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Posted

For the Twins, this winter will focus on how the team can free up payroll space to upgrade parts of the roster. Here’s why that ought not to involve trading away their veteran backstop.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are entering another offseason where payroll decisions will dominate the discussion. With rising arbitration costs and needs across the roster, the front office will seek ways to free up some cash. One option floating around involves moving veteran catcher Christian Vázquez. However, despite the financial incentives, the Twins should be hesitant to let go of their reliable backstop, especially given his intangible contributions and impact on a young pitching staff.

Vázquez came to the Twins with a sterling reputation as a defensive-minded catcher who could handle a pitching staff. His bat might not blow anyone away, as he hit .221/.248/.327 with 17 extra-base hits in 2024. However, the value he provides goes well beyond the box score. 

As one of Minnesota’s primary catchers in 2024, Vázquez offered stability to a Twins rotation that featured a mix of veterans and up-and-coming arms. He played a crucial role in helping veterans like Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan solidify themselves among the league’s top starters. Vázquez also mentored young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. These pitchers, who could play pivotal roles for the Twins in 2025, are still learning the nuances of pitching in the big leagues, and having someone like Vázquez behind the plate can make a world of difference.

Vázquez’s experience shines in his game-calling and ability to manage high-leverage situations. Defensively, his Fielding Run Value (78th percentile) and Framing (84th percentile) were worth 11 runs for the Twins. In particular, his framing has significantly increased during his time with the Twins, as he posted his highest Framing Run Value (6) since the 2019 season. This is the kind of defensive presence teams can't easily replace.

The Twins have invested heavily in their pitching development pipeline, which will pay off in the coming years. Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews each showed glimpses of their potential in 2024, but development is rarely linear. Minnesota also has other top pitching prospects, such as Marco Raya and Andrew Morris, who are on the cusp of the big leagues. As these arms take on more prominent roles in 2025, they'll need a steady hand to guide them through the inevitable growing pains.

Woods Richardson and Festa, in particular, are expected to occupy key rotation spots next season and each is still refining his command and pitch sequencing—something that Vázquez can help with. Festa’s elite velocity could be harnessed more effectively with the right pitch mix, while Woods Richardson is looking to solidify his secondary offerings. Both players showed positive signs in 2024, and now the Twins need to help them avoid a sophomore slump. A veteran catcher who knows the tendencies of major-league hitters and can communicate those adjustments mid-game is invaluable.

The natural follow-up to moving Vázquez is turning the starting catching duties over to Ryan Jeffers, and making Jair Camargo the backup. Jeffers has made significant strides at the plate, becoming a more well-rounded hitter, and Camargo offers exciting pop with his bat. However, defensively, this tandem would represent a major downgrade. Jeffers is coming off arguably his worst defensive season, with a -7 Fielding Run-Value and a -8 Framing Run-Value. Meanwhile, Camargo is still very much a work in progress defensively. Over the long haul of a season, those defensive gaps add up.

If the Twins want to be serious about contending, especially with a young rotation on the rise, keeping a catcher with Vázquez’s defensive prowess and veteran savvy is crucial. While payroll concerns are legitimate, and Vázquez is owed $10 million in 2025, the potential cost of losing him goes beyond his salary. A young staff will miss his mentorship, and the team will lose a trusted game planner in tight situations. Besides, the Twins would have to include other talent in a Vázquez deal and get back fairly little in return, since his contract has negative net value in such moves.

Jeffers and Camargo may form the catching duo of the future, but 2025 is a pivotal year for the Twins. After missing the playoffs in 2024, the margin for error will be thin, and every little advantage counts. Vázquez provides an edge beyond numbers on a stat sheet. including the leadership and expertise a contending team needs.

