Randy Dobnak Has Earned His Way Back

[arby58]

13 hours ago, sun said:

Damn the bureaucrats & red tape.

Randy! Randy! Randy!

He's the type that can beat the Yankees.

He's done his oart, now it's up to the FO to do theirs.

He's a late bloomer, so what?

He pitched against the Yankees in the play-offs before - went 2 innings and gave up 4 runs, for a post-season ERA of 18.00.

[Whitey333]

He definitely deserves a chance.  

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Dobbie has merited his chance to ascended to MLB again in this recent decent run. IMO the Twins no longer see him as a long-term addition. So to put him back on the roster, only to DFA him & possibly lose him while still on the hook. Many teams could use him long-term including the Twins, so if the Twins aren't going to bring him up they should actively shop him. Yet again they might bring him up & claim that he is as good as any trade deal.

If they were to create a 40 man spot for him, the post says he still has 2 options left, so no risk of needing to DFA him. At least that’s my understanding…………seems to be worth serious consideration to help somebody skip a start in August/September. Finding a 40 man spot seems to be the challenge! He could be an add with Roster expansion in September to help with a couple spot starts?

[nclahammer]

It's hard not to cheer for the guy.

[Vanimal46]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You don't think an MLB team would take this ultra team friendly contract on?
2024 - $2.25MM 
2025 - $3.00MM
2026 - $6.00MM Club Option
2027 - $7.00MM Club Option
2028 - $8.50MM Club Option

If Dobnak were recalled and added to the 40 man roster and he pitched well in his start, I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it through waivers after the season he's had. There are middle relievers making that kind of bank. If Dobnak can manage being a back end rotation arm by keeping his ERA in the 4.50 range, he'd be at least a $10MM AAV. Kyle Gibson got $13MM this past offseason and even Sean Manea got $14MM AAV on a 2 year deal.

If that’s the case we should trade him right now. Because he’s been a sunk cost for our organization since 2021. 

[LambchoP]

Why not move Funderburk or Kiriloff to the 60 day IL and give Randy a roster spot. Depending on how Festa does against the Mets on Tuesday maybe there will be a spot start or two available if Festa doesn't look ready. You can never have too much pitching. On the other hand, if any other teams are interested, we could package him with a more highly touted prospect to get something back that we need, like a good lefty for the Bullpen. After watching Okert and Stewart blow the game last night I think we need to upgrade the bullpen more than the rotation right now...

[Doctor Gast]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they were to create a 40 man spot for him, the post says he still has 2 options left, so no risk of needing to DFA him. At least that’s my understanding…………seems to be worth serious consideration to help somebody skip a start in August/September. Finding a 40 man spot seems to be the challenge! He could be an add with Roster expansion in September to help with a couple spot starts?

I thought he was put thru waivers when he was taken off the 40-man but I could be wrong. I hope you are right.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

If that’s the case we should trade him right now. Because he’s been a sunk cost for our organization since 2021. 

I don't have any problems with trading him if the Twins won't use him, though I would prefer the Twins trading 2 starters out of the rotation this offseason so Dobnak is good depth. MLB teams might want to get that peek at Dobnak at the MLB level before they'd be interested though. It's a real interesting scenario. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Having Dobnak on this run, Festa showing well against Philly, and Matthews’ great performance this year on his way up the chain should eliminate the need to trade for a back end innings eater fifth starter mediocre veteran type. We can fill that role through these three guys and who knows, maybe Varland will find it again, too. Alll of this is a real step forward 
 

That doesn’t mean we don’t need another starting pitcher. We do if only to improve our trajectory and give us a chance to win the division. Winning the division and getting the second seed is a possibility this year and we should go for hard since that makes the playoff run much, much easier. It gets us a bye and probably keeps us away from the Yankees in the second round. I hope We are competing for Anderson or even Kikuchi to upgrade the rotation with a middle of the rotation type guy. If we can’t do at least that well, there’s no point in trading for a veteran starter just to eat innings on the backend. Dobnak and Festa (probably as a bulk after an opener) can do that, And Matthews and even Caleb Bousley, can you give us a starter two down the stretch.

Count me in on the “trade for a starter with at least Ober level performance or don’t trade for one at all” train. I might amend that to the “Ryan level” since frankly, Ober has been better than Ryan for the last month or so.

Agreed on Ober - since first start of the year v. Royals his ERA is 3.40 …….strikes guys out and doesn’t walk many. Very solid!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Why not move Funderburk or Kiriloff to the 60 day IL and give Randy a roster spot...

I think Funderburk and Kirilloff could both be activated a couple weeks before the 60 day time period, and artificially forcing players onto the 60 day IL gets the MLBPA worked up. Since MLB has started to crack down on Phantom IL stuff, it's risky as well.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Why not move Funderburk or Kiriloff to the 60 day IL and give Randy a roster spot. Depending on how Festa does against the Mets on Tuesday maybe there will be a spot start or two available if Festa doesn't look ready. You can never have too much pitching. On the other hand, if any other teams are interested, we could package him with a more highly touted prospect to get something back that we need, like a good lefty for the Bullpen. After watching Okert and Stewart blow the game last night I think we need to upgrade the bullpen more than the rotation right now...

They didn’t look good in relief - for sure. Can’t win with 2 runs in the first inning though….,the offense blew it for 8 innings.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I thought he was put thru waivers when he was taken off the 40-man but I could be wrong. I hope you are right.

You are right - I misunderstood what is above……I saw “options” and jumped to conclusion. TEAM has Options for 2 years to extend him past ‘25 …. quite a bit different than what I thought I read. My bad.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

You are right - I misunderstood what is above……I saw “options” and jumped to conclusion. TEAM has Options for 2 years to extend him past ‘25 …. quite a bit different than what I thought I read. My bad.

