DaShawn Keirsey Jr May Be Able to Replace Byron Buxton in Center Field (Yes, Really)

[Eric Blonigen]

With Byron Buxton suffering a recurrence of hip pain during his a rehab assignment with the Saints, it’s now fair to question whether a return this season is in the cards. While Buxton has excelled both offensively and defensively, the Twins are fortunate to have DaShawn Keirsey Jr. as a possible everyday replacement down the stretch.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Twins fans are no strangers to this scenario – their star center fielder on the shelf when it matters most. In past seasons, the Twins have needed to rely on players like Jake Cave, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, and Mark Contreras in Buxton’s absence. It hasn’t gone well. Looking at those players' wRC+ production, none were even average, and in each case their defense was suspect as well. In short, all were incomplete players best suited to bench roles but were pressed into regular MLB duty out of desperation.

However, this time may well be different. The drop-off to Buxton’s replacement may not be as severe as in years past. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. offers more on all sides of the ball than those other players. He was drafted in the fourth round, much earlier than the guys mentioned above. He’s got multiple plus tools, rather than one at best like the others.

At 27, he's too old to be considered a prospect, but that doesn't mean he can't be an every day major-league player. He has improved offensively as he hits his age-based peak and has worked hard to get to this point. Let’s examine the reasons why his production is likely to pleasantly surprise.

Defense

Byron Buxton is a great defensive center fielder, that much is known. In roughly half a season in center, he’s been worth 4 defensive runs saved. The other hitters that have played in center this season have not acquitted themselves well, with Willi Castro (-5 DRS), Manny Margot (-1 DRS) and Austin Martin (-8 DRS) all playing sub-par defense. Collectively, they have cost the team about 1.5 wins in about 70 games. In short, those three are not major league center fielders, despite being able to play there in a pinch.

Keirsey is legitimate, and his range in center will limit the negative defensive impact of both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He will get to balls that Margot, Castro, Martin, and the guys of past seasons just couldn’t. His defense will save runs. If Buxton is able to return, Keirsey could provide elite defense in the corners as a fourth outfielder.

Offense

Keirsey has good offensive skills, particularly for a center fielder. Despite having some game power, Keirsey uses all fields well, actually going the other way more than he pulls. He’s got good plate discipline, taking 45 walks on the season.

He’s hit to a 116 wRC+, fourth among all Triple-A center fielders this season. Knowing there’s a real drop off in performance from AAA to the bigs, it’s reasonable to expect just a bit less from him. However, a 100 wRC+ is within reach. That will play, and is above the level Martin or Margot has hit at. The Twins have struggled this season with runners in scoring position, and a hitter like Keirsey will bring a professional approach with runners on.

Speed

Among all Triple-A center fielders, Keirsey has the fourth-best sprint speed. He’s a burner, one of the fastest in the organization. This has translated to 36 stolen bases, and Keirsey is a skilled baserunner as well, going first-to-third and taking the extra base when a well-hit ball allows for it. This adds a similar dynamic to Buxton, and is a substantial improvement over all non-Castro options in center.

Optimizing the lineup

With Keirsey in play as the most-days center fielder down the stretch, this allows for Rocco Baldelli to field the most competitive lineup, allowing Castro to focus on playing shortstop, third, and second. This also allows for Larnach and Wallner to play the corners on a daily basis, and for Michael Helman to be a super-utility player.

Will Keirsey be a star? Well…no, probably not. He can be a positive in every aspect of the game though, and that’s more than can be said for Buxton’s previous backups. The Twins will need to thread a bit of a needle if they hope to keep their playoff aspirations alive, and have a deep October run. In short, Keirsey allows the team to field their best defensive lineup on a daily basis.

After the rough showing over the past few weeks, Keirsey’s fielding gives fans something to look forward to, and he should impact the game offensively and on the base paths as well. It's been quite a while since the Twins had a legitimate Buxton backup, now it's on Kiersey to make the most of the opportunity and carve out a major league career.

What do you think? Are you feeling optimistic about DaShawn Keirsey? Comment below!

