Moneyball: Recreating Willi Castro in the Aggregate

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins will have a tough arbitration decision to make regarding Willi Castro next month. While the decision comes down to dollars more than production, could the Twins get more bang for their buck by non-tendering Castro?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Willi Castro has arguably been the Twins' most valuable player for two years running. He’s played passable defense (or better) at six of the eight defensive positions; that led to him getting votes for a Gold Glove Award in 2024. The crafty righthander has even given the team 3 ⅔ shutout innings on the mound. Over the last two seasons, he has 916 at-bats, boasting a .251/.334/.395 slash line with 80 extra-base hits, 94 RBIs, and 47 stolen bases, all while carrying a 23.9% K rate and 8.1% BB rate.

Castro’s journey to the Minnesota Twins has been well-documented: After four-ish below-average seasonswith the Tigers, he was non-tendered in November 2022, and a month later, the Twins signed him to a minor-league deal. He’s the ultimate underdog story and, boy, do people love rooting for an underdog. But sometimes that story can blind us from reality, as was the case with Randy Dobnak and Willians Astudillo. Those two guys were easy to root for and fun to watch, but even when the production waned, we heard plenty of fans clamoring for bigger roles because of their backstories. Could the same thing be happening with Castro? Could the Twins be better served to non-tender Castro and replace his production through multiple avenues?

Admittedly, prior to reading Nick Nelson’s tweet, I thought it was a no-brainer that Minnesota would bring Castro back. After all, FanGraphs values his production at $43.6 million over the last two seasons, so how could you say no to a salary that is projected to be roughly a quarter of his annual worth?

But Nick forced me to take off my underdog-colored glasses and really think about the value Castro provides, in the added context of the Twins' self-imposed salary cap. Why spend that much on a utility man with a 108 wRC+, when you could spend a fraction of that on a prospect to leave some room for reinforcements elsewhere? Or as Brad Pitt told us in Moneyball, the Twins may be better off trying to recreate him in the aggregate.

Enter Yunior Severino.

The 25-year-old Severino signed with the Twins back when he was a teenager, after the Braves were sanctioned for violations of IFA signing rules and he was declared a free agent for a second time. Despite posting above-average numbers from 2019-23 from Low A through Double A, the switch-hitter never really found himself gaining the prospect pedigree that you might expect of someone who keeps performing well at multiple levels. Regardless of what outsiders thought, the Twins viewed him as a valuable asset to the organization and (somewhat surprisingly) added him to the 40-man roster last November–protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. What did the Twins see that others didn’t?

Well, we know that the Twins really, really value versatility. Throughout his minor-league career, Severino has bounced around the diamond, seeing time at every position aside from pitcher and catcher. More recently, looking at the 2024 season, the utility man saw time at first base, third base, and right field. Various scouting reports indicate that his defense is not a strength, evidenced by his positional versatility shrinking with each season. That said, he can play mostly anywhere if it’s needed, and when you have a bat like his, there is value in that.

With the St. Paul Saints, Severino had a .254/.342/.434 slash line, with 21 homers and a solid 12% walk rate. His plate discipline and swing decisions are very solid and, while strikeouts have been a concern over his career, a 27.3% K rate in 2024 is an improvement compared to his stint at the same level in 2023. The elevated strikeout rate can be partially attributed to his all-or-nothing approach at the plate, as he has a below-average contact rate of 66.7%. But, once again, that number is an improvement over what we saw in 2023, which is encouraging to see from a prospect. So, can Severino really be considered a Willi Castro replacement?

Short answer: no. But there’s more nuance than that – it’s not black and white.

Again, this comes back to money. While Severino is a clear downgrade from Castro, if the Twins elect to “save” money here allowing them to spend elsewhere, then we could be looking at a situation where they’re getting more bang for their buck. Instead of paying "just" Castro, what if the Twins can pay Severino, plus one or two relief arms that help bridge the gap between the starters and the back end of the bullpen? What if, given the versatility of Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and José Miranda (in addition to Severino), there is less of a need for super utility than there was the last two seasons?

Going back to Moneyball, the Twins shouldn’t be focusing on how they can replace Castro, but how they can recreate him in the aggregate. With that in mind, I no longer think that Castro is a lock to be on the Twins' 2025 roster. In fact, I may have been swayed to the other side of the argument. While his contributions have been more than expected and greatly appreciated, maybe it makes the most sense to non-tender him in a month and find value elsewhere.

