Offseason Predictions?

[thelanges5]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Preilipp should  be that LH RP, following the Liriano path, but won't happen is my prediction.

I’m interested in Prielipp and Canterino in the bullpen mix. 

[Major League Ready]

On 10/4/2024 at 5:56 PM, jctwins said:

This org wants us to believe they are 3-4 players away from contending, but that's highly unlikely.

I am not sure what the organization wants us to believe but many posters have rigorously supported the position that the shortcomings of the Twins were a product of reducing payroll by $30M.  That's certainly not enough to get 3 or 4 players.  It would have gotten them one of the popular choices in Jordan Montgomery or Rhys Hoskins.  The two of them combined for .7 WAR.  You could argue that $30M is worth 3-4 WAR on average.  Of course they got 3 WAR from Santana so that kind of negates that argument.

Parfigliano suggests the organization is delusional if they believe we are 3-4 players away so what should we call it to believe that spending another $30M would have made all the difference?

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Parfigliano suggests the organization is delusional if they believe we are 3-4 players away so what should we call it to believe that spending another $30M would have made all the difference?

Wishful thinking.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure what the organization wants us to believe but many posters have rigorously supported the position that the shortcomings of the Twins were a product of reducing payroll by $30M.  That's certainly not enough to get 3 or 4 players.  It would have gotten them one of the popular choices in Jordan Montgomery or Rhys Hoskins.  The two of them combined for .7 WAR.  You could argue that $30M is worth 3-4 WAR on average.  Of course they got 3 WAR from Santana so that kind of negates that argument.

Parfigliano suggests the organization is delusional if they believe we are 3-4 players away so what should we call it to believe that spending another $30M would have made all the difference?

You can build, by adding one guy last year, and one guy this year. You don't have to fix the team in one year. 

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can build, by adding one guy last year, and one guy this year. You don't have to fix the team in one year. 

That's often how it goes.  I am not sure how that lines up with the assertion the Twins would have been just fine had they spent another $30M.  I think people make a lot of assumptions about how a contender is built.  However, I don't think most people have actually taken examples of successful teams and broken down how the players were acquired to build that team.   As you know, I have broken down every 90 win team in the last 20 years and the assertions here don't match what I have found in general.  

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/5/2024 at 1:31 AM, nicksaviking said:

Have to think Lee, Larnach plus something else would get the Mariners attention regarding their pitching.

I would wholeheartedly support a trade like that one!

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/5/2024 at 1:40 AM, RpR said:

Far, far less change than expected.

...or hoped for. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/5/2024 at 6:22 PM, CRF said:

Ownership and FO will continue to scream poverty...and we make a handful of nothing burger moves. I don't see them doing much of anything, and we get a whole lot of the same middle of the road team next season. 

Sadly, I see that as the most likely scenario. We may sign another ageing veteran for first base, or to stick in the bullpen, but I don't foresee any "wow" moves at all. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/6/2024 at 4:15 AM, thelanges5 said:

I’m interested in Prielipp and Canterino in the bullpen mix. 

If they are both healthy I think that wouldn't be a totally outlandish idea, although I think both will need to spend some time in the minors to start the season. But hey, if the arms are capable of getting batters out, why languish too long in the minors?

[nicksaviking]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can build, by adding one guy last year, and one guy this year. You don't have to fix the team in one year. 

Of course if you're adding one guy and removing a Sonny Gray, you're at best treading water and more likely drowning.

This team just wasn't built to absorb a payroll decrease. I couldn't care less who people want to blame; ownership or the front office. It needed to be continuing to add quality veterans with an escalating. but league average payroll, or a bottom ten payroll but with top end prospect development. If the prospect development is going to take a back seat to signing and playing veterans, the veterans need to be better players. AND if it was prospect development, they needed to be realistic in knowing that that doesn't happen in a year. Or even two years most likely.

They needed to pick a lane but they're all over the road right now.

[Parfigliano]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Of course if you're adding one guy and removing a Sonny Gray, you're at best treading water and more likely drowning.

This team just wasn't built to absorb a payroll decrease. I couldn't care less who people want to blame; ownership or the front office. It needed to be continuing to add quality veterans with an escalating. but league average payroll, or a bottom ten payroll but with top end prospect development. If the prospect development is going to take a back seat to signing and playing veterans, the veterans need to be better players. AND if it was prospect development, they needed to be realistic in knowing that that doesn't happen in a year. Or even two years most likely.

