Can the Twins Sustain Their Strikeout Rate Improvement?

[Cody Christie]

One of the Minnesota Twins’ most frustrating traits last season was the club’s propensity to strike out. Flash forward to 2024, and their punchout rates have dropped dramatically. What’s changed, and can it continue?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

For baseball fans, strikeouts can be one of the game’s most frustrating aspects. Pitchers throw with ever-higher velocity and more movement on their pitches, which beget higher strikeout totals. Teams also encourage batters to hit for more power, and when swinging for the fences, strikeouts can be part of the equation. Offense is down across baseball to begin the year, but the Twins have found their offensive stroke in recent weeks after a disastrous start. On the heels of a record-breaking season, many fans might be wondering: “Where have all the strikeouts gone?”

Last season, the Twins set an all-time record with 1,654 strikeouts at the plate, which shattered the previous record of 1,596 strikeouts, held by the Chicago Cubs. That record only stood for two seasons, indicating an increase in strikeouts in recent years. Last season, the Seattle Mariners finished second in team strikeouts with 1,603, which also would have broken the all-time record. Minnesota had seven players accumulate 100 or more strikeouts last season, with a top four who all struck out more than 125 times (Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa, Michael A. Taylor, and Edouard Julien). 

In early September, Correa struck out against Cleveland, marking the team’s 1,431st strikeout of the year and breaking the team's all-time record. After the game, Correa was asked about the dubious record.

"Nobody wants to strike out, but it's part of the game," he shrugged. "Strikeouts happen."

The Twins took a different approach to their roster construction this winter, and it came with some addition by subtraction. Joey Gallo (142 strikeouts) and Michael A. Taylor (130 strikeouts) were replaced by Carlos Santana (16.5 career K%) and Manuel Margot (17.9 career K%). Donovan Solano also struck out 100 times last season, and his spot on the roster is being filled by players with great contact skills, like José Miranda and Austin Martin. There are slight shifts in approach that impact the entire team. 

Minnesota entered play on Sunday tied for 11th in MLB for team strikeouts, trailing the league-leading Mariners by 73. Julien leads the Twins with 49 strikeouts and a 34.3 K%. Other players with high strikeout totals and poor K% include Willi Castro (39, 26.7%), Byron Buxton (32, 32.0%), and Alex Kirilloff (27, 23.3%). Last season, Minnesota led the league with a 26.6 K%; the club has lowered that total by 3.0% in 2024. The Twins rank 17th in Chase% and have improved their Whiff% from 28.4% last season to 27.2% this season. These incremental improvements will be something to track for the remainder of the season. 

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has previously been vocal about the team’s offensive approach, especially when the club struggles with runners in scoring positions. “Just hit the ball forward,” he's been known to say, because this type of approach puts pressure on the defense, and sometimes the ball finds a hole. Luck certainly plays a role in some teams stringing together hits, but that can’t happen if a team doesn’t put the ball in play. 

Many Twins fans will wonder whether or not the lineup can sustain these improvements. The Twins were never as bad as their strikeout totals last season, but not all strikeouts are the same. In the playoffs, teams have to hit for power to win games, because the game’s best starters won’t surrender a string of hits to push across a run. Home runs win playoff games, and the team will accept more swing-and-miss if the offense scores runs at a rate higher than the league average.

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Can the Twins continue their current strikeout pace? Have you noticed a change in the team’s offensive approach? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Doctor Wu]

Good post, and good questions. It's still early in the season, but the overall decline in strikeouts is encouraging. Nevertheless, it appears (to my very un-scientific eye test) that the fewer strikeouts has also resulted in fewer home runs too. But as we have seen during our recent hot stretch, we are still able to win games without needing a bunch of home runs (and here I add another disclaimer: Santana's recent home run barrage has certainly helped win some games). To answer your question about the strikeout decline being sustainable; I honestly don't know. But as long as (most of) the batters are making contact and not whiffing, I'll be happy. 

