Is Simeon Woods Richardson the Twins' Top Pitching Prospect?

[Cody Christie]

Simeon Woods Richardson is off to a tremendous start to the 2024 season after a terrible finish to last year. Has he improved enough to be considered the Twins’ top pitching prospect?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Twins Daily regularly updates the team’s top prospects throughout the regular season, allowing for constant evaluation of players. Some prospects are off to hot starts, while others have seen their prospect status drop because of injuries or poor performance. Simeon Woods Richardson is one player who will rise in the rankings, but how much has he helped his stock during the season's early months?

Early in his professional career, he had been considered one of baseball’s top-100 prospects, with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him at the backend of their lists in 2020-21. However, Woods Richardson entered the 2024 season with his prospect stock lower than it ever had been in his career. His fastball velocity dropped significantly last year, sitting in the low 90s with the Saints. Woods Richardson also struggled to generate swings and misses with a career-low 19.3 K%. The International League is a hitting-friendly environment, but SWR’s drop in velocity was concerning enough that the Twins needed to address it during the offseason.

Minnesota’s coaches worked with Woods Richardson to tweak his delivery by slightly lowering his arm slot. "It was from both parties," Woods Richardson told Twins Daily's John Bonnes at spring training this year. "I wanted to change for the better, and why not? And they said, 'OK, let's sit down. Let's talk about this.' And we came up with a couple of things, working on mechanical stuff. Let's see if we can drop the slot a little bit and see where it goes." This minor tweak is closer to where he was when he joined the Twins organization, and it is a more natural and athletic position for the pitcher. His fastball is averaging nearly 93 mph this season, which doesn’t make him a flamethrower but is much improved from last season. 

Twins Daily ranked Woods Richardson as the organization’s 19th-best prospect based on his struggles in 2023. Seven pitchers were ranked higher than him, with the four names below being in the conversation as the team’s top pitching prospect. How have the other pitchers performed in 2024? Has SWR passed them to be ranked at the top?

#9. Cory Lewis, RHP
2024 Stats (N/A): Has Not Pitched  
The Twins selected Lewis in the ninth round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of the University of California, Santa Barbara. The Twins named him the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year last season after posting a 2.49 ERA and a 118-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 101 1/3 innings between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. Lewis was scheduled to start the year at Double-A but was placed on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement. Shoulder injuries can be complicated for pitchers to navigate, so the Twins will be cautious about his return to the mound. 

#8 Charlee Soto, RHP
2024 Stats (A-): 4.95 ERA, 20.0 IP, 26 K, 9 BB, 1.50 WHIP
Minnesota’s current front office has tended to focus on college pitchers in the draft, which makes Soto an anomaly. As an 18-year-old, he is over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the Florida State League. The Twins have been careful with his workload, a strategy similar to what the organization has utilized with other young pitching prospects. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts, with one poor start (6 ER in 3 1/3 innings) impacting his overall numbers. Soto has the highest ceiling of anyone on this list, but he’s far from Target Field. 

#6. David Festa, RHP
2024 Stats (AAA): 3.75 ERA, 24.0 IP, 38 K, 14 BB, 1.58 WHIP
Festa, who is six months older than Woods Richardson, rose prominently on Twins prospects lists this winter after a strong 2023 season. Some outlets rank him as the top pitching prospect in the organization, and he has shown some positive signs at Triple-A this season. Festa is striking out batters at a career-high rate (14.3 K/9), but he’s also seen an increase in his walk rate from 3.7 BB/9 for his career to 5.3 BB/9 in 2024. Minnesota will likely need Festa at some point this season when a rotation spot opens due to injury or poor performance. His career high in innings pitched is 103 2/3 back in 2022, so the Twins will also watch for fatigue in the season’s second half. 