They needed to pick a lane but they're all over the road right now.

"All over the road" is a description.  I'd go with in the ditch.  YMMV.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Of course if you're adding one guy and removing a Sonny Gray, you're at best treading water and more likely drowning.

This team just wasn't built to absorb a payroll decrease. I couldn't care less who people want to blame; ownership or the front office. It needed to be continuing to add quality veterans with an escalating. but league average payroll, or a bottom ten payroll but with top end prospect development. If the prospect development is going to take a back seat to signing and playing veterans, the veterans need to be better players. AND if it was prospect development, they needed to be realistic in knowing that that doesn't happen in a year. Or even two years most likely.

They needed to pick a lane but they're all over the road right now.

Treading water would have been better. 

I think it's obvious that one of two things is true.... The FO isn't all that bright, it the payroll situation changed. 

It's pretty clear, to me, it's the second. 

To your point about picking a lane, I think they have. 85 wins and hope.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Treading water would have been better. 

I think it's obvious that I've if two things is true.... The FO isn't all that bright, it the payroll situation changed. 

It's pretty clear, to me, it's the second. 

To your point about picking a lane, I think they have. 85 wins and hope.

"Like" for the agreement that I also think it's that the payroll situation that changed after the front office picked the first lane.

"Dislike" for the 85 wins and hope. Which looks to be disgustingly accurate at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

"Like" for the agreement that I also think it's that the payroll situation changed after the front office picked the first lane.

"Dislike" for the 85 wins and hope. Which looks to be disgustingly accurate at this point.

Ya, I sometimes want an agree but am not happy about it reaction too.

[Florida Flash]

On 10/4/2024 at 2:12 PM, cmoss84 said:

Buxton, Larnach, Paddock, and Julien get traded...clearing $ and room for our prospects to come up. 

No one is dumb enough to pick up Buxton's salary based on his production. Granted, the Twins brain trust is likely dumb enough to give him a raise though and then whine about not having enough money. Julien & Paddock have little value IMO., but  maybe a change of scenery will help them.

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya, I sometimes want an agree but am not happy about it reaction too.

Seems like the Surley Brewing logo is made for that:

[Craig Arko]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems like the Surley Brewing logo is made for that:

I wonder how they got permission to use Reusse’s likeness for that?

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, Florida Flash said:

No one is dumb enough to pick up Buxton's salary based on his production. Granted, the Twins brain trust is likely dumb enough to give him a raise though and then whine about not having enough money. Julien & Paddock have little value IMO., but  maybe a change of scenery will help them.

$15/year for 4 years isn't that bad. Age 31-34 seasons. I could see a team like the Mets trading for him. 

[TheLeviathan]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can build, by adding one guy last year, and one guy this year. You don't have to fix the team in one year. 

To add to your argument, Last I checked payroll allocations can also come by trade.  Who knows what could've been on the table had they been able to acquire more salary also.  

This FO has clearly shown a willingness to trade aggressively when allowed.

One competent starting pitcher and one competent bullpen option and this team is looking at a run like the Mets.  Or the D-backs.  All you have to do is get in and weird stuff can happen.  (You know...other than those two decades we lost every time!)

[nicksaviking]

55 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

To add to your argument, Last I checked payroll allocations can also come by trade.  Who knows what could've been on the table had they been able to acquire more salary also.  

This FO has clearly shown a willingness to trade aggressively when allowed.

One competent starting pitcher and one competent bullpen option and this team is looking at a run like the Mets.  Or the D-backs.  All you have to do is get in and weird stuff can happen.  (You know...other than those two decades we lost every time!)

Right, that's pretty much how they've gotten every one of their competent pitchers from outside the organization, not free agency. Still need the payroll space to do it though.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

$15/year for 4 years isn't that bad. Age 31-34 seasons. I could see a team like the Mets trading for him. 

NYMs being my team #2 no thanks.

