Reviewing the Incredibly Early Returns in the Jorge Polanco Trade

[Jeff K]

13 hours ago, EPEZRider said:

Polanco's injuries the past few years indicate he's breaking down and already on the downside of a nice career. It was best to move on and get something in return.

 

I agree.  I also see it as "addition by subtraction".  Polanco could only play 2nd base and that needs to be Julien.  I would not bet on Jorge returning to previous performance levels.  He appears to be on the downside of his career with diminishing returns.

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Some of the least objective baseball analysis I've ever read.

How's your guy Noah Miller doing, btw? Do you think you're ever going to retract your statements on Gabriel Gonzales or Rayne Doncon? 

My analysis is very objective not based on negative & positive hype on social media to sell FO transactions but on personal observations based on the player & the situation. 

Noah Miller is doing great, he's still the best SS prospect out there & an unbias analysis can see w/o a doubt his glove can play at the MLB level very easily, true he's not a slugger (some people wrongly evaluate a player solely on this) which is not important in being a SS. He is a contact & OBP hitter that LAD can see & develop, He also hit a walk-off in one of his 1st game that he played. That's who is.

So who's Gonzales & Doncon? Gonzales is a contact hitter that have shown some power potential for someone who is big, thinking that he'll grow into it. But the fact is he's short & is fully filled out & has reached his max. Because of his poor glove he's destined at RF/1B/DH. IMO he'll never make it to the MLB for the Twins because #1) The Twins have a large glut at these positions with many who are better than him. #2) because of his size he won't hit enough HRs to profile at his positions. #3) the Twins will try to change his approach & screw up his swing. Gonzales is much like Astudillo except Astudillo had a much better glove.  Doncon is a low lotto ticket with low upside. If he makes it to the MLB it'd be a long time coming & it'd be very little impact if any. So it's early but by looking truthfully at who they are & the situation we can make a fair judgement. 

CCHF you have been riding me because my analysis doesn't line with your social media hype filter. It's early to officially judge the Polanco trade except for DeSclavani. Social media hype declared DeSclavani would have a considerable impact on the Twins. How dare I to dispute this & to say he'd have no impact (stating my reasons)! Have you admitted you were wrong?

 

 

[DJL44]

46 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Noah Miller is doing great, he's still the best SS prospect out there

He's a .200 hitter in A-ball. That won't play in the major leagues no matter how good his glove is. He's nowhere near the best SS prospect in baseball. Would you trade Jackson Holliday for Noah Miller?

[Otaknam]

The Polanco trade was a good one IMO. The Twins had Julien as a replacement so that didn’t leave a hole at second, especially  with Julien’s obvious power potential and Polanco’s salary and injury history. Gonzales is a highly rated prospect. Topa may help the bullpen this year, given Baldelli’s lack of trust in his starters to go more than five innings. So lots of arms are needed to fill in for starters. DeSclafani fits the profile of the FO acquiring injured or soon to be injured pitchers, so no surprise there. His injury means that some minor league starters better be ready, like SWR.

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

So who's Gonzales & Doncon? Gonzales is a contact hitter that have shown some power potential for someone who is big, thinking that he'll grow into it. But the fact is he's short & is fully filled out & has reached his max. Because of his poor glove he's destined at RF/1B/DH.

??  He's listed 5'11", plenty tall for a power hitter.  (See Aaron, Mays, Mantle, Yaz, and of course Kirby P).  Now he's extraordinarily unlikely to have a HOF career like any of the above, but "too short" isn't going to hold him back from making the majors.

Reached his max?  He's 20.  He'll get stronger.  He'll mature mentally and emotionally.  His skills have room for development.  I've never met or seen anyone, barring injury, who maxed out their skills and physical development at 20 years old.

Yes, he's a corner outfielder at best defensively, but that's hardly a problem.  He's a very good prospect, nothing more or less.  He could flame out or get hurt, but I'd say it is highly likely he makes the majors at some point.  Nearly all top100 prospects do, even if many don't ever develop into regulars, much less stars.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He's a .200 hitter in A-ball. That won't play in the major leagues no matter how good his glove is. He's nowhere near the best SS prospect in baseball. Would you trade Jackson Holliday for Noah Miller?

