Moving Louie Varland to the Bullpen Isn’t Straightforward

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins sent Louie Varland back to St. Paul after he began the season as the fifth starter in their rotation. A year ago, he made a late-season transition to the bullpen and flourished in that spot. With mixed results at Triple-A, is it worth considering making him a relief weapon again?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Any conversation about moving Louie Varland back to the bullpen is a multi-faceted discussion for the Minnesota Twins. The fact that he pitched well in relief late last season is not reason enough, on its own, to go down that path in 2024. It is worth discussing, but Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli would need to make a pair of separate decisions.

Is there Enough Starting Pitcher Depth to Sustain Moving Varland to the Bullpen?
Entering the regular season, it was supposed to be Anthony DeSclafani who would take the fifth and final rotation spot. He never pitched, and that meant Varland never went to Triple-A. The Twins needed to add a solid frontline starter this offseason, but hamstrung by ownership’s decision not to spend, they couldn't find a suitable target.

When DeSclafani was thrown into the Jorge Polanco trade, his addition created depth in the form of both Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson being available at Triple-A St. Paul. After Varland made four turns to the tune of a 9.18 ERA, it was Woods Richardson’s turn to take over. He has been fine, but it's hard to fully trust that yet. With Chris Paddack also struggling recently, it’s worth wondering how long until Baldelli will need to make another change in the group.

Right now, Varland might not be the top depth piece. That would be top pitching prospect David Festa, but expecting him to earn a promotion and immediately stick is probably shortsighted. Young players need an opportunity to find their footing, and that often includes some struggles along the way. Beyond Festa, there is some combination of Caleb Boushley, Randy Dobnak, or Adam Plutko to look at. Brent Headrick remains on the 60-day injured list with a forearm strain, and may be done for the year. Boushley, Festa, and Varland all have an inside track, with a spot already on the 40-man roster. Simeon Woods Richardson also had a 6.08 ERA prior to his promotion, so the surface numbers don't tell the entire story.

Varland also came back against the Colorado Rockies in a spot start on Tuesday night and looked strong. Throwing five innings of one-run baseball while striking out three, he gave the Twins everything they could have hoped for out of him. Of course, the lineup he was facing allowed for a soft landing spot, but his execution was top-notch. Pouring in 42 of 63 pitches for strikes, he was both efficient and effective.

In short, the depth at Triple-A isn’t exactly inspiring, and without Festa immediately arriving, taking Varland from the group is nerve-wracking, even though he isn’t pitching well. It’s a problem that was created this offseason, and now it’s rearing its head.

Can Varland Be Better in the Bullpen?
Of course, the short answer here is yes. We saw that last season. The caveat is that it also should include the disclaimer that he would not be in this shape. It’s not just that Varland has struggled as a starter, but also that the stuff doesn’t play in the current form. When with the Twins earlier this year, Varland found himself grooving way too many middle-middle pitches, and that’s not a location that will work in any role.

While he owns a 5.31 ERA at Triple-A, the numbers say he is due for positive regression as evidenced by a 3.71 FIP and 3.58 xFIP. His walk rate and strikeout rate have returned to a mark more consistent with 2023, and he’s getting a lot of ground balls. Some of that positive momentum was seen while he occupied the bump for Minnesota on Tuesday.

The Twins have tinkered with Varland’s pitch mix, and it has made him much less effective. Taking a chunk of his fastball usage away, and drastically reducing his slider usage in favor of a cutter, the offerings aren’t there to get everyone out. It wasn’t as though the slider was a particularly effective pitch for Varland, but the cutter hasn’t worked at all. Before the demotion, opposing hitters spit on his stuff outside the zone and chased a terribly low 21% of the time. It essentially halved his whiff rate, as well, bringing it down to 7%.

If a move back to the bullpen is made, then it probably comes in the form of reshaping the slider but going back to that mix. He’s a much more effective pitcher as a fastball-slider guy, and fastball-slider guys are much more effective as relievers. Varland noted wanting to work in the rotation this season, and he has given it a shot, but being in the big leagues as a goal probably comes by emerging from beyond the outfield wall.

