Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: Ryan Jeffers

[Matthew Lenz]

For the first two months in 2024, Ryan Jeffers looked like the best offensive catcher in baseball which was something the Minnesota Twins were betting on when they traded away Mitch Garver in March of 2022. Unfortunately, the rest of the season was a roller coaster and now we have to wonder if he’ll be tendered a contract as an arbitration eligible player.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

A second round pick in 2018, Jeffers was quietly one the highest regarded catchers in all of Major League Baseball ahead of his debut in 2020. Since then he is one of 20 catchers to surpass 1300 plate appearances and of that group he is 10th in wRC+ and fWAR.  MLBTR has projected that Ryan Jeffers will earn $4.7 million via arbitration in 2024, which is roughly a quarter of what FanGraphs value metrics say he was worth in 2024. With that laid out, should the Twins tender or move on from Jeffers? Let's look into both sides of the argument.

Why He Should Be Tendered
I’ve already started to lay out this argument above. Even despite the roller coaster season, Jeffers finished with a 107 wRC+ meaning that he produced 7% better than the average Major League hitter in a position where offense is often considered an added bonus. Additionally, adjustments at the plate led to a career low 20.2% strikeout rate and a career high 78.2% contact rate. He set career highs in nearly every counting stat in part due to playing in 26 more games and earning 130 more plate appearances in 2024 than he previously had in any one season. What’s more is that ZiPS thinks the approach is sustainable and views him as a plus hitter for at least the next two seasons.

Defensively, a career low pop time of 1.93 seconds resulted in an estimated two additional baserunners being gunned down on the base path, per Baseball Savant’s “Catcher’s CS Above Average” metric.

From a roster construction perspective, the Twins like having two starting-caliber catchers on the roster. Heck, at times they were carrying three catchers this season due to Jeffers’ ability to contribute as a designated hitter when he wasn’t behind the plate. From a purely offensive standpoint, $4.7 million is a really good price for a hitter of Jeffers’ caliber, and even more so when he’s doing it as a catcher. While the Twins have other options at catcher, they don’t have anyone else to replace his bat.

Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered
Almost every positive mentioned above can be tied to something that would give you pause. While Jeffers was setting a career-low strikeout rate, he was also setting a career-low walk rate. While it’s great that he’s making better contact with the ball, he’s doing so by sacrificing power as he saw a dip in his hard-hit metrics nearly across the board. We’d hope that he’d set career highs in home runs, runs, runs batted in, etc. when he had a 39% increase in plate appearances, but unfortunately those counting stats didn’t increase proportionally (not that we’d totally expect them to). When we break down his production by pitch type, it’s clear that he struggles with horizontal movement which isn’t good in a league where the sweeper is king.

Defensively, he’s easily one of the worst catchers in baseball despite the Twins bringing in Christian Vázquez to help mentor him into a better catcher. In fact, we’ve generally seen no improvement in his blocking and framing metrics over the past two seasons, according to Baseball Savant.

From a roster construction standpoint, $4.7 million is a lot of money to dole out to a guy with this many red flags on both sides of the ball, and the Twins are locked into Vázquez for $10 million as it sits right now. While they value having two catchers that can split time 50-50, you have to wonder if spending more than 10% of your salary “cap” on backstops is the most valuable way to spend that money. 

What I Would Do
I’ve gone back and forth on this one quite a bit. If it weren’t for the salary constraints, this is a no-brainer move for the Twins. At only 27 years old and with one more year of team control after 2025, there is still time for Jeffers to continue developing as a hitter and a catcher. While I don’t anticipate significant improvement at the plate, I think a middle ground could be found between the hard hitter he was in 2023 versus the contact hitter he was in 2024. And let’s not forget, that “contact” hitter approach still led to 21 home runs and the eighth-best slugging percentage of catchers who had 400 or more plate appearances, so I feel like I’m selling him short a bit there. Given that we’re two years into the Vázquez mentorship, I tend to think his defense is what it is at this point.

