Moneyball: Recreating Willi Castro in the Aggregate

I keep him.  He deserves the opportunity.  You recognize Severini would be a downgrade.  Castro was arguably the Twins MVP when you consider playng time.  He did get the call to play in All Star Game.  If they choose to sign and trade, I like that idea because his value is high now.  Just don't expect a front line player for him...a solid relief pitcher would be nice (strahm, of Phillies comes to mind).

Does San Diego need a player like Willi Castro? Castro plus $1.2M for Bryan Hoeing? I'm leaning towards an agreement that Castro may be a luxury with a $130M budget, although there is room for him at a $140M roster. Still, agree that some tough decisions will need to be made. I also like the idea of Severino as a Twin.

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success?  It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades.

Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success.

Same as playing the Powerball as a retirement strategy.  Sure, someone somewhere has allegedly accomplished this.  But, far from advisable is an understatement.

If Severino were any good, they’d have found a way to use him by now.

4 minutes ago, Beast said:

Why do we hear about moneyball all the time as if it’s the preeminent recipe for success?  It’s like nobody remembers the movie (and real life) ended with the As winning jack squat and eventually turning into the single most irrelevant team in any professional sport over nearly 3 decades.

Same as many Twins fans grasping onto the Royals popping up for a couple years after 1,000 100 loss seasons and #1 draft picks as the template for success.

Same as playing the Powerball as a retirement strategy.  Sure, someone somewhere has allegedly accomplished this.  But, far from advisable is an understatement.

If Severino were any good, they’d have found a way to use him by now.

The Phillies and Padres have spent freely and won squat 

The Twins will keep him next season.  7 million is not too much of it is expect Paddack to be traded first.

12 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Phillies and Padres have spent freely and won squat 

Phillies won a pennant and Padres have a very good team that is adored by sell out crowds. 

Using these two teams as if they're examples of poorly run clubs is weird. 

He will not be non-tendered.  They will either keep him or trade him, but he not be just let go. 

The idea when you need to right size is to cut fat. But last offseason Falvey's idea is to cut heart & soul, (the chemistry wasn't the same this year) & keep the fat plus add more fat to replace the vital missing parts. Now he wants to continue by cutting muscle while keeping fat. He has grown quite fond of the fat because it's his fat.

FOs like to leak & hype up their ideas via social media. I hate the ideas that are floating around because they are cutting muscle (their value will continue to go up). Trading Castro, Ryan, Lopez, Duran & even Vazquez we are trading away muscle that'll drastically change the Twins' outlook for the worse. Yes, Vazquez is expensive & I'd like a better & cheaper solution but we don't have one. The alternative is disastrous.

What's the fat I'm alluding to? The fat that has been hyped up that their trade value was very high last season but has since become significantly lower & is still dropping, that needs to be traded as soon as possible. One is Ryan Jeffers. He's a good hitting backup catcher who given sufficient rest can hit well & be an average defensive catcher. But when put into a resemblance of primary duties, 1st his defensive crashes & later his hitting wanes. Last offseason he was worth around $35M surplus trade value by BBTV, he's now worth $13M & if Vazquez is traded Jeffers would crash (as before) and be lucky to be worth $5M. A promising. underrated, defensive, MLB-ready young catcher should have been obtained to become our future catcher a long time ago. Jeffers will become a FA in a couple of years & Boras is his agent. As Falvey's hand-picked & only option for primary catcher, we have no option other than signing him to a very outrageous extension for a backup catcher! 

Another is Julien. His future was never at 2B, we had much better options there. His trade value peaked & was comparable to Jeffers & he was not needed & should have been traded to fill in holes. The league has the book out on him & has taken away his HR advantage so he needs to reinvent himself as a contact hitter or be another Sano which he no longer profiles as a 1Bman. He still has retained most of his hyped value, so he has to go before his value tanks. He is one of Falvey's failed-hitting philosophy darlings, who still find it hard to trade but he definitely needs to be sooner the better. Gabriel Gonzales was really hyped & his prospect trade value was high. He'll never make the MLB as a Twin, trade him before his value tanks.

Paddack is one of Falvey's trade mistakes that was extended to somehow justify his actions. This one I do agree with. A lot of. money has been spent to keep him around. We can find a cheaper replacement & he wouldn't be missed. There is some talk about Larnach for a RH counterpart. LH hitters are a premium so I'd hold onto him unless I'm blown away with a deal. Also about Miranda & Kiriloff. I definitely hold onto them because they are great hitters who should finally get a bona fide shot at 1B.

