Intro to Twins Payroll 2025: Twins Will Need to Increase Payroll (or Dump More Core Players)

[EGFTShaw]

I'm answering this as I would do if I was DF, not as I think will happen.

First I'd go back to JoeP and push very hard to get back to 2023 levels minimum.  The selling point, aside for increased fan attendance, is the viewing rights deal.  These rights were at a high after the 2023 seasons, but by trimming payroll, JoeP gambled and devalued these rights.

So as the master salesman that I am, I convinced JoeP to spend $165M; the $10M our current team was going to cost + the $155M of the 2023 team. Based on this report above of it costing $132M to keep status quo and not including the expiring contracts, I have $33M to spend.

First I would look at Carlos Santana on a 1-2 year deal.  Good glove, good bat, good teammate.

Starting Pitchers:
I know a lot of people are not enamored with our staff, but I think we have a good core.  But was is lacking is the shutdown starter.  The guy that will stop a losing streak.  We contenders but no one has stepped up.

But the good.
Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and SWR. All made good to excellent steps forward.

The potentially good:
Festa/Matthews:  Easily good 4-5 starters with potential to be better.  

Coming:
Marco Raya, Corey Lewis and Andrew Morris.

The Inconsistent:
Pablo: when he is dealing, he is at an Ace level.  The issue is this is not consistent enough over the season.  He can't have so slow starts.  Mediocre starts OK, but then you hit your stride and it lasts the year.

Relievers:
Good: Sands, Jax and Duran
The rest: Meh.  I mean Acala and Vaarland as full time reliever, but no one else who finished the season is worth much.

Stewart has to come back from injury
Topa barely pitched so is really also an return from injury
Dobnak is same boat.

With $33M I am not signing at FA Ace.
But can I get a solid #2 with upside?

How much will I need to spend to keep Carols "Guitar" Santana?

I'll go into a complete plan during this offseason. 

Basically this is really just to address what I think the owners HAVE to do and that we have a good core of pitchers, lacking the a True Shutdown Ace, and the Twins are almost never in this position.

Remember Ryan will be in is 4th season?  Ober as well?  Festa/Matthews their first and SWR his 2nd.

Also, Buxton, C4, Royce and Paddock are going to under go a comprehensive exercise regimen to focus on their problem areas.

Losing Bux, C4 and RL as much as we did is virtually unacceptable.  It may be a change in playing habits, or treatments, or workout routine.  They all need to be around 80% of the games minimum; 130 games.

Coaches will be designated to different players specifically to work during the offseason on hitting, fielding, pitching all with the goal to improve each facet of their games.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

But there are only 25 roster positions.  Having one (Castro) cover several positions vs rostering three to cover the same number of positions is not efficient.

Actually, there are 26 spots. I get your point but Castro can play one spot at a time, so, 2 of the 3 guys I suggested can displace him, his versatility, are going to be on the roster anyway.

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Jax projected at 2MM in arb and Ober/Ryan projected at 4MM in arb.  No wonder Jax wants to move to a starting role.

I noticed Jax $$ value that’s assumed as well ……….can’t imagine how he’s not worth at least as much, if not more than Duran? I’ve seen a couple places now that Duran will get $3M. Doesn’t add up to me………..on another note, Jax stuff doesn’t play over multiple innings because his success now is ALL OUT for 3-5, outs, maximum…..,hope he doesn’t have angst staying a reliever!

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

I'm answering this as I would do if I was DF, not as I think will happen.

First I'd go back to JoeP and push very hard to get back to 2023 levels minimum.  The selling point, aside for increased fan attendance, is the viewing rights deal.  These rights were at a high after the 2023 seasons, but by trimming payroll, JoeP gambled and devalued these rights.

So as the master salesman that I am, I convinced JoeP to spend $165M; the $10M our current team was going to cost + the $155M of the 2023 team. Based on this report above of it costing $132M to keep status quo and not including the expiring contracts, I have $33M to spend.

First I would look at Carlos Santana on a 1-2 year deal.  Good glove, good bat, good teammate.

Starting Pitchers:
I know a lot of people are not enamored with our staff, but I think we have a good core.  But was is lacking is the shutdown starter.  The guy that will stop a losing streak.  We contenders but no one has stepped up.

But the good.
Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and SWR. All made good to excellent steps forward.

