DaShawn Keirsey Jr May Be Able to Replace Byron Buxton in Center Field (Yes, Really)

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I know he is not known for offense, but given what we've seen offensively from this team lately from our bashers who supposedly are warn down from a grinding season, I say play him every day in CF.  He may provide a spark and then we know whether he can be our CF next season when Buxton is hurt.

"Not known for offense" .292 this season, .294 last season Wichita/St. Paul with 75 RBI in 2024 while missing about a month and often batting leadoff + 75 SB combined. .821 OPS in 2023 and .839 OPS in 2024. And 29 HR combined plus an excellent defensive CF, I’ve seen lots of video courtesy of Tom Froemming and on my own.

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

.821 OPS in 2023 and .839 OPS in 2024. 

Those are not impressive numbers for AAA, especially with the current run environment in AAA. St. Paul has a 770 OPS as a team and they're right in the middle of the pack on offense.  Median OPS in MLB is 700. The median hitter in MLB is a helluva lot better than the median hitter in AAA. Subtract 150-200 points from Keirsey's AAA OPS and you'll get a rough equivalency to the major leagues.

Hope for Austin Martin with a better glove.

[Road trip]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Those are not impressive numbers for AAA, especially with the current run environment in AAA. St. Paul has a 770 OPS as a team and they're right in the middle of the pack on offense.  Median OPS in MLB is 700. The median hitter in MLB is a helluva lot better than the median hitter in AAA. Subtract 150-200 points from Keirsey's AAA OPS and you'll get a rough equivalency to the major leagues.

Hope for Austin Martin with a better glove.

I don't disagree.  And I think I'll have to take that.

If we were to subtract 150 points from Keirsey's AAA OPS of .839 we get an .689 MLB OPS.  It doesn't sound all that sexy, but if it comes with good CF defense plus base stealing skills that is way, way better than what Margot (.652, no glove, no wheels) has given the Twins this year.  It's in line with Martin's contributions (poor glove, good wheels), and just slightly behind Kepler (good glove, poor wheels).

Make it so... cuz what other options are there at this point?

[USAFChief]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Hope for Austin Martin with a better glove.

Which would, uh, be better than Austin Martin. 

[DJL44]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Which would, uh, be better than Austin Martin. 

Sure, but still a LONG ways from replacing Byron Buxton.

[mikelink45]

Good article. I agree with you. The judgment of what Keirsey can't do is projection without substantiation. He can place center field. He has played well and has time to see what he can do.  

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Drafted out of college in 2018. Every stop along the way with over 100 PA
2018 a21 (Rookie Ball) - wRC+ 111
2019 a22 (A Ball) - wRC+ 29
2020 a23 (2020) - DNP
2021 a24 (A+ Ball) - wRC+ 96
2022 a25 (AA) - wRC+ 86
---------------------------------- This is where legitimate prospect status is lost
2023 a26 (AA) - wRC+ 123
2023 a26 (AAA) - wRC+ 93
2024 a27 (AAA) - wRC+ 116

2024 represents only the 2nd season in his entire career where he hasn't hit below average in a stop with over 100 PA. His last 256 plate appearances in AAA (since his return from injury on 6/22) is wRC+ 98. Saying Keirsey isn't known for his bat seems reasonable to me, especially since through age 25 he was below average at virtually every level of baseball.

How the Twins have handled Keirsey reminds me quite a bit of Nick Gordon, except Keirsey was older and less successful at pretty much every level he played.

Late bloomers 

Nelson Cruz

Jeff Kent

Brian Giles

Justin Turner

Joe Nathan (Twins)

Bobby Darwin (Twins)

Mickey Tettleton

Champ Summers

[Greglw3]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Those are not impressive numbers for AAA, especially with the current run environment in AAA. St. Paul has a 770 OPS as a team and they're right in the middle of the pack on offense.  Median OPS in MLB is 700. The median hitter in MLB is a helluva lot better than the median hitter in AAA. Subtract 150-200 points from Keirsey's AAA OPS and you'll get a rough equivalency to the major leagues.