I don’t see value in spending nearly $15 million on backstops in 2025, but the decision here really isn’t whether they should or should not tender Jeffers. The decision here is to figure out how much salary they need to cover and or what level of prospect they need to include to ship Vázquez elsewhere. With Jeffers showing to be a 1.7 fWAR player over 122 games, I think it’s realistic to go into 2025 with Jair Camargo as the team's backup and utilizing a ⅔ / ⅓ split between the vet and prospect.

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What do you think? How should the Twins handle the catching position in the 2025 season? 

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[Seth Stohs]

Zero percent chance he gets non-tendered... I think. 

[tony&rodney]

Enjoy this series looking at players up for arbitration, but instead of discussing whether some should be tendered or not perhaps it would be more useful to speculate as to a player's value in a trade.

There is no chance that the Twins let go of guys like Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Alcala, Jeffers, Lewis, or Larnach. Zero. It would be very surprising and frankly poor management to non-tender Willi Castro, especially after keeping Farmer and trading for Margot last offseason. Tonkin is likely let go and Topa and Stewart likely return, but no shock if these guys are let go.

Jeffers has value to other teams. Which teams is the trick to identify. Perhaps the Twins can send Jeffers and Lee to Milwaukee for Williams and Quero. Add Varland if he is needed to close the deal.

Or as so many others have already suggested, just keep everyone (not my plan). Either way, Jeffers is a decent MLB player.

[DJL44]

Article after article of "Should the Twins pay this guy 1/4 of what they're worth?"

[Doctor Gast]

Like most of these dilemmas you posted, they aren't dilemmas. It's a no-brainer, you tender him. But the question is, is he the Twins' primary catcher of the future? The answer to that question is no. Jeffers is an above-average hitter, especially for a catcher. He adapts to the pitchers that he hits against pretty well when they adapted to the Twins' style of hitting HR. but the adjustment has taken away that HR edge. He works hard at his defense to the point where he's average-ish. He has a below-average arm that very little he can do about that. 

The reason for his roller-coaster results is directly linked to his workload & being depended upon to be the primary catcher. He does well when he has backup catcher duties that show up in the stats. But when given more than that of backup duties, his production wanes, primarily in his defense. You need a lot of stamina to be a primary catcher & Jeffers doesn't have it, along with a below average arm. This season the catching was very close to half & half but the extra DH duties might have been too much for him.

I have advocated for years to pick up a better prospect catcher to be our future Twins primary catcher. Jeffers has 2 more year left, Twins appear to be stuck on him that means with Boras as his agent, he going demand a ridiculous amount of money to extend him as a backup catcher. Quit wasting our time with Jeffers. He had great trade value last year & has dropped significantly but I still believe we need to trade Jeffers because we can't afford him as a backup catcher. Late is better than never to obtain a MLB-ready prospect to get ready to be the primary catcher for next year after Vazquez leaves. This year we can take $4.7 M off the books next year $10 M.

[Parfigliano]

I'll go out on a limb and say he's in the starting line-up opening day '25.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I'll go out on a limb and say he's in the starting line-up opening day '25.

Well, that isn't much of a limb for a couple of reasons. 1. Most fans seem to be calling for another run with the same players and 2. Falvey doesn't have much of a history of trading, especially as compared to the guys who work for the Mariners and Padres. FWIW, I'm all for trading Jeffers (one idea = Jeffers, Lee, and Varland for Quero and Williams) but I wouldn't bet a dime against Jeffers being moved because I think Falvey has him penciled into the starting lineup on Opening Day of 2025.

[Reptevia]

Well, they can’t trade Vasquez AND non-tender Jeffers. Neither is good enough to be a primary starting catcher. I don’t think anyone is giving us *anything* AND paying all of Vasquez’ contract.  I don’t believe they will trade Vasquez unless the gaining team pays all his contract. Non-tendering Jeffers doesn’t hurt us defensively, but it is a ding to the offense. Most of that can be mitigated by some prospect at a different position. Will it make the team better?  Probably not.   Will it save money?  Yes. Will they therefore do it?  Probably. 