What would you do in this situation? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[mrcharlie]

I keep him.  He deserves the opportunity.  You recognize Severini would be a downgrade.  Castro was arguably the Twins MVP when you consider playng time.  He did get the call to play in All Star Game.  If they choose to sign and trade, I like that idea because his value is high now.  Just don't expect a front line player for him...a solid relief pitcher would be nice (strahm, of Phillies comes to mind).

[Jocko87]

The venn diagram of Castro and Severino skill sets is two square circles.  In different rooms.

 

[bean5302]

Quote

...His plate discipline and swing decisions are very solid...
...he has a below-average contact rate of 66.7%...

Those two are a bit of a dichotomy. In a vacuum, he doesn't swing a ton at pitches outside the zone, which is good, but he's at the very lower ranges of acceptable for swinging at pitches in the zone, and that's compared to MLB hitters who are up against much better pitching. So Severino is pretty picky about what he swings at, and despite that, his contact rates are very poor. It's nice that his contact rate against strikes was much improved this past season because it was horrible in 2023.

Severino was roughly league average in AAA over both 2023 (wRC+ 100) and 2024 (wRC+ 101 with a .321 BABIP). His walks were marginally up (9.8% to 11.9%) and his strikeouts down significantly (36.6% to 27.3%), but that came with a massive drop in power production (.278 ISO to .180 ISO). 

Despite him being just 24 years old, 2025 will be his 9th year in an MLB organization. Severino failed to pan out as a 2B/3B or... as the Twins delusionally hoped, SS. He has shown some flashes at the plate, but apart from an absolutely scorching June, he was pedestrian for a prospect or borderline unplayable (wRC+ 63 for Aug/Sep) last year.

There's just not much to project for him. If the Twins weren't in a major payroll crunch, he'd likely be a DFA candidate.

[Matthew Lenz]

33 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

I keep him.  He deserves the opportunity.  You recognize Severini would be a downgrade.  Castro was arguably the Twins MVP when you consider playng time.  He did get the call to play in All Star Game.  If they choose to sign and trade, I like that idea because his value is high now.  Just don't expect a front line player for him...a solid relief pitcher would be nice (strahm, of Phillies comes to mind).

I wouldn't hate a sign and trade at all, but I wonder how much last year impacts them. It very much seemed (and may have been confirmed) that the Twins only tendered him assuming they could trade him. Now, Willi would be a more attractive option to teams but nonetheless have to wonder if the Twins are too riks adverse after last year.

[tony&rodney]

Does San Diego need a player like Willi Castro? Castro plus $1.2M for Bryan Hoeing? I'm leaning towards an agreement that Castro may be a luxury with a $130M budget, although there is room for him at a $140M roster. Still, agree that some tough decisions will need to be made. I also like the idea of Severino as a Twin.

[Beast]

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success?  It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades.

Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success.

Same as playing the Powerball as a retirement strategy.  Sure, someone somewhere has allegedly accomplished this.  But, far from advisable is an understatement.

If Severino were any good, they’d have found a way to use him by now.

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, Beast said:

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success?  It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades.

Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success.

Same as playing the Powerball as a retirement strategy.  Sure, someone somewhere has allegedly accomplished this.  But, far from advisable is an understatement.

If Severino were any good, they’d have found a way to use him by now.

The Phillies and Padres have spent freely and won squat 

[Brandon]

The Twins will keep him next season.  7 million is not too much of it is expect Paddack to be traded first.

[LewFordLives]

I've never been a fan of $/WAR calculations. They are usually based on free-agent contracts, which are often inflated based on past performance and result in regret for the signing teams. If Castro were to hit the open market, no one would pay him $20+ million per year.

That said, is Castro worth $6.7 million? Hell yes. But what is the opportunity cost to the Twins? Is that money better spent as a down payment on a stop-gap starting pitcher? Is it enough to bring back Carlos Santana?  It's a tough call. Maybe the hardest decision Falvey will make this off-season.

[NYCTK]

12 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Phillies and Padres have spent freely and won squat 

Phillies won a pennant and Padres have a very good team that is adored by sell out crowds. 

Using these two teams as if they're examples of poorly run clubs is weird. 

[Trov]

He will not be non-tendered.  They will either keep him or trade him, but he not be just let go. 

[Doctor Gast]

The idea when you need to right size is to cut fat. But last offseason Falvey's idea is to cut heart & soul, (the chemistry wasn't the same this year) & keep the fat plus add more fat to replace the vital missing parts. Now he wants to continue by cutting muscle while keeping fat. He has grown quite fond of the fat because it's his fat.