[USAFChief]

On 10/6/2024 at 5:33 AM, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure what the organization wants us to believe but many posters have rigorously supported the position that the shortcomings of the Twins were a product of reducing payroll by $30M.  That's certainly not enough to get 3 or 4 players.  It would have gotten them one of the popular choices in Jordan Montgomery or Rhys Hoskins.  The two of them combined for .7 WAR.  You could argue that $30M is worth 3-4 WAR on average.  Of course they got 3 WAR from Santana so that kind of negates that argument.

Parfigliano suggests the organization is delusional if they believe we are 3-4 players away so what should we call it to believe that spending another $30M would have made all the difference?

Neat trick. Pick 2 FAs who fit your narrative and ignore the rest.

How about $30m for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha? You think KC is in the ALDS without that expense?

Or Blake Snell for $15 in 2024 and three decent relievers instead of loading up on minor league free agents and waiver claims?

 

[farmerguychris]

I predict we will become a stars and scrubs lineup based around what contracts we can move.

I expect to have Buxton and Correa continue to be part of the team based solely on their no-trade clauses.  Pablo has no such clause (that I am aware of), so he's traded for 2 pitchers with 'future potential', Lewis will be also traded for playes currently in AA as they continue to try and be the Rays by trading players just as they hit their prime, and more importantly - get good sized payroll increases.  

I predict they will keep Vazquez simply because they will refuse to pay any of his salary to get rid of him.  

Lastly, I predict many of our impending arbitration players will find themselves playing elsewhere next season.

I anticipate the owners trying to make up some of the 'losses' they had the past 2 years and the best way to save is to cut payroll everywhere they can.  It doesn't matter if they win, as long as they make money.

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Neat trick. Pick 2 FAs who fit your narrative and ignore the rest.

How about $30m for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha? You think KC is in the ALDS without that expense?

Or Blake Snell for $15 in 2024 and three decent relievers instead of loading up on minor league free agents and waiver claims?

 

I stated they were the most popular choices.  The majority were quite vocal about not bothering with signing someone like Wacha or Lugo.   I didn't say there were not options that would have helped but those options were not the players that were insisted upon here.  Most wanted a "big name" and Montgomery was the most popular.  No matter how you slice it or dice it.  $30M in free agency is worth on average less than 4 WAR and they got 3 from Santana so the premise spending an additional $30M in spending was the difference between failure and success is a huge stretch.   Even if they would have signed Lugo, he would not have made up for their horrible hitting, base running, and defensive lapses.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I stated they were the most popular choices.  The majority were quite vocal about not bothering with signing someone like Wacha or Lugo.   I didn't say there were not options that would have helped but those options were not the players that were insisted upon here.  Most wanted a "big name" and Montgomery was the most popular. 

Gonna need to see your research supporting both these claims.

 

[Craig Arko]

On 10/4/2024 at 2:27 PM, Craig Arko said:

I predict unless Manfred and MLB corporate pick up the ball the TV situation will remain unresolved when Spring training begins.

So there.

I didn’t actually think they’d act this quickly. 

[stringer bell]

My prediction is that at least one of the Twins' free agents everyone considers gone--all but Santana--will return to the team and make the Opening Day roster. In order of likelihood--1) Thielbar 2) Farmer 3) Desclafani 4) Kepler 5) Margot.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

My prediction is that at least one of the Twins' free agents everyone considers gone--all but Santana--will return to the team and make the Opening Day roster. In order of likelihood--1) Thielbar 2) Farmer 3) Desclafani 4) Kepler 5) Margot.

VERY interesting.

Julien will be gone or stuck in AAA with the failed Lee, Martin experiment.

 

[ziggy]

my prediction is they double down on their development hopeful prospects. All of whom need more work to be a MLB player.  

Julien, it's hard to believe he played 2nd in college. Maybe a smaller cap would help with his hitting. He is lost at the plate.

Lee, isn't up to MLB speed yet. TK always talked about the speed of the game. Needs a defensive home. And a smaller helmet.

Lewis, needs a defensive home and become slump proof. Needs to quit lunging and swinging for the fences.

Martin, needs to square up the ball. I don't care if he hits singles but the hits sound like he got jammed every time. Needs a defensive home.

Miranda, needs a defensive home and stay healthy.

Wallner, not sure if he can improve his defense and cut down on the strikeouts but I think he is easily a 30 plus homer guy if he plays everyday. Leave him in right field.