The potentially good:
Festa/Matthews:  Easily good 4-5 starters with potential to be better.  

Coming:
Marco Raya, Corey Lewis and Andrew Morris.

The Inconsistent:
Pablo: when he is dealing, he is at an Ace level.  The issue is this is not consistent enough over the season.  He can't have so slow starts.  Mediocre starts OK, but then you hit your stride and it lasts the year.

Relievers:
Good: Sands, Jax and Duran
The rest: Meh.  I mean Acala and Vaarland as full time reliever, but no one else who finished the season is worth much.

Stewart has to come back from injury
Topa barely pitched so is really also an return from injury
Dobnak is same boat.

With $33M I am not signing at FA Ace.
But can I get a solid #2 with upside?

How much will I need to spend to keep Carols "Guitar" Santana?

I'll go into a complete plan during this offseason. 

Basically this is really just to address what I think the owners HAVE to do and that we have a good core of pitchers, lacking the a True Shutdown Ace, and the Twins are almost never in this position.

Remember Ryan will be in is 4th season?  Ober as well?  Festa/Matthews their first and SWR his 2nd.

Also, Buxton, C4, Royce and Paddock are going to under go a comprehensive exercise regimen to focus on their problem areas.

Losing Bux, C4 and RL as much as we did is virtually unacceptable.  It may be a change in playing habits, or treatments, or workout routine.  They all need to be around 80% of the games minimum; 130 games.

Coaches will be designated to different players specifically to work during the offseason on hitting, fielding, pitching all with the goal to improve each facet of their games.

 

Whole bunch of differing or alternative thoughts. Will wait for the Complete Plan coming later. First thought though is the budget will not pass $140M and I think that’s very rich based on comments to date from ownership. You or DF may be selling but I don’t see Pohlad’s buying. Your $165M needs to be tempered, IMO, before any real potential plan is out together.

[Craig Arko]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Whole bunch of differing or alternative thoughts. Will wait for the Complete Plan coming later. First thought though is the budget will not pass $140M and I think that’s very rich based on comments to date from ownership. You or DF may be selling but I don’t see Pohlad’s buying. Your $165M needs to be tempered, IMO, before any real potential plan is out together.

All of which depends on the frikken TV contract. So, more limbo.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Haven’t given next year’s roster a bunch of thought - will try to enjoy playoff baseball for a month………..in reality, $$ Twins will spend is complete guess work at this point.

Again, maybe more emotional than rational? To me, Paddack is a decent value for many MLB Clubs…….probably not for the Twins. I can’t see how Festa isn’t one of the Top 5 starters going into ‘25. I would love to have Paddack as part of the Twin’s Pen in ‘25…..he and Varland combined make Stewart a real luxury! Paddack to the Pen v. signing a “real experienced reliever” seems to be better than a push for the Twins. We’ll see - $7.5M

Castro can play a bunch of positions and is competent at nearly all 5 of them. Most AB’s on the Team and offensive production that is/was OK (.247 BA - same as career average …..with 12 HR….102 OPS+) at best in the end. A combination of Lee - Kiersey - Martin cover essentially everything Castro provides. But not Lee has less speed. Not pushing Willi out the door but - $5.5M.

Jeffers, (haven’t looked at associated Catcher Defense thread) to me, just isn’t cutting it 70% of his games behind the plate. His offense completely tanked after May. A “probable All-star” at beginning of June & ended up hitting 2.5 HR/month the last 4 months. 103 OPS+ at season’s end. With 2.1 WAR, he’s affordable at his salary but another guy that brings better defense for $2M may make more sense - doubtful, but worth considering. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear Twins have any reasonable depth in the system - Camargo looked brutal at the plate in his handful of opportunities this year. I assume there would be interest but is Jeffers worth moving - $4.5M.

This is $17.5M……if payroll is increased a modest 5% ($6M) ………potentially could have $23.5M to spend, less Kiersey & Festa at $.8M each. Need a catcher in this scenario…..,maybe Jeffers is the guy at $4.5M?

Somebody of $$ value has to replace Julien in the DH slot above.

Santana in ‘25, batting 8 or 9 along with his defense, is a serious option. He did lead Team in HR & RBI. Gotta ease somebody else into 40-70 starts at 1B as the future……..not sure that Miranda’s body holds up playing 1B everyday. Maybe 40 starts there and 40 starts at 3B for Jose?