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Zero percent chance he gets non-tendered... I think. 

Add me to the absolutely no debate whatsoever crowd. There is utterly no question the Twins are going to either avoid arbitration with Jeffers or tender him whatever contract gets decided on during arbitration. 29 teams would line up to bring Jeffers in at $5MM. It'd be like non-tendering Joe Ryan.

[DocBauer]

"And let’s not forget, that “contact” hitter approach still led to 21 home runs and the eighth-best slugging percentage of catchers who had 400 or more plate appearances"

I think that's a good place to start. Just entering what should be his prime seasons as a hitter at 27yo, he's already one of the top hitting catchers in ALL of MLB. He's been frustratingly inconsistent, but even so, he's very, very productive. And if he can just smooth out his consistency a bit more, there's room to be even better.

For ANY fielding position there is vast debate how to measure just how good ANYONE is defensively. There's at least 3 different camps in how to measure defensive ability. It becomes even harder for catchers. On one hand, there are debates that Jeffers is below average with the glove. His fielding % for his career is .994. It's hard to be better than that. But that's a bit old school and different metrics would say he's not that good. His CS % for his career is 20%, or about 5 % below what you'd want, though he has 2 years where he threw out 22 and 25%. But don't the pitchers also influence those numbers? There are those who feel pitch framing is a viable statistic, and those who feel it's arbitrary. A couple years ago he ranked amongst the best. So who's right and who's wrong there?

I am beyond trying to convince anyone Jeffers is solid behind the plate. Some of us don't like him, some of us think he's OK. We're never going to agree. 

There are SO FEW backstops that are 2 way performers like Mauer, Posey, Rodriguez, or Perez that I think we need a re-set of expectations. I have no illusions that Jeffers is, or ever will be, a Mauer clone behind the plate. But my criteria for a good backstop is not being a back hole behind the plate, or a traffic cop waving runners along like cars at an intersection. Jeffers is neither of those, even if we'd like more. I look for someone who calls a good game, and seems to have the confidence of the staff. I've been able to watch Jeffers throughout his career, and he's solid in those areas. 

Again, we're never going to all agree on how good Jeffers is, or not, or his worth. To me, he's a solid catcher and one of the best bats in MLB and room to still get better. Absolutely worth his impending 2025 contract.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Again, we're never going to all agree on how good Jeffers is, or not, or his worth. To me, he's a solid catcher and one of the best bats in MLB and room to still get better. Absolutely worth his impending 2025 contract.

Gallo and Jeffers -

The we should have kept Joey Gallo also, especially as he has very good glove at First Base.

 

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Enjoy this series looking at players up for arbitration, but instead of discussing whether some should be tendered or not perhaps it would be more useful to speculate as to a player's value in a trade.

There is no chance that the Twins let go of guys like Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Alcala, Jeffers, Lewis, or Larnach. Zero. It would be very surprising and frankly poor management to non-tender Willi Castro, especially after keeping Farmer and trading for Margot last offseason. Tonkin is likely let go and Topa and Stewart likely return, but no shock if these guys are let go.

Jeffers has value to other teams. Which teams is the trick to identify. Perhaps the Twins can send Jeffers and Lee to Milwaukee for Williams and Quero. Add Varland if he is needed to close the deal.

Or as so many others have already suggested, just keep everyone (not my plan). Either way, Jeffers is a decent MLB player.

Jeffers gets tendered…… no choice! His contact rate going up is nice but if 40% of the additional balls put in play are pop ups it’s not really a positive! I’d like to see him choke up all the time, not just after getting to 2 strikes - if he squares the ball better his power numbers will go up - he’s plenty strong enough to do damage up a couple inches on the handle.

Can’t move Vazquez - could never be $$ wise as Twins would have to cover 30-50% of his salary on another Team. The current tandem is fine on a good Club.