We cannot replace Castro, do you know how hard it is to find a player of his caliber? A lot of have been asked of Martin but to ask him to replace Castro is too much! Martin needs to be broken in easier than what he has been asked to do w/o adding more.  Who'll sub at SS when Correa & Lee are down? Severino has played many positions not because he's flexible & good at them but because he has failed at them & is mainly asked to play 1B. People loved his bat, but I have my doubts that he can achieve what he has before now the pitchers have adjusted. Castro should have been extended last season, Now he'll be more expensive but a lot less than Jeffers.

23 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Phillies won a pennant and Padres have a very good team that is adored by sell out crowds. 

Using these two teams as if they're examples of poorly run clubs is weird. 

I di not say that they were poorly run franchises. That is very poor reading on your part.  The person I responded to said Oakland has won squat during the Billy Bean era. The Phillies and San Diego over the same period have not won as many division championships. The Phillies had a 10 year streak of mediocrity 

7 minutes ago, old nurse said:

I di not say that they were poorly run franchises. That is very poor reading on your part.  The person I responded to said Oakland has won squat during the Billy Bean era. The Phillies and San Diego over the same period have not won as many division championships. The Phillies had a 10 year streak of mediocrity 

Fair. I guess my point is, no one would prefer to be the A's over the Padres or Phillies so it's a weird comparison to draw. 

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The idea when you need to right size is to cut fat. But last offseason Falvey's idea is to cut heart & soul, (the chemistry wasn't the same this year) & keep the fat plus add more fat to replace the vital missing parts. Now he wants to continue by cutting muscle while keeping fat. He has grown quite fond of the fat because it's his fat.

FOs like to leak & hype up their ideas via social media. I hate the ideas that are floating around because they are cutting muscle (their value will continue to go up). Trading Castro, Ryan, Lopez, Duran & even Vazquez we are trading away muscle that'll drastically change the Twins' outlook for the worse. Yes, Vazquez is expensive & I'd like a better & cheaper solution but we don't have one. The alternative is disastrous.

What's the fat I'm alluding to? The fat that has been hyped up that their trade value was very high last season but has since become significantly lower & is still dropping, that needs to be traded as soon as possible. One is Ryan Jeffers. He's a good hitting backup catcher who given sufficient rest can hit well & be an average defensive catcher. But when put into a resemblance of primary duties, 1st his defensive crashes & later his hitting wanes. Last offseason he was worth around $35M surplus trade value by BBTV, he's now worth $13M & if Vazquez is traded he'd crash (as before) be lucky to be worth $5M. A promising. underrated, defensive, MLB ready young catcher should have been obtained to become our future catcher a long time ago. Jeffers will become a FA in a couple of years & Boras is his agent. As Falvey's hand-picked & only option for primary catcher, we have no other than signing him to very outrageous extension for a backup catcher! 

Another is Julien. His future was never at 2B, we had much better options there. His trade value peaked & was comparable to Jeffers & he was not needed & should have been traded to fill in holes. The league has the book out on him & has taken away his HR advantage so he needs to reinvent himself as a contact hitter or be another Sano which he no longer profiles as a 1Bman. He still has retained most of his hyped value, so he has to go before his value tanks. He is one of his failed-hitting philosophy darlings, who still find it hard to trade but he definitely needs to be sooner the better. Gabriel Gonzales was really hyped & his prospect trade value was high. He'll never make the MLB as a Twin, trade him before his value tanks.

Paddack is one of Falvey's trade mistakes that was extended to somehow justify his actions. This one I do agree with. A lot of. money has been spent to keep him around. We can find a cheaper replacement & he wouldn't be missed. There is some talk about Larnach for a RH counterpart. LH hitters are a premium so I'd hold onto him unless I'm blown away with a deal. Also about Miranda & Kiriloff. I definitely hold onto them because they are great hitters who should finally get a bona fide shot at 1B.

We cannot replace Castro, do you know how hard it is to find a player of his caliber? A lot of have been asked of Martin but to asked him replace Castro is too much! Martin needs to be broken in easier than what he has been asked to do w/o adding more.  Who'll sub at SS when Correa & Lee are down? Severino has played many positions not because he's flexible & good at them but because he has failed at them & is mainly asked to play 1B. People loved his bat, but I have my doubts that he can achieve what he has before now the pitchers have adjusted. Castro should have been extended last season, Now he'll be more expensive but lot less than Jeffers.

 

If other teams had the book on Julien by the end of the year then despite what baseball trade values said, he did not have value

Paddack was paid 2.5 million last  the cheaper replacements of Varland and Mathehews did not pitch better, Festa was about the same. The 2.5 million replacement would come from where? 