I think you've identified the obvious trade candidates here - Paddack and Castro. Vasquez isn't worth his salary, and we have no backup catcher if we trade him away. They aren't going to trade young pitching. I could see another team taking a chance on Paddock at $7.5m, particularly since the price is likely to be 1 or 2 solid but not prime Minor League players at least a year or two away. He is replaceable by combination of Festa and/or Mathews, most likely Festa. I actually still hold out hope that they are going to talk to Miami about trading for Jesus Luzardo who is still in the arbitration phase. The price will likely be high in terms of prospects, maybe Miranda plus Keaschall. My guess is that they are at least thinking about if not already working on some kind of deals involving Paddack going and/or Luzardo or someone like him coming.. 

 Castro is a tougher call. He is valuable, but really only because of his versatility. He is a very average bat, doesn't have a high OPS because he strikes out too much and walks too little, and his defense is more in the range of solid then very good or elite at any position. He can be replaced at second base by Lee, Miranda, Julian, Keaschall or a combination thereof. He is not a true backup CF and our starting corner OFs next year are likely to be Wallner, Larnach, plus either Martin or a very cheap FA.  I would not be surprised at all to see the Twins trade him, again for one or two solid prospects who are at least a year or two away from appearing at the MLB level. There isn't much else they can do other than that to bring down payroll and that probably doesn't significantly improve the team.

I do expect a pretty quiet off-season. John may only be talking payroll, but I think his napkin properly identifies next year's Opening Day roster except I think Dobnak is a starter in AAA again with Alcala in the bullpen in his place, and the TBD on the bench is Keirsey as a backup CF. If we trade either Paddack or Castro, the replacement will be a guy like Festa or Matthews on the pitching staff for Paddack, and Payton Eeles or Keaschall in an IF utility/part-time 2B role for Castro. I think were looking at a pretty lukewarm stove indeed this winter.

[EGFTShaw]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Whole bunch of differing or alternative thoughts. Will wait for the Complete Plan coming later. First thought though is the budget will not pass $140M and I think that’s very rich based on comments to date from ownership. You or DF may be selling but I don’t see Pohlad’s buying. Your $165M needs to be tempered, IMO, before any real potential plan is out together.

Don't disagree on JoeP at all.  In fact I'd be surprised at $140M based on history.

But, I am living in a fantasy world. 😁

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Thanks for putting the numbers together John. Once again, the Twins won’t be able to look at free agency to fill needs beyond the ST invite type players. 

No trade clauses can be waived by the player… So does Correa want to be here knowing he will take up 25-30% of the payroll? Does Royce Lewis want to be here for the long term? Judging by his recent comments I doubt it. Lots of tough decisions to be made this offseason. 

Lewis sure doesn't sound like the leader we were promised, and certainly like he doesn't want to be here. 

I predict Lopez to either Boston or Baltimore. And they work hard to deal CC, but don't. Paddock goes with a good prospect for a lesser prospect.

[thelanges5]

Dobnak is a sunk cost and in the last year of his 5yr deal. His $3mil will be paid whether he is in Mpls or StP next year. 

[Jeff K]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Thanks for putting the numbers together John. Once again, the Twins won’t be able to look at free agency to fill needs beyond the ST invite type players. 

No trade clauses can be waived by the player… So does Correa want to be here knowing he will take up 25-30% of the payroll? Does Royce Lewis want to be here for the long term? Judging by his recent comments I doubt it. Lots of tough decisions to be made this offseason. 

Royce Lewis situation is especially concerning.  He really appeared to lose interest.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Jeff K said:

Royce Lewis situation is especially concerning.  He really appeared to lose interest.

I'm definitely worried about his attitude. Which I rarely say about professional athletes 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Jax projected at 2MM in arb and Ober/Ryan projected at 4MM in arb.  No wonder Jax wants to move to a starting role.

 

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I noticed Jax $$ value that’s assumed as well ……….can’t imagine how he’s not worth at least as much, if not more than Duran? I’ve seen a couple places now that Duran will get $3M. Doesn’t add up to me………..on another note, Jax stuff doesn’t play over multiple innings because his success now is ALL OUT for 3-5, outs, maximum…..,hope he doesn’t have angst staying a reliever!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/

Fangraphs' study/model would put Jax at $4.5MM for year 1 arbitration. Duran is probably about right, but everything seems to be shifting around a bit. Closers have typically done better.