Trading Vázquez might save the Twins some money in the short term, but it could cost them in ways that are harder to quantify. With a rotation set to feature more young arms in 2025, Vázquez’s ability to handle a pitching staff and guide the team’s young talent will be indispensable. Jeffers and Camargo bring offensive upside, but Vázquez is the glue that can hold the staff together during critical stretches. In a season where winning is a must, moving Vázquez would be a gamble the Twins can’t afford to take.


Will the Twins attempt to trade Vázquez? Can Jeffers and Camargo handle the catching duties? Leave a comment and start the discussion.


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Posted
6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd go a step further; I'd even listen on Jeffers if it helped upgrade the team elsewhere. Love his bat, but pairing Vazquez's with another strong defensive catcher would be a way to upgrade the pitching staff in my opinion. 

This is priority number one for me. Find a way to trade for a good young catcher, even if the Twins must overpay, and then find a team interested in Jeffers. Nearly every iteration of moves I can think of involve moving Jeffers, but first another catcher must be acquired to work with Vazquez.

I have no idea how other teams value the Twins players, but I'm wondering what Milwaukee, Boston, or Seattle would require for their young guys.

Posted

Vazquez has value to this team. With a budget in the 160 million range they can keep him and meet other needs. At the current budget they are going to need to prioritize better their spending better than they did in 2023.

Are there teams willing to pay his full salary and give up something in return? In that case I would trade him. I think his full salary used elsewhere is more valuable to the team.

I would not give up prospect capital or pay off part of his contract or take on part of a DeSclafani/Margot contract in order to make a deal work. In that case I think Vazquez has more value to the team.

Posted

I've got to believe there will be a defensive minded Drew Butera like catcher available for much less than the 10 million we're paying Vasquez. I'd keep Jeffers, only because even if we do hold on to Vasquez, this is his last year with us. Moving 10 million off the payroll could buy a few bullpen arms we desperately need.

Posted

I know there has been a lot of uproar about moving Vazquez and his salary, but I am not completely on board with that.

Strong defense, stays healthy, veteran leadership, slightly below avg bat for the position... He may be an overpay, but not so much that I see it as a problem (except maybe in Minnesota).

I wouldn't be shocked if he was moved.  I would be disappointed if the move was a salary dump.

Posted
4 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I've got to believe there will be a defensive minded Drew Butera like catcher available for much less than the 10 million we're paying Vasquez. I'd keep Jeffers, only because even if we do hold on to Vasquez, this is his last year with us. Moving 10 million off the payroll could buy a few bullpen arms we desperately need.

I would be willing to wager if Vazquez was a FA this year, he would get at least $7-8m for next year.  I am not sure the Twins would save much exchanging catchers.  Vazquez being a known quantity in Minnesota is also a huge factor
 

Posted

Sorry, but disagree. Should we keep him - Sure.  Should we have a reasonable 2025 MLB Team Salary - also Sure!

Fact is, the money is better invested in full time roles instead of a part time one with a replacement at minimum salary already on the roster.  

Jefferies has had 2 years to learn under Vazquez's leadership - I hope he has because we need to use that $10M elsewhere if we want to be in the race for the AL Central next year.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

This is priority number one for me. Find a way to trade for a good young catcher, even if the Twins must overpay, and then find a team interested in Jeffers. Nearly every iteration of moves I can think of involve moving Jeffers, but first another catcher must be acquired to work with Vazquez.

I have no idea how other teams value the Twins players, but I'm wondering what Milwaukee, Boston, or Seattle would require for their young guys.

I've been advocating this for years. Jeffers & Carmargo are not our capable future. MIL, BOS, SEA, LAD, BAL & CO are good places to look. But is Falvey capable of closing on one? We have the players to trade, do it

Posted

Thank you Cody for voicing my sentiments & stating common sense in chaos. Is Vazquez an overpay? Yes he is that's Falvey's fault. Is he indispensable to the Twins? Yes, he is. We need to cut fat not muscle. There are a few places we need to cut that won't affect the Twins but cutting Vazquez will drastically affect the Twins. Keeping Vazquez will solve our catching problem for '25 but how about the future? Jeffers hasn't & probably will never develop into a primary catcher remotely.

