This Twins Team is Better Than You Think, Part One: The Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

[Eric Blonigen]

This Twins team is better than you think they are, and they deserve to be winning the division. Since starting the season horribly, they have been the best team in baseball for the past four months. But, even beyond the actual record, the Twins have been unlucky--and the Guardians have been quite lucky.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a project called MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter that uses hit dispersal and batted ball data — launch angle, ballpark factors, and exit velocity — to determine expected outcomes for each game. A month and a half ago, Sports Illustrated posted a piece arguing that the Twins should overtake the Guardians atop the division, based on this project. At that time, the Twins were 4.5 games back. Since then, they have narrowed the gap to just two games, with a couple of recent bullpen blowups being the difference between that and being tied.

Fast-forward to this week, and the folks at the Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter posted a season-to-date update. It tells an interesting story.

As you can see, the project looks at both "lucky wins" (where a few bloop hits dropping in with low xBA led to eking out a victory), and "unlucky losses" (where hard-hit balls with high xBA found fielders gloves consistently).

The Twins have been one of the unluckiest teams in baseball; the Royals have had neutral luck; and the Guardians have been luck merchants all season. In 2024, the Guardians have had lucky outcomes in 39 more games than the Twins.

That’s astounding, but tells a pretty compelling story. It suggests that, if anything, the Twins should be several games up on the division. Let’s dig in. 

The Guardians have nearly 40 wins that are considered "lucky" by this model, most in baseball by a double-digit margin. They are consistently getting the key hits when they matter most, piranha-style. They are also not finding "unlucky" losses, with just eight on the season, the fewest in baseball. This is against all odds, and suggests serious regression that should have already occurred, but the "luck" keeps happening.

The Twins, on the other hand, have 23 "unlucky" losses, where their results with runners in scoring position are inexplicably bad despite hitting well overall, and where guys like Trevor Larnach scorch the ball all game and walk away 0-fer. The Twins also have just 14 "lucky" wins. Both of these are among the worst in baseball. 

Here’s one example of an unlucky loss for the Twins. In the Aug. 19 game against the Padres, the Twins lost by two, but based on batted-ball data, the Padres only would have won 17% of the time. In this game, Edouard Julien came to the plate with two on and hit a ball with an .800 xBA that was a likely home run; it found a glove. Had it landed as the odds suggested, the Twins would have won. In the same game, Julien hit another ball with a .730 xBA for an out, and Max Kepler lost a hit with a .720 xBA.

Now, here’s an example of a lucky win for the Guardians on Aug. 14. In this case, the Guardians won 6-1, but they should only have won 36% of the time, based on the game’s batted-ball data. In this game, Cody Bellinger batted with two on. The ball left the bat at 98 MPH on a line-drive launch angle. The ball had an .880 xBA and could have scored two, had the expected outcome occurred. Across the game, the Guardians had 10 batted balls on which luck favored them, against just five for the Cubs.

These are just two of many examples of probabilities suggesting different outcomes, and to the Twins detriment. Overall, the Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter model says the Twins should be comfortably leading the division with just over a month to play. Perhaps they should be on pace for 100 wins. While it’s easy to focus on the negative, it’s important to be clear-eyed when the results suggest that positivity is deserved.

Now, for a few needed caveats. First, "luck" goes by a lot of other names in baseball. What we call "luck" here can also be called "clutch hitting," skeptical though we all might be about the existence of that as a sustainable skill. We might be calling Emmanuel Clase "luck" here; he's a difference-making closer, and just the brightest symbol of a difference-making bullpen that is simply better than the Twins'. Great defense (and especially great defensive positioning, even in the post-shift era) might also be labeled "luck" here; the Guardians play superb defense. Finally, "luck" as seen by this model can really be "using the big part of the field," or whatever other cliché you favor as code for the ability to hit the ball away from defenders or use speed to reach or advance, rather than using power to do so. Exit velocity has become the favored currency for hitting in the modern game, but lighting up Statcast is not the only way to be a good hitter.

You might love the Deserve-to-Win-o-Meter. Then again, you might be disinclined to believe in a new data toy. Check back for the second part as we dig into hard data to see if it draws the same conclusion.

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What do you think about the role luck has played this season? Comment below!

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[Craig Arko]

It would be a mistake to overlook the Royals in this discussion. 

[Eris]

This is an interesting article that well written. Some luck has always been involved in baseball. The Twins have been unlucky with the bases loaded for at least two years. When does this cease to be a discussion about luck and one of hitting approach-a single drives in 2 runs with the bases loaded.