FOs like to leak & hype up their ideas via social media. I hate the ideas that are floating around because they are cutting muscle (their value will continue to go up). Trading Castro, Ryan, Lopez, Duran & even Vazquez we are trading away muscle that'll drastically change the Twins' outlook for the worse. Yes, Vazquez is expensive & I'd like a better & cheaper solution but we don't have one. The alternative is disastrous.

What's the fat I'm alluding to? The fat that has been hyped up that their trade value was very high last season but has since become significantly lower & is still dropping, that needs to be traded as soon as possible. One is Ryan Jeffers. He's a good hitting backup catcher who given sufficient rest can hit well & be an average defensive catcher. But when put into a resemblance of primary duties, 1st his defensive crashes & later his hitting wanes. Last offseason he was worth around $35M surplus trade value by BBTV, he's now worth $13M & if Vazquez is traded Jeffers would crash (as before) and be lucky to be worth $5M. A promising. underrated, defensive, MLB-ready young catcher should have been obtained to become our future catcher a long time ago. Jeffers will become a FA in a couple of years & Boras is his agent. As Falvey's hand-picked & only option for primary catcher, we have no option other than signing him to a very outrageous extension for a backup catcher! 

Another is Julien. His future was never at 2B, we had much better options there. His trade value peaked & was comparable to Jeffers & he was not needed & should have been traded to fill in holes. The league has the book out on him & has taken away his HR advantage so he needs to reinvent himself as a contact hitter or be another Sano which he no longer profiles as a 1Bman. He still has retained most of his hyped value, so he has to go before his value tanks. He is one of Falvey's failed-hitting philosophy darlings, who still find it hard to trade but he definitely needs to be sooner the better. Gabriel Gonzales was really hyped & his prospect trade value was high. He'll never make the MLB as a Twin, trade him before his value tanks.

Paddack is one of Falvey's trade mistakes that was extended to somehow justify his actions. This one I do agree with. A lot of. money has been spent to keep him around. We can find a cheaper replacement & he wouldn't be missed. There is some talk about Larnach for a RH counterpart. LH hitters are a premium so I'd hold onto him unless I'm blown away with a deal. Also about Miranda & Kiriloff. I definitely hold onto them because they are great hitters who should finally get a bona fide shot at 1B.

We cannot replace Castro, do you know how hard it is to find a player of his caliber? A lot of have been asked of Martin but to ask him to replace Castro is too much! Martin needs to be broken in easier than what he has been asked to do w/o adding more.  Who'll sub at SS when Correa & Lee are down? Severino has played many positions not because he's flexible & good at them but because he has failed at them & is mainly asked to play 1B. People loved his bat, but I have my doubts that he can achieve what he has before now the pitchers have adjusted. Castro should have been extended last season, Now he'll be more expensive but a lot less than Jeffers.

 

[old nurse]

23 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Phillies won a pennant and Padres have a very good team that is adored by sell out crowds. 

Using these two teams as if they're examples of poorly run clubs is weird. 

I di not say that they were poorly run franchises. That is very poor reading on your part.  The person I responded to said Oakland has won squat during the Billy Bean era. The Phillies and San Diego over the same period have not won as many division championships. The Phillies had a 10 year streak of mediocrity 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, old nurse said:

I di not say that they were poorly run franchises. That is very poor reading on your part.  The person I responded to said Oakland has won squat during the Billy Bean era. The Phillies and San Diego over the same period have not won as many division championships. The Phillies had a 10 year streak of mediocrity 

Fair. I guess my point is, no one would prefer to be the A's over the Padres or Phillies so it's a weird comparison to draw. 

[old nurse]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The idea when you need to right size is to cut fat. But last offseason Falvey's idea is to cut heart & soul, (the chemistry wasn't the same this year) & keep the fat plus add more fat to replace the vital missing parts. Now he wants to continue by cutting muscle while keeping fat. He has grown quite fond of the fat because it's his fat.

FOs like to leak & hype up their ideas via social media. I hate the ideas that are floating around because they are cutting muscle (their value will continue to go up). Trading Castro, Ryan, Lopez, Duran & even Vazquez we are trading away muscle that'll drastically change the Twins' outlook for the worse. Yes, Vazquez is expensive & I'd like a better & cheaper solution but we don't have one. The alternative is disastrous.

