Is Simeon Woods Richardson the Twins' Top Pitching Prospect?

On 5/10/2024 at 6:02 AM, Cody Christie said:

Twins Daily ranked Woods Richardson as the organization’s 19th-best prospect based on his struggles in 2023. Seven pitchers were ranked higher than him, with the four names below being in the conversation as the team’s top pitching prospect. How have the other pitchers performed in 2024? Has SWR passed them to be ranked at the top?

Is it possible that TD just got it wrong? Maybe he hasn’t passed anyone. He is younger than most on the list and was challenged at a higher level of the minors. His stuff+ was very good last year. His velocity was reported to be up this winter. The Twins may have always viewed him more ready and capable than the others. They certainly pushed him up to AAA before the others. My guess is the Twins don’t rank but are asset based in their evaluations. Rankings don’t have a lot of value.

Seems an odd question to ask since he's about to have enough innings pitched to leave prospect lists forever.

Where would you put Zebby Matthews?  At this point I would rank him above SWR and Lewis.  He is pitching deeper into games and his first start at AA was dominant.  He walks nobody, velo up in mid 90's with a solid 4 pitch mix.  Looks to be a solid mid rotation prospect.

I tend to evaluate more on what has been developed, ability to adjust, floor & character. That's why my evaluation on SWR prior hadn't dropped that much. Raja has a higher ceiling but his development is behind SWR & Festa so his floor is lower. Like you Cody, those 3 are the top, IMO they are very close right now. I could go SWR as #1. 

SWR had a great start, I imagine the league will get to know him & adjust. IMO SWR will readjust hopefully quickly.

The list doesn’t excite me. I don’t see any top of the rotation starters here. Soto has the highest ceiling, but he is very young. SWR has pitched well so far but his history makes me cautious about his upside. Festa is now exhibiting command issues, so let’s hope he gets a handle on that. Raya is a head scratcher because he is 21 and they still limit him to 50 pitches for some reason. Does he have an injury or medical history to be concerned about? While he may be young for his league, he is still 21, not 19. So why the cautious pitch count? Lewis might have the greatest upside as a starter, so let’s hope his shoulder issues subside and he can build on an excellent 2023. 

I guess a lot depends on what we think of as the Twins top prospect.  Personally, I think about who has the potential to be the best of the best.  Someone who just may end up being that ACE.

So my two top Twins prospects are Canterino and Prielipp.  Unfortunately, neither may ever be healthy enough to play for the Twins.  But in the entire organization they are the two who to me could become that front of the rotation studs.  Will admit, however, as Canterino gets older it is more likely his future may be as a member of a future bullpen.

As for Woods Richardson, I am thrilled with how well he is doing in the slot most of us expected to be Varland.  Let's cross our fingers that today is another good outing.

The term  "Ace" has undergone change the past decade (at least) and no longer holds the same meaning. In the past a teams "Ace" would throw more complete games on their own as we are now seeing throughout the league in a season. Today's "Ace" must get through a major league lineup 2+ times and turn the ball over to the bullpen. Looking at teams bullpen potential in the minors is as important as their starting rotation potential these days if not more so...Saw an MLB Story on Strasburg's MLB debut the other day - Will that ever happen again?? The Brewer rookie pitcher went 6 innings last night...Managers now start obsessing with their matchup charts in the 4th / 5th inning. The other day when Pablo was pulled against the Mariners - How would that scenario played out 15-20 years ago when the term "Ace" truly had meaning. I know EXACTLY what you mean by the term Roger, but does today's game???

I'm more excited about Canterino, if we can ever get him healthy. Also Zebbys Mathews, he's looked like an ace in the minors this year. Festa has command problems and Raya never throws more than 2-3 innings, which makes me think one or both of them are probably headed for a bullpen role which would lower their value.

