Can the Twins Sustain Their Strikeout Rate Improvement?

Good post, and good questions. It's still early in the season, but the overall decline in strikeouts is encouraging. Nevertheless, it appears (to my very un-scientific eye test) that the fewer strikeouts has also resulted in fewer home runs too. But as we have seen during our recent hot stretch, we are still able to win games without needing a bunch of home runs (and here I add another disclaimer: Santana's recent home run barrage has certainly helped win some games). To answer your question about the strikeout decline being sustainable; I honestly don't know. But as long as (most of) the batters are making contact and not whiffing, I'll be happy. 

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

Focusing on HRs & striking out in clutch situations don't win close games. (if so we'd have had the best record in the AL last season). Hitting in clutch situations does. Our poor start this season is from adhering to the "all or nothing" approach & the league easily adjusted to it. It was surprising how fast the team turned around after abandoning that approach. If they serve you up a nice juicy meatball you take it, When they don't, which is most of the time in those situations, you take whatever they give you w/o striking out regularly. The new approach is very sustainable as long as they stick to it. Now that the league have discovered that a steady diet of off-speed stuff isn't working they'll go back to serve up more fastballs.

9 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

If the desirable outcome is more entertainment for the fans, and baseball is or should be entertaining to sustain its audience, then there has been an improvement.

There has been for me.

They are a lot more fun to watch this year.

42 minutes ago, Old Twins Cap said:

If the desirable outcome is more entertainment for the fans, and baseball is or should be entertaining to sustain its audience, then there has been an improvement.

There has been for me.

The fans interest as measured by people paying to see the game is more tied to winning than K% The desired outcome is winning baseball. Managers and front offices are fired for a lack of winning. Just ask Paul Molitor 

Watching baseball or any game should be fun with highs and lows. Runners on base provide those ups and downs a lot more than a whole lot of strikeouts while waiting for a home run. Did you enjoy watching Joey Gallo last year?

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

100% …….have said before the streak, and again Friday…….there was no switch flipped!! The coaching staff doesn’t deserve an award for the past 3 weeks success any more than they deserve blame for the previous 3 weeks of ineptitude. The “approach” has been to barrel up the ball. Hitting 101. If a guy is pounding low pitches into the ground OR swinging through high fastballs OR flailing at sliders off the plate, adjustments are discussed. Looking for better bat plane or moving in the box a bit or shortening stride are adjustments discussed if a guy is scuffling. There’s no BROAD philosophy that works across the group. Hitters are individuals.

Kirilloff, it was suggested here, was “ignoring the coaching” early in April and lining the ball all over…...that’s why he was succeeding as an island. Hitting coach & probably Baldelli needed to be fired!! …….. Since then….,April 20ish, he’s declined steadily and half dozen other guys have thrived. Doesn’t really make sense that it’s a coaching thing! Players play and it’s their responsibility. It’s silly to think the “philosophy changed” 3 weeks ago!!!!

Your stats illustrate the value of hitting the ball in the air (particularly if it’s a line drive) and the fruits that come with being 2 homers out of 6th place in MLB…..we have one game less played, and are currently tied at 11th. Batting Average is up 45 points since the streak started, from .195…..,with the same hitting coach!………there will be individual slumps as well as surges to come…….it’s baseball.

Popkin’s quoted philosophy somewhere on these pages was to have a philosophy for each player. There is a correlation with bat speed and launch angles to outcomes. Tweaking a swing to get the better outcome is on the coaches. As you point out, hitting has improved as the season has progressed for many of the players so maybe it is the coaching. Baseball is a game of adjustments 

5 minutes ago, Lartwinfan said:

Watching baseball or any game should be fun with highs and lows. Runners on base provide those ups and downs a lot more than a whole lot of strikeouts while waiting for a home run. Did you enjoy watching Joey Gallo last year?

On base percentage has not improved from last year so there are not more runners on base this year 

14 minutes ago, old nurse said:

On base percentage has not improved from last year so there are not more runners on base this year 

In a way this is a good point, but if the OBP is the same with less homers, you will have more base runners.

1 hour ago, Lartwinfan said:

Did you enjoy watching Joey Gallo last year?

I'd have enjoyed watching Ernest or Julio Gallo more.

Good article.  Look I love homeruns as much as anyone but I will take wins over Homer's anytime.  The Twins are finally playing fun to watch baseball.  Base runners and hitting add excitement despite Roccos unwillingness to steal more often.  One of the most boring games I've seen was earlier this year between the Twins and Dodgers that included something like 27 strikeouts between the two teams.  It's funny how many people say strikeouts don't matter when you are hitting.  But yet those same people say they are great when your pitchers get them.  Baseball has changed a lot the past few years and not for the better IMO.  Go Twins.

1 hour ago, wabene said:

In a way this is a good point, but if the OBP is the same with less homers, you will have more base runners.

A couple percentage points less this year.  Hits+BB+HPB-HR/Games says the Twins have less base runners per game by 0.01 per game  

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Really stretching that last one to try and bolster your position having to take it out to 3 digits, haha. 4.785 vs. 4.800. How about we look at a couple underlying scoring numbers?

2024 vs. 2023. If we went head to head in runs scored for the first 42 games of the season, 2024 would have a slight winning record against 2023 at 17-16-9.

Median runs scored. 4 vs. 4

Mode runs scored. 3 vs. 2

This is where the reduction in strikeouts probably plays the biggest role. The rally kill. The most common score from the Twins offense this year is 3 runs (not ideal), but it was only 2 runs in 2023. The 2023 Twins scored 10 or 0. This year, they're much more consistent putting runs on the board.

Runs scored would indicate that rally’s are being killed at the same rate. Try again. There is nothing so far that shows outcomes have been any different with less strikeouts. 

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Strikeouts are down. This year Also down this year are BB%, OBP, BABIP, and OPS.  Rus scored per game 4.785 per game this year,4.8 last year . It would be hard to say there is an improvement in outcomes with less strikeouts. 

IMO the best way isn't comparing this year to last year because the pitching adjusted better to the Twins this season and hitters like Lewis greatly improved our #s in the 2nd half of last season. To get a more accurate idea we need to compare the beginning of the season which the league adjusted to the point they changed their approach until now. Our #s really sucked in the beginning of this year (old approach) which really affected our total for this season. I highly doubt that 2nd part of this season #s (approach change) are poorer than the 1st (the old). It's easy to get deceived.

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What was their approach change?

As @CCHOF5yearstoolate pointed out, the Twins have been hitting the ball in the air more, and for more power, during this run of success. That's been their approach the whole time. Hit the ball hard in the air because it results in power. Looks to me like they're just being more successful at the approach they've always had.

 

Do you think there are guys widening their stance and choking up or something with 2 strikes? I think Jeffers was saying that. Kepler's had many 2 strike hits of all sorts; squibs, bloops, going the opposite way etc. This is my purely anecdotal observation.