that's really what's a stake here: the roster spot. because there are only going to be 13 position players on the MLB roster and right now 10 are for sure spoken for, and maybe 11 (depends on what people think of Julien & Lee and whether either starts the season in AAA; I think there's pretty good odds of both being on the opening day roster, which leaves only 2 spots open. But there's a fair case that one might get pushed back down; I think there's zero chance that both do). Considering our Pohlad imposed payroll limitations, there's very little room to add veterans anyways; 1 seems likely, 2 seems to require a fairly significant trade, and 3 means something pretty substantial, IMHO.

Of course the other issue Keirsey has to face is whether the Twins might prefer to go with Helman in this kind of slot and look at him as a RH utility guy with maybe less OF defense but more positional flexibility. Because it seems unlikely that they go with two unproven guys to fill bench roles. Regardless, I'd prefer to roll with Helman or Keirsey as the 13th man than throw extra cash at veteran reclamation project with a fairly high chance to flaming out and being a sunk cost that sits on the roster for months while they try to get their money back on him.

There's enough depth at AAA (and with rising guys from AA) that we're unlikely to run out of OF this season. I'd rather assume risk on young players in the system than bringing in injured/marginal vets, because without more payroll space we're taking on risk somewhere. Give Keirsey or Helman a real shot.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Twins FO definitely values draft position and prospect hype over actual performance. Thats why Keirsey won’t get a chance. All the ratings from prospect “experts” seems to influence this FO heavily. ERod has 23 unproductive AAA AB’s and he’s already hyped to be a MLB star. I’d rather see the FO reward performance over hype. Make prospects prove it on the field against real competition. Keirsey has done that at the highest MiLB level for two seasons. Give him a chance! 
 

While I agree that Keirsey Jr. deserves an opportunity to play, using Emmanuel Rodriguez as a guy who needs to prove himself is way wrong. EmRod has terrorized every pitcher he faces. His performances thus far are small sample and injury laced, but the bat, glove, and speed are real. Rodriguez will strike out a ton but his penchant for extra base hits, stealing a base when it is needed, and defensive skill are a big plus for any team. The super small sample at St. Paul coming off of several months down due to injury did include an inside the park grand slam. Don't get down on the future just because DaShawn has been treated in a poor fashion.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

...If the Twins analyze last year, a key player (Willi Castro) wore down in large part because he spent too much time in the highest spectrum defensive positions (center field and shortstop)...

I'd like you to provide your analysis which the Twins could duplicate on this. It would be pretty interesting since more players accumulated 500+ PA while actively playing SS than playing any other position in baseball. CF is right in line with RF or LF as well.

[Vanimal46]

42 minutes ago, GNXman said:

He certainly should be better than Kepler...

I’ll bet a lot of money Kiersey never has even an average Kepler 2 bWAR season, let alone Kepler’s peak of 4 bWAR

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

There are a lot of good MLB players over the years who did not blossom until they were 26 - 30.  But he cannot show his ability until given a chance. 

Sure, there are a ton of them who "blossom" since prime is generally ages 27-29, but rarely do you see a player debut after age 25 and ever be successful.

[1985Fan]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While I agree that Keirsey Jr. deserves an opportunity to play, using Emmanuel Rodriguez as a guy who needs to prove himself is way wrong. EmRod has terrorized every pitcher he faces. His performances thus far are small sample and injury laced, but the bat, glove, and speed are real. Rodriguez will strike out a ton but his penchant for extra base hits, stealing a base when it is needed, and defensive skill are a big plus for any team. The super small sample at St. Paul coming off of several months down due to injury did include an inside the park grand slam. Don't get down on the future just because DaShawn has been treated in a poor fashion.

I’ve heard this before. Remember how great Sano was? Until ERod proves it consistently on the field, at AAA and MLB levels, I’m not convinced. There’s a lot of swing and miss in his game already. That doesn’t translate well to the big leagues. I know he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I hope the FO does not promote him prematurely. EVERY player should earn their spot on the roster. Thats best for the players and the organization. 

[bean5302]

DaShawn Keirsey had a really nice year last year in AAA apart from one bad month as I recall. The Twins do not seem to trust him, and they probably shouldn't trust him. They might play him if they have a roster crunch, but Keirsey hasn't shown a track record suggesting he's anything to rely upon. 