There’s no denying the best version of the Twins has the 2023 version of Louie Varland on the roster. As a starter, that arm may no longer exist, and while it could hurt the depth by bringing it back, turning to the bullpen blueprint may be best.

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[LambchoP]

Twins need to pick up a solid starter with control either at the deadline or in the off-season. Moving Varland to the pen makes our relief corps even scarier. If we can ever have Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala and Varland pitching from the right side, and then pick up a solid lefty at the deadline to replace Theilbar, we could easily have one of the best bullpens in the game.

[Patzky]

Luzardo seems to check so many boxes. 

[SaberNerd]

I'd rather have a great reliever than a 7th starter. If we really need the depth, we could likely aquire a Varland level starter without touching our top 30 prospects.

[Doctor Gast]

I was worried Ted that you were going to promote Varland to stay as a starting pitcher. I've been advocating all season against wasting Varland's bullets in AAA. Even when many criticized Varland for not being good enough down in AAA, Varland proved last season  that he's very effective in the BP. Yet I wouldn't be against using him in a BP game or even as a spot SP or in the future stretch him in full-time SP. Varland can be most effectively used in long relief, relieving the pressure on both BP & rotation especially seeing some scary stuff from Pablo & Duran.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Starting pitching is the most valuable asset in baseball and the hardest to find. I personally don't think Varland will make it as a starter because he can't find a third quality pitch, much less a fourth. A guy with two quality pitches belongs in the bullpen and Varland could be very good in that role. We saw evidence of that last year. 

Still, I think you have to give him one last shot as a starter this year. We need the depth this year and he could be extremely valuable if he can develop into a starter. I expect them to leave him at AAA as the 6th starter and bring him up for the bullpen in late August if he isn't needed in the rotation. I think that's the right thing to do this year. The long term decision time comes next year. 

[bean5302]

It's super straight forward. 
Q) Is Varland a legitimate option as a rotation arm?
Yes -> Keep him pitching in the rotation in AAA to see if he can get better results.
No -> Move him to the bullpen and hope for the best.

We're probably on answer "No" regardless of whether or not skimming the box score made him look good in his last start. He didn't miss bats against one of the worst teams in baseball, had a 108mph rocket ship come off one of his pitches, allowed a 12.5% barrel rate (terrible) and had an average exit velocity of 91mph (terrible). Even after the game when he was interviewed, he wasn't at all unhappy about coming out after 5.0 shutout innings. You could tell he knew he was lucky not to have owned a few crooked number innings out there.

Depth isn't a concern. Varland is either a legit MLB caliber starter or he isn't. Wishing he was simply because there aren't other options doesn't transform Varland into a good option.

[Fatbat]

By the time we get to a 7 game series in October, Varland will be a weapon in the bullpen.  Barring any significant injuries, our playoff pitching roster will be stacked top to bottom.  Lou’s bullpen build up will likely start mid August with a focus on getting 3-6 outs. In the mean time, he will get spot starts.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Patzky said:

Luzardo seems to check so many boxes. 

A mid rotation starter who's been struggling a bit isn't what I'd be excited about.

[Major League Ready]

59 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

A mid rotation starter who's been struggling a bit isn't what I'd be excited about.

I have not seen him pitch 1 inning this year but I can look at the stats and say that I am also not excited about a guy with an ERA over 5.  

[DocBauer]

It's my understanding Varland was  being asked to work on a sinker as RH batters were his biggest issue. As to his AAA numbers, or anyone else in his situation, we don't know what he's being asked to do inning to inning, game to game. He might be asked to throw 3 straight sinkers to a guy, regardless if he wins the battle or not, simply because they are attempting to work on the pitch. Headrick got  off to maybe the best start of his career before getting hurt, and that's a major bummer for him, as well as the Twins. But that's even less depth to work with, and no offense to Boushley,  but I'd rather see Varland get the next game as a call up over him. I believe Festa is really close as well. 

I agree that Varland either has the pitches to  remain in the rotation long term...even if he's still working some on command...or he doesn't. But for now, he's needed for depth as we still have a lot of season left to go.

