Twins Trade Deadline: The Bailey Ober Threshold

[MABB1959]

Questions:

• They did not have a TV contract at the beginning of the season so the lowered or set a lower payroll cap?
• They got the TV deal but did not increase payroll.
• They need to increase payroll to have a chance at a better starter?
• If they won't spend, should they trade a good prospect?

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

He doesn't quack like an ace anymore. His five quality innings against Chicago were painful to watch. No playoff team's batting order will remotely resemble the White Sox but at the end of the day, 2 ER is alright by me no matter how it was gotten.

He may not quack like an ace today but one thing we should always remember:  Things change fast.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Flaherty had 9 straight solid starts until June 27 when he gave up 5 runs……..hasn’t pitched since, through yesterday. Must have some injury? Fedde would apparently be ecstatic to get out of Chicago. He’s affordable through next year.

Flaherty beat the Guardians last night, went 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 earned run. Doesn't sound like he is injured.

[Jeff K]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I understand Ober as a functional scale, no sense getting someone "below" him, however you define that.

I can also follow @ashbury that maybe you set your sites lower, if necessary, and STILL add someone solid for depth options if nothing else.

But I do have to question any idea that Ober isn't a playoff caliber starter. As of this day, his ERA is about .75 higher than 2023, however, it's actually lower than last year over his last 7 appearances. Further, he's on pace for more IP than last season, with a slightly higher K per 9, but slightly higher BB per 9 and WHIP. His AVG, OB%, and  ABIP are slightly lower than 2023, but his SLG% is slightly higher. If WINS are a statistic you like to use as a measuring stick, he's already equalled last year.

All this to say Ober was very good in 2023. His numbers are very, very comparable to last season, with a couple very close ups and downs. If the guy never had to face the Royals his numbers would be even better. WOOF! 

I think he's a legitimate, quality #3 starter. So to me, he's already a playoff  caliber starter. I don't know how you can do better unless you give up an awful lot for a rental, hut I guess if you DID find someone better, you'd have a hell of a potential 1-4.

That's how i see it as well.  Unless things change (which of course they can/will), the Twins top 3 starters look like good playoff starters.  I agree with the premise that the Twins need another playoff worthy starter, but I don't feel like that starter needs to be better than Ober as the cost is likely prohibitive.  What's funny is that it seems like the general consensus before the season started is that the Twins were one good starter from having a playoff competitive team.  Seemingly, that remains the case.  Stewart, Paddock and Varland likely bolster the pen and the hitting just needs to avoid injuries!

[Patzky]

40 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

He may not quack like an ace today but one thing we should always remember:  Things change fast.

His game in Oakland. Showed the upside that can pop up at any given time.

[Patzky]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Flaherty beat the Guardians last night, went 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 earned run. Doesn't sound like he is injured.

I love a guy who can 'beat the Guardians.'

[JYTwinsFan]

I like the idea of adding Eflin or Eovaldi due to their general consistency & experience and they are the most realistic targets discussed. And those of us who watch Ober know he's not a shutdown guy. But are we not giving him enough credit? Help me understand why Eflin and Eovaldi surpass the Ober threshold ("better than Bailey Ober" per the article)?

ERA / FIP / Kper9 / WHIP

Ober: 4.14 / 3.94 / 9.5 / 1.08

Eflin: 3.99 / 3.96 / 7.1 / 1.11

Eovaldi: 3.10 / 3.74 / 8.8. / 1.03

I see these guys as significantly helping the playoff run and attempt to push past the Guardians. But once we're in the playoffs they seem like tossups with Ober for who gets a playoff start based mostly on matchups and who is hot. I raise this because they Twins should not overpay for these two based on the idea it will improve playoff odds for a Game 3 at an individual pitcher level. Overall they'd provide depth during the lead up and potential options going into playoffs, which has value and can increase odds overall, I suppose. Am I missing something?

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

That probably won't be popular on this site, but it's definitely not a completely crazy trade proposal from both sides.  Talk about a true "challenge" trade.  A great year for each of them is Cy Young and MVP, respectively.  Do you trade one for the other?