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[Blyleven2011]

The kid has worked hard , he faced years of adversity with injuries  , he has been healthy for over 2 years and his production has improved each healthy year ...

Thanks for the article  and I wish keirsey Jr,  well ...

[Karbo]

He's the best option they have at this point.

[Old Crow]

In order to make an impact he needs to be inserted into the starting line up.

[DJL44]

I am not expecting much. If he can catch the ball and put up an 85 OPS+ that would be appreciated. In other words - be Margot/Martin but with a better glove.

It's likely that he spends September struggling against MLB pitching and they really don't get a payoff until next season, if then.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A 28 yr-old rookie who is currently 0-3 being talked about as a "legitimate" Byron Buxton replacement...

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

In order to make an impact he needs to be inserted into the starting line up.

Concur.

I wish the Twins, when they lose a centerfielder, would call up and use a CENTERFIELDER. Ditto shortstop,  third base, etc.

A fill in, or utility guy, for a day or two, OK. But every day? No. Get a replacement up. 

That way you probably suffer offensively, but at least you limit the downgrade to mostly one side of the ball.

Let's play Kiersey in CF. Every day.

[chpettit19]

I'll note Dashawn is "only" 27, not 28. 

I'm very much glad to see Keirsey getting a shot. That said, I don't have super high hopes for him. If he can be an above average defender and wRC+ 90 I'll be very happy. And I think that's a pretty reasonable goal. I thought he looked quite comfortable in his first few plate appearances. 

The other part about getting a shot is that he actually has to be put on the field. He was called up Thursday. Not super surprising he didn't start game 1, and game 2 was against a lefty so we know he's not allowed in the starting lineup for that one. Started game 3, but didn't play in game 4 despite it being against a righty. Rocco/the Twins chose to DH a slumping Jeffers instead of playing Keirsey. Helman has been up since September 1 and has started 1 game while getting 4 total PAs.

Neither of these guys should be looked at as likely saviors or long term core pieces, but for a team in a death spiral with multiple guys many people feel are running out of gas why are you not playing the hungry, hustle heavy rookies? Helman and Keirsey are both known as guys who go all out all the time. Good athletes who hustle. But instead of putting them out there as a possible spark they've been relegated to defense replacements as the team now plays their games with 3 roster spots going to guys they apparently don't want to be more than defensive subs (Farmer being the other). 

I don't think Keirsey is a stud, but I think he can hold his own and I'd like to see him get a real shot over the next week. Closed door meetings and taking shots at your team through 1 or 2 sentence "press conferences" is all well and good, but how about you try playing the fresh legged rookies and see if they can provide a spark instead of watching your team tank out of the playoffs refusing to get away from who you want to be good?

[LambchoP]

Glad he finally got his much deserved call up. Aside from Buxton, Keirsey is the only true center fielder we have. I think he can help the team several ways. Good d, stolen base threat, solid at bats. Unfortunately he hits left handed. With Roccos obsession with platoons and pinch hitting, I think the fact that he hits lefty will cut into his playing time. I don't see Rocco starting an OF of all left handed hitters too often. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

In order to make an impact he needs to be inserted into the starting line up.

Your sentence is absolutely true. 

I'll add that even if inserted into the lineup. He will not be allowed to fully replace Buxton because he is left handed.  

Martin or Helman will need to handcuff to him so it takes two players to fully replace Buxton. 

The way things currently stand.

We have 4 left handed hitters. 3 of those left handed hitters play OF. 

Do we have enough right handed cover for 3 OF'ers that Rocco has consistently shown that he doesn't want facing lefties? 

Is September the time to say to those left handed hitters. Hey... Go face these strange looking things that we have kept you away from?  

 

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Started game 3, but didn't play in game 4 despite it being against a righty. Rocco/the Twins chose to DH a slumping Jeffers instead of playing Keirsey. Helman has been up since September 1 and has started 1 game while getting 4 total PAs.

Yep

Another consideration was the unavailability of Santana. Some sort of Illness I guess. 

Right now... Rocco figures he has 9 better than Kiersay against right handers while he closes the door and yells at those 9 better. 😉 

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

Do we have enough right handed cover for 3 OF'ers?  

