Rocco Baldelli Knowingly Put His Head On the Chopping Block to Wake Up His Team. What If It Doesn't Work?

[LA Vikes Fan]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I look at this roster, and I see like four or five at most legit MLB hitters that I have confidence in, and somehow it's the managers fault they can't hit. 

The injuries and Julien and Lewis forgetting how to pay are killing them. 

I would add that there are at least 2 players playing out of position most games - whoever is playing SS and whoever is playing CF. The proposed backups for those positions were busts defensively - Farmer lost his range and Margot may never have had the range. Lee and Castro are not MLB level shortstops; Castro and Martin are not MLB level in CF (too early to know on Keirsey).  A big part of why the defense is poor is because those two positions are not well manned. 

The Twins problem is that with the injuries they now have about 2/3 of a team if everything clicks - 4-5 guys that can hit, 2.5-3 starters, leaky up the middle defense, and about half a bullpen. That's if the players you have actually perform. When some of those guys don't - like Lewis and Julien in the lineup, SWR recently in the rotation, Alcala and Duran in the bullpen - there's no one who has any chance of steeping up to cover. While I think there's a lot to criticize about Baldelli, it's hard to see how anyone could do much more with what this team has right now. We've just run out of MLB level players. 

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This isn't a Rocco problem, it's a front office problem.

How about both?

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I would add that there are at least 2 players playing out of position most games - whoever is playing SS and whoever is playing CF. The proposed backups for those positions were busts defensively - Farmer lost his range and Margot may never have had the range. Lee and Castro are not MLB level shortstops; Castro and Martin are not MLB level in CF (too early to know on Keirsey).  A big part of why the defense is poor is because those two positions are not well manned. 

The Twins problem is that with the injuries they now have about 2/3 of a team if everything clicks - 4-5 guys that can hit, 2.5-3 starters, leaky up the middle defense, and about half a bullpen. That's if the players you have actually perform. When some of those guys don't - like Lewis and Julien in the lineup, SWR recently in the rotation, Alcala and Duran in the bullpen - there's no one who has any chance of steeping up to cover. While I think there's a lot to criticize about Baldelli, it's hard to see how anyone could do much more with what this team has right now. We've just run out of MLB level players. 

The Farmer decision looks worse every day. Lee might, might, be a SS someday, but he's not hitting at all right now. Jeffers, Wallner, Larnach and Santana and ? And Jeffers is only allowed to catch every other game. 

 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

How about both?

Yes. But my bigger concern is killing the problem at the roots (probably the Pohlads but that's a discussion for another day), and not just one of the branches. I don't like a number of their strategies, and don't think they can win a World Series following them. But if you keep the guys truly driving the strategies around while just making Rocco the sacrificial lamb it doesn't solve anything. 

My stance is that whoever is currently in charge of the development of hitters and pitchers (not fielding) can stick around and continue to run that. The rest I'm ready to move on from. I'll even sacrifice the person running the hitting and pitching development if it means never having to see them roster another short-side platoon bat with no speed and limited defensive skill again.

[Fezig]

I'm ready for a new front office and manager. One that let's pitchers pitch beyond 7 innings and 83 pitches. 

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Would it surprise you to know that "quality win %" is, as of today, 2 games under .500 since 2020?

Rocco's team won over 100 games in 2019. He gets credit for that. But he did inherent a team that set the MLB record for HRs and scored 939 runs. They also were swept out of the postseason in 3 straight losses.

2020, it's hard to give anyone credit or blame. 60 game season against a limited schedule with partial rosters. But he did win the ALC.

Since then? 

 

Rocco Baldelli has a .529 Win % with the MN Twins (as you noted: 2019 counts). Since that fantastic season, he also had a .600 Win % in 2020, then 2 losing seasons, another playoff team in 2023 and despite the horrid stretch their in right now, the Twins are still likely to finish with a winning record and still have pretty good odds of making the playoffs. But I find it interesting that you so easily find a way to discount Baldelli's best seasons with the club?

Let's take Ron Gardenhire if we want to a) do the "how's he been lately?" bit, and b) address the issue of whether Rocco would get another managing job if he wanted one, since that was the point I was trying to make anyways.

Gardy had a .507 Win % with the franchise in 13 seasons. 8 winning seasons, 5 losing ones. he never cracked 60% wins in his career, though he came close a couple of times. Following the 2010 season, easily his best season in several years, the team absolutely cratered and Gardy never had another winning season as Twins manager. Rocco may have had a couple of poor seasons after his initial success, but the team also rebounded to win their first playoff series in over 20 years and first playoff game since Gardy's 3rd season as manager.