So, if you can get 138 games from Lewis and he’s in the MVP conversation, is there any question that there’s more value with him v. a Skubal in Cy Young consideration having a 3.10 ERA over 32 starts?

Over recent history of last couple decades, what’s more valuable year to year going forward…….maybe not valuable, more repeatable of similar performance going forward?

I’d take the bat every time…….. potentially involved in affecting 115 more games per season. So the bat maybe only has 60 impact games relative to outcome. The pitcher may have a positive affect 25 of 32 starts. To me, seems the scale tips to the bat.

I guess if this is considered outside of fantasy baseball realm, would the Twins trade Lewis? To me, there’s zero chance of that happening unless he’s still hurt repeatedly in a couple years….,,way too talented to walk away from.

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, JYTwinsFan said:

I like the idea of adding Eflin or Eovaldi due to their general consistency & experience and they are the most realistic targets discussed. And those of us who watch Ober know he's not a shutdown guy. But are we not giving him enough credit? Help me understand why Eflin and Eovaldi surpass the Ober threshold ("better than Bailey Ober" per the article)?

ERA / FIP / Kper9 / WHIP

Ober: 4.14 / 3.94 / 9.5 / 1.08

Eflin: 3.99 / 3.96 / 7.1 / 1.11

Eovaldi: 3.10 / 3.74 / 8.8. / 1.03

I see these guys as significantly helping the playoff run and attempt to push past the Guardians. But once we're in the playoffs they seem like tossups with Ober for who gets a playoff start based mostly on matchups and who is hot. I raise this because they Twins should not overpay for these two based on the idea it will improve playoff odds for a Game 3 at an individual pitcher level. Overall they'd provide depth during the lead up and potential options going into playoffs, which has value and can increase odds overall, I suppose. Am I missing something?

I don’t know Eflin?

Eovaldi is playoff tested & playoff successful ……a 3.10 ERA is outstanding. Bad news is Texas won’t sell, arguably, their best pitcher and a guy that was key to their success in post season just last year. They get two other pitchers back in next 3-4 weeks …..,they have a pedigree (underperforming) of good offense! The Mariners scored 11 last night & may not score 2 more runs the rest of the weekend……meaning, they can be caught! Texas has money and are going to be confident well through the deadline, IMO.

Lorenzen - maybe? Not better than Ober but serviceable to get SWR some rest and then as a potential bullpen guy through October…..very reasonable insurance piece.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, if you can get 138 games from Lewis and he’s in the MVP conversation, is there any question that there’s more value with him v. a Skubal in Cy Young consideration having a 3.10 ERA over 32 starts?

Over recent history of last couple decades, what’s more valuable year to year going forward…….maybe not valuable, more repeatable of similar performance going forward?

I’d take the bat every time…….. potentially involved in affecting 115 more games per season. So the bat maybe only has 60 impact games relative to outcome. The pitcher may have a positive affect 25 of 32 starts. To me, seems the scale tips to the bat.

I guess if this is considered outside of fantasy baseball realm, would the Twins trade Lewis? To me, there’s zero chance of that happening unless he’s still hurt repeatedly in a couple years….,,way too talented to walk away from.

You are probably correct in that the Twins wouldn’t consider trading Lewis, but I think the decision would be a tough one if it were on the table.  I agree that a hitter is more likely to repeat his performance, but I would also argue that bats are easier to come by than starting pitchers.

For either of these players to reach their potential, ongoing health is essential.  Who do you think is more likely to be that way?  I’m not sure, but it’s hard to bet on a pitcher of any type or a player who has been injured as much as Lewis over the past few years.  There is also the question of team control over the player, with Lewis having more time until free agency.  

I’m not sure what I would do, but I definitely think it is an intriguing question.

[LambchoP]

Barring injuries, our lineup is fine. Maybe try to trade Farmer Margot and possibly Santana for some prospects. Bullpen should be solid if we can trade for a lefty reliever. I do think we need a playoff caliber starter to take the place of Paddack or SWR. Eovaldi would be great, Flaherty or maybe Fedde, if they'd be willing to trade with us in the division. I highly doubt we spend the farm on someone like Crochet or take on any large contracts...