[chpettit19]

This is going to be one interesting offseason. I have no real guess on what direction they're going to go.

No trade clauses are waived all the time. If the Twins really want to move Correa and/or Buxton it very well may be possible. But that's one massive change in direction.

The Twins have loved their short-term, 5-10 mil in salary vets. It's been a staple of their team building. From the looks of it they aren't going to be able to sign any, and may not even be able to keep the few they have (Castro, Vazquez, and Paddack). 

From the outside it looks like they're either going to have to work to move one, or more, of the 4 "big" contracts they have or they're going to have to rely on young guys. I don't think they expected the decrease in payroll so I can't fully blame them for this apparent mess. I think they expected to be in the 145-160 range for the length of the Correa, Buxton, Lopez deals. Now it looks like they'll be in the 120-130 range instead. Can't totally fault them if that's the case. But they're in a bind now and may be forced to rely on youth from the jump, which has never been something they've wanted to do. Will be fascinating to see how they try to work things.

On a business side note, an offseason of basically no moves is really going to make it hard for them to drive season ticket, and early season ticket, sales after the disaster that was last offseason followed by the disaster of an end to this season, and this disaster of a PR start to this offseason. Who would've guessed "right-sizing" your business directly after winning your first playoff series in 2 decades was going to lead to bad attendance rates and a challenging path forward? Apparently not Joe Pohlad. Or Dave St Pete and his life-time contract. But here we are.

[bean5302]

45 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Royce Lewis situation is especially concerning.  He really appeared to lose interest.

44 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm definitely worried about his attitude. Which I rarely say about professional athletes 

When you take a face of the franchise and push them off their position, and their dream position which they've been told they were next in line for (SS in Lewis' case) to play a rookie who can't field or hit, there's a lot of potential to see a major shift in interest.

If you were promised a promotion or position at work, and instead your boss brought in a new employee and shifted you to a position you didn't like, a position viewed as less valuable, to accommodate the new person, how would your commitment be impacted?

Honestly, I'm not terribly concerned with Lewis right now as a person, but I am a bit concerned with him as a Twins player given how things went down and the fact the incompetent owners brought back the incompetent front office and management.

[ashbury]

Baseball-reference.com lists Twins 2024 payroll at $135.76M.

Depending on how all the pieces are counted, maybe there's room?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-misc.shtml

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

Losing Bux, C4 and RL as much as we did is virtually unacceptable.  It may be a change in playing habits, or treatments, or workout routine.  They all need to be around 80% of the games minimum; 130 games.

If you're expecting Buxton to play 130 games next year I guarantee you will be disappointed.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Royce Lewis situation is especially concerning.  He really appeared to lose interest.

He has elite talent and was bad on both sides of the ball. The coaching staff absolutely needs to maximize his talent if this team is going to be successful.

[Rhyno006]

Egad, that's a lot of arbitration eligible guys for one year isn't it? Regardless, that makes it seem like even a hold at the current salary levels will force the FO to move on from some players. I'd really like to see them keep the core pitching staff intact if able, but worry they'll get rid of the higher end guys like Ryan, Ober, Sands, Duran etc. Hopefully that's just the bad taste of this season still in my mouth. 

Feels like it's going to get ugly before it gets better.  

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Yes indeed here we go again.  Their announcement about not further reducing payroll rings hollow.   I would n I t be at all surprised to see them at least try to move Lopez.  Also Correa and Buxton have no trade clauses but those things have been bought out in the past to move a player.  I don't think Buxton is going anywhere.  Why would any team want to pay an undependable part time player 15 million per year.  Correa?  Very good player but there's questions about him as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if he asks to get out.  There will probably be several changes in personnel most of them will be deleting high salary.

My thoughts to , while reading the article  , Correa has seen the twins flop twice now , 2022 and this year ...

He just might opt out of his no trade clause  , he's a normal human being and wants to win , just like everyone else  .. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Baseball-reference.com lists Twins 2024 payroll at $135.76M.