Hope for Austin Martin with a better glove.

OK Let’s do Matt Wallner as an example:

.888 - .150 = .738

.888 - .200 = .688

Actual MLB .926, Oops!

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

OK Let’s do Matt Wallner as an example:

.888 - .150 = .738

.888 - .200 = .688

Actual MLB .926, Oops!

Wallner was lost at the plate to start the season and took a while to figure it out. Wallner in the month before his callup had a 1100 OPS in AAA. Subtract 150-200 points from that and see what you get.

Keirsey could become a better hitter at the MLB level but it isn't likely to happen in September. There is nothing in his AAA stats that would suggest an OPS > 700 in the big leagues is likely. 

The author didn't write the article saying "Keirsey Jr. could replace Byron Buxton if he suddenly gets a lot better at hitting and defense." Of course, Keirsey doesn't have the market cornered on wishful thinking. It's true of Austin Martin and Willi Castro that either of them could replace Buxton if they suddenly get a lot better at hitting and defense.

[jorgenswest]

Is it a given that he is already an above average major league centerfielder? He is fast. Does he take a good first step? Does he track the ball well? These are hard to watching the game in person and impossible watching on MiLB TV. The Twins staff should know having watched him. I don’t agree that they needed to call him up to see to evaluate his defense. If they left sitting in AAA a defensively above average major league center fielder that can approach league average with the bat they should all be fired.
 

 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I have a chance to win big with scratch-off lottery tickets. The most likely outcome is I'm out $5.

There's enough defeatist attitude around here.  You buy that lottery ticket Mr and you win!!!

  

[bean5302]

@Greglw3 I'm not quoting your Nelson Cruz comparison as that's a huge post of inline data. I don't really see the relevance in regard to Cruz vs. Keirsey, either. Nelson Cruz got his first call into the big show at age 24 and then bounced back and forth between MiLB and MLB. During his time bouncing around, Cruz dominated AAA, and he raked for years prior to that at a substantially younger age than Keirsey.
Cruz
2004 a23 AA = OPS .919
2005 a24 AA = OPS .965
2005 a24 AAA = OPS .873
2006 a25 AAA = wRC+ 137
2007 a26 AAA = wRC+ 181
2008 a27 AAA = wRC+ 177
2008 a27 MLB = wRC+ 168

If you wanted to play the late bloomer card, you'd need to find a player who wasn't dominating the upper minors before age 25 because guys get called up if they're hitting well in the upper minors. It's going to be nearly impossible to find a comp for DaShawn Keirsey because of that. Josh Donaldson was a good example of a late bloomer, but he was in MLB at age 24 and had a history of crushing baseballs at least sporadically back to age 21. Maybe more recently, Brent Rooker, but Rooker utterly owned MiLB and was in the big show at age 25.

There's really nothing in Keirsey's profile to suggest he's going to be able to hit well enough at the MLB level to hold down a roster spot. He doesn't walk a lot. He strikes out quite a bit, and he has mediocre power. If I were to pick a comp for Keirsey, it's Trevor Larnach. Keirsey and Larnach are the same age, born only 3 months apart. Both were drafted out of college in 2018. Larnach is weak defensively, but he was still called up at age 24 because he was hitting very well in the high minors whereas Keirsey was struggling in the low minors at that point. Larnach, despite all his experience at the highest levels and the advantages of MLB experience, and the history of being a far better player than Keirsey, is still a little questionable as a reliable starter.

[Greglw3]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

@Greglw3 I'm not quoting your Nelson Cruz comparison as that's a huge post of inline data. I don't really see the relevance in regard to Cruz vs. Keirsey, either. Nelson Cruz got his first call into the big show at age 24 and then bounced back and forth between MiLB and MLB. During his time bouncing around, Cruz dominated AAA, and he raked for years prior to that at a substantially younger age than Keirsey.
Cruz
2004 a23 AA = OPS .919
2005 a24 AA = OPS .965
2005 a24 AAA = OPS .873
2006 a25 AAA = wRC+ 137
2007 a26 AAA = wRC+ 181
2008 a27 AAA = wRC+ 177
2008 a27 MLB = wRC+ 168

If you wanted to play the late bloomer card, you'd need to find a player who wasn't dominating the upper minors before age 25 because guys get called up if they're hitting well in the upper minors. It's going to be nearly impossible to find a comp for DaShawn Keirsey because of that. Josh Donaldson was a good example of a late bloomer, but he was in MLB at age 24 and had a history of crushing baseballs at least sporadically back to age 21. Maybe more recently, Brent Rooker, but Rooker utterly owned MiLB and was in the big show at age 25.