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

I think that's just another way of taking issue with the OP's position that the top three are nice and neat, Lopez/Ryan/Ober.  I brought up the notion that 4 is a pretty nice number rather than 3, and you suggest the ordering itself could be different.

It's never bad to improve the talent level, whether or not it meets some arbitrary threshold that could fail to even be relevant three months from now - of course assuming the cost is not beyond what the FO can face paying. Always be improving, and the trade deadline is a classic moment to do that.

An Ober threshold or a SWR threshold or a Paddack threshold, any of these is potentially useful as a metric.  Focusing on any single one of these is too static and could be counterproductive for being prepared for multiple scenarios.

I wasn't disagreeing with you or the OP. I was agreeing with the sentiment no starter who isn't worthy of being a top 3 on a playoff team should be added to our roster. I also added a reference as to what happens in the event of a longer playoff series where a #4 comes into the picture and how important that #4 be a borderline playoff starter really is in terms of being competitive.

[nddan67]

We all know a good starter and reliever would be a big plus.  Just not sure Falvine will pull the trigger on big trade.

 

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Barring injuries, our lineup is fine. Maybe try to trade Farmer Margot and possibly Santana for some prospects. Bullpen should be solid if we can trade for a lefty reliever. I do think we need a playoff caliber starter to take the place of Paddack or SWR. Eovaldi would be great, Flaherty or maybe Fedde, if they'd be willing to trade with us in the division. I highly doubt we spend the farm on someone like Crochet or take on any large contracts...

If you and I keep saying Fedde enough maybe the PTB will make it so.

 

Fedde Fedde..

[USAFChief]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, if people are really focused on adding a good starting pitcher we could always ask Detroit if Lewis for Skubel works. Is that a pitcher folks are interested in adding?

How about Walker Jenkins for Skubal?

[Shaitan]

15 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

Don't like Festa being lumped in there.   SWR was not good his first few chances.  Festa could go either way but seems to have what it takes (other than experience) 

Agreed, but he needs seasoning. I like him at SP7 right now. Spot starts and gaining experience. Berrios was also pretty had that first September.

[Cap'n Piranha]

The conversation here all seems to ignore one immensely pertinent fact; a trade being consummated is likely not up to Falvey, but to the Pohlads.  A simple look at the Twins multi-year payroll shows they already have $117M committed for next year--only $11M below 2024.  While that $117M does include options that will surely be declined ($12M on Margot, $6.25M on Farmer), that still leaves the Twins at about $99M BEFORE arb figures are determined for Jeffers, Kiriloff, Castro, Lewis, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Topa, Okert, Stewart, Jax, and Duran.  I can see the FO potentially non-tendering Kiriloff, Topa, and Okert, but that still leaves 9 players left to get raises.

In 2024, those 9 players are making $10.3M; if you assume $2M raises for each of those guys, that means you're paying them $28.3M, pushing the payroll to identical to this year's number.  It is clearly obvious that unless the Pohlads are willing to spend (which I doubt), Falvey will not be allowed to add payroll commitments without offloading salary.  The only ways to do that currently are trading Vazquez (probably not happening without eating so much of his salary that it's not really worth it), Correa, Buxton, or Lopez; none of the latter 3 either will or should be traded.

As such, the Twins only option is to acquire players in pre-arb status, and any player who moves the needle come playoff time who is also pre-arb will cost a king's ransom in prospects--the very prospects the Twins will need to remain competitive in 2025-2027, meaning any impact trade in 2024 is very likely  closing the Twins window for 2026/2027, barring significant increases in spending.  I for one don't think the current roster is worthy of essentially going all-in, and my guess is that come August, we will see that Falvine didn't think so either.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

How about Walker Jenkins for Skubal?

Not enough.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, if you can get 138 games from Lewis and he’s in the MVP conversation, is there any question that there’s more value with him v. a Skubal in Cy Young consideration having a 3.10 ERA over 32 starts?