I expect he's 2024's Anthony Prato, and Keirsey will turn back into a pumpkin next year.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Twins FO definitely values draft position and prospect hype over actual performance. Thats why Keirsey won’t get a chance. All the ratings from prospect “experts” seems to influence this FO heavily. ERod has 23 unproductive AAA AB’s and he’s already hyped to be a MLB star. I’d rather see the FO reward performance over hype. Make prospects prove it on the field against real competition. Keirsey has done that at the highest MiLB level for two seasons. Give him a chance! 
 

I mean, the starting pitching staff shows how false this is. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

I feel really bad for Keirsey. Last year was his chance and for some reason his bosses gave the opportunities to terrible baseball players Margot and Martin instead.

Seriously, those two pure junk players got 600 Plate Appearances while Keirsey got 14? No wonder the team stunk to high heavens. 

He could get more chances but last season and his age suggests he won't. 

Martin had a .469 OBP in St. Paul. Keirsey had a .368 OBP at the same level. If he wants more opportunities than Martin, he needs to hit better than Martin. This team doesn't pick players based on their glove.

[1985Fan]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, the starting pitching staff shows how false this is. 

This FO doesn’t draft pitchers in high rounds. They draft pitchers low and have a defined development program that seems to be working. Not the same on the position player side. Apples and oranges…

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Who is the next man up? McCusker? I like Keirsey as AAA depth but putting him on the 26-man roster with little behind him in the minors could kill their season. They played 10 different people in the outfield last season. Buxton will miss 60-80 games. Kepler, Kirilloff and Margot are gone and they played 291 games between them. Castro is needed more in the infield with Farmer gone. There are 350-400 games at OF/DH left to cover between Rodriguez, Martin, Keirsey Jr and Helman. It would be great to find someone better than Martin to give 120 of those games.

 

Who cares which internal guy gets those PAs if the external option is some low rent veteran you have to roster all year because ownership can't get away from sunk costs. Just keep cycling through the guys you have, optioning and DFA'ing as needed, until someone sticks.

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

I’ve heard this before. Remember how great Sano was? Until ERod proves it consistently on the field, at AAA and MLB levels, I’m not convinced. There’s a lot of swing and miss in his game already. That doesn’t translate well to the big leagues. I know he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I hope the FO does not promote him prematurely. EVERY player should earn their spot on the roster. Thats best for the players and the organization. 

Sano? The only things Miguel and Emmanuel have in common are birth country and k's; totally different players. EmRod has proved himself at every level. In fact his highest OPS for a season was his recent play for Wichita. Rodriguez can't prove it until he is in the lineup every day and he will struggle as many young players do, but the talent will play. He is full grown and ready for an opportunity. Plenty of players skip AAA. He does need to show he is worthy to play MLB in Spring Training. If ER is to be what we hope he doesn't need to have plate appearances for the Saints. EmRod is not a 4th or 5th outfielder.

The post was whether Keirsey Jr. deserves a shot as a 4th or 5th outfielder and I agree with those who want to see him get an opportunity. For Keirsey Jr. the question will be whether management gives him a shot or not.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

This FO doesn’t draft pitchers in high rounds. They draft pitchers low and have a defined development program that seems to be working. Not the same on the position player side. Apples and oranges…

so, by default, the hitters are high picks.....so, it makes sense the hitters they value are high picks......I'm not sure you are arguing what you think you are.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This team doesn't pick players based on their glove.

I agree.

However, doesn't it seem important to turn outs into outs? I'm not sure why a couple of missed ground balls and a couple of missed fly balls every game are completely normal. Perhaps that is where the 13th player, Keirsey Jr. or someone else, might make a difference hauling in that ball in the corner or gap for the third out instead instead of a bases clearing "base hit".

[Otaknam]

His speed and elite defense should open some doors. However, batting left handed on a roster with lots of lefties isn’t ideal. But Kiersey has done enough to be given a chance. 

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

that's really what's a stake here: the roster spot. because there are only going to be 13 position players on the MLB roster and right now 10 are for sure spoken for, and maybe 11 (depends on what people think of Julien & Lee and whether either starts the season in AAA; I think there's pretty good odds of both being on the opening day roster, which leaves only 2 spots open. But there's a fair case that one might get pushed back down; I think there's zero chance that both do).