YMMV on whether the Twins stuck with Gardy too long or not, but the reality is Gardy had 10 consecutive seasons to end his tenure with the franchise where they did not win a playoff game. That said, Gardy, despite his exceptionally long tenure and relationship with the Twins and being more than 15 years older than Rocco is now got another chance to manage in MLB. It didn't go well for him, but that's another matter. The case for Rocco not getting another chance to manage in MLB if the team fires him at the end of the season is basically a group of fans saying "I don't like him".

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Farmer decision looks worse every day. Lee might, might, be a SS someday, but he's not hitting at all right now. Jeffers, Wallner, Larnach and Santana and ? And Jeffers is only allowed to catch every other game. 

 

As a thought exercise, I just went through our lineup for tonight to list everyone who has an OPS over .700 over the last 30 games. The list? Wallner, Kyle Farmer, Larnach, Santana (barely) and Miranda (barely). Martin was close. No one else was really very close. I then took asway anyone who didn't have an OPS over .700 the last 15 games and there went Santana and Mirnada. Neither is even close over the last 15. Martin was close over 30 and above .700 over the last 15. I looked at Lewis and Castro on the bench to see if they qualify. Nope, not anywhere near close. Lewis and Castro are the worst hitters on the team over the last month and that's saying a lot with Julien and Vasquez on the roster. Lee has been even wore, he just hasn't been up for a month. 

The point of all this is just to show how hard it must be to construct a lineup when you have 3, maybe 4 hitters who have been even MLB average or slightly better over the last month. How many times have we seen Lewis or Castro come up with runners on in scoring position and watched them strike out?  This team just doesn't have enough MLB ready hitting to be competitive unless some of these guys turn it around. I have very little confidence of that happening. 

The ironic thing is that when yo look at the actual performance numbers tonight's decision to play Farmer at 3B instead of Lewis not only makes sense, it's the absolute right decision. Who would have guessed that? Maybe Rocco isn't completely asleep after all. 

 

[karcherd]

28 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

As a thought exercise, I just went through our lineup for tonight to list everyone who has an OPS over .700 over the last 30 games. The list? Wallner, Kyle Farmer, Larnach, Santana (barely) and Miranda (barely). Martin was close. No one else was really very close. I then took asway anyone who didn't have an OPS over .700 the last 15 games and there went Santana and Mirnada. Neither is even close over the last 15. Martin was close over 30 and above .700 over the last 15. I looked at Lewis and Castro on the bench to see if they qualify. Nope, not anywhere near close. Lewis and Castro are the worst hitters on the team over the last month and that's saying a lot with Julien and Vasquez on the roster. Lee has been even wore, he just hasn't been up for a month. 

The point of all this is just to show how hard it must be to construct a lineup when you have 3, maybe 4 hitters who have been even MLB average or slightly better over the last month. How many times have we seen Lewis or Castro come up with runners on in scoring position and watched them strike out?  This team just doesn't have enough MLB ready hitting to be competitive unless some of these guys turn it around. I have very little confidence of that happening. 

The ironic thing is that when yo look at the actual performance numbers tonight's decision to play Farmer at 3B instead of Lewis not only makes sense, it's the absolute right decision. Who would have guessed that? Maybe Rocco isn't completely asleep after all. 

 

Anybody can see Lewis needs a day off, so that decision isn't genius like.  Are the players not hitting over the last month because they are all slumping or is it because there is no consistency in the lineups.  These players are human and consistency does matter, in both lineup construction and playing time.  I would venture to say it is a little bit of both.

[D.C Twins]

6 hours ago, Unwinder said:

This is a guess, how could something that hasn't happened yet tell me everything I need to know?

I'm not a gambler but I would be supremely confident to bet on this.... 

And if managing really doesn't matter because he just is a FO straw man... why have a manager at all?

 

[miller761]

Give me even some of these players and things would be different. A healthy Correa, Kepler, Buxton, Ryan and Stewart. 

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Anybody can see Lewis needs a day off, so that decision isn't genius like.  Are the players not hitting over the last month because they are all slumping or is it because there is no consistency in the lineups.  These players are human and consistency does matter, in both lineup construction and playing time.  I would venture to say it is a little bit of both.

They don't know how to hit if they hit in a different spot? 

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

I'm not a gambler but I would be supremely confident to bet on this.... 

And if managing really doesn't matter because he just is a FO straw man... why have a manager at all?

 

Literally no one has said this exaggeration. It's a team effort between the FO and manager. Life is a dial, not switch. 

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They don't know how to hit if they hit in a different spot? 