There almost needs to be a new category for players like SWR (and Varland, or Martin, or Wallner) where they're not really prospects any longer but haven't established themselves as MLB players quite yet. They're the unfinished products who have the talent to play in MLB but might not have the finishing touches to put themselves in MLB for good. Because at a certain point it really doesn't make any sense to compare SWR to someone like Soto, when they're so far removed from each other in level.

I've always been a fan of SWR, and he was the poster child for how to get your developmental cycle completely screwed up, so seeing him having success is exciting. Three organizations before he turned 21, missing an entire (and critical) season because of the pandemic, getting an early promotion to AA that he almost certainly wasn't ready for, having a season interrupted by the national team where he didn't even get to pitch...by the time he got to MN I'd argue he was working on talent and guts alone. Great work by him and the staff to get him to a place where he can be a professional pitcher. Where he can be consistent enough to make a mechanical change and stick with it.

I think he's still going to have a bump or two along the way, but I would not be shocked at all for him to be a rotation mainstay for 2025.

So… Twins must have tweaked his slot angle once they got him, and now they're putting it back to where it was.  Seems about right.

A big strong 23 year old young man. Whether he ends up a #1, a #5 or somewhere in between, he could fill a valuable role for a long time. He still has room to grow and seems to have the make-up to be a consistent performer.

47 minutes ago, Einheri said:

So… Twins must have tweaked his slot angle once they got him, and now they're putting it back to where it was.  Seems about right.

Pure conjecture

Jaylin Nowlen is improving.

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think you have a personally adjusted viewpoint of what an "Ace" was. All pitchers threw tons of innings in the very old days, but it's been exceptionally uncommon to see complete games over the past 20 years.
10 years ago the Twins had 2 complete games. Hughes (1), Nolasco (1).
20 years ago the Twins had 4 complete games. Santana (1), Radke (1), Silva (1), Lohse (1).
30 years ago the Twins had 6 complete games. Tapani (4), Erickson (2).
40 years ago the Twins had 32 complete games. Viola (10), Smithson (10), Butcher (8), Schrom (3), Williams (1).
50 years ago the Twins had 43 complete games. Blyleven (19), Decker (11), Goltz (5), Albury (4), Corbin (1), Butler (2), Hughes (1)

I recognize 2 of the 7 names that threw complete games for the Twins in 1974. 

An ace, IMHO, is a guy who comes in and gives your team an excellent chance to win the game almost every time they take the ball. Like 80% of the time, they give a team 6+ innings and leave the game with an ERA under 4.00. When a pitcher steps onto the mound and you can automatically expect your team will win the game. That's an ace.

If you're asking whether or not we'll see a return to 85mph fastballs and 300 inning pitchers, the answer is no. Not ever.

Thanks, that's a good post bean. Amazing how linear that progression was (or digression, lol). Velocity and spin undoubtedly put stress on the body as well as the batter.

14.2 innings pitched for Marco Raya is sad. I had that by my second start in early April every year. I mean, it's the middle of May, and he hasn't been hurt?! I don't understand it at all and never will. This is what, year 3 or 4 and he isn't even stretched out to 50 pitches? That's when I'd really start to feel loose, 50 thru 100. It's ridiculous. I'm sorry. 

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Raya is going to be a long reliever/opener and Twins fans should probably get used to that concept. The Twins don't allow him to get to 60 pitches anymore. 56 pitches max this year, 54 pitches max last year.

Yes, I know that's what they'd like to do, but it still makes zero sense. You'll never have any idea what his capabilities could've been holding him to these ridiculous pitch count/ innings limits. I operated on strict pitch limits my whole life and do the same with every kid I've coached or private instructed. But this is some next level stuff. Grooming a guy to start for 2 or 3 innings is just, yuck. Some ivy league pencil neck who has never thrown a ball in his life came up with this. Glad I passed on that Princeton scholarship offer looking back now🤭

Here's a thought,pitching is hitting a target.And so far SWR is doing that,he is keeping the ball out of the middle of the zone.As for Varland his mentality is he can beat the hitter with his stuff.If you watch the two,one throws 93 and has kept the ball in the yard the other not so much at 98.