What's the fat I'm alluding to? The fat that has been hyped up that their trade value was very high last season but has since become significantly lower & is still dropping, that needs to be traded as soon as possible. One is Ryan Jeffers. He's a good hitting backup catcher who given sufficient rest can hit well & be an average defensive catcher. But when put into a resemblance of primary duties, 1st his defensive crashes & later his hitting wanes. Last offseason he was worth around $35M surplus trade value by BBTV, he's now worth $13M & if Vazquez is traded he'd crash (as before) be lucky to be worth $5M. A promising. underrated, defensive, MLB ready young catcher should have been obtained to become our future catcher a long time ago. Jeffers will become a FA in a couple of years & Boras is his agent. As Falvey's hand-picked & only option for primary catcher, we have no other than signing him to very outrageous extension for a backup catcher! 

Another is Julien. His future was never at 2B, we had much better options there. His trade value peaked & was comparable to Jeffers & he was not needed & should have been traded to fill in holes. The league has the book out on him & has taken away his HR advantage so he needs to reinvent himself as a contact hitter or be another Sano which he no longer profiles as a 1Bman. He still has retained most of his hyped value, so he has to go before his value tanks. He is one of his failed-hitting philosophy darlings, who still find it hard to trade but he definitely needs to be sooner the better. Gabriel Gonzales was really hyped & his prospect trade value was high. He'll never make the MLB as a Twin, trade him before his value tanks.

Paddack is one of Falvey's trade mistakes that was extended to somehow justify his actions. This one I do agree with. A lot of. money has been spent to keep him around. We can find a cheaper replacement & he wouldn't be missed. There is some talk about Larnach for a RH counterpart. LH hitters are a premium so I'd hold onto him unless I'm blown away with a deal. Also about Miranda & Kiriloff. I definitely hold onto them because they are great hitters who should finally get a bona fide shot at 1B.

We cannot replace Castro, do you know how hard it is to find a player of his caliber? A lot of have been asked of Martin but to asked him replace Castro is too much! Martin needs to be broken in easier than what he has been asked to do w/o adding more.  Who'll sub at SS when Correa & Lee are down? Severino has played many positions not because he's flexible & good at them but because he has failed at them & is mainly asked to play 1B. People loved his bat, but I have my doubts that he can achieve what he has before now the pitchers have adjusted. Castro should have been extended last season, Now he'll be more expensive but lot less than Jeffers.

 

If other teams had the book on Julien by the end of the year then despite what baseball trade values said, he did not have value

Paddack was paid 2.5 million last  the cheaper replacements of Varland and Mathehews did not pitch better, Festa was about the same. The 2.5 million replacement would come from where? 

[jorgenswest]

Tender decision are about excess value. Does Castro provide clear value in excess of his projected contract? I am as confident Castro meets that bar this year as I was last year that Farmer did not.

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Fair. I guess my point is, no one would prefer to be the A's over the Padres or Phillies so it's a weird comparison to draw. 

What is so weird about pointing out that the A’s have cycled up and down over time just as the Padres and Phillies have? The Phillies and the Padres are on up cycles right now, the A’s are on a down cycle.  History will also show that when the Padres are on a down cycle they are not beloved like the Cubs once were

[LambchoP]

Castro won't be let go for nothing. He has good value to plenty of teams, we should be able to get maybe a good relief pitcher and possibly some salary relief out of him. Problem is, we don't have a solid Castro replacement. Martin can play the OF and 2nd base, but unless he takes a major step forward this year, he's a borderline dfa guy. Maybe Keaschal or Eeles? I'd say they've got the best chance at becoming our utility guy, if they can continue the success they had last year at AAA and immediately produce in the bigs. Will be an interesting off season.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins should absolutely sign Willi Castro and Keep him.

I have no problem with WIlli Castro. He's a decent ballplayer with multi position ability with speed that the club sorely lacks.  

With that said... here is the problem that I have with Castro. 

Willi Castro is not a problem. Willi Castro leading the team in AB's is a problem. 102 OPS+ should not lead a team in AB's and our ultra platoon system will have Willi leading the team in AB's in 2025. Our injury history with our best returning players will lead to Willi Castro leading the team in AB's in 2025. We have over inflated his value due to the Twins prioritization of keeping our platooning system intact. 

Wallner, Larnach, Julien or Kirilloff will occupy the 3 long side platoon roster spots.

Castro's splits don't justify one of the three short side spots and I don't believe we can afford to pay 6 million for a short side spot anyway. 

This means Castro will get one of 5 every day spots with a 102 OPS+. That's a problem. Utilizing Castro every day like he is Mookie Betts is a problem. 