I didn't say it was the whole reason but it is a factor.  How many lineups over the years have been constructed with protecting a hitter in other words getting a respected #4 hitter so your #3 hitters sees better pitches.  Go with one lineup let the players get comfortable that puts them in the best spot to be productive and see how they do.  Because what they are doing sure doesn't seem to be working.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, karcherd said:

I didn't say it was the whole reason but it is a factor.  How many lineups over the years have been constructed with protecting a hitter in other words getting a respected #4 hitter so your #3 hitters sees better pitches.  Go with one lineup let the players get comfortable that puts them in the best spot to be productive and see how they do.  Because what they are doing sure doesn't seem to be working.

Go ahead, construct your ideal lineup with this roster.... Them look at how good it is. 

This idea that Lewis doesn't know how to hit because he's been moved around the order, with these injuries and others not hitting is silly. Truly. 

[karcherd]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Go ahead, construct your ideal lineup with this roster.... Them look at how good it is. 

This idea that Lewis doesn't know how to hit because he's been moved around the order, with these injuries and others not hitting is silly. Truly. 

You are talking about one player, the original comment mentioned a number of players not hitting, that is what I am referring to.   How does everyone stop hitting at the same time.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, karcherd said:

You are talking about one player, the original comment mentioned a number of players not hitting, that is what I am referring to.   How does everyone stop hitting at the same time.

Well, they have several minor league players in the roster right now, and Julien hasn't hit all year, nor has Farmer and Vazquez barely has. This idea that someone is to blame for everything that happens on the planet isn't true. Stuff happens without anyone being at fault every day. We just won't agree here, so I'm asking is that people consider the idea that stuff is happening randomly....

[Rufus]

Baldelli has lost this team, he lost hem when he passed the buck on Duran for blowing the lead against KC Saturday Night.  Once again he refused to accept any of the blame for making a bad decision in that situation,  Duran accepted  the blame and felt remorseful Saturday night, and Baldelli put all on him.   then Sunday he blows up on his team, what a class act.  I have never seen a manager that never takes the blame for anything that happens on the field the way this guy does.  Baldelli has to go.  

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, karcherd said:

Anybody can see Lewis needs a day off, so that decision isn't genius like.  Are the players not hitting over the last month because they are all slumping or is it because there is no consistency in the lineups.  These players are human and consistency does matter, in both lineup construction and playing time.  I would venture to say it is a little bit of both.

This is the specious reasoning that is thriving right now.  There is not a single ounce of this that is plausible or makes sense even though it sounds like it when you type it.  Let me illustrate:

1) The Twins have been platooning and moving lineup positions from Day 1.  For several years.  This is not a new thing that just started as the team slumped. 

2) In fact, they were doing the very same thing when the Twins were scoring 6+ runs a game during the heat of the summer and performing like one of baseball's best offenses.  

3) To put it simply - Rocco hasn't changed anything he has been doing one bit, for better or worse.  (Whatever your perspective is)  His managerial approach is unchanged.  Unchanged from the slump early.  Unchanged from the binge in the June and July.  Unchanged during this two week nightmre.

4) So the only rational thing to do is wonder.....what IS different.  It seems rather obvious: no Buxton.  No Correa.  No Kepler.  Lewis looks hurt.  The book is out on Lee.  Julien hasn't hit all year.  Castro is out of gas.  The lineup is devastated.  He's fielding AA players at times.  This isn't a slump because of lineup switching from the manager.  This is a slump because his lineup no longer exists and the guys who are left aren't carrying the scraps of the team they can field.

5) To hammer the point even more about how unfair this analysis is: The accusation is that Rocco is overthinking it by using data to craft the best lineups he can with the few pieces he has....but we're to assume from your argument that Royce Lewis is coming to the plate and thinking "My god...I'm hitting 5th instead of 3rd....stupid Rocco....how am I supposed to hit now!"

And ROCCO is overthinking things?  Hit 8th.  Hit 2nd.  Hit anywhere and approach the at-bat like a professional.

Or...maybe....just maybe.....this team that was thinned out by ownership penny pinching is out of horses.

[D.C Twins]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Literally no one has said this exaggeration. It's a team effort between the FO and manager. Life is a dial, not switch. 

Agreed... which is why the Twins need a new manager with better decision making and better leadership skills whether the FO stays or not.

I actually think the FO has done a good job drafting but not so much with free agents. They have more control over drafting and development because FA is impacted by ownership budget.

Keep the FO and dump Rocco. 

[Schmoeman5]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

 Life is a dial, not switch. 

Looks like the dial is fried. I think the neutral got crossed and it burned up. Let me get my wiggy and check.