Posted
1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

With a budget in the 160 million range they can keep him and meet other needs. At the current budget they are going to need to prioritize better their spending better than they did in 2023.

It might be best to assume (no matter the saying) a payroll of $120-140 million. Go from there.

Posted

They have pretty much openly stated that they aren't slashing payroll this off season. I don't think Vazquez is on the block. I don't believe he will be traded just to dump his salary. I think if he were traded it would be a legitimate trade to try to improve the team. What I don't see is us trading for a large salary or any FA splash. I also don't see them having the $$$$ to bring even a Santana back. 1B will be an internal add. Paddock? Maybe. But that return would also be minimal. A low level milb or two.

They have zero wriggle room.

Posted

Objectively valuing Vazquez vs. his peers looks about like this:
Controlling run game - Below average
Blocking pitches - Average 
Catcher framing - Anywhere from good to excellent (depending on the metric you use)
Vazquez is an average to very good defensive catcher based on which catcher framing metric you use, and how much you believe in catcher framing.

From a plate side of things, he's just plain abysmal to the point it totally offsets even the best of his defensive metrics. Contrary to the popular belief, the median catcher was an average hitter last year. #16 of 32 catchers with 300+ PA was Francisco Alvarez wRC+ 102.
Vazquez ranked a miserable #31 of 32 catchers with 300+ PA last year in wRC+ at an unplayable 60. His offensive value cost the Twins 17 runs vs. the average MLB batter.

Now, Vazquez's fans like bringing in arguments like "game calling" which has been debated in regard to how much that's in the hands of the catcher with the Twins, and it's a stat which has utterly eluded attempts to quantify it as a meaningful device in recent years. Furthermore catchers can use "cheat sheets" nowadays to see data on which batters struggle with which pitches. In all honesty, it seems most of the game calling is from the analytics department and coaching staff these days.

The other argument which Vazquez's ardent supporters will bring up is "veteran leadership." It seems to be a factor which is also non-quantifiable, which is why it's so often brought into discussion. 

Christian Vazquez is a bad MLB player, but the Twins don't have any depth behind him (thanks, Obama!) so the Twins cannot move Vazquez without acquiring an MLB caliber catcher to replace him. The net savings of paying another team to take Vazquez (because of his negative trade value) and the Twins signing another catcher to replace Vazquez would be minimal. That's why he's likely to stick around.

Posted
25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

From a plate side of things, he's just plain abysmal to the point it totally offsets even the best of his defensive metrics. Contrary to the popular belief, the median catcher was an average hitter last year. #16 of 32 catchers with 300+ PA was Francisco Alvarez wRC+ 102.
Vazquez ranked a miserable #31 of 32 catchers with 300+ PA last year in wRC+ at an unplayable 60. His offensive value cost the Twins 17 runs vs. the average MLB batter.

There are 60 catchers on MLB rosters, not 30. The median hitting catcher would be #30, not #16. Your analysis would be like comparing starting pitchers and picking #40 as the "median" starting pitcher.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are 60 catchers on MLB rosters, not 30. The median hitting catcher would be #30, not #16. Your analysis would be like comparing starting pitchers and picking #40 as the "median" starting pitcher.

 

I compared him to his peers. Not guys who got a handful of plate appearances because most teams have a primary catcher and a true "backup" rather than the Twins full platoon approach. Christian Vazquez is a starting MLB catcher earning $10MM a year and playing over 300 PA a season.

But I'll go ahead and take the sample size down to a 120 plate appearances to get to your number which is now like comparing a starting outfielder to a AAAA 4th outfielder who occasionally gets a PA. 

The median hitter, Luis Torrens with a whopping 130 PA ranks #30 at wRC+ 90. He was a little above average defensively and produced the same value as Christian Vazquez at 0.8 fWAR on the season.

