Why the Twins Might Be Better Off in the Third Wild Card Spot

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s lackluster performance in recent weeks has pushed them down in the standings to the final playoff spot. Is this right where the team wants to be?

Image courtesy of Erik Williams - USA TODAY Sports

With the final stretch of the 2024 season underway, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. While the natural instinct is to push for the highest seed possible, there’s a compelling case for the Twins to strategically aim for the third Wild Card spot. Securing this position could set them up for a more favorable matchup against a vulnerable Houston Astros squad rather than facing one of the heavy hitters from the AL East.

When you think of recent postseason success, the Houston Astros have been the standard-bearer in the American League for nearly a decade. But 2024 hasn’t been the smoothest of seasons for them, and there are signs they could be ripe for an upset in the Wild Card round. Here’s why:

1. Inconsistent Starting Pitching: Houston’s rotation, typically a strength, hasn’t lived up to its usual billing, with injuries impacting their starters. Framber Valdez has been their ace with a sub-3.00 ERA while holding opponents to a .601 OPS. Outside of Valdez, there are a lot of question marks. Yusei Kikuchi was acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline, but his 2024 performance has been inconsistent. Justin Verlander has returned from injury but has been limited as he continues to age. With injuries depleting their depth, the Astros are relying on arms that don’t strike the same fear as in years past.
2. Offensive Streakiness: The Astros' lineup, headlined by Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman, still has plenty of firepower. However, they’ve gone through extended slumps, leaving them more susceptible than usual. Kyle Tucker has missed most of the season with an injury, and Bregman has had a down year by his standards. Minnesota’s offense ranks fourth in the AL for wRC+, with the Astros being one spot ahead of them. However, the Yankees and Orioles rank at the top of the league. When they’re not firing on all cylinders, the Astros' offense looks much more human.
3. Bullpen Woes: While Houston has long been known for its reliable bullpen, it has seen cracks in that armor this season. Minnesota’s relievers have accumulated the second-highest fWAR among AL teams (4.9 fWAR), more than double Houston’s total (2.2 fWAR). The Twins, who have shown a knack for working counts and extending at-bats, could take advantage of a tired or shaky bullpen in a short series.

If the Twins were to land the second Wild Card spot, they would be staring down a matchup with the second-place team from the AL East, likely either the Baltimore Orioles or the New York Yankees. Both matchups would be considerably more daunting.

1. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball all season, driven by their exciting young core. With players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and a lockdown bullpen, they pose a significant challenge. Baltimore’s combination of youth and top-tier talent has made them one of the toughest teams to beat in the AL. Minnesota has gone 0-3 against Baltimore this season while being outscored 22 to 9. 
2. New York Yankees: Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Twins in previous playoff appearances, and the 2024 Yankees are a formidable opponent. Gerrit Cole can still dominate any lineup, and Aaron Judge and Juan Soto change the game with one swing of the bat. Minnesota went 0-6 versus New York this season while being outscored by 24 runs. The Yankees present a more intimidating challenge than a flawed Astros team.

There’s no denying that the Twins want to enter the playoffs with momentum, but that doesn’t necessarily mean gunning for the highest seed. The Astros, while still a talented team, have shown enough weaknesses this season to make a first-round matchup with them a desirable outcome for Minnesota. The Twins finished the regular season with a 4-2 record against the Astros.

The third Wild Card spot would also allow the Twins to avoid an immediate battle with the AL East giants. Facing the Orioles or Yankees, who are built for postseason success, could prove a far more daunting task. A matchup with Houston, on the other hand, gives the Twins a realistic chance to win a Wild Card series and build momentum for a deeper playoff run.

This counterintuitive strategy could be Minnesota’s best path to postseason success as the season winds down. Is the third Wild Card spot better than the second Wild Card spot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[CRF]

If they don't get their sh*t together real fast, it's gonna be a moot point. 

