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Twins fans are no strangers to this scenario – their star center fielder on the shelf when it matters most. In past seasons, the Twins have needed to rely on players like Jake Cave, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, and Mark Contreras in Buxton’s absence. It hasn’t gone well. Looking at those players' wRC+ production, none were even average, and in each case their defense was suspect as well. In short, all were incomplete players best suited to bench roles but were pressed into regular MLB duty out of desperation.
However, this time may well be different. The drop-off to Buxton’s replacement may not be as severe as in years past. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. offers more on all sides of the ball than those other players. He was drafted in the fourth round, much earlier than the guys mentioned above. He’s got multiple plus tools, rather than one at best like the others.
At 27, he's too old to be considered a prospect, but that doesn't mean he can't be an every day major-league player. He has improved offensively as he hits his age-based peak and has worked hard to get to this point. Let’s examine the reasons why his production is likely to pleasantly surprise.
Defense
Byron Buxton is a great defensive center fielder, that much is known. In roughly half a season in center, he’s been worth 4 defensive runs saved. The other hitters that have played in center this season have not acquitted themselves well, with Willi Castro (-5 DRS), Manny Margot (-1 DRS) and Austin Martin (-8 DRS) all playing sub-par defense. Collectively, they have cost the team about 1.5 wins in about 70 games. In short, those three are not major league center fielders, despite being able to play there in a pinch.
Keirsey is legitimate, and his range in center will limit the negative defensive impact of both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He will get to balls that Margot, Castro, Martin, and the guys of past seasons just couldn’t. His defense will save runs. If Buxton is able to return, Keirsey could provide elite defense in the corners as a fourth outfielder.
Offense
Keirsey has good offensive skills, particularly for a center fielder. Despite having some game power, Keirsey uses all fields well, actually going the other way more than he pulls. He’s got good plate discipline, taking 45 walks on the season.
He’s hit to a 116 wRC+, fourth among all Triple-A center fielders this season. Knowing there’s a real drop off in performance from AAA to the bigs, it’s reasonable to expect just a bit less from him. However, a 100 wRC+ is within reach. That will play, and is above the level Martin or Margot has hit at. The Twins have struggled this season with runners in scoring position, and a hitter like Keirsey will bring a professional approach with runners on.
Speed
Among all Triple-A center fielders, Keirsey has the fourth-best sprint speed. He’s a burner, one of the fastest in the organization. This has translated to 36 stolen bases, and Keirsey is a skilled baserunner as well, going first-to-third and taking the extra base when a well-hit ball allows for it. This adds a similar dynamic to Buxton, and is a substantial improvement over all non-Castro options in center.
Optimizing the lineup
With Keirsey in play as the most-days center fielder down the stretch, this allows for Rocco Baldelli to field the most competitive lineup, allowing Castro to focus on playing shortstop, third, and second. This also allows for Larnach and Wallner to play the corners on a daily basis, and for Michael Helman to be a super-utility player.
Will Keirsey be a star? Well…no, probably not. He can be a positive in every aspect of the game though, and that’s more than can be said for Buxton’s previous backups. The Twins will need to thread a bit of a needle if they hope to keep their playoff aspirations alive, and have a deep October run. In short, Keirsey allows the team to field their best defensive lineup on a daily basis.
After the rough showing over the past few weeks, Keirsey’s fielding gives fans something to look forward to, and he should impact the game offensively and on the base paths as well. It's been quite a while since the Twins had a legitimate Buxton backup, now it's on Kiersey to make the most of the opportunity and carve out a major league career.
What do you think? Are you feeling optimistic about DaShawn Keirsey? Comment below!
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