#5. Marco Raya, RHP
2024 Stats (AA): 3.07 ERA, 14.2 IP, 19 K, 5 BB, 1.30 WHIP
Raya has become one of the gems of the pandemic-impacted 2020 MLB Draft after the Twins selected him in the fourth round. He has showcased a dominant pitch mix, but the Twins have significantly limited his workload while aggressively promoting him. This year, he has averaged fewer than three innings per start, with only two starts of more than 50 pitches. As a 21-year-old, he is over 3.5 years younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. He is an interesting case study in what might be the future of starting pitching because the lines are starting to blur between starters and multi-inning relievers. 

Here are my current rankings of the team’s top-five pitching prospects. 

1. David Festa
2. Marco Raya
3. Simeon Woods Richardson
4. Charlee Soto
5. Cory Lewis

Woods Richardson's breakthrough in velocity had propelled him up my list. However, his prospect eligibility is running out as he continues to pitch innings at the big-league level. By next month, he may not even be eligible for this list anymore. More importantly, he is only 23 years old and continues to show the ability to make adjustments, which should put him into the team’s long-term pitching plans. 

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How do you rank the team’s top pitching prospects? How have your rankings changed since the season began? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[wabene]

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Tune in midseason.  I'm pretty thrilled with the SWR performance so far, but pitchers have highs and lows of a few games all the time and SWR has certainly experienced plenty of lows.  If his current performance is here to stay, then absolutely, he is moving up the list, but it's too early to make that declaration.  Let's enjoy it and hope it lasts.

[jorgenswest]

On 5/10/2024 at 6:02 AM, Cody Christie said:

Twins Daily ranked Woods Richardson as the organization’s 19th-best prospect based on his struggles in 2023. Seven pitchers were ranked higher than him, with the four names below being in the conversation as the team’s top pitching prospect. How have the other pitchers performed in 2024? Has SWR passed them to be ranked at the top?

Is it possible that TD just got it wrong? Maybe he hasn’t passed anyone. He is younger than most on the list and was challenged at a higher level of the minors. His stuff+ was very good last year. His velocity was reported to be up this winter. The Twins may have always viewed him more ready and capable than the others. They certainly pushed him up to AAA before the others. My guess is the Twins don’t rank but are asset based in their evaluations. Rankings don’t have a lot of value.

[DJL44]

Seems an odd question to ask since he's about to have enough innings pitched to leave prospect lists forever.

[Lunger]

 

Where would you put Zebby Matthews?  At this point I would rank him above SWR and Lewis.  He is pitching deeper into games and his first start at AA was dominant.  He walks nobody, velo up in mid 90's with a solid 4 pitch mix.  Looks to be a solid mid rotation prospect.

[Doctor Gast]

I tend to evaluate more on what has been developed, ability to adjust, floor & character. That's why my evaluation on SWR prior hadn't dropped that much. Raja has a higher ceiling but his development is behind SWR & Festa so his floor is lower. Like you Cody, those 3 are the top, IMO they are very close right now. I could go SWR as #1. 

SWR had a great start, I imagine the league will get to know him & adjust. IMO SWR will readjust hopefully quickly.

[Otaknam]

The list doesn’t excite me. I don’t see any top of the rotation starters here. Soto has the highest ceiling, but he is very young. SWR has pitched well so far but his history makes me cautious about his upside. Festa is now exhibiting command issues, so let’s hope he gets a handle on that. Raya is a head scratcher because he is 21 and they still limit him to 50 pitches for some reason. Does he have an injury or medical history to be concerned about? While he may be young for his league, he is still 21, not 19. So why the cautious pitch count? Lewis might have the greatest upside as a starter, so let’s hope his shoulder issues subside and he can build on an excellent 2023. 

[roger]

I guess a lot depends on what we think of as the Twins top prospect.  Personally, I think about who has the potential to be the best of the best.  Someone who just may end up being that ACE.

So my two top Twins prospects are Canterino and Prielipp.  Unfortunately, neither may ever be healthy enough to play for the Twins.  But in the entire organization they are the two who to me could become that front of the rotation studs.  Will admit, however, as Canterino gets older it is more likely his future may be as a member of a future bullpen.

As for Woods Richardson, I am thrilled with how well he is doing in the slot most of us expected to be Varland.  Let's cross our fingers that today is another good outing.