I’m with you on nearly all of this…….My guy to go acquire in Winter of ‘23-‘24 was Devin Williams. He had two years of control left then - He’s around $7.75M/year and only 1 year of control……..I like trading some pieces as you suggest, I just want a solid bat back though. A Carlos Santana type …….only 10 years younger……. 

I guess I differ on the Duran as a trade piece though……….he’s really good and if his pitch sequencing got a little better he’d be straight up great. That said, Jax is awfully good & could close regularly w/o an issue. Allows salary reduction and potential for some offensive punch coming back if Twins sweeten the pot with Duran.

Even trading Duran (and another guy or two) for a bat…….I still think the Pen could be a strength. Don’t see Paddack bringing back much value in trade so he’s in the Pen with Louie - Ronny - Jorge - Cole - Griffin - etc….. (Topa - Stewart - Winder - Headrick - Moran - Funderburk……as health allows) - Blewett…….maybe Raya in Pen by September?

[mikelink45]

As the comments indicate this is really not an issue.  We sign him, at that rate he is tradeable if you want Vasquez and Camargo (I don't). 

[rv78]

I'm all for trading away our young core and signing those washed up veterans who have done so much for this team the past 2 years. 

[umterp23]

I like Jeffers, don't dislike Vazquez as DocBauer points out there are may debatable ways we can say who is the guy.  

Jeffers from all-star break '23 to 1st part of '24 was very, very good for the Twins.  Dog days of summer kicked in back of half '24 but I will give him a pass for one reason:

The family tragedy of losing your 2nd child during pregnancy stage in March when your son would have been born in early July from what I could gather timing wise.  I would think mentally that takes a toll and physical it can show up in ways we try and define by performance.  

Baseball is hard, life can be harder.  

Looking forward to #27 in a Twins uniform in 25

[The Great Hambino]

40 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

I like Jeffers, don't dislike Vazquez as DocBauer points out there are may debatable ways we can say who is the guy.  

Jeffers from all-star break '23 to 1st part of '24 was very, very good for the Twins.  Dog days of summer kicked in back of half '24 but I will give him a pass for one reason:

The family tragedy of losing your 2nd child during pregnancy stage in March when your son would have been born in early July from what I could gather timing wise.  I would think mentally that takes a toll and physical it can show up in ways we try and define by performance.  

Baseball is hard, life can be harder.  

Looking forward to #27 in a Twins uniform in 25

I can say from personal experience that this is 100% accurate.

Everything is a blur in the immediate aftermath; it wears on you over time, especially as would-be milestones pass by.

All things considered, i think it's amazing he was able to play as well as he did in the early part of the season.

 

So, yeah, I'd tender him.  Setting aside everything above, you don't get rid of catchers when you have two viable Major League catchers in your system.  

[Otaknam]

Despite his defensive limitations, Jeffers isn’t the problem. The ludicrous $10 million per year three year contract for a part time Vasquez is the problem. Jeffers still has an offensive upside that Vasquez doesn’t have. But they are stuck with Vasquez because of the contract, unless they can find a trade partner and pay a large portion of the contract. Imagine not tendering Jeffers and having Vasquez as your every day catcher! 

[Whitey333]

Both catchers will be back.  Just a couple of years ago it seemed we had a very good catching situation.  Since then both Vazquez and Jeffers have become below average at that position.  Keep them through 2025 and go another direction from both of them. 

[RpR]

6 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Despite his defensive limitations, Jeffers isn’t the problem. The ludicrous $10 million per year three year contract for a part time Vasquez is the problem. Jeffers still has an offensive upside that Vasquez doesn’t have. But they are stuck with Vasquez because of the contract, unless they can find a trade partner and pay a large portion of the contract. Imagine not tendering Jeffers and having Vasquez as your every day catcher! 

Better option than Jeffers without exception.

[Mike Sixel]

Back and forth? On one of their best hitters? As a catcher? For less than five million? Zero chance he's not back, unless they trade him for a lot.