Depending on how all the pieces are counted, maybe there's room?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-misc.shtml

Yes. That figure is closer to what I was remembering than the $122M in the OP. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

There's another option that I haven't seen anyone mention. There's a one-year spike in Correa's salary. That it comes in year 3 of a six-year deal suggests that they had some creative conversation to create an uneven pay flow*. He also wants to win. How about going Bobby Bonilla on him and working with Mr. Boras to create a mutually beneficial deferred compensation package that gives Correa the same value in today's dollars in exchange for taking just $25M of that money this year? Or something of that nature.

 

*Or maybe Correa's Adjustable Rate Mortgage has a balloon payment coming due in 2025? Okay, probably not.  

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm definitely worried about his attitude. Which I rarely say about professional athletes 

I'm not going to spend any time worrying about this sort of thing. 

The team collapsed and now we have players in their 20's trying to explain, process, deal with it in the public eye. 

Some fingers got pointed which isn't surprising since both Correa and Lewis tend to speak a little more free than they probably should and the collapse was... well... enormous. 

Could you imagine being asked to explain what happened to the press... a collapse that was off the charts in size while the press is going to reduce whatever you say to a soundbite.

I don't know for answer to the question won't suffice and a soundbite isn't going to cover it.    

  

 

[Rufus]

Ownership and the front office has to bite the bullet and  write off at least part of the Correa contract .as a mistake or they will strangle the franchise for the next four years.  The Twins can't afford to have nearly a quarter of its patroll tied up on one player for 4 more years.  As the young players develop they are going to need to be signed for more money and if the payroll is kept at current levels there will be no money to do that.  

[roger]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sure, Buxton & Correa are key pieces! However, they played pretty well over the last couple weeks they were back and still very few runs & very few wins. Wallner went down late - didn’t help. The issue is the rest of the gang……Miranda - Jeffers - Lee - Julien - Lewis - Castro, they all produced very little over either a few months or at a minimum, the last few weeks. One night Team had 7 hits from top 3 guys in line-up (Buxton - Larnach - Correa) and ZERO from the remaining 6 guys……Lewis got a PH. That lack of contribution from “the cast” is what is of concern to me, not Buxton & Correa’s salary nor their performance.

As usual, JD, I wasn't clear with what I was thinking.  My comment was that if CC4 and Buxton are good the Twins can be good.  The key word there was, 'can.'  What I was thinking is that if they are good and just a few of those young kids have a good season, the Twins will be competitive.

[bean5302]

Paddack does not have trade value. The Twins might be able to move him as part of a trade if they kick in 1/2 his salary like the Mariners did with Desclafani. Adding up Paddack's typical SSS's over his 3 years with the Twins, you've got a pitcher with a 4.82 ERA with only 1 good season as a starter in his career (rookie 2019). No MLB team looking to compete for a playoff position would trust Paddack with a rotation spot, and no team would pay $7.5MM for MiLB emergency depth when you can get those guys on MiLB contracts. Paddack would be awfully lucky to secure more than a MiLB contract with an opt out right now.

Vazquez is bad, but the Twins could move him if they ate half his salary. The problem is the team has nobody to replace him in the system, and a free agent catcher who is going to be better than Vazquez for significantly less than $5MM in savings we'd have is going to be picked from a pretty small potential pool.

Correa has the NTC, and sure, maybe he'd waive it. Great. What team would want him? How many teams would be willing to take on 4yrs $135MM guaranteed remaining, plus the 4 potential vesting options after that? How many teams could afford that and need a SS? Here are the teams who got less than 2.5 WAR from their shortstops this year.
Pirates, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Rays, White Sox, Braves, Athletics, Marlins, Guardians, Tigers. Easy to eliminate the Pirates, Rays, Athletics, Guardians as the low budget teams. Easy to eliminate the White Sox and Marlins since they're terrible and probably not going to compete soon. 4 left.
1. Diamondbacks are trying to tie up guys like Gallen and looking for pitching. Perdomo (2.0 WAR) was adequate and just 24 years old. No need for Correa, probably not a lot of payroll flexibility for him, either.
2. Nationals - This could be a fit if the Nationals are ready to go all-in, but that feels like a stretch.
3. Braves - They don't have the payroll capacity. They've already been struggling with their commitments.
4. Tigers - Not with Baez still on the books, and they're not bailing the Twins out in the division.

Basically, there is 1 potential trade partner, IMHO. That's the Washington Nationals, and that's only if the Nationals are going all-in, and if they are willing to blow the doors off the budget with Correa vs. a much less payroll risky signing like Willy Adams or Ha-Seong Kim. Considering Correa's massive negative trade value, I don't see this happening.