But there are only 16 position players on the 40 man roster and one is a catcher. There is no way in hell they get through the season with just 16 position players. Buxton is going to get hurt. They're one additional injury away from calling up Anthony Prato or Carson McCusker. A retread MLB vet is probably going to be better than Prato or McCusker.

[DJL44]

46 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

EVERY player should earn their spot on the roster

Great. No scholarships for Martin, Helman, Lee, Julien and Keirsey.

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Who cares which internal guy gets those PAs if the external option is some low rent veteran you have to roster all year because ownership can't get away from sunk costs. Just keep cycling through the guys you have, optioning and DFA'ing as needed, until someone sticks.

That sounds like a great strategy for a rebuilding team and a great way for this team to miss the playoffs.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, DJL44 said:

That sounds like a great strategy for a rebuilding team and a great way for this team to miss the playoffs.

How is it a different boat than some sub par vet like Manny Margot? 

If this hypothetical player is the excuse for missing the playoffs, they aren't making the playoffs anyway.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

His speed and elite defense should open some doors.

Who has rated Keirsey's defense as elite? Please cite sources. The scouting reports I have seen believe his CF defense would be adequate but not close to elite. He's a downgrade on Buxton in the field and Buxton isn't a gold-glover anymore.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

How is it a different boat than some sub par vet like Manny Margot? 

If this hypothetical player is the excuse for missing the playoffs, they aren't making the playoffs anyway.

I also don't want a sub-par veteran (though Margot is probably still a better bet than McCusker). I want a decent veteran baseball player. Give me Donovan Solano, but an outfielder. The Twins have a boatload of playing time to offer a free agent acquisition and if not, they have potential trade chits.

There is no reason to throw away 2025 and start rebuilding. If they add a couple veterans to the roster there will still be PLENTY of playing time available for whoever earns it in AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I also don't want a sub-par veteran (though Margot is probably still a better bet than McCusker). I want a decent veteran baseball player. Give me Donovan Solano, but an outfielder. The Twins have a boatload of playing time to offer a free agent acquisition and if not, they have potential trade chits.

There is no reason to throw away 2025 and start rebuilding. If they add a couple veterans to the roster there will still be PLENTY of playing time available for whoever earns it in AAA.

throw away? Playing the youth is just giving up? Nope. 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

throw away? Playing the youth is just giving up? Nope. 

Playing Julien, Lee, Helman, Keirsey, Prato, Martin, McCusker is just giving up. That's a AAA team.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Playing Julien, Lee, Helman, Keirsey, Prato, Martin, McCusker is just giving up. That's a AAA team.

Julien is one year removed from outhitting most 2B......Lee? We don't know anything real yet. 

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Playing Julien, Lee, Helman, Keirsey, Prato, Martin, McCusker is just giving up. That's a AAA team.

Not to mention if/when the youth fails at the MLB level there is no one else to turn to. Except mid season waiver wire scrap heaps like Jordan Luplow. 

[DJL44]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Julien is one year removed from outhitting most 2B.

And completely lost at the plate last season. Are you willing to bet the season that he bounces back? On the current depth chart, he's the everyday DH. Lee is looking at 450 plate appearances and as you say, we don't know anything real yet. Martin was awful last year and he's also looking at 450 plate appearances.

This team is not far from being a playoff team and every win is going to matter. They can't bet on low-upside rookies to carry them to the playoffs.

[1985Fan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Sano? The only things Miguel and Emmanuel have in common are birth country and k's; totally different players. 

Sano’s high k rate was a permanent part of his game which limited his big league production and career. I don’t think they’re totally different players. High strike out rate isn’t going to self correct in the big leagues, in fact, it will probably get worse. IMO Erod needs more time to work on his swing and cut down on K’s before he is handed a starting position. Wallner hasn’t improved his k rate at the big league level and it took Larnach two seasons to improve his. Julien and Lewis also contribute plenty of K’s, I don’t think the roster needs more of the same.  
That has nothing to do with Keirsey having earned his shot at the 4th OF spot. I am arguing that players that have proved it deserve a shot at open roster spots. This FO apparently doesn’t believe the same.