[old nurse]

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

[Doctor Gast]

Focusing on HRs & striking out in clutch situations don't win close games. (if so we'd have had the best record in the AL last season). Hitting in clutch situations does. Our poor start this season is from adhering to the "all or nothing" approach & the league easily adjusted to it. It was surprising how fast the team turned around after abandoning that approach. If they serve you up a nice juicy meatball you take it, When they don't, which is most of the time in those situations, you take whatever they give you w/o striking out regularly. The new approach is very sustainable as long as they stick to it. Now that the league have discovered that a steady diet of off-speed stuff isn't working they'll go back to serve up more fastballs.

[NotAboutWinning]

I could never understand how the team can boast about Ks with their pitchers, and then turn around and say they are not worrisome for their batters. Makes no logical sense. Haven't looked at the stats, but the Twins seems to have found a good mix of getting on base and power. And it has been a much more exciting brand of baseball to watch!

[Old Twins Cap]

9 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

If the desirable outcome is more entertainment for the fans, and baseball is or should be entertaining to sustain its audience, then there has been an improvement.

There has been for me.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Focusing on HRs & striking out in clutch situations don't win close games. (if so we'd have had the best record in the AL last season). Hitting in clutch situations does. Our poor start this season is from adhering to the "all or nothing" approach & the league easily adjusted to it. It was surprising how fast the team turned around after abandoning that approach. If they serve you up a nice juicy meatball you take it, When they don't, which is most of the time in those situations, you take whatever they give you w/o striking out regularly. The new approach is very sustainable as long as they stick to it. Now that they discovered that a steady diet of off-speed stuff is working they'll go back to serve up more fastballs.

Specifically what changed about their approach?

I looked up the numbers from the start of the season and since the offensive breakout, the only real change is that they're making more contact, whiffing less. They're also hitting more flyballs (5th in MLB since 4/19) and fewer groundballs (7th lowest % since 4/19).

Since April 19th their isolated power is up 58 points & is 2nd best in MLB, they're 1st in slugging %, 5th in home runs (previously 26th), etc etc etc since their breakthrough. Nothing about this suggests that they've changed their approach. They're just making more & better contact. 

[Old Crow]

They are a lot more fun to watch this year.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Always hard to project strikeouts, but given their career rates I'd say the improvement is fairly sustainable and couple possibly even improve some more. Of course, some of the older vets in this list may just be aging but it's interesting to see anyways.

Julien - 34% in 2024 vs 31.4% in 2023 & projections from 30-31%. The backwards Ks have been a surprisingly big problem so far, if he can just cut down on those I bet his K% would improve down to around 30%. 

Vazquez - 28.9% in 2024 vs 18.9% career. He's clearly lost something at the dish, but this is a significant career worst K% so far.

Kirilloff - 29.6% in May 2024 (yes, SSS) vs 23.8% career. Been a real slog for Kirilloff lately, including striking out more. Hopefully not any kind of reoccurrence of his prior wrist or shoulder injuries. 

Margot - 22.6% in 2024 vs 17.9%. His rate in May is already back down to 18.2% - I feel like I have to state that I'm not endorsing for more ABs from Margot.

And yes, this doesn't include guys like Larnach and Jeffers on the opposite side of the coin. Both have improved their strikeout rates by 10% or more. Hopefully that is development and not luck!

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Specifically what changed about their approach?

I looked up the numbers from the start of the season and since the offensive breakout, the only real change is that they're making more contact, whiffing less. They're also hitting more flyballs (5th in MLB since 4/19) and fewer groundballs (7th lowest % since 4/19).

Since April 19th their isolated power is up 58 points & is 2nd best in MLB, they're 1st in slugging %, 5th in home runs (previously 26th), etc etc etc since their breakthrough. Nothing about this suggests that they've changed their approach. They're just making more & better contact. 