 

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, old nurse said:

What is so weird about pointing out that the A’s have cycled up and down over time just as the Padres and Phillies have? The Phillies and the Padres are on up cycles right now, the A’s are on a down cycle.  History will also show that when the Padres are on a down cycle they are not beloved like the Cubs once were

You could make that argument for the Padres, but the Padres haven't been a free spending organization for more than 5 years. I don't know how San Diego will treat the Padres once they go through some rebuilding phase. We do know they still averaged 40,000 fans during last years disappointment year, and more than the Twins did in their 2023 division winning season when they lost 96 games in 2018. So...I don't know how you can just suggest San Diego fans are only glory chasers? 

And then comparing them to the Phillies, who have been to 3 World Series and another 2 LCS in that span, is just foolish. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

If other teams had the book on Julien by the end of the year then despite what baseball trade values said, he did not have value

Paddack was paid 2.5 million last  the cheaper replacements of Varland and Mathehews did not pitch better, Festa was about the same. The 2.5 million replacement would come from where? 

Agreed Paddack isn't a slam dunk, he still has some value. His name has been floated around in trade talks & IMO he is, unlike others mentioned, replaceable. We could possibly find someone just as good & cheaper on the trade market & if they are good at spotting pitchers on waivers.

[LewFordLives]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed Paddack isn't a slam dunk, he still has some value. His name has been floated around in trade talks & IMO he is, unlike others mentioned, replaceable. We could possibly find someone just as good & cheaper on the trade market & if they are good at spotting pitchers on waivers.

I would like to see Paddack gone. The problem is they desperately need another starter, and the only type they can afford is a reclamation project like....... Chris Paddack!

Can they find someone just as good for cheaper, maybe, but I think it's unlikely.

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, Beast said:

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success?  It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades.

Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success...

Moneyball is about embracing analytics. Every team does this now, but for the Athletics, the method represented a major advantage over other teams. The Athletics would have been even better with analytics AND a big payroll. 

I'm not sure what relationship analytics methodology has to the Royals' rebuild... which came after being in back to back World Series' in 2014-2015. The Royals are a legitimate small market team who have a short window, but they expanded payroll when they were in the window. Only the Astros (who did their own full rebuild prior to them becoming a dynasty), and the Dodgers have been to the World Series more than the Royals in the since 2011.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You could make that argument for the Padres, but the Padres haven't been a free spending organization for more than 5 years. I don't know how San Diego will treat the Padres once they go through some rebuilding phase. We do know they still averaged 40,000 fans during last years disappointment year, and more than the Twins did in their 2023 division winning season when they lost 96 games in 2018. So...I don't know how you can just suggest San Diego fans are only glory chasers? 

And then comparing them to the Phillies, who have been to 3 World Series and another 2 LCS in that span, is just foolish. 

 

The numbers of how the fan numbers drop in San Diego is easily obtainable  that is how you can say there is a drop off when they do not win 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed Paddack isn't a slam dunk, he still has some value. His name has been floated around in trade talks & IMO he is, unlike others mentioned, replaceable. We could possibly find someone just as good & cheaper on the trade market & if they are good at spotting pitchers on waivers.

Of the starting pitcher who pitched at least 50 inning, Paddack was 138th best by ERA, 115th by WAR, and 96th by FIP. No, you might find a more durable pitcher cheaper or off the wavier wire but with the state of starting pitching you are unlikely to find a better one 

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The numbers of how the fan numbers drop in San Diego is easily obtainable  that is how you can say there is a drop off when they do not win 

But we saw them not win last year and there was no real drop off. So...what are you talking about? 

There is such a thing as changing the culture of an organization, changing the market for a club. Similarly, the Twin Cities are, rightfully, done with the cheap Pohalds. They're done with the bitchass billionaires exploiting them for everything they're worth with no respect to the product on the field. A new owner has a chance to come in and make the Twins cool again, like Seidler accomplished with the Padres. 

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, old nurse said:

If other teams had the book on Julien by the end of the year then despite what baseball trade values said, he did not have value

Paddack was paid 2.5 million last  the cheaper replacements of Varland and Mathehews did not pitch better, Festa was about the same. The 2.5 million replacement would come from where? 

Paddack is due $7.5MM, 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Paddack is due $7.5MM, 

Yup. What are you going to sign for 7.5 mil. Who signed last year for less money and pitched no near league average? That is a needle in a haystack and you trust those guys to find one. I think the last GM who traded a in the offseason a quality starting pitcher who was had team control was fired. They has even got an all star in return 

[Linus]

We have a team of oft injured players. We have a team with questions marks at first second third left and maybe right. Castro is hugely valuable to this team.