Tender decision are about excess value. Does Castro provide clear value in excess of his projected contract? I am as confident Castro meets that bar this year as I was last year that Farmer did not.

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Fair. I guess my point is, no one would prefer to be the A's over the Padres or Phillies so it's a weird comparison to draw. 

What is so weird about pointing out that the A’s have cycled up and down over time just as the Padres and Phillies have? The Phillies and the Padres are on up cycles right now, the A’s are on a down cycle.  History will also show that when the Padres are on a down cycle they are not beloved like the Cubs once were

Castro won't be let go for nothing. He has good value to plenty of teams, we should be able to get maybe a good relief pitcher and possibly some salary relief out of him. Problem is, we don't have a solid Castro replacement. Martin can play the OF and 2nd base, but unless he takes a major step forward this year, he's a borderline dfa guy. Maybe Keaschal or Eeles? I'd say they've got the best chance at becoming our utility guy, if they can continue the success they had last year at AAA and immediately produce in the bigs. Will be an interesting off season.

27 minutes ago, old nurse said:

What is so weird about pointing out that the A’s have cycled up and down over time just as the Padres and Phillies have? The Phillies and the Padres are on up cycles right now, the A’s are on a down cycle.  History will also show that when the Padres are on a down cycle they are not beloved like the Cubs once were

You could make that argument for the Padres, but the Padres haven't been a free spending organization for more than 5 years. I don't know how San Diego will treat the Padres once they go through some rebuilding phase. We do know they still averaged 40,000 fans during last years disappointment year, and more than the Twins did in their 2023 division winning season when they lost 96 games in 2018. So...I don't know how you can just suggest San Diego fans are only glory chasers? 

And then comparing them to the Phillies, who have been to 3 World Series and another 2 LCS in that span, is just foolish. 

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

If other teams had the book on Julien by the end of the year then despite what baseball trade values said, he did not have value

Paddack was paid 2.5 million last  the cheaper replacements of Varland and Mathehews did not pitch better, Festa was about the same. The 2.5 million replacement would come from where? 

Agreed Paddack isn't a slam dunk, he still has some value. His name has been floated around in trade talks & IMO he is, unlike others mentioned, replaceable. We could possibly find someone just as good & cheaper on the trade market & if they are good at spotting pitchers on waivers.

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You could make that argument for the Padres, but the Padres haven't been a free spending organization for more than 5 years. I don't know how San Diego will treat the Padres once they go through some rebuilding phase. We do know they still averaged 40,000 fans during last years disappointment year, and more than the Twins did in their 2023 division winning season when they lost 96 games in 2018. So...I don't know how you can just suggest San Diego fans are only glory chasers? 

And then comparing them to the Phillies, who have been to 3 World Series and another 2 LCS in that span, is just foolish. 

 

The numbers of how the fan numbers drop in San Diego is easily obtainable  that is how you can say there is a drop off when they do not win 

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed Paddack isn't a slam dunk, he still has some value. His name has been floated around in trade talks & IMO he is, unlike others mentioned, replaceable. We could possibly find someone just as good & cheaper on the trade market & if they are good at spotting pitchers on waivers.

Of the starting pitcher who pitched at least 50 inning, Paddack was 138th best by ERA, 115th by WAR, and 96th by FIP. No, you might find a more durable pitcher cheaper or off the wavier wire but with the state of starting pitching you are unlikely to find a better one 

21 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The numbers of how the fan numbers drop in San Diego is easily obtainable  that is how you can say there is a drop off when they do not win 

But we saw them not win last year and there was no real drop off. So...what are you talking about? 

There is such a thing as changing the culture of an organization, changing the market for a club. Similarly, the Twin Cities are, rightfully, done with the cheap Pohalds. They're done with the bitchass billionaires exploiting them for everything they're worth with no respect to the product on the field. A new owner has a chance to come in and make the Twins cool again, like Seidler accomplished with the Padres. 

6 hours ago, old nurse said:

If other teams had the book on Julien by the end of the year then despite what baseball trade values said, he did not have value

Paddack was paid 2.5 million last  the cheaper replacements of Varland and Mathehews did not pitch better, Festa was about the same. The 2.5 million replacement would come from where? 

Paddack is due $7.5MM, 

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Paddack is due $7.5MM, 

Yup. What are you going to sign for 7.5 mil. Who signed last year for less money and pitched no near league average? That is a needle in a haystack and you trust those guys to find one. I think the last GM who traded a in the offseason a quality starting pitcher who was had team control was fired. They has even got an all star in return 

We have a team of oft injured players. We have a team with questions marks at first second third left and maybe right. Castro is hugely valuable to this team.