100% …….have said before the streak, and again Friday…….there was no switch flipped!! The coaching staff doesn’t deserve an award for the past 3 weeks success any more than they deserve blame for the previous 3 weeks of ineptitude. The “approach” has been to barrel up the ball. Hitting 101. If a guy is pounding low pitches into the ground OR swinging through high fastballs OR flailing at sliders off the plate, adjustments are discussed. Looking for better bat plane or moving in the box a bit or shortening stride are adjustments discussed if a guy is scuffling. There’s no BROAD philosophy that works across the group. Hitters are individuals.

Kirilloff, it was suggested here, was “ignoring the coaching” early in April and lining the ball all over…...that’s why he was succeeding as an island. Hitting coach & probably Baldelli needed to be fired!! …….. Since then….,April 20ish, he’s declined steadily and half dozen other guys have thrived. Doesn’t really make sense that it’s a coaching thing! Players play and it’s their responsibility. It’s silly to think the “philosophy changed” 3 weeks ago!!!!

Your stats illustrate the value of hitting the ball in the air (particularly if it’s a line drive) and the fruits that come with being 2 homers out of 6th place in MLB…..we have one game less played, and are currently tied at 11th. Batting Average is up 45 points since the streak started, from .195…..,with the same hitting coach!………there will be individual slumps as well as surges to come…….it’s baseball.

[old nurse]

42 minutes ago, Old Twins Cap said:

If the desirable outcome is more entertainment for the fans, and baseball is or should be entertaining to sustain its audience, then there has been an improvement.

There has been for me.

The fans interest as measured by people paying to see the game is more tied to winning than K% The desired outcome is winning baseball. Managers and front offices are fired for a lack of winning. Just ask Paul Molitor 

[Lartwinfan]

Watching baseball or any game should be fun with highs and lows. Runners on base provide those ups and downs a lot more than a whole lot of strikeouts while waiting for a home run. Did you enjoy watching Joey Gallo last year?

[old nurse]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

100% …….have said before the streak, and again Friday…….there was no switch flipped!! The coaching staff doesn’t deserve an award for the past 3 weeks success any more than they deserve blame for the previous 3 weeks of ineptitude. The “approach” has been to barrel up the ball. Hitting 101. If a guy is pounding low pitches into the ground OR swinging through high fastballs OR flailing at sliders off the plate, adjustments are discussed. Looking for better bat plane or moving in the box a bit or shortening stride are adjustments discussed if a guy is scuffling. There’s no BROAD philosophy that works across the group. Hitters are individuals.

Kirilloff, it was suggested here, was “ignoring the coaching” early in April and lining the ball all over…...that’s why he was succeeding as an island. Hitting coach & probably Baldelli needed to be fired!! …….. Since then….,April 20ish, he’s declined steadily and half dozen other guys have thrived. Doesn’t really make sense that it’s a coaching thing! Players play and it’s their responsibility. It’s silly to think the “philosophy changed” 3 weeks ago!!!!

Your stats illustrate the value of hitting the ball in the air (particularly if it’s a line drive) and the fruits that come with being 2 homers out of 6th place in MLB…..we have one game less played, and are currently tied at 11th. Batting Average is up 45 points since the streak started, from .195…..,with the same hitting coach!………there will be individual slumps as well as surges to come…….it’s baseball.

Popkin’s quoted philosophy somewhere on these pages was to have a philosophy for each player. There is a correlation with bat speed and launch angles to outcomes. Tweaking a swing to get the better outcome is on the coaches. As you point out, hitting has improved as the season has progressed for many of the players so maybe it is the coaching. Baseball is a game of adjustments 

[old nurse]

5 minutes ago, Lartwinfan said:

Watching baseball or any game should be fun with highs and lows. Runners on base provide those ups and downs a lot more than a whole lot of strikeouts while waiting for a home run. Did you enjoy watching Joey Gallo last year?

On base percentage has not improved from last year so there are not more runners on base this year 

[stringer bell]

Some of the worst strikeout rates (Gallo, Taylor) are no longer Twins. That would explain quite a bit of the decrease in Ks. Individual improvement in guys in like Jeffers and Correa should be noted as well. 