I wish you quit cherry-picking what I write to keep everything in context, I separate the SS as the position & the hitter as something different. I don't see Noah as what he was with the Twins as a hitter & what he's starting out with the LAD but what he's projected & what LAD is able to develop him to be. They have plenty of time to do that.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wish you quit cherry-picking what I write to keep everything in context, I separate the SS as the position & the hitter as something different. I don't see Noah as what he was with the Twins as a hitter & what he's starting out with the LAD but what he's projected & what LAD is able to develop him to be. They have plenty of time to do that.

You wish I wouldn't quote you in my response?

Separating the SS as the position and the hitter would make sense if this was fastpitch softball and there was a FLEX position where you could use someone just for defense. It isn't. When people talk about prospects they're talking about the player's entire contribution.

Miller is all-glove, no-bat and he's hitting worse for the Dodgers repeating A-ball than he did for the Twins last season. His ceiling is futility infielder. It is easy to find guys like that at the league minimum as free agents. He was also signed out of high school which means he'll probably be a minor league free agent before he makes his MLB debut. As a prospect he has almost no value to an organization.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

I've never met or seen anyone, barring injury, who maxed out their skills and physical development at 20 years old.

Delmon Young is the only one I can think of.

[Thebigalguy]

The Twins dumped salary and no longer needed Polanco. It's a transition year. I'm just happy they didn't trade Kepler. DeSclafini's injury was predictable, of course, but not fated. I expected Varland to be better as a starter than he's proven to be so far, but I think he can fix it with the Saints and come back if there's another injury. Yes, it's rotten the way the FO uses duct tape and spit to meet the owner's demands to dump $30 million, but the team they have now was in the dumps a week ago because the bats were cold, not due to starting pitching. Paddack wins giving up 4 runs in 5 innings when the bats get hot. And Correa and Lewis aren't even back yet. I'm still optimistic, though the division looks tougher to crack than prognosticators expected. It's going to be a slog without Sonny and Kenta. More duct tape, more spit. DeSclafini came cheap, remember, with others thrown in who are proving or might prove to be significant acquisitions down the line. As for Polanco, I liked him and wish him well. I expect his bat will heat up soon. 

[joefish]

Assess it whenever you want. If it looks great, assess it now. Or wait. Right up to the point where it's dead.

It's not too early. It's never too late. 

It's just something to kick around. 

 

[mrcharlie]

On 4/27/2024 at 4:29 PM, Road trip said:

Polanco was one of my favorite players the past few years, but at this point it seems clear that the Twins needed to make room for Julien.

Julien OPS: .854

Polanco OPS: .588    

Julien was the better hitter last year too.  I wish we had gotten more for Polanco, but the Twins are better off just by opening up 2nd base for Julien, even without considering the large salary savings.

This is an interesting take on the trade.

In making room for Julien to play fulltime at second base we are a better younger team.  I do not like the FO argument for Descalfani to be a #5 starter even before the injury news.  With the future development of Gabby is where we may see how it shakes out.

[Riverbrian]

Edouard Julien is not a full time player. He has only started 3 of the last 6 games. 

Willi Castro and Carlos Santana are full time players.

Edouard Julien will not be starting tonight. So make it 3 out of 7. 

[Doctor Gast]

21 hours ago, Road trip said:

??  He's listed 5'11", plenty tall for a power hitter.  (See Aaron, Mays, Mantle, Yaz, and of course Kirby P).  Now he's extraordinarily unlikely to have a HOF career like any of the above, but "too short" isn't going to hold him back from making the majors.

Reached his max?  He's 20.  He'll get stronger.  He'll mature mentally and emotionally.  His skills have room for development.  I've never met or seen anyone, barring injury, who maxed out their skills and physical development at 20 years old.

Yes, he's a corner outfielder at best defensively, but that's hardly a problem.  He's a very good prospect, nothing more or less.  He could flame out or get hurt, but I'd say it is highly likely he makes the majors at some point.  Nearly all top100 prospects do, even if many don't ever develop into regulars, much less stars.