 

Where there's a will, there's a way. Jeffers to LF? Farmer has played out there a few times in his career. They have 10 guys who stand in the right handed batters box. They can make the dream come true today against Mr Detmers if they're really dedicated to it. Martin-Castro-Helman OF, Miranda-Lee-Farmer-Santana IF, Jeffers C, Lewis DH. I bet the FO gets a pizza party for making such a thing come to life.

[Eric Blonigen]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Concur.

I wish the Twins, when they lose a centerfielder, would call up and use a CENTERFIELDER. Ditto shortstop,  third base, etc.

A fill in, or utility guy, for a day or two, OK. But every day? No. Get a replacement up. 

That way you probably suffer offensively, but at least you limit the downgrade to mostly one side of the ball.

Let's play Kiersey in CF. Every day.

Exactly. He can prevent at least many of the dinks and dunks that fall for hits if he’s playing. 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Where there's a will, there's a way. Jeffers to LF? Farmer has played out there a few times in his career. They have 10 guys who stand in the right handed batters box. They can make the dream come true today against Mr Detmers if they're really dedicated to it. Martin-Castro-Helman OF, Miranda-Lee-Farmer-Santana IF, Jeffers C, Lewis DH. I bet the FO gets a pizza party for making such a thing come to life.

 Can't stop now. Commit to the bit. 

Is September the time to turn to your young left handed hitters and say... Hey... Go Face those foreign objects  that we have protected you from? 

The bill is coming due. 

 

[ashbury]

I've been hoping for him to get a chance. I want to find out.

But color me skeptical.  I'm not sold on his CF defense as being special.  And if it's not then I'm concerned the bat won't be enough.

IOW, I fear he'll be a tweener.

Please prove me wrong, DaShawn 

[bean5302]

Keirsey is not 28 so the article doesn't start off on a good foot, but it's not like it's material as Keirsey is 27 and 3 months at the moment. He turns 28 next May. The history is clear Keirsey is an extreme long shot as prospects who don't force their way onto a roster by age 25 or 26 are almost never successful.

DaShawn Keirsey's CF defensive numbers are weaker than Austin Martin's were. Keirsey might be okay in CF, but he's almost certainly not going to be a plus defender at the position. Honestly, I don't see any way Martin isn't superior to Keirsey, and Martin is honestly that prototypical 4th outfielder type.

There's about a 5% chance Keirsey can manage a wRC+ 90 or higher at the MLB level in my opinion. Keirsey struggled two years ago in AA (a25). He struggled last year in AAA (a26). He's struggled half the season in AAA this year. Despite a fiery hot little streak recently, Keirsey is .284/.340/.428 OPS .768 wRC+ 98 since coming back from his injury on 6/22. Below average at AAA. At age 27.

There's are reasons Keirsey wasn't called up until the Twins had injuries stack up, and reasons he isn't being played by the Twins currently. He's gotten 3 plate appearances since he was called up. For whatever reason, Keirsey seems to be a huge site writer favorite, but I don't see any of the positive projectability in him. I think it's great he got to the big show, and he'll get his chance to play at the MLB level to create some memories. I consider it absolutely unreasonably wild to suggest Keirsey can replace Buxton.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The kid has worked hard , he faced years of adversity with injuries  , he has been healthy for over 2 years and his production has improved each healthy year ...

Thanks for the article  and I wish keirsey Jr,  well ...

If he's there tonight he should play tonight.

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A 28 yr-old rookie who is currently 0-3 being talked about as a "legitimate" Byron Buxton replacement...

Homework time. He is 27 yrs and 3 months old born in May of 1997. 0-3 means nothing, He has a chance to be a quality MLB cf. Just coming into his prime.

[Greglw3]

I like the article and attention on one of my favorite players! One note, Keirsey isn’t 28 but only turned 27 in mid-May, born in 1997. He’s just coming into his prime. I’m betting on your article being "prophetic"!

[August J Gloop]

I hope you liked Jake Cave. DSK's MiLB numbers are basically the same. He is better defensively. 