There's really nothing in Keirsey's profile to suggest he's going to be able to hit well enough at the MLB level to hold down a roster spot. He doesn't walk a lot. He strikes out quite a bit, and he has mediocre power. If I were to pick a comp for Keirsey, it's Trevor Larnach. Keirsey and Larnach are the same age, born only 3 months apart. Both were drafted out of college in 2018. Larnach is weak defensively, but he was still called up at age 24 because he was hitting very well in the high minors whereas Keirsey was struggling in the low minors at that point. Larnach, despite all his experience at the highest levels and the advantages of MLB experience, and the history of being a far better player than Keirsey, is still a little questionable as a reliable starter.

We'll see!

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Is it a given that he is already an above average major league centerfielder? He is fast. Does he take a good first step? Does he track the ball well? These are hard to watching the game in person and impossible watching on MiLB TV. The Twins staff should know having watched him. I don’t agree that they needed to call him up to see to evaluate his defense. If they left sitting in AAA a defensively above average major league center fielder that can approach league average with the bat they should all be fired.
 

 

Talk to Tom Froemming, DaShawn Keirsey is an excellent defensive center fielder.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Wallner was lost at the plate to start the season and took a while to figure it out. Wallner in the month before his callup had a 1100 OPS in AAA. Subtract 150-200 points from that and see what you get.

Keirsey could become a better hitter at the MLB level but it isn't likely to happen in September. There is nothing in his AAA stats that would suggest an OPS > 700 in the big leagues is likely. 

The author didn't write the article saying "Keirsey Jr. could replace Byron Buxton if he suddenly gets a lot better at hitting and defense." Of course, Keirsey doesn't have the market cornered on wishful thinking. It's true of Austin Martin and Willi Castro that either of them could replace Buxton if they suddenly get a lot better at hitting and defense.

I thought long ago, from watching several TFTwins videos and more on YouTube that DaShawn Keirsey has a really sweet swing (over and over and over) and is an excellent center fielder. Note that despite making outs, the very accomplished Eric Karros said he really liked the swings that Keirsey put on the ball. Plus, Keirsey uses the whole field, left, right and center and hits lefties well. If he does a big flop, I’ll say I was wrong but don’t forget the Twins FO thought Brent Rooker was a big flop and they were dead wrong.

[jorgenswest]

Keirsey and Cal Stevenson have a lot in common. Both are 27, played in the PAC 12, were drafted in 2018, are primarily centerfielders that can steal bases. Stevenson is currently on the Phillies bench being used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. His ISO in AAA this year is .184 and Keirsey’s is .185. Stevenson has had the better wRC+(139 to 116) in AAA this year due to his ability to draw walks.

Keirsey is getting his first shot. Cal has had several because of his earlier minor league success. That success led him to be put on the 40 man earlier and therefore run out of options earlier. Since then he has bounced around as a DFA quite a bit after being traded a few times early in his career. It seems unlikely that Keirsey is better than Stevenson. Keirsey has not been quite as solid with the bat. To this point Stevenson has provided depth in AAA whose speed and ability to play centerfield will get him cups of coffee while he is in the prime of his career. I don’t think Stevenson would be seen as a Buxton replacement. If so the Twins ought to sign him this winter. He will likely be available.

[Eric Blonigen]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

If he can do as well as Taylor did , it is a plus.

That’s the hope - stylistically they are different, but could he provide similar value through the extra points of BA and OBP? There’s a decent chance of that.