[saviking]

I don't want him to move up. I want him to drop the prospect part .. But we shall see. Varland had some good stretches and he's having to start all over again. 

[madtowntwin]

The term  "Ace" has undergone change the past decade (at least) and no longer holds the same meaning. In the past a teams "Ace" would throw more complete games on their own as we are now seeing throughout the league in a season. Today's "Ace" must get through a major league lineup 2+ times and turn the ball over to the bullpen. Looking at teams bullpen potential in the minors is as important as their starting rotation potential these days if not more so...Saw an MLB Story on Strasburg's MLB debut the other day - Will that ever happen again?? The Brewer rookie pitcher went 6 innings last night...Managers now start obsessing with their matchup charts in the 4th / 5th inning. The other day when Pablo was pulled against the Mariners - How would that scenario played out 15-20 years ago when the term "Ace" truly had meaning. I know EXACTLY what you mean by the term Roger, but does today's game???

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, Lunger said:

 

Where would you put Zebby Matthews?  At this point I would rank him above SWR and Lewis.  He is pitching deeper into games and his first start at AA was dominant.  He walks nobody, velo up in mid 90's with a solid 4 pitch mix.  Looks to be a solid mid rotation prospect.

He just got to AA & SWR has pitched in the Show over a handful of games - over 2 seasons & he’s 23. His ERA after 4 starts is 1.74. He too has a 4 pitch mix.

I guess if “prospect” is the key term vs. “leading guy” some of these other guys may be more highly rated. I don’t really care about 2025 & beyond in May of ‘24 if we’re scrambling for a 5th starter & trying to win a Division.

SWR is doing a fine job and should be valued appropriately!

[JD-TWINS]

48 minutes ago, Lunger said:

 

Where would you put Zebby Matthews?  At this point I would rank him above SWR and Lewis.  He is pitching deeper into games and his first start at AA was dominant.  He walks nobody, velo up in mid 90's with a solid 4 pitch mix.  Looks to be a solid mid rotation prospect.

BTW - is that a Doc Holliday, Tombstone reference with your handle? If so, love it!

[LambchoP]

I'm more excited about Canterino, if we can ever get him healthy. Also Zebbys Mathews, he's looked like an ace in the minors this year. Festa has command problems and Raya never throws more than 2-3 innings, which makes me think one or both of them are probably headed for a bullpen role which would lower their value.

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Seems an odd question to ask since he's about to have enough innings pitched to leave prospect lists forever.

I wrote about that in the article. It’s still a valid question because he is younger than some of the pitchers in the organization who are still prospect eligible. 

[jmlease1]

There almost needs to be a new category for players like SWR (and Varland, or Martin, or Wallner) where they're not really prospects any longer but haven't established themselves as MLB players quite yet. They're the unfinished products who have the talent to play in MLB but might not have the finishing touches to put themselves in MLB for good. Because at a certain point it really doesn't make any sense to compare SWR to someone like Soto, when they're so far removed from each other in level.

I've always been a fan of SWR, and he was the poster child for how to get your developmental cycle completely screwed up, so seeing him having success is exciting. Three organizations before he turned 21, missing an entire (and critical) season because of the pandemic, getting an early promotion to AA that he almost certainly wasn't ready for, having a season interrupted by the national team where he didn't even get to pitch...by the time he got to MN I'd argue he was working on talent and guts alone. Great work by him and the staff to get him to a place where he can be a professional pitcher. Where he can be consistent enough to make a mechanical change and stick with it.

I think he's still going to have a bump or two along the way, but I would not be shocked at all for him to be a rotation mainstay for 2025.

[Einheri]

So… Twins must have tweaked his slot angle once they got him, and now they're putting it back to where it was.  Seems about right.

[wabene]

A big strong 23 year old young man. Whether he ends up a #1, a #5 or somewhere in between, he could fill a valuable role for a long time. He still has room to grow and seems to have the make-up to be a consistent performer.

[wabene]

47 minutes ago, Einheri said:

So… Twins must have tweaked his slot angle once they got him, and now they're putting it back to where it was.  Seems about right.