Over recent history of last couple decades, what’s more valuable year to year going forward…….maybe not valuable, more repeatable of similar performance going forward?

I’d take the bat every time…….. potentially involved in affecting 115 more games per season. So the bat maybe only has 60 impact games relative to outcome. The pitcher may have a positive affect 25 of 32 starts. To me, seems the scale tips to the bat.

I guess if this is considered outside of fantasy baseball realm, would the Twins trade Lewis? To me, there’s zero chance of that happening unless he’s still hurt repeatedly in a couple years….,,way too talented to walk away from.

I don't believe the Twins would consider trading Lewis. The idea was to show the cost of a really good starting pitcher (Tarik Skubel) and get people to write who goes the other way in the moves/additions that are being suggested. It isn't really fair to say we will trade a couple of AA players below our top prospects for a reliable starting pitcher.

On a calmer note, Lewis as an MVP candidate for a season is an extremely long shot. I could see him getting hot in a playoff series. 138 games would have been a low barrier at one time but it is hard to see Royce Lewis reaching that for a few years. In parts of 3 seasons Lewis has appeared in 94 games and had 379 PA for an average of 31.3 games and 126 PA per year. We all hope Royce can play a full year or even 130 games but nobody is taking that bet at this time.

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Not enough.

For which team? 

[old nurse]

What is the goal for the team? A realistic one. Is it to just make the playoffs? If that is the case maybe upgrading the fourth starter is the answer. Win the wild card round? The fourth starter won’t help there so maybe the OP is correct.. Challenge for the division to avoid the wild card round? Maybe a 2 is in over A better chance to actually do something in the playoffs. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/12/2024 at 8:47 AM, Patzky said:

I love a guy who can 'beat the Guardians.'

Me too - as of Saturday morning they are 6-10 over last sixteen. Hopefully they will continue to level out for a bit.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I don't believe the Twins would consider trading Lewis. The idea was to show the cost of a really good starting pitcher (Tarik Skubel) and get people to write who goes the other way in the moves/additions that are being suggested. It isn't really fair to say we will trade a couple of AA players below our top prospects for a reliable starting pitcher.

On a calmer note, Lewis as an MVP candidate for a season is an extremely long shot. I could see him getting hot in a playoff series. 138 games would have been a low barrier at one time but it is hard to see Royce Lewis reaching that for a few years. In parts of 3 seasons Lewis has appeared in 94 games and had 379 PA for an average of 31.3 games and 126 PA per year. We all hope Royce can play a full year or even 130 games but nobody is taking that bet at this time.

 

I realize he’s been hurt way too much ……. “prospects” or potential stars are always subjective, I think that all around baseball he’s taken the subjectivity away. His only (it is serious) fault is a lack of staying healthy, which, I think a number of Teams would be willing to roll the dice on while giving a significant return. Nobody would try to trade him though if health wasn’t the issue they were trying to escape.

I keep him and try to figure out how to keep him in the line-up. It’s not clear or they’d have done it already…….he’s something else when on the field.

Per your comment, it will take serious compensation from the Twins for a decent arm!

A package of Severino - Keaschall - Kirilloff could net a solid return, I would think? Obviously, it’s impossible to know what other clubs are interested in so it’s pretty difficult to identify trade package……always guesswork. 

Severino’s a guy that seems MLB ready with bat - Keaschall rates as a high end prospect - Kirilloff is a guy that has shown flashes of better than average MLB hitter…..2023 stats illustrate that. Am I in the area with trade capital?

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The conversation here all seems to ignore one immensely pertinent fact; a trade being consummated is likely not up to Falvey, but to the Pohlads.  A simple look at the Twins multi-year payroll shows they already have $117M committed for next year--only $11M below 2024.  While that $117M does include options that will surely be declined ($12M on Margot, $6.25M on Farmer), that still leaves the Twins at about $99M BEFORE arb figures are determined for Jeffers, Kiriloff, Castro, Lewis, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Topa, Okert, Stewart, Jax, and Duran.  I can see the FO potentially non-tendering Kiriloff, Topa, and Okert, but that still leaves 9 players left to get raises.