Buxton - NTC is not getting waived, the Twins have nobody behind him who can cover CF, and I'm not sure how many teams would be interested in 80 games from Buxton.

Lopez wouldn't do much more than just clear payroll since he's a 3-4 win pitcher with a salary in line with his production and a 3 year contract. I think the Twins could move him, but they won't get much back, and then they'll be short their "ace."

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Paddack does not have trade value. The Twins might be able to move him as part of a trade if they kick in 1/2 his salary like the Mariners did with Desclafani.

I think they could get an equally effective reliever who makes half as much in return for Paddack. That frees up enough cash to bring back Carlos Santana.

[rationalfan]

So, this will likely be an unpopular thought since it's currently pitchfork carrying time, but...

The FO knew that there were going to be pay increases for key players (those considered part of the future) due to Pablo's raise and many players hitting arbitration eligibility at the same time.  Not desirable, but here we are.  Knowing that impacted decisions this year (the only player they are obligated to pay this year is Topa and they will gladly gamble ~1.5M on him).  This leads to "no further cuts" but it also means there won't be any significant Hot Stove action either.  I don't believe they ever said this year will necessarily need to be the same payroll as last year, merely that last year's right-sizing was significantly lower than 2023.  That being said, my calculations have 2025 only about 5% higher than 2024 - perhaps Margot's $4M (the amount the Twins had to pay) in 2024 was not included and also guys like Okert and Staumont were opening day payroll guys but were later DFA'd and they might not have been included.

This doesn't ease the mind of anyone who thinks we need to go higher, e.g. $150M, but challenges the assumption that there will be more players cut.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

This is going to be one interesting offseason. I have no real guess on what direction they're going to go.

No trade clauses are waived all the time. If the Twins really want to move Correa and/or Buxton it very well may be possible. But that's one massive change in direction.

The Twins have loved their short-term, 5-10 mil in salary vets. It's been a staple of their team building. From the looks of it they aren't going to be able to sign any, and may not even be able to keep the few they have (Castro, Vazquez, and Paddack). 

From the outside it looks like they're either going to have to work to move one, or more, of the 4 "big" contracts they have or they're going to have to rely on young guys. I don't think they expected the decrease in payroll so I can't fully blame them for this apparent mess. I think they expected to be in the 145-160 range for the length of the Correa, Buxton, Lopez deals. Now it looks like they'll be in the 120-130 range instead. Can't totally fault them if that's the case. But they're in a bind now and may be forced to rely on youth from the jump, which has never been something they've wanted to do. Will be fascinating to see how they try to work things.

On a business side note, an offseason of basically no moves is really going to make it hard for them to drive season ticket, and early season ticket, sales after the disaster that was last offseason followed by the disaster of an end to this season, and this disaster of a PR start to this offseason. Who would've guessed "right-sizing" your business directly after winning your first playoff series in 2 decades was going to lead to bad attendance rates and a challenging path forward? Apparently not Joe Pohlad. Or Dave St Pete and his life-time contract. But here we are.

I saw that two of the Twins hitting coaches have been let go (Popkins) or are likely to be reassigned to the minors (Shomon) if not let go. I do expect a shakeup on the pitching side as well.

The biggest shakeup the Twins could and should do to improve quality of the business is a complete shakeup of the marketing and operations staff. I live in LA so maybe the marketing is better than what I read here, but it sure sounds like the Twins are stuck in the 1970s or 1980s where all you were selling was a baseball game, not an entertainment experience. People now want more. You need to have more giveaways, bobble head nights, after game concerts, group promotions, free or heavily discounted tickets to schools to fill up the bleachers, etc. You can either drive attendance by having an elite team, something no one really seems to be able to do year after year other than the Dodgers and the Yankees, or you can make the ballpark an entertainment experience that people want to have which also includes a baseball game. That's what the Twins need to create and I just don't think Dave St. Peter is the guy who can do that.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I saw that two of the Twins hitting coaches have been let go (Popkins) or are likely to be reassigned to the minors (Shomon) if not let go. I do expect a shakeup on the pitching side as well.