Pure conjecture

[tony&rodney]

Jaylin Nowlen is improving.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, madtowntwin said:

The term  "Ace" has undergone change the past decade (at least) and no longer holds the same meaning. In the past a teams "Ace" would throw more complete games on their own as we are now seeing throughout the league in a season. Today's "Ace" must get through a major league lineup 2+ times and turn the ball over to the bullpen. Looking at teams bullpen potential in the minors is as important as their starting rotation potential these days if not more so...Saw an MLB Story on Strasburg's MLB debut the other day - Will that ever happen again?? The Brewer rookie pitcher went 6 innings last night...Managers now start obsessing with their matchup charts in the 4th / 5th inning. The other day when Pablo was pulled against the Mariners - How would that scenario played out 15-20 years ago when the term "Ace" truly had meaning. I know EXACTLY what you mean by the term Roger, but does today's game???

I think you have a personally adjusted viewpoint of what an "Ace" was. All pitchers threw tons of innings in the very old days, but it's been exceptionally uncommon to see complete games over the past 20 years.
10 years ago the Twins had 2 complete games. Hughes (1), Nolasco (1).
20 years ago the Twins had 4 complete games. Santana (1), Radke (1), Silva (1), Lohse (1).
30 years ago the Twins had 6 complete games. Tapani (4), Erickson (2).
40 years ago the Twins had 32 complete games. Viola (10), Smithson (10), Butcher (8), Schrom (3), Williams (1).
50 years ago the Twins had 43 complete games. Blyleven (19), Decker (11), Goltz (5), Albury (4), Corbin (1), Butler (2), Hughes (1)

I recognize 2 of the 7 names that threw complete games for the Twins in 1974. 

An ace, IMHO, is a guy who comes in and gives your team an excellent chance to win the game almost every time they take the ball. Like 80% of the time, they give a team 6+ innings and leave the game with an ERA under 4.00. When a pitcher steps onto the mound and you can automatically expect your team will win the game. That's an ace.

If you're asking whether or not we'll see a return to 85mph fastballs and 300 inning pitchers, the answer is no. Not ever.

[bean5302]

Woods Richardson is not a prospect, IMHO. He's got 3-4 starts before he drops off the prospect lists as beyond rookie status for next year. If he can keep his mechanics in order, he should be good. If his mechanics fall out of order (which has happened repeatedly over the past 3 years the Twins have been coaching him), he'll fail.

[wabene]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think you have a personally adjusted viewpoint of what an "Ace" was. All pitchers threw tons of innings in the very old days, but it's been exceptionally uncommon to see complete games over the past 20 years.
10 years ago the Twins had 2 complete games. Hughes (1), Nolasco (1).
20 years ago the Twins had 4 complete games. Santana (1), Radke (1), Silva (1), Lohse (1).
30 years ago the Twins had 6 complete games. Tapani (4), Erickson (2).
40 years ago the Twins had 32 complete games. Viola (10), Smithson (10), Butcher (8), Schrom (3), Williams (1).
50 years ago the Twins had 43 complete games. Blyleven (19), Decker (11), Goltz (5), Albury (4), Corbin (1), Butler (2), Hughes (1)

I recognize 2 of the 7 names that threw complete games for the Twins in 1974. 

An ace, IMHO, is a guy who comes in and gives your team an excellent chance to win the game almost every time they take the ball. Like 80% of the time, they give a team 6+ innings and leave the game with an ERA under 4.00. When a pitcher steps onto the mound and you can automatically expect your team will win the game. That's an ace.

If you're asking whether or not we'll see a return to 85mph fastballs and 300 inning pitchers, the answer is no. Not ever.

Thanks, that's a good post bean. Amazing how linear that progression was (or digression, lol). Velocity and spin undoubtedly put stress on the body as well as the batter.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, wabene said:

Thanks, that's a good post bean. Amazing how linear that progression (or digression, lol) was. Velocity and spin undoubtedly put stress on the body and the batter.