In 2024, those 9 players are making $10.3M; if you assume $2M raises for each of those guys, that means you're paying them $28.3M, pushing the payroll to identical to this year's number.  It is clearly obvious that unless the Pohlads are willing to spend (which I doubt), Falvey will not be allowed to add payroll commitments without offloading salary.  The only ways to do that currently are trading Vazquez (probably not happening without eating so much of his salary that it's not really worth it), Correa, Buxton, or Lopez; none of the latter 3 either will or should be traded.

As such, the Twins only option is to acquire players in pre-arb status, and any player who moves the needle come playoff time who is also pre-arb will cost a king's ransom in prospects--the very prospects the Twins will need to remain competitive in 2025-2027, meaning any impact trade in 2024 is very likely  closing the Twins window for 2026/2027, barring significant increases in spending.  I for one don't think the current roster is worthy of essentially going all-in, and my guess is that come August, we will see that Falvine didn't think so either.

You have obviously looked into the numbers further than I’m willing to this morning, but I must pose a question. If Farmer-Margot-Thielbar-Kepler-Santana are all gone (assuming 2024 payroll is at $124M?) it seems pre-arb total (am unaware, Lopez may get a few million raise?) would be closer to $93M - maybe I’m off somewhere?

Anyway, I get your point. Does everyone here think the Pohlad’s will force the 2021 equivalent payroll total again in 2025? I’m removed from the Twin Cities buzz daily on what the conversation may be regarding excuses/rationalizations for not spending. Seems $135-$140 would be more commensurate with their market size, etc for 2025……I get what I or anybody thinks or hopes for doesn’t matter a bit.

Is the strategy forward hunting guys like Lugo - Flaherty - etc. on the back end of their perceived value for $12M per year and trade LOPEZ to free up $10M? I don’t see how a FO puts a club together without potentially moving a Correa (type of salary) with a $125M payroll. I do not want to even suggest moving on from Correa but objectively, with a tight budget, it seems rolling the dice with an infield corp of Lewis-Lee-Martin-Julien-Castro-Miranda-Severino may need to be considered. Gotta have pitching and can’t be losing arms in arbitration years due to budget.

If the real goal is to WIN it all, and to capitalize on the Correa & Buxton investments, the Team can’t go 70% of the way on the pitching staff (or arbitration players) spending.

The best answer is to get back to near the 2023 budget and move forward - obviously.

 

All that said, Montgomery - Snell - Maeda and probably a handful of other TD “must sign” candidates from the last offseason are not having years (their results) anyone would want at nearly any price………reinforces the risk with spending big on arms…….I was begging for a trade to get Devin Williams to make the PEN bulletproof and he hasn’t thrown an inning ….,risk, always the rationalization for not spending.

[TopGunn#22]

Because the Pohlad's own the team, money will always be tight.  They will spend from time to time but never for an extended length of time.  If the topic is improving our starting pitching significantly at little cost, there is only one guy our there who can deliver on BOTH of those criteria.  He's been discussed before.

If we were to make a trade, I agree with the "Ober Principal" in that, if we're going to acquire someone, he not only needs to be better than Paddack, he must at minimum meet what Ober provides and better yet, exceed it.  That is the only way we get better in our rotation.

Adding fringe guys to our rotation like Shoemaker, Happ, DeSclafani and the like never have and never will have a positive impact.  The Twins will only tread water with guys like this.  They won't reach the beach.  

The bullpen could improve quite a bit if Stewart and Topa enter the mix and Varland moves into a BP role..  Especially if Stewart picks up where he left off.  The rotation is NOT going to improve if the twins do nothing.  We are expecting Lopez and Ryan to pitch like Aces.  Last night, Ryan fell far short of that.  We have shaved a decent amount of Cleveland's lead as we get ready to head into the All Star break, but I predict we won't catch them unless we give our rotation a shot in the arm.