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With the final stretch of the 2024 season underway, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. While the natural instinct is to push for the highest seed possible, there’s a compelling case for the Twins to strategically aim for the third Wild Card spot. Securing this position could set them up for a more favorable matchup against a vulnerable Houston Astros squad, rather than facing one of the heavy hitters from the AL East.
When you think of recent postseason success, the Houston Astros have been the standard-bearer in the American League for nearly a decade. But 2024 hasn’t been the smoothest of seasons for them, and there are signs they could be ripe for an upset in the Wild Card round. Here’s why:
- Inconsistent Starting Pitching: Houston’s rotation, typically a strength, hasn’t lived up to its usual billing, with injuries impacting their starters. Framber Valdez has been their ace, with a sub-3.00 ERA while holding opponents to a .601 OPS. Outside of Valdez, though, there are a lot of question marks. Yusei Kikuchi was acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline, but his 2024 performance has been inconsistent. Justin Verlander has returned from injury, but has been limited as he continues to age. With injuries depleting their depth, the Astros are relying on arms that don’t strike the same fear as in years past.
- Offensive Streakiness: The Astros' lineup, headlined by José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman, still has plenty of firepower. However, they’ve gone through extended slumps, leaving them more susceptible than usual. Tucker has missed most of the season with an injury, and Bregman has had a down year by his standards. Minnesota’s offense ranks fourth in the AL for wRC+, with the Astros being one spot ahead of them. However, the Yankees and Orioles rank at the top of the league. When they’re not firing on all cylinders, the Astros' offense looks much more human.
- Bullpen Woes: While Houston has long been known for its reliable bullpen, it has seen cracks in that armor this season. Minnesota’s relievers have accumulated the second-highest fWAR among AL teams (4.9 fWAR), more than double Houston’s total (2.2 fWAR). The Twins, who have shown a knack for working counts and extending at-bats, could take advantage of a tired or shaky bullpen in a short series.
If the Twins were to land the second Wild Card spot, they would be staring down a matchup with the second-place team from the AL East, likely either the Baltimore Orioles or the New York Yankees. Both matchups would be considerably more daunting.
- Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball all season, driven by their exciting young core. With players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and a lockdown bullpen, they pose a significant challenge. Baltimore’s combination of youth and top-tier talent has made them one of the toughest teams to beat in the AL. Minnesota has gone 0-3 against Baltimore this season while being outscored 22 to 9.
- New York Yankees: Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Twins in previous playoff appearances, and the 2024 Yankees are a formidable opponent. Gerrit Cole can still dominate any lineup, and Aaron Judge and Juan Soto change the game with one swing of the bat. Minnesota went 0-6 versus New York this season while being outscored by 24 runs. The Yankees present a more intimidating challenge than a flawed Astros team.
There’s no denying that the Twins want to enter the playoffs with momentum, but that doesn’t necessarily mean gunning for the highest seed. The Astros, while still a talented team, have shown enough weaknesses this season to make a first-round matchup with them a desirable outcome for Minnesota. The Twins finished the regular season with a 4-2 record against the Astros.
The third Wild Card spot would also allow the Twins to avoid an immediate battle with the AL East giants. Facing the Orioles or Yankees, who are built for postseason success, could prove a far more daunting task. A matchup with Houston, on the other hand, gives the Twins a realistic chance to win a Wild Card series and build momentum for a deeper playoff run.
This counterintuitive strategy could be Minnesota’s best path to postseason success as the season winds down. Is the third Wild Card spot better than the second Wild Card spot? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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