[Reptevia]

“However, it was a stern reminder that the team has shown a bit of habitual give-up this year, not necessarily from a lack of character or toughness or culture or even talent, but perhaps as an unfortunate characteristic.”

Disagree. It’s the culture. 

[chpettit19]

15 hours ago, karcherd said:

I didn't say it was the whole reason but it is a factor.  How many lineups over the years have been constructed with protecting a hitter in other words getting a respected #4 hitter so your #3 hitters sees better pitches.  Go with one lineup let the players get comfortable that puts them in the best spot to be productive and see how they do.  Because what they are doing sure doesn't seem to be working.

It worked for the entire middle segment of the season. Why is it not working now? 

This isn't something that changed. Your argument is basically that it took them until the middle of August to be effected by the switching of lineup spots. They were 5th in baseball in runs scored from May through July. 8th in baseball in runs scored from opening day through July. They weren't in static order that whole time. Why was it working then?

[P Meyer]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:38 AM, Karbo said:

I'm really bored hearing about these players being tired. They get paid more than 80% of the working population, They work (play) 6-7 months per year, they have the rest of the year to work on conditioning and training. And they're tired? What about the rest of the league? Aren't they playing just as long? I haven't heard them complaining. Why are the Twins so much more tired than they are? "Tired" just sounds like an excuse to me!

They get paid more because few people can do what they do. They are tired because they have public expectations (in addition to internal expectations) that few people will ever have. They are traveling a significant amount of the time with little control over when and where they go. Maybe these guys are tired because they are young and inexperienced with how to manage the MLB grind. The "dog days of the season" is a phrase that has been used for a long time. It's a grind. It's up to them to figure it out. Hopefully they will be better prepared for next season if they can keep their respective, high volume roles. 

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Agreed... which is why the Twins need a new manager with better decision making and better leadership skills whether the FO stays or not.

I actually think the FO has done a good job drafting but not so much with free agents. They have more control over drafting and development because FA is impacted by ownership budget.

Keep the FO and dump Rocco. 

Do you believe the front office would hire a manager that would do things drastically different than Baldelli?

How do you think this dynamic works? The front office just puts together a team with certain strengths and weaknesses randomly and hope that their manager uses them in the right way? You think they have a right handed hitter who's only skill on a baseball field is hitting left handed pitching on the roster at all times and just hope their manager uses them right? Garlick, Luplow, Farmer, Margot the list goes on and on. You think they thought those were the most talented players and the fact that Rocco platoons them wasn't something they planned with Rocco?

Do you believe they think Rocco is doing things wrong? That's what it'd take for them to fire him. He hasn't changed drastically in his entire time here and they extended his contract. Do you think the front office thinks he makes the wrong decisions and leads in the wrong way but still extended his contract?

This idea that the front office would stay and Rocco would leave and you'd see the team run drastically different flies in the face of all logic. These are front office strategies that Rocco also believes in. Molitor didn't and that's why they fired him. They wouldn't fire Rocco and then hire somebody that doesn't believe in their strategies. It doesn't make any sense.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, P Meyer said:

They get paid more because few people can do what they do. They are tired because they have public expectations (in addition to internal expectations) that few people will ever have. They are traveling a significant amount of the time with little control over when and where they go. Maybe these guys are tired because they are young and inexperienced with how to manage the MLB grind. The "dog days of the season" is a phrase that has been used for a long time. It's a grind. It's up to them to figure it out. Hopefully they will be better prepared for next season if they can keep their respective, high volume roles. 

I respectfully disagree. At that age there is no excuse I can think of for being tired. If their hurt that's a different story, They are paid so well they don't need to work in the off season, which should give them plenty of time for conditioning.

[tedk]

Other than repeating the same points many times, that was a very good article and I agree that if Rocco doesn't make the playoffs this year he's history. 

[old nurse]

The notion that an organization that has theories on how the game should be played wouldn’t hire a like minded coach seems to escape people. The front office is loathe to ever admit they made a mistake. Baldelli is not going anywhere unless the FO is going out the door before him or friction develops because Baldelli does like what the front office does. 

 

The people who say the team is young probably should be stating that the core talent is relatively inexperienced.  Semantics always end up getting in the way. 

 

[MMMordabito]

On 9/10/2024 at 8:38 AM, Karbo said:

I'm really bored hearing about these players being tired. They get paid more than 80% of the working population, They work (play) 6-7 months per year, they have the rest of the year to work on conditioning and training. And they're tired? What about the rest of the league? Aren't they playing just as long? I haven't heard them complaining. Why are the Twins so much more tired than they are? "Tired" just sounds like an excuse to me!

They need to go to the Matt Olson Off-Season Training Program.