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Your sentence is absolutely true. 

I'll add that even if inserted into the lineup. He will not be allowed to fully replace Buxton because he is left handed.  

Martin or Helman will need to handcuff to him so it takes two players to fully replace Buxton. 

The way things currently stand.

We have 4 left handed hitters. 3 of those left handed hitters play OF. 

Do we have enough right handed cover for 3 OF'ers that Rocco has consistently shown that he doesn't want facing lefties? 

Is September the time to say to those left handed hitters. Hey... Go face these strange looking things that we have kept you away from?  

 

I checked not too long ago and Keirsey hits LHP just about as well as RHP. I seem to recall he had a very high OBP vs lefties.

[RpR]

If he can do as well as Taylor did , it is a plus.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Homework time. He is 27 yrs and 3 months old born in May of 1997. 0-3 means nothing, He has a chance to be a quality MLB cf. Just coming into his prime.

I have a chance to win big with scratch-off lottery tickets. The most likely outcome is I'm out $5.

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I checked not too long ago and Keirsey hits LHP just about as well as RHP. I seem to recall he had a very high OBP vs lefties.

That may not matter based on the strictness of the process. 

[Doctor Gast]

The time to groom Keirsey as Buxton's replacement was in the beginning of the year not now (he not going to be our savior at this stage of the game). Margot should have never been acquired. He took valuable playing time from Martin against LHPs to ease him in & Martin was left with the more difficult RHPs that Keirsey would have had an easier time with. Because of that & playing CF over an extended time (a difficult position he's just started to learn) Martin has been stymied. If Keirsey was available he'd acquired the needed MLB experience needed to better our chances down the stretch & ease Martin's burden.

Helman isn't a super-utility player at the MLB level, he shouldn't be trusted to play CF or SS. So the positions that he can play is cOF & 2B (positions where we are well represented). Martin is a much better selection than Helman.

Keirsey is still a much-needed call-up even though it's 6 months late. I agree with many that he looks good at the plate, and that the 0-3 isn't a fair representation of his true potential.  I wish him well, not only because I like him but also because we need him.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I have a chance to win big with scratch-off lottery tickets. The most likely outcome is I'm out $5.

Ha ha!

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

That may not matter based on the strictness of the process. 

You may have a point there but that strictness is shallow and misguided IMO.

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I know he is not known for offense, but given what we've seen offensively from this team lately from our bashers who supposedly are warn down from a grinding season, I say play him every day in CF.  He may provide a spark and then we know whether he can be our CF next season when Buxton is hurt.

"Not known for offense" .292 this season with 75 RBI while missing about a month and often batting leadoff + 36 SB

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

You may have a point there but that strictness is shallow and misguided IMO.

I'm with ya. It seems to be the process none the less. 

I also want to state that I have a problem with the tip system at restaurants and I can't do anything about it. Every single time I order that Prime Rib at Texas Roadhouse... it costs me 20% more for some reason beyond my control. 

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

"Not known for offense" .292 this season with 75 RBI while missing about a month and often batting leadoff + 36 SB

Drafted out of college in 2018. Every stop along the way with over 100 PA
2018 a21 (Rookie Ball) - wRC+ 111
2019 a22 (A Ball) - wRC+ 29
2020 a23 (2020) - DNP
2021 a24 (A+ Ball) - wRC+ 96
2022 a25 (AA) - wRC+ 86
---------------------------------- This is where legitimate prospect status is lost
2023 a26 (AA) - wRC+ 123
2023 a26 (AAA) - wRC+ 93
2024 a27 (AAA) - wRC+ 116

2024 represents only the 2nd season in his entire career where he hasn't hit below average in a stop with over 100 PA. His last 256 plate appearances in AAA (since his return from injury on 6/22) is wRC+ 98. Saying Keirsey isn't known for his bat seems reasonable to me, especially since through age 25 he was below average at virtually every level of baseball.

How the Twins have handled Keirsey reminds me quite a bit of Nick Gordon, except Keirsey was older and less successful at pretty much every level he played.