[DJL44]

It doesn't matter. There are no expectations that this team will win even one playoff game. They're the underdog and that should reduce the pressure and allow them to just play baseball.

[bean5302]

The Twins should be aiming for the division lead, even now. It seems like they're aiming for the sofa come playoff time, though. There are 3 teams within 3 games of the Twins at this point. The Twins face 10 of their last 18 games against teams over .500.

Red Sox - also floundering, but have 3 games head to head vs. the Twins at Fenway 9/20-9/22.
Tigers - quietly closing in on the Twins for quite a while, probably easier schedule.
Mariners - seemingly a floundering team, but easier schedule.

[roger]

Have been saying that for weeks.  No way do they want to play the Yankees, or Birds.

Now they just got to win a few games and get into October ball.  That is looking more uncertain every game.

[Blyleven2011]

What if there wasn't a wildcard  position , we'd  be just playing out the season   ...

Aspirations in the spring Are to win the division and not settle for a wildcard and get lucky , second best is not my goal and it shouldn't be for the team either  ...

Remember there never used to be a wildcard  and teams had to fight alot harder to get to the playoffs and win a division  , the focus was much stronger when there wasn't a wildcard  , the game isn't played today with the same luster of yesteryears  ...

[Whitey333]

The way the Twins have been playing recently, they are 5-16 in last 21 games, they don't deserve getting in.  They would only get embarrassed. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

I hate when we get to the point we’re wishing for a certain matchup by finishing poorly…just not so poorly as to miss the playoffs completely. Finish as strong and healthy as possible and push for the division. We have to beat them all eventually so get in to the dance and get after it! 

[Parfigliano]

27 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I hate when we get to the point we’re wishing for a certain matchup by finishing poorly…just not so poorly as to miss the playoffs completely. Finish as strong and healthy as possible and push for the division. We have to beat them all eventually so get in to the dance and get after it! 

Dont have to beat NYY if someone else beats them first.

[Craig Arko]

I don’t think it’s going to matter all that much.

[thelanges5]

Need to get out of this April offense. They made adjustments back then and they need to do the same thing again. They had the best record in the AL when they were averaging over 5 runs/game. April and the last 20 they are back down to just over 3 runs/game. That won’t get them very far in the playoffs.

[chpettit19]

I'll never understand the idea of "we should hope they avoid this good team in the playoffs so they only have to play this good team." The playoffs are hard. Get in and give it your best shot. If the Twins can't beat New York or Baltimore the better option is to go White Sox on things and lose 130 games and get a top pick. 

There were a couple teams that were "better off playing" the "lowly" Rangers and Diamondbacks last year. Until they weren't. The Twins should be hoping they get into the playoffs and have the chance to show what they can do. You have to beat good teams along the way to a championship. That's the entire point. Hoping good team B beats good team A for you just means that good team B is a good team. Apparently better than your super feared good team A.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What if there wasn't a wildcard  position , we'd  be just playing out the season   ...

Aspirations in the spring Are to win the division and not settle for a wildcard and get lucky , second best is not my goal and it shouldn't be for the team either  ...

Remember there never used to be a wildcard  and teams had to fight alot harder to get to the playoffs and win a division  , the focus was much stronger when there wasn't a wildcard  , the game isn't played today with the same luster of yesteryears  ...

No wild card left a lot of teams back in the day not trying at all. Where's the "luster" in that? And a lot of the teams that went into the year trying to win ended up being out of it by August and then they weren't playing with much "luster" either. There's pros and cons to the wild card. More teams trying now (Boston, Seattle, Detroit would be completely out of it without the wild card) than before, but the teams that were trying back then knew they had to build better teams. Double edged sword here, I'd say.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Dont have to beat NYY if someone else beats them first.

So then you have to beat somebody better than NYY?

[Karbo]

Either way if they win the 1st round (which I doubt, no matter who they play) They will still have to play Balt/NY or Cle. who has had our number for the last couple of years.