There's also just a totally different viewpoint in the game. Why have a pitcher throw a complete game when they're tired when you can bring in a stud reliever who's fresh and gives you a better chance to win? 60 years ago it was 47 complete games. It's also interesting that over those decade markers no pitcher ever appeared in two lists. I suspect most people in Twins Daily would consider Jim Kaat to be an ace, but he was actually a swingman, and never the best starter on the team for that matter. Nostalgia and reputation makes fan favorites into superstar producers and classic musclecars into the pinnacle of 1/4 mile performances.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

14.2 innings pitched for Marco Raya is sad. I had that by my second start in early April every year. I mean, it's the middle of May, and he hasn't been hurt?! I don't understand it at all and never will. This is what, year 3 or 4 and he isn't even stretched out to 50 pitches? That's when I'd really start to feel loose, 50 thru 100. It's ridiculous. I'm sorry. 

[John Bonnes]

3 hours ago, Lunger said:

 

Where would you put Zebby Matthews?  At this point I would rank him above SWR and Lewis.  He is pitching deeper into games and his first start at AA was dominant.  He walks nobody, velo up in mid 90's with a solid 4 pitch mix.  Looks to be a solid mid rotation prospect.

FWIW, Jamie Cameron has a story on Matthews that is running early tomorrow, so stay tuned. 🙂

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

14.2 innings pitched for Marco Raya is sad. I had that by my second start in early April every year. I mean, it's the middle of May, and he hasn't been hurt?! I don't understand it at all and never will. This is what, year 3 or 4 and he isn't even stretched out to 50 pitches? That's when I'd really start to feel loose, 50 thru 100. It's ridiculous. I'm sorry. 

Raya is going to be a long reliever/opener and Twins fans should probably get used to that concept. The Twins don't allow him to get to 60 pitches anymore. 56 pitches max this year, 54 pitches max last year.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Tune in midseason.  I'm pretty thrilled with the SWR performance so far, but pitchers have highs and lows of a few games all the time and SWR has certainly experienced plenty of lows.  If his current performance is here to stay, then absolutely, he is moving up the list, but it's too early to make that declaration.  Let's enjoy it and hope it lasts.

 

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Seems an odd question to ask since he's about to have enough innings pitched to leave prospect lists forever.

That was my reaction to the comment above, too.  If you wait long enough to know for sure, he's not a prospect anymore.  But teams have to make their decisions based on incomplete knowledge; direct scouting and statistical analysis are all they get to use.  And when the numbers are at odds with the eye test, as seems to have been the case for SWR until now, it's a really difficult decision.

[DocBauer]

Is he the best/top pitching prospect? Mmmm....maybe, maybe not. Is he the most ready? Yes.

He's off to a good start, and that's awesome. I hope he keeps it up, even with some expected speed bumps here and there. 

But doesn't it depend on what you determine individually as to what a "best" prospect is? Is it the highest ceiling despite how far away you are? Is it the best arm closest to the ML? 

I'd have to probably go with Soto as the highest ceiling in the system. I'd probably say Festa as the best arm closest to the ML if and when he gets better command. His stuff is just more electric than SWR.

Matthews is in a limbo land between ceiling and proximity and stuff, too early in the year to make a determination, but check back come August/September.

But none of that undermines SWR being only 23yo and looking good and off to a good start, and MAYBE a quality fixture for the next several seasons. He just might be the most ready arm, but not necessarily the best arm in the system. 

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Raya is going to be a long reliever/opener and Twins fans should probably get used to that concept. The Twins don't allow him to get to 60 pitches anymore. 56 pitches max this year, 54 pitches max last year.

Yes, I know that's what they'd like to do, but it still makes zero sense. You'll never have any idea what his capabilities could've been holding him to these ridiculous pitch count/ innings limits. I operated on strict pitch limits my whole life and do the same with every kid I've coached or private instructed. But this is some next level stuff. Grooming a guy to start for 2 or 3 innings is just, yuck. Some ivy league pencil neck who has never thrown a ball in his life came up with this. Glad I passed on that Princeton scholarship offer looking back now🤭