If we increase the sample size to 200 PA (which is pretty much the minimum for a legit sample size) we have 45 catchers and the median half way between #22 (Logan O'Hoppe) and #23 (Carson Kelly) is wRC+ 100. Again, catchers are average hitters. 

Christian Vazquez ranks #52 of 60 catchers with 120+ PA last year. Only 1 catcher with more than 158 PA was worse at the plate.

Posted
3 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

You keep him for the simple reason there is no viable replacement. Better have one by 2026.

You keep Vazquez because Camargo was:

Called up April 13 and Sent Down April 22

then 

Called up July 12 and sent down July 25

then

Called up September 9 and sent down September 11

then

Called up September 26 and sent down September 27. 

During these times of 26 man roster assignment for Jair Camargo. He had 7 AB's. 

If the Twins traded Vazquez and handed the back up job to Camargo this off-season. I'd drive to 1 Twins Way and throw tomatoes at the window. 

Free Agent Catchers are expensive. If the Twins traded Vazquez and picked up a free agent catcher to replace Vazquez. It will also be expensive. If the catcher we acquire is not expensive... the catcher acquired will not be better than Camargo. 

If the Twins trade for a catcher to replace Vazquez. The trade will be expensive from a talent stand point because catching is expensive.  

Posted

If the Twins can fix the rest of the offense, then carrying a guy that doesn't hit well at catcher is acceptable.  He provides a lot defensively and probably does quite a bit to help those young pitchers.  That is actually quite a lot. 

IF they had someone to replace him, then I'm all over trading him for salary relief.  However, that guy doesn't exist in the organization yet.  Perhaps another trade could fix that. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

If the Twins can fix the rest of the offense, then carrying a guy that doesn't hit well at catcher is acceptable.  He provides a lot defensively and probably does quite a bit to help those young pitchers.  That is actually quite a lot. 

IF they had someone to replace him, then I'm all over trading him for salary relief.  However, that guy doesn't exist in the organization yet.  Perhaps another trade could fix that. 

Do you think there is a fit to trade with Milwaukee (Lee for Jeferson Quero) or Boston (Ryan & Topa for Kyle Teel) as a reasonable transaction that could benefit both teams?

Posted
4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

...During these times of 26 man roster assignment for Jair Camargo. He had 7 AB's. ...

As important as the fact the Twins had no desire to play Camargo is the reason why.
The .212/.290/.403 OPS .693 line generated in the extremely hitter friendly AAA International League was good for a wRC+ 76 rating. Almost as bad at AAA as Vazquez was at MLB, and Camargo isn't known as great defensively.

Camargo is a borderline bust right now. The Twins haven't had a catcher prospect break through to the top 20 since Ryan Jeffers was a prospect. There is zero depth down there. Of course, part of that is Falvey pretty much forgot the catcher position even existed after he drafted Jeffers in 2018.

Posted
35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you think there is a fit to trade with Milwaukee (Lee for Jeferson Quero) or Boston (Ryan & Topa for Kyle Teel) as a reasonable transaction that could benefit both teams?

Not sure, but that's probably the kind of trade that could be done to work this out.  Personally, I'm in the keep Ryan camp, but I could trade Lee. 

Posted

If the Twins had another catcher in the system they would be better off moving Jeffers from behind the plate to maybe 1st base? Jeffers is not a starting caliber defensive catcher. He's not great at blocking pitches or framing and he's poor at throwing out runners. He's a decent hitter (usually) but his defense suffers. Vasquez is a poor hitter for sure, but IMO you can give up some offense for defense at the catcher position.

Posted
9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

As important as the fact the Twins had no desire to play Camargo is the reason why.
The .212/.290/.403 OPS .693 line generated in the extremely hitter friendly AAA International League was good for a wRC+ 76 rating. Almost as bad at AAA as Vazquez was at MLB, and Camargo isn't known as great defensively.