[Eric Blonigen]

8 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Glad he finally got his much deserved call up. Aside from Buxton, Keirsey is the only true center fielder we have. I think he can help the team several ways. Good d, stolen base threat, solid at bats. Unfortunately he hits left handed. With Roccos obsession with platoons and pinch hitting, I think the fact that he hits lefty will cut into his playing time. I don't see Rocco starting an OF of all left handed hitters too often. 

If anything, the fact that he’s a lefty bat should increase his playing time, comparatively. ~75% of starting pitchers are righties and the Twins may want to stick with him once opponents go to the bullpen due to his defense. They do need to actually start him though.

[Eric Blonigen]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Those are not impressive numbers for AAA, especially with the current run environment in AAA. St. Paul has a 770 OPS as a team and they're right in the middle of the pack on offense.  Median OPS in MLB is 700. The median hitter in MLB is a helluva lot better than the median hitter in AAA. Subtract 150-200 points from Keirsey's AAA OPS and you'll get a rough equivalency to the major leagues.

Hope for Austin Martin with a better glove.

But Keirsey has 70 points of OPS over team average, and at a premium defensive position. Without looking it up, I would guess it’s 120+ compared to the average AAA CF.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Homework time. He is 27 yrs and 3 months old born in May of 1997. 0-3 means nothing, He has a chance to be a quality MLB cf. Just coming into his prime.

I stand corrected on the age...

I can't tell if this is real or sarcasm.  This guy has been passed over time and time again over the last few years.  It took the OF to completely fall apart before he got called up and now isn't getting any PT.

Why am I supposed to see anything other than a fringe 4A player here?

[DocBauer]

The Twins know Keirsey better than I/we do, that's a fact. I have no idea if he...or Helman for that matter since he's very similar in this discussion...can hit ML pitching. But until he's given a chance, nobody really knows, including the Twins. He may prove to be nothing more than a AAAA ballplayer. But he has had a really good season at AAA with fine production. He was excellent in 2023 at AA, and dipped when he reached AAA, though he wasn't bad. 

The arguement shouldn't be "replacing Buxton" IMO. That would seem to imply he'd be as good, or close to, and that's just a fallacy I'd say. But by "replacement" do we mean a solid FILL IN, we'll, he might be if given a chance.

If his defense is actually good, and there are many reports he is, then that's a positive considering Margot and Martin...so far, maybe Martin can improve...haven't done the job. He has some pop and can run and steal bases. Playing good defense and having a 90-ish OPS at the bottom of the order would be more than acceptable as a "fill in" for Buxton in that context.

Since 75% of the ML arms are RH, who cares if Keirsey bats left? Unless your team has a bunch of switch hitters, you're almost always going to have to play 1 or 2 LH bats in just about every game. 

Getting a cup of coffee this late in the season is going to prove little to nothing. Honestly, I think he should have been brought up over a month ago to hopefully improve the defense and get a chance to show what he might be capable of. He isn't some late round pick. He was a 4th round, athletic selection by this FO. He struggled with injuries, missed a year due to covid, and started becoming a real hitter/threat 2 years ago. I've seen too many bad plays in CF from Martin and Margot that, again, I think he should have been up earlier. Or at least when Kepler was pretty much regulated to bench warmer over a week ago.

He may surprise. He may fail. But when you've got a 27 yo at AAA doing a really good job and injuries hit, why on earth don't you take a looksee at what you have in your own backyard? And that's what frustrates me the most.

He should have been up sooner. He should play now to see if you MIGHT have someone who can help now, and possibly next year. You need solid reserves in addition to your starters. Just ignoring someone who might help your ball club because he's older is very short sighted.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I stand corrected on the age...

I can't tell if this is real or sarcasm.  This guy has been passed over time and time again over the last few years.  It took the OF to completely fall apart before he got called up and now isn't getting any PT.

Why am I supposed to see anything other than a fringe 4A player here?

How extensively have you studied him? How much video of his AB and defense?

TFTwins has minor league footage on almost every night and that’s how I got to see and fall in love with Keirsey after extensive exposure.