It's not impossible for a short person to be a HR hitter but it's harder & he has to be geared for it. Gonzales is an extreme contact hitter which I like but IMO makes it extremely difficult to achieve the HRs that profile at those positions. Like I stated before the Twins will try their darndest to convert him but to no avail & probably screw up his swing which makes him useless because he is who he is. We also have a large glut of players better profiled for those positions. His best value is to try to pawn him off before reality sets in on him.

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Edouard Julien is not a full time player. He has only started 3 of the last 6 games. 

Willi Castro and Carlos Santana are full time players.

Edouard Julien will not be starting tonight. So make it 3 out of 7. 

Yet, he is 2nd on the team in WAR.  He is going to start against every RHP which should be 70%.  You are using a small sample anomaly to misrepresent. this situation.  What's worse is you know it's a misrepresentation.  If we are going to cherry pick small samples, Julien has a wRC+ of 159 against LHP this year and Polanco's wRC+against LHP is 42.  

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Yet, he is 2nd on the team in WAR.  He is going to start against every RHP which should be 70%.  You are using a small sample anomaly to misrepresent. this situation.  What's worse is you know it's a misrepresentation.  

I'll give you 75% instead of 70%... Neither number is full time. 

What's worse is... by typing 70% you know what I'm saying.  

Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner Larnach are not full time players and now that Jeffers has introduced himself as a DH option... It appears that Kepler is also not a full time player anymore.  

Willi Castro has started the last 12 consecutive games and Santana has started the last 9 consecutive games. They are playing full time... and they have both done a nice job over these stretches. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 4/27/2024 at 4:01 PM, roger said:

No problem in my mind.  Would have liked less prospects and a better, younger starting pitcher.

Must take exception to how you worded the $30M payroll cut.  Isn’t it more accurate that many circumstances were the cause, mainly the unknown tv contract.  Isn’t it also possible, or even likely that last year’s payroll was over budget because of the Correa situation?

Correa was getting paid similarly in ‘22 - right?

Can’t have payroll revert to 2021 totals in 2024, particularly when the TV deal seemed to have been resolved at least for short-term. After winning a playoff series, it would seem that with Ticket Sales bump - mild ticket cost bump (inflation/success) - memorabilia/apparel sales - concessions increase…………ALL these seem to be able to handle an expected revenue bump of near $8M.

Chasing other $25M players doesn’t make sense for mid-market club but tying the F.O.’s hands w/o being able to TRY & sign arms in the $10-$16M range has put the team in a tough spot with starting pitching.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Edouard Julien is not a full time player. He has only started 3 of the last 6 games. 

Willi Castro and Carlos Santana are full time players.

Edouard Julien will not be starting tonight. So make it 3 out of 7. 

Furthermore, There is no room on this team for Jorge Polanco when Manny Margot, Christian Vasquez, and Jair Camargo have starts at DH.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Edouard Julien is not a full time player. He has only started 3 of the last 6 games. 

Willi Castro and Carlos Santana are full time players.

Edouard Julien will not be starting tonight. So make it 3 out of 7. 

Julien is on pace to hit 42 homers.....are you saying you'd rather have Polanco taking those AB's????

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Julien is on pace to hit 42 homers.....are you saying you'd rather have Polanco taking those AB's????

No I am not saying that. 

I have no problem with Julien. I like Julien... I wish he were full time. But he's not. 

He is not playing full-time! Rocco and the front office are the ones who have decided this... not me. 

This isn't hard to understand. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll give you 75% instead of 70%... Neither number is full time. 

The Twins only had 5 players with more than 75% games played in 2023. Correa led the team with 83% of games played. Did they not have any full-time players?

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins only had 5 players with more than 75% games played in 2023. Correa led the team with 83% of games played. Did they not have any full-time players?

And we both know why. 

Injuries (including Polanco) are the reasons why. 

And we have injuries again this year and there were injuries the year before that and the year before that and the year before that etc. 

Castro is full time right now because of injuries. Despite our injuries. Julien is still not full time. Kirilloff is still not full time.  

Is my point really this hard to understand?  

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

And we both know why. 