The biggest shakeup the Twins could and should do to improve quality of the business is a complete shakeup of the marketing and operations staff. I live in LA so maybe the marketing is better than what I read here, but it sure sounds like the Twins are stuck in the 1970s or 1980s where all you were selling was a baseball game, not an entertainment experience. People now want more. You need to have more giveaways, bobble head nights, after game concerts, group promotions, free or heavily discounted tickets to schools to fill up the bleachers, etc. You can either drive attendance by having an elite team, something no one really seems to be able to do year after year other than the Dodgers and the Yankees, or you can make the ballpark an entertainment experience that people want to have which also includes a baseball game. That's what the Twins need to create and I just don't think Dave St. Peter is the guy who can do that.

It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff shakes out. Feels like a bit of a cop out to me, but it really isn't surprising to see them making some moves. The offense was elite for most of the season so it's interesting they'd remove that segment of the coaching staff over "6 bad weeks" but won't make changes to those above them over "6 bad weeks." Not saying it's the wrong decision, just an interesting look at their decision making.

I fully agree there seems to be nothing from an outside perspective to make me believe Dave St Peter is the answer on the business side of things. The more I see how Joe is running things the more I think St Peter is still employed because the rest of the family wants him there as a security blanket for the new Pohlad in charge. They trust him to at least not let little Joe tank the entire thing. But St Peter has dropped the ball left and right. Really mind blowing to me that he's still in charge. Their business decisions seem to be getting worse and worse. Do they even have a PR department? How are these guys out there putting their foot in their mouth time after time? If they do have a PR department they need to fire them because it's just a waste of money at this point. The people at the top don't seem to have any real idea how to bring the business side of the Twins into the current media and entertainment marketplace. They've modernized the baseball side with the hiring of young(ish) execs. It feels like it's beyond time to do that on the business side.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think you've identified the obvious trade candidates here - Paddack and Castro. Vasquez isn't worth his salary, and we have no backup catcher if we trade him away. They aren't going to trade young pitching. I could see another team taking a chance on Paddock at $7.5m, particularly since the price is likely to be 1 or 2 solid but not prime Minor League players at least a year or two away. He is replaceable by combination of Festa and/or Mathews, most likely Festa. I actually still hold out hope that they are going to talk to Miami about trading for Jesus Luzardo who is still in the arbitration phase. The price will likely be high in terms of prospects, maybe Miranda plus Keaschall. My guess is that they are at least thinking about if not already working on some kind of deals involving Paddack going and/or Luzardo or someone like him coming.. 

 Castro is a tougher call. He is valuable, but really only because of his versatility. He is a very average bat, doesn't have a high OPS because he strikes out too much and walks too little, and his defense is more in the range of solid then very good or elite at any position. He can be replaced at second base by Lee, Miranda, Julian, Keaschall or a combination thereof. He is not a true backup CF and our starting corner OFs next year are likely to be Wallner, Larnach, plus either Martin or a very cheap FA.  I would not be surprised at all to see the Twins trade him, again for one or two solid prospects who are at least a year or two away from appearing at the MLB level. There isn't much else they can do other than that to bring down payroll and that probably doesn't significantly improve the team.

I do expect a pretty quiet off-season. John may only be talking payroll, but I think his napkin properly identifies next year's Opening Day roster except I think Dobnak is a starter in AAA again with Alcala in the bullpen in his place, and the TBD on the bench is Keirsey as a backup CF. If we trade either Paddack or Castro, the replacement will be a guy like Festa or Matthews on the pitching staff for Paddack, and Payton Eeles or Keaschall in an IF utility/part-time 2B role for Castro. I think we’re looking at a pretty lukewarm stove indeed this winter.

Dobnack is shown not because anyone thinks he’ll be on opening day roster nor “any day roster” hopefully, his salary of $3M is committed as part of the ‘25 budget spend.

I think Raya may be available as long relief by August. He had at least one good 5 inning start late in St. Paul.

Keeping Paddack for Pen and lining him up as 6th-8th inning guy with Sands & Varland sounds really good to me. This lets Stewart & Topa be spot guys 5th-7th innings. Jax & Duran cleaning up late! ………Henriquez - Funderburk - Winder - Headrick - Blewett all in the mix for the 8th spot. Maybe Canterino & Prielipp will surprise us all and be able to pitch in ‘25?

Festa - Lopez - Ryan - Ober - SWR works for me ….. Zebulon gets some time to refine for a few months.

I think any spending has to be on BATS!!!