I trust my judgement after following the Twins and baseball passionately since the 1965 season. I’m a product of my experience, study of baseball history, many thousand tabletop baseball games played using hard righties, opposite righties, hard lefties and opposite lefties and exposure to so many great managers and players through the years. 

Not to mention, exposure to so many wisdom inducing announcers like Maury Wills, Joe Morgan, Herb Carneal, Frank Quilici, Roy Smalley, Justin Morneau, Latroy, Denard, Rod Allen (Tigers), Jack Morris, Paul Splittorf, Ernie Harwell, Al Kaline, George Kell, Tim McCarver, Dick Bremer.

Nobody really knows how Keirsey will do or if the Twins will give him the AB he deserves (LaMonte Wade, Jr., Brent Rooker). I’m just an unabashed fan of DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. :-)

[Larry Janisewski]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:43 AM, chpettit19 said:

I'll note Dashawn is "only" 27, not 28. 

I'm very much glad to see Keirsey getting a shot. That said, I don't have super high hopes for him. If he can be an above average defender and wRC+ 90 I'll be very happy. And I think that's a pretty reasonable goal. I thought he looked quite comfortable in his first few plate appearances. 

The other part about getting a shot is that he actually has to be put on the field. He was called up Thursday. Not super surprising he didn't start game 1, and game 2 was against a lefty so we know he's not allowed in the starting lineup for that one. Started game 3, but didn't play in game 4 despite it being against a righty. Rocco/the Twins chose to DH a slumping Jeffers instead of playing Keirsey. Helman has been up since September 1 and has started 1 game while getting 4 total PAs.

Neither of these guys should be looked at as likely saviors or long term core pieces, but for a team in a death spiral with multiple guys many people feel are running out of gas why are you not playing the hungry, hustle heavy rookies? Helman and Keirsey are both known as guys who go all out all the time. Good athletes who hustle. But instead of putting them out there as a possible spark they've been relegated to defense replacements as the team now plays their games with 3 roster spots going to guys they apparently don't want to be more than defensive subs (Farmer being the other). 

I don't think Keirsey is a stud, but I think he can hold his own and I'd like to see him get a real shot over the next week. Closed door meetings and taking shots at your team through 1 or 2 sentence "press conferences" is all well and good, but how about you try playing the fresh legged rookies and see if they can provide a spark instead of watching your team tank out of the playoffs refusing to get away from who you want to be good?

I agree 100%! I haven't been anti Baldelli up until now. I personally thing the changing of players strictly based on the righty-lefty matchup is part of the problem with the Twins players struggling. Many times a player only gets 1 or 2 AB's and they are pinch hit for. Pick the starting lineup and let them play.

It seems like Baldelli may have lost the locker room.

[twinfan]

Since I had said they should have traded Buxton earlier, I wonder what they might have gotten for him at the deadline or a bit earlier than that. We made no moves and now it is hurting us big time. I'm not one who likes to rent players but we are very wounded and tired and have no one to turn to. Today's game is supposed to be a bullpen game. That's how bad things are. Just pray that those behind us keep losing.

[Eric Blonigen]

43 minutes ago, twinfan said:

Since I had said they should have traded Buxton earlier, I wonder what they might have gotten for him at the deadline or a bit earlier than that. We made no moves and now it is hurting us big time. I'm not one who likes to rent players but we are very wounded and tired and have no one to turn to. Today's game is supposed to be a bullpen game. That's how bad things are. Just pray that those behind us keep losing.

They can’t trade Byron Buxton - he has a no-trade clause. They also likely don’t want to trade him due to the surplus value he brings when healthy. In 90 games this year, just over half the season, he’s been worth 3.3 fWAR, which is valued at around $26M. He’s making $15M. While it’s inconvenient when he’s injured, he’s still one of the three best hitters on the team, and one of the three best defenders as well.

[Blyleven2011]

On 9/9/2024 at 8:01 AM, Karbo said:

He's the best option they have at this point.

Play the kid  , no good to us on the bench  , he hits lefties as good as righties I've heard ...