[JD-TWINS]

Everyone’s so upbeat on this one!!

If they get in, they’ll have their hands full without Correa and Buxton! IF those guys can play and aren’t limping around, the line-up gets pretty long and they have some flexibility later in games with the depth.

Everyone’s anxious about their Team once playoffs start!

Lopez-Ober are not as flashy with their stuff, but they get guys out as well as any other 1-2 in the A.L.

Gotta piece together shorter starts with Festa - SWR & longer bullpen with 9 relievers (4 starters rostered)

Would be really nice if the two guys currently out could get back to playing to get a handful of starts in prior to October.

Seems that 84 Wins gets them into 3rd spot as of this morning. ……they own series tiebreaker with Tigers & Mariners……currently up 2-1 v. Red Sox. If we’re at 84 W’s Tigers and/or Mariners gotta get to 85.

Twins currently at 77 W’s……Tigers at 74….Sox at 73……Mariners at 73. Sox & Mariners need to finish 12-5…….Tigers need to go 11-6 to overcome Twins with 84 wins.

Good guys are close but not quite comfortable yet. ………Whoever they play, if they are their better selves, they can win a series.

[Nashvilletwin]

Let’s get there first.

[LambchoP]

Any of these teams are going to be a daunting task. Astros, Yankees and Orioles have crushed us this year. If I had to pick a team to face, it'd be the one with no left handed starting pitching. When we face lefties there will be no Wallner or Larnach. Miranda doesn't hit them as well. Both Castro and Santana suck hitting RH. Plus, we'd probably see a lineup with Farmer, Vasquez and Martin. That's not an intimidating lineup to a good team. I'm not expecting anything in the wild card round other than a quick sweep, but of course, if a team gets hot at the right moment, anything can happen. Keep hope alive! Gotta get there first of course ...

[Tibs]

This doesn't work in professional sports, especially baseball.

Just get in and try to play your A game

[Craig Arko]

Astros are getting banged up; Twins are getting a little healthier. This may yet be a viable strategy. 

[South Dakota Tom]

There is another point on this topic (maybe even a separate thread, but I'm going to piggyback on this instead).

In almost all sports at all times, playing 1 versus 16 (NCAA); 1 versus 8 (NBA, NHL) makes perfect sense.  In baseball, however, we always give the #3 ranking to the division winner with the lowest win percentage.  I'm not going to back this up with a bunch of stats, but it does strike me that this creates an unfair imbalance, and is at the heart of the OP's point:  As the #1 seed, you will play the winner of 4 versus 5, which are the two best wild-card teams (and you will often find that the #4 seed and the #1 seed can easily - though not mandatory - come from the same division).

On the other side of the bracket, the worst division winner plays against the worst wild-card team, with the winner now playing the 2nd-worst division winner (also 2nd-best, I get that).

My point is simply that in my opinion, given the more-balanced schedules, the #4 seed is often better than the #3 seed in the current system.  This year, that just means is Baltimore/New York better than Houston?  In most years, is the #1 wild card team better than the division winner with the worst record?

Not sure there's a fix for this - it wouldn't be fair just to base it on W-L percentage with no accord for division, because some divisions are going to beat up on each other and other divisions will have two strong teams and 3 weak ones, and it wouldn't be fair for them to be ranked higher for playoff seeding.

But what about the 1 seed getting to choose which 3-6, 4-5 winner to play?  Either to avoid a team in your own division who knows you too well, or to take advantage of the fact that the #6 seed upset the #3?  Or because one first-round series went 3 games instead of 2, and they want to play the team who has burned 3 starters.  Seems in a weird way that being the #2 seed is an advantage over being #1 under the current system, and no one would say that if #1 got to choose....thoughts? 

[stringer bell]

As things stand now, the Twins would get the #3 Wildcard and play Houston on October 1. I will be making my first ever trip to the Space City on that Tuesday, so I totally approve of that matchup!!