Twins pitchers lead MLB in strikeouts, despite having middle of the road numbers for runs allowed, homers allowed and WHIP. It seems getting strikeouts from the pitchers is a priority, but striking out for the hitters is the cost for hitting the ball hard. Not sure that makes sense.

[wabene]

14 minutes ago, old nurse said:

On base percentage has not improved from last year so there are not more runners on base this year 

In a way this is a good point, but if the OBP is the same with less homers, you will have more base runners.

[BH67]

1 hour ago, Lartwinfan said:

Did you enjoy watching Joey Gallo last year?

I'd have enjoyed watching Ernest or Julio Gallo more.

[Whitey333]

Good article.  Look I love homeruns as much as anyone but I will take wins over Homer's anytime.  The Twins are finally playing fun to watch baseball.  Base runners and hitting add excitement despite Roccos unwillingness to steal more often.  One of the most boring games I've seen was earlier this year between the Twins and Dodgers that included something like 27 strikeouts between the two teams.  It's funny how many people say strikeouts don't matter when you are hitting.  But yet those same people say they are great when your pitchers get them.  Baseball has changed a lot the past few years and not for the better IMO.  Go Twins.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

Really stretching that last one to try and bolster your position having to take it out to 3 digits, haha. 4.785 vs. 4.800. How about we look at a couple underlying scoring numbers?

2024 vs. 2023. If we went head to head in runs scored for the first 42 games of the season, 2024 would have a slight winning record against 2023 at 17-16-9.

Median runs scored. 4 vs. 4

Mode runs scored. 3 vs. 2

This is where the reduction in strikeouts probably plays the biggest role. The rally kill. The most common score from the Twins offense this year is 3 runs (not ideal), but it was only 2 runs in 2023. The 2023 Twins scored 10 or 0. This year, they're much more consistent putting runs on the board.

[bean5302]

I can't believe nobody has mentioned Jeffers in here.
Career = 29.0% K rate
2023 = 27.8% K rate
2024 = 19.3% K rate

...and he's already at 140 plate appearances vs. last year's 335. Not sure if Jeffers has really turned a corner or if we'll see some big regression, but it makes it a lot easier to have more faith in projecting his bat.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

In a way this is a good point, but if the OBP is the same with less homers, you will have more base runners.

A couple percentage points less this year.  Hits+BB+HPB-HR/Games says the Twins have less base runners per game by 0.01 per game  

[Craig Arko]

Better not throw the sausage away.

[JD-TWINS]

Some guys are significantly better - i.e. Jeffers as shown by bean5032…..some guys improving in this year already, i.e. Julien at 34.5% down from 40% a couple weeks ago!!

No Michael A.Taylor - No Joey Gallo ……Vazquez & Farmer will slowly get better. I think Santana will get a couple % lower over time? Correa seems much more competent at the plate in ‘24!

I think it’s less individual approach (Jeffers withstanding) and more about a better constructed roster. Good slow change seems to be happening.

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Really stretching that last one to try and bolster your position having to take it out to 3 digits, haha. 4.785 vs. 4.800. How about we look at a couple underlying scoring numbers?

2024 vs. 2023. If we went head to head in runs scored for the first 42 games of the season, 2024 would have a slight winning record against 2023 at 17-16-9.

Median runs scored. 4 vs. 4

Mode runs scored. 3 vs. 2

This is where the reduction in strikeouts probably plays the biggest role. The rally kill. The most common score from the Twins offense this year is 3 runs (not ideal), but it was only 2 runs in 2023. The 2023 Twins scored 10 or 0. This year, they're much more consistent putting runs on the board.

Runs scored would indicate that rally’s are being killed at the same rate. Try again. There is nothing so far that shows outcomes have been any different with less strikeouts. 

[stringer bell]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I can't believe nobody has mentioned Jeffers in here.
Career = 29.0% K rate
2023 = 27.8% K rate
2024 = 19.3% K rate

...and he's already at 140 plate appearances vs. last year's 335. Not sure if Jeffers has really turned a corner or if we'll see some big regression, but it makes it a lot easier to have more faith in projecting his bat.