Part of this has been mentioned in the article. A significant issue I have with these metrics is that it assumes the batter has no control over where the ball is hit. I refuse to accept this as reasonable. Maybe we should ask Rod Carew or Luis Arraez. Or maybe we can just observe. Some batters will take an outside pitch and hit it to the opposite field. Joe Mauer was very good at that. Other hitters will take that same pitch and try to pull the ball, grounding it weakly to second.  A batters hitting skill is more than just hitting the ball as hard as possible with optimal launch angle. 
 

I have used this example more than once. Steven Kwan and Trevor Larnach were teammates in college. Trevor Larnach can really mash the ball and he had 2 HR against Sony Gray last night. He was drafted in the first round and has produced 2.4 fWAR during his career to date with 34 HR. Steven Kwan has more nuanced skills, was not a ball masher, was drafted in the 5th round and has 11.7 fWAR with 24 HR during his career so far. 
 

It is really a thrill to see Matt Wallner turn on a ball and hit it 440 feet. But this is only one part of hitting. 

[Fatbat]

Cleveland is having their luck run out. They will finish 3rd in the central. 

[thelanges5]

Twins keep can’t keep losing games like they did today. That’s not luck. That’s poor play offense and defense. 

[Schmoeman5]

At the end of the season, if the Twins should find themselves behind Cleveland and KC can the Twins submit the LUCK data to the MLB office to overturn the actual results? If not. This should be addressed at the winter meetings. Love the Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter though. 

[killebrewlover]

Interesting article and concept.  But what's the old adage, "You make your own luck."   I don't believe in being "lucky".  But I do believe there are moments that make it appear a team or player or situation could be viewed as being "unlucky".

All that aside.  The Twins are just not good enough this year.  Period.  They're competitive yes.  But their streakiness (is that a word?) says volumes about the core inconsistencies of this team.  They can win 3 out of 4 on the road one week.  And then follow that up by losing their next 4 out of 6 (and 2 out of 3 to a sub-500 team... at home.).

Cleveland may not win the division.  But the Twins certainly won't.  I like KC's chances and they have a VERY good team.  Good enough!

And IMHO, if they don't trade away Buxton in the off season for someone who can contribute and stay healthy for more than half the season, then the front office is smoking something (can I have some of that!).  And for that matter, same with Correa.

'Nough said.

[S Bart]

Rocco needs to take a hard look at what is best for the team. Julian made a bad throw to Santana the other day, has bobbled the ball several times recently, and now makes a grave mistake that cost the Twins a game. Simply put, they should not play him the rest of the year in that position and move him back to St. Paul. Yes, Buxton is a good player when he is healthy but "resting him" every other day is ridiculous at this point in the season.  Farmer is a nice guy, but he has a .192 average and continues to play on a regular basis. Correa has planter faucitis which can reoccur every season.  A person can at least bat in this situation. I played with it during my fastpitch softball days. The team has reached the brink and smart strategy, and thought-out decisions will need to be made. If not, the team will not make the playoffs. If they do not succeed, Baldelli returning for 2025 needs to be evaluated.

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting article but I don't believe in luck. The way they figure luck IMO is ridiculous.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, killebrewlover said:

And IMHO, if they don't trade away Buxton in the off season for someone who can contribute and stay healthy for more than half the season, then the front office is smoking something (can I have some of that!).  And for that matter, same with Correa.

Both Buxton and Correa have complete no trade contracts. You (or others) may think it a good idea or a feasible plan to trade these players, but the Twins cannot due to MLB guaranteed contracts. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

I enjoyed reading the article.  Interesting to try to quantify the intangibles that spread out the results.  

One thing to note:  Atlanta is coming to town.  Take a look at where they land on the graph.

[Whitey333]

Article is interesting but full of bs.  It's too convenient to blame every loss on bad luck.  That sounds like a Rocco/Front Office new metric for trying to deflect blame for their own strange decisions.  Also players with no trade contracts can be traded.  All the team has to do is negotiate with the player to waive their no trade clause.  Sometimes a star player is willing to do that with a chance to move to a better organization.  It's been done before.  Of course why would Buxton and Correa want to do that when they can live comfortably on the injury list while their teammates are trying to win a playoff spot.  

[Road trip]

Sometimes luck is as simple as NOT using Farmer to pinch-hit for Wallner.  Oh wait, that's not luck, it's competent managing of the in-game situation.

But overall an interesting article.  Cleveland does appear to be lucky, but sometimes you have to make your own luck.

[joefish]

And none of this matters at the end of the day. 

If only we could use this.

[killebrewlover]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Both Buxton and Correa have complete no trade contracts. You (or others) may think it a good idea or a feasible plan to trade these players, but the Twins cannot due to MLB guaranteed contracts. 

Well in that case, I guess the Twins get what they deserve.  Huh.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, killebrewlover said:

Well in that case, I guess the Twins get what they deserve.  Huh.

Yup, pretty much that.

[USAFChief]

A team batting Kyle Farmer 5th isn't better than I think.