Injuries (including Polanco) are the reasons why. 

And we have injuries again this year and there were injuries the year before that and the year before that and the year before that etc. 

Castro is full time right now because of injuries. Despite our injuries. Julien is still not full time. Kirilloff is still not full time.  

Is my point really this hard to understand?  

I guess my point is, who cares if a player is "full-time"? Nobody plays 162 games anymore. If a player is "full-time" and not productive that's way worse than a player who is "part-time" and extremely productive.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I guess my point is, who cares if a player is "full-time"? Nobody plays 162 games anymore. If a player is "full-time" and not productive that's way worse than a player who is "part-time" and extremely productive.

I know that I don't care.

I've often said that we should all stop applying the word "bench" in front of players. Because Part-time becomes full time quickly.  

But... we have multiple people (not everyone) who still think Polanco was superfluous and therefore expandable. 

 

[cmoss84]

Out of curiosity...from the people on here who don't like the trade: what would you have traded for a player similar to Polanco (and salary)? Would you have wanted that player in the first place?

It very much looks like we came out, at the very least, even on the entire deal. And we have potential from who we received. How much potential does Polanco realistically have left?

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

No I am not saying that. 

I have no problem with Julien. I like Julien... I wish he were full time. But he's not. 

He is not playing full-time! Rocco and the front office are the ones who have decided this... not me. 

This isn't hard to understand. 

Julien has played in every game and leads the Twins in plate appearances.  Castro has a streak of complete games due only to Correa's injury.  Santana... well, Rocco seems to believe in Santana, and at the moment he's getting results.

By such measure, no one on the Twins is playing full time.  Julien ranks 119th in the majors in plate appearances. 

Rocco and the analytics team have worked out some kind of 3-D chess strategy with their platoons, and color me skeptical.  But singling out Julien or Castro or Santana obscures what's going on.

 

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I guess my point is, who cares if a player is "full-time"? Nobody plays 162 games anymore. If a player is "full-time" and not productive that's way worse than a player who is "part-time" and extremely productive.

I was still working on my post when yours showed up, so I just want to point out that the Twins seem to be taking this principle to a much greater extreme than any other team I have noticed.  Their platoon bat at second base leads the team in plate appearances.

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

But... we have multiple people (not everyone) who still think Polanco was superfluous and therefore expandable.

Polanco has always been defensively challenged due to his arm, and he's fast approaching the end of his useful shelf-life anywhere at all on the diamond.  Unless they would use him as a full-time DH, it would have been hard to find him enough plate appearances this year.  He was the right one to move.  I'm unimpressed by the return the FO managed to get, and expected him to be packaged with a pitching prospect for an established or MLB-ready starting pitcher, but apparently all the other FOs saw the same player in Jorge that ours did.

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 Nobody plays 162 games anymore. 

False.

https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/most-mlb-games-played-2023

 

Plenty of every day players in MLB. It makes zero sense to take your best players out of the game unless they're injured. Plenty of MLB managers don't. 

 

 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

False.

https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/most-mlb-games-played-2023

Plenty of every day players in MLB. It makes zero sense to take your best players out of the game unless they're injured. Plenty of MLB managers don't. 

6% of the players play > 156 games. 94% of the players don't. The average is less than one player per team. That's not "plenty" but then we're back to trivial nitpicking again.

[Riverbrian]

30 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Julien has played in every game and leads the Twins in plate appearances.  Castro has a streak of complete games due only to Correa's injury.  Santana... well, Rocco seems to believe in Santana, and at the moment he's getting results.

By such measure, no one on the Twins is playing full time.  Julien ranks 119th in the majors in plate appearances. 

Rocco and the analytics team have worked out some kind of 3-D chess strategy with their platoons, and color me skeptical.  But singling out Julien or Castro or Santana obscures what's going on.

 

It's not that obfuscated. 

As soon as first pitch tonight. The Twins will have faced 4 lefty starters in a 6 game stretch.

But... that's not even my point.

People keep justifying the loss of Polanco because of the presence of Julien. 

Injury? Manager Choice? whatever the reason? Castro and Santana are playing everyday and Julien still isn't.