 

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Individual improvement in guys in like Jeffers and Correa should be noted as well. 

Ahem

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

IMO the best way isn't comparing this year to last year because the pitching adjusted better to the Twins this season and hitters like Lewis greatly improved our #s in the 2nd half of last season. To get a more accurate idea we need to compare the beginning of the season which the league adjusted to the point they changed their approach until now. Our #s really sucked in the beginning of this year (old approach) which really affected our total for this season. I highly doubt that 2nd part of this season #s (approach change) are poorer than the 1st (the old). It's easy to get deceived.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO the best way isn't comparing this year to last year because the pitching adjusted better to the Twins this season. To get a more accurate idea we need to compare the beginning of the season which the league adjusted to the point they changed their approach until now. Our #s really sucked in the beginning of the year (old approach) which really affected our total for this season. I highly doubt that 2nd part of this season #s (approach change) are poorer than the 1st (the old).

What was their approach change?

As @CCHOF5yearstoolate pointed out, the Twins have been hitting the ball in the air more, and for more power, during this run of success. That's been their approach the whole time. Hit the ball hard in the air because it results in power. Looks to me like they're just being more successful at the approach they've always had.

 

[wabene]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What was their approach change?

As @CCHOF5yearstoolate pointed out, the Twins have been hitting the ball in the air more, and for more power, during this run of success. That's been their approach the whole time. Hit the ball hard in the air because it results in power. Looks to me like they're just being more successful at the approach they've always had.

 

Do you think there are guys widening their stance and choking up or something with 2 strikes? I think Jeffers was saying that. Kepler's had many 2 strike hits of all sorts; squibs, bloops, going the opposite way etc. This is my purely anecdotal observation.

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, wabene said:

Do you think there are guys widening their stance and choking up or something with 2 strikes? I think Jeffers was saying that. Kepler's had many 2 strike hits of all sorts; squibs, bloops, going the opposite way etc. This is my purely anecdotal observation.

"The Streak" started on April 22. If we use that as the date of when they started to succeed here's some comparisons on 2 strike #s as a team:

Hard hit rate- Through 4/21: 28.5%, after 4/21: 32.2%
Med hit rate- Through 4/21: 51.6%, after 4/21: 51.9%
Soft hit rate- Through 4/21: 19.9%, after 4/21: 15.9%

Line drive rate: Through 4/21: 17.7%, after 4/21: 21.5%
Ground ball rate: Through 4/21: 46.8%, after 4/21: 39.3%
Fly ball rate: Through 4/21: 35.5%, after 4/21: 39.9%
HR/FB rate: Through 4/21: 9.1%, after 4/21: 11.9%

To me that looks like better success at the same approach. Nearly the same medium hit rate while seeing a real shift from soft contact to hard contact. Significantly fewer ground balls with improved line drive and fly ball rates. And an improved HR/FB rate.

Part of this could be some definition differences. What do we all mean by "approach?" That's why I think it's important to discuss what changes people feel were made. But this team has actually hit the ball harder with 2 strikes since they started being successful. Lots of things that could lead to that, but I don't think many people attribute widening stances and choking up with improved hard hit rates (balls with exit velos over 95 MPH). Not saying that isn't a possible answer, but not the first thing people would think of when it comes to hitting the ball harder.

(All stats from Fangraphs splits leaderboard filtered for 2 strike counts)
 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Runs scored would indicate that rally’s are being killed at the same rate. Try again. There is nothing so far that shows outcomes have been any different with less strikeouts. 

Just an aside on runs in ‘24 …….since April 27th the Twins have scored 16 - 11 - 10 - 10 - 11 in 5 of those 15 games. They had 8 in a loss on Saturday. That’s 64 runs over 6 games. That’s skewing things a bit, with a relatively small sample size, is my assumption.