Fangraphs shows Randy Dobnak has 3 MiLB options remaining. He got a 4th option year since he accrued so little time.

[KBJ1]

If he has found a way to pitch this effectively there is no reason he shouldn't be brought up.

We need a #5 starter, period. We don't have one now and won't make the playoffs without one. I would like to see us go after Kikuchi simply because he is a lefty and could slot into the bullpen for the playoffs, but barring that, Dobnak is the best in house option right now.

[jjswol]

Deserves a chance for sure.

 

[DJL44]

On 7/27/2024 at 2:53 PM, Parfigliano said:

I disagree

You think the Twins want to pay another $4M to a pitcher they don't think is worth playing in the major leagues?

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

You think the Twins want to pay another $4M to a pitcher they don't think is worth playing in the major leagues?

I would guess most contending teams have a late 20s early 30s guy in AAA they could give a spot start to. Difference being for us is Dobnak is guaranteed $3 million next year. If any team called showing interest in him he’d be gone instantly. 

[sun]

IMO the majority of fans want him to succeed with the Twins. Now that he's approaching his prime, he deserves a chance. If the Twins trade him it will be a missed opportunity because thier investment appears to be panning out. I'll bet that Randy has a big chip on his shoulder & believes that he has something to prove, & that is that he belongs in the bigs. IMO he's not a fluke.

[twinfan]

America loves the type of story that Dobnack has had. I'd like to see him get a shot but it will probably be with another team at this point. I just don't see him pitching for us this year. Now maybe if we lose a free agent or 2 from the pitching staff plus a spring training injury next year.......

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Fangraphs shows Randy Dobnak has 3 MiLB options remaining. He got a 4th option year since he accrued so little time.

Great to know - thanks!!

[darin617]

On 7/27/2024 at 10:30 PM, bean5302 said:

You don't think an MLB team would take this ultra team friendly contract on?
2024 - $2.25MM 
2025 - $3.00MM
2026 - $6.00MM Club Option
2027 - $7.00MM Club Option
2028 - $8.50MM Club Option

If Dobnak were recalled and added to the 40 man roster and he pitched well in his start, I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it through waivers after the season he's had. There are middle relievers making that kind of bank. If Dobnak can manage being a back end rotation arm by keeping his ERA in the 4.50 range, he'd be at least a $10MM AAV. Kyle Gibson got $13MM this past offseason and even Sean Manea got $14MM AAV on a 2 year deal.

You forgot to add the buyouts on the years. No buyout in 2025, 2026 1M buyout, 2027 100K, 2028 100K.

So basically the first day they can buy him out in 2026 they cut him a check and he drives off into the sunset. He will be happy and we know he's smart with the money.

[darin617]

Dobnak was a good story and I wish he could make it back to the majors. He is putting up decent numbers for St Paul. It's a whole different ball game in the majors. Unless he can come up with some new pitch he is stuck in AAA. He can't blow hitters away and in the majors they would pick him apart.

 

[howeda7]

Calling up Dobnak is just like making a trade. 

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Calling up Dobnak is just like making a trade. 

Yes, it would be like making a bad trade.

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, darin617 said:

You forgot to add the buyouts on the years. No buyout in 2025, 2026 1M buyout, 2027 100K, 2028 100K.

So basically the first day they can buy him out in 2026 they cut him a check and he drives off into the sunset. He will be happy and we know he's smart with the money.

In the interest of technical accuracy, I will assume you are correct. I'm not even going to look it up though, since I don't think there is a single team in baseball worried about a $1MM buyout, LOL.

[Craig Arko]

It sounds like he has, indeed.

[USAFChief]

Sad news.

[darin617]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

In the interest of technical accuracy, I will assume you are correct. I'm not even going to look it up though, since I don't think there is a single team in baseball worried about a $1MM buyout, LOL.

Why would any team pay a player 5 million if they are still in the minors when they can pay just 1 million to save 4 million.

[bean5302]

59 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Why would any team pay a player 5 million if they are still in the minors when they can pay just 1 million to save 4 million.

1. Dobnak isn't in the minors.
2. $750k left on the books for 2024 ($2.25MM).
3. $3MM in 2025.

Are you talking about the sum of two years' salary? I honestly don't know where you're going with this. Are you assuming
1. the Twins will DFA Dobnak when he has 3 options remaining, and that
2. Dobnak will then clear waivers, and that
3. after he clears waivers only 1 team in MLB would be willing to offer Dobnak even a MiLB contract so
4. that one hypothetical team who wants Dobnak is guaranteed to get him at league minimum?

I'd say there are a lot of ifs, some less and some more plausible than others. 

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

1. Dobnak isn't in the minors.
2. $750k left on the books for 2024 ($2.25MM).
3. $3MM in 2025.

Are you talking about the sum of two years' salary? I honestly don't know where you're going with this. Are you assuming
1. the Twins will DFA Dobnak when he has 3 options remaining, and that
2. Dobnak will then clear waivers, and that
3. after he clears waivers only 1 team in MLB would be willing to offer Dobnak even a MiLB contract so
4. that one hypothetical team who wants Dobnak is guaranteed to get him at league minimum?

I'd say there are a lot of ifs, some less and some more plausible than others. 

1. Yes. He was DFA’d before and they will do it again when the opportunity presents itself.

2. Probably. If anyone wants to claim him and take on his guaranteed money, God bless them. 

3. If he clears waivers, he’ll go back to St. Paul. 

I have no problem giving him a spot start. We have played worse pitchers in recent years. Festa is establishing himself and I’m continuing to give him chances over Dobnak.