I do see him in the pen come September. I'm not saying I wouldn't want to see him sooner,  I just don't think we will due to depth. I think the kind of depth that's going to be at AAA  next season offers a re-examination of  Varland's permanent role going forward. And it's hard  not to love Duran, Jax, Stewart. Alcala, and Varland as your top 5 RH pen arms, with some reasonable  depth options behind them. 

[Peter]

For varland long relief in bullpen is when he fits best band is needed there.

[Whitey333]

 Ice article.  Well written and researched.  Perhaps over researched.  It seems to me it's simply a question of starting or relieving and what's best for the Twins and Varland.  All the other data mentioned seems important only to Rocco and his ridiculous spreadsheets.

[wabene]

Just now, Whitey333 said:

 Ice article.  Well written and researched.  Perhaps over researched.  It seems to me it's simply a question of starting or relieving and what's best for the Twins and Varland.  All the other data mentioned seems important only to Rocco and his ridiculous spreadsheets.

[joefish]

How can the short answer be "Yes" and the long answer be "No?"

 

[ashbury]

29 minutes ago, joefish said:

How can the short answer be "Yes" and the long answer be "No?"

Two different questions.

[TopGunn#22]

I think SaberNerd hit the nail on the head when he said he'd rather have a really good bullpen arm than a #7 SP.  And I don't understand the idea that it has to be an either/or decision.  Johan Santana started out in the bullpen.  Heck, Tommy Hall (The Blade) was a bullpen guy in 1969 and the Twins gave him a bunch of starts in 1970 and he was outstanding.  He was traded to the Reds prior to the 1972 season for Wayne Granger as the Twins needed a true "closer" with Ron Perranoski's effectiveness falling off a table and Hall thrived as a bullpen guy with the reds for several years after that.

Also, we don't need to trade for a LH bullpen arm once we DFA or trade Thielbar.  We just need to promote Funderburk.  

[Fatbat]

15 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I think SaberNerd hit the nail on the head when he said he'd rather have a really good bullpen arm than a #7 SP.  And I don't understand the idea that it has to be an either/or decision.  Johan Santana started out in the bullpen.  Heck, Tommy Hall (The Blade) was a bullpen guy in 1969 and the Twins gave him a bunch of starts in 1970 and he was outstanding.  He was traded to the Reds prior to the 1972 season for Wayne Granger as the Twins needed a true "closer" with Ron Perranoski's effectiveness falling off a table and Hall thrived as a bullpen guy with the reds for several years after that.

Also, we don't need to trade for a LH bullpen arm once we DFA or trade Thielbar.  We just need to promote Funderburk.  

Tbar will likely retire after this season. He wont pitch for any other team either if he is DFA’d. Rocco will keep him out of loyalty, as he should.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Tbar will likely retire after this season. He wont pitch for any other team either if he is DFA’d. Rocco will keep him out of loyalty, as he should.

I'd be awfully surprised if Thielbar would retire the year he first reaches free agency. I'm sure he'll be looking to fix his issues and get an opportunity somewhere as a free agent.

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd be awfully surprised if Thielbar would retire the year he first reaches free agency. I'm sure he'll be looking to fix his issues and get an opportunity somewhere as a free agent.

He is 37 years old. He isn’t Nelson Cruz or Nolan Ryan. 

[Riverbrian]

Reynaldo Lopez -- 1.69

Seth Lugo -- 2.40

Ronel Blanco -- 2.43

Jordan Hicks -- 3.01

Garrett Crochet - 3.16

Zach Littell -- 4.24

A.J. Puk -- 6.84

#1 - Can you hang zeroes. 

#2 - How many zeroes can you hang, 

Sticking players in pre-fabricated starter or reliever boxes is limiting and those boxes are the only reason this discussion exists. 

Shut down relievers should throw more innings and inning eating starters should eat less. 

Varland needs to work on the hanging zeroes part. 

 

 

[NotAboutWinning]

We know the Twins love flexibility in their position players. Perhaps Varland becomes a utility pitcher. Has there been such a thing?