Camargo is a borderline bust right now. The Twins haven't had a catcher prospect break through to the top 20 since Ryan Jeffers was a prospect. There is zero depth down there. Of course, part of that is Falvey pretty much forgot the catcher position even existed after he drafted Jeffers in 2018.

No doubt... It's a pretty disappointing stat line from Camargo. His 2023 stat line was much better. 21 Dingers... .826 OPS in 2023.

He got himself one of those 40 man spots in the off-season so there was a time when the Twins must have thought he was worth something and he kept that 40 man spot all year. Still has it. 

Yet by April 13th... granted... still sitting in small sample land. Camargo was called up to replace an injured SS when Correa strained an oblique. Granted... its a little early to jettison players off the 40 man or react to small samples. The injuries came quick and the injuries didn't come at the catcher position. It was either Camargo or Severino so the Twins went with a third catcher to replace our superstar SS and he didn't play.

Camargo was batting third for the Saints with an OPS of .825 on April 12 much like his 2023 season OPS that earned him that 40 man spot. 

Max Kepler returned on April 21 sending Camargo down to AAA. 

On the day that Camargo was sent down to AAA to resume his .825 OPS... Vazquez was sitting with a .158 OPS and .222 slug. The Twins were 7-12 at the time.

Sarcastically from me...  It seems... By April 21st the Twins had determined that Camargo could never out play Vazquez. Determined that if Camargo would have played during this time... the Twins would have been 5-14 instead of 7-12 without Vazquez. I'm sure my sarcasm isn't the case... there has to be more to the story because... Camargo kept that 40 man spot all year.

He kept that 40 man spot on July 12th when he was called back up to replace Kyle Farmer who had a shoulder strain. Again the Twins went with a stable of 3 catchers to replace a infielder.

On July 11... Gardenhire was batting Camargo 4th in the lineup with an OPS of .729. 

Who else was in AAA on July 11? Severino OPS .841 and Julien OPS .763 both were on the 40 man roster.

On July 11th... Severino went 3 for 6 with two home runs his 17th and 18th of the year against the Iowa Cubs. Camargo was called up instead. Also in St. Paul on July 11th not on the 40 man... Keirsay OPS .810 and Castillo OPS .777... Castillo was given a roster spot and called up two days later when it was determined that Miranda's back could use some rest. Boushley was DFA'd to accommodate. Julien would be recalled on July 20 when Correa was placed on the injured list as the injured list is making a noticeable humming noise. 

Camargo is sent down on July 25th. Up with the big club for two full weeks exactly. On July 24th. Vazquez was the holder of a .196/.222/.293 slash. Also on July 24th... Ryan Jeffers was in an extended slump thing with a .587 OPS over his last 170 AB's since May 15th. Camargo kept watching from the bench for two full weeks. Can't play Camargo because we might lose... can't take him off the 40 man because we might lose him?

If anyone ever wonders why I believe that player assessment is hard for all 30 front offices. Why I believe that assessment is hard because the margins are incredibly thin. Why I believe that front offices, managers, coaches and scouts are able to silently kill careers based on pre-determinations on small margins that are often wrong. Just follow the travels of 2024 Camargo. 

Assessed Camargo good enough for a 40 man spot but not good enough to out play a .575 OPS 

You are right... Catcher Development Has Sucked. Which is unfortunate because Catchers are consistent over pays. You develop a catcher... teams will over pay to acquire that catcher. If you don't develop your own catcher.. you will have to over pay to acquire a catcher. For example 30 million paid to bring in Vazquez. 

Could you trade Vazquez? Nope... because the Twins have failed to develop a catcher. Instead we acted like a 33 year old with  .575 OPS could not be replaced. 

Posted

I doubt Vasquez will be moved due to his contract.  10 mill is way too high for a part time player.  Wait.  I forgot we've been paying Buxton millions each year and he's part time.  At this point the Twins finished 4th in the division.  They look like a 4th place team next year as well.

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