Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

In a mostly quiet offseason, the front office focused much of its energy on building out quality depth in the bullpen, making it Minnesota's most-improved unit on paper. Good thing, too, because a pair of brutal injury developments in the late stage of camp will test that depth immediately.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

A deep, powerful bullpen can help you take over a game, and teams are embracing this as a potential market inefficiency. The Rays had one of the league's most effective staffs last year while ranking second among AL teams in relief innings, a model the Twins seem keen to adopt based on their offseason moves. 

The approach Minnesota used to sweep Toronto in the AL Wild Card Series – getting about five innings from the starter and then turning things over to a series of high-octane relief arms to mow through the second half of the game – probably represents the way they're envisioning a lot of wins this year. Sort out of necessity, given the rotation losses. 

The viability of that plan just took a bit of a hit. Before we get started, let's address the elephant in the room: On Monday, we learned that Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar will both open the season on the injured list. While their recovery timetables aren't fully known yet, it seems fair to say that Thielbar (hamstring) will miss weeks and Duran (oblique) will miss months.

Losing two of their most critical back-end relievers for significant portions of the season dramatically alters the outlook for the Twins bullpen. A week ago FanGraphs had them projected for the second-highest fWAR in the majors; now they're down to ninth. All things considered, however, that's not so bad. Let's break down how the bullpen shapes up in the wake of this week's news.

TWINS RELIEF PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Bullpen: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Jay Jackson, Steven Okert, Justin Topa, Josh Staumont
Depth: Jorge Alcala, Kody Funderburk, Daniel Duarte, Cole Sands, Ryan Jensen, Zack Weiss
Prospects: Marco Raya, Matt Canterino, Ronny Henriquez 

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 21st out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 9th out of 30

THE GOOD
Losing bullpen cornerstones like Duran and Thielbar would to be tough for any team to endure. But, as a hopeful silver lining, it's better to be missing them at the beginning of the season than the end. Hopefully the two stalwarts can eventually come back strong, and maybe even benefit from having fresher arms in the second half. In the meantime, few teams would be as well equipped to endure the losses of a Duran and a Thielbar as Minnesota – a major credit to their peers in the bullpen mix.

Jax and Stewart were tracking to be Duran's top setup men, and now they'll elevate to the top spots. Given his health history, it's a small victory that Stewart has thus far escaped the attrition, and he looks to be in top form at camp. Jax has looked even better, flashing improved stuff and dominating hitters like no other pitcher on the spring circuit.

 

Another spring standout is Alcala, who may find himself thrust into the Opening Day picture following the injuries to Duran and Thielbar. Looking to rebound from a lost season, Alcala's been healthy in camp and he's throwing fire. He has the ability to factor into the late innings alongside Jax and Stewart, giving the Twins a trio of upper-90s flamethrowers to offset the loss of their ultimate flamethrower. Staumont could give them a fourth, if he can recapture that spark.

 

Even with Thielbar down, the Twins have a pair of good lefties on hand to start the season. Okert was acquired from Miami in the Nick Gordon trade, adding a proven veteran alongside the inexperienced Funderburk, who showed much promise in his 2023 debut and earned a spot on the playoff roster.

Right-handers Topa and Jackson were acquired in the offseason to provide further veteran stability to the relief corps, and each offers a fair amount of intrigue in his own right. Through minor-league signings and waiver claims, the Twins have also set themselves up to have an assortment of interesting arms available in Triple-A, including Duarte, Weiss, Henriquez, Jensen and others. 

THE BAD
There's no sugarcoating the losses of Thielbar and especially Duran, who is one of the league's elite closers and could be at risk of missing nearly half the season. These soft-tissue injuries are scary, especially for a pitcher in his late 30s and another who throws harder than anyone else in the league. The Twins need to take every precaution to avoid a setback that would tank either of their seasons, meaning they team will have to make peace with life without them.

 

These early breakdowns are not a great sign in a season where the bullpen figures to wear a heavy burden. The Twins will be hard-pressed to backfill the rotation innings they lost from Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Last year Minnesota ranked third among all major-league teams in starting pitcher innings; this year it's tough to imagine them coming close. 

In theory, the idea of meeting this increased demand with sheer volume of quality relief arms makes sense. But in practice things get murkier. This bullpen will probably be called upon to provide four or five innings in a game regularly. Having all these levels of depth in the majors and minors is nice, but you can only have eight relievers available at any time, and as we've seen time and again: it's the ultimate position of volatility. 

The increased burden will be felt not just by the bullpen at a macro level, but by Twins relievers individually – something Rocco Baldelli more or less acknowledged when I was in Fort Myers last weekend.

He shared with reporters, "Pete [Maki] in his last pitchers meeting, made the statement to the entire group: there might be a couple guys in this room who are likely gonna throw one inning, but everybody else who is a bullpen arm will have to throw more than one inning. So it's a good statement to give to the group."

"It just mentally prepares them for what's to come," he continued. "There might be a few guys that haven't thrown two innings in a while. They're gonna have to."

That's a potentially daunting proposition. Duran and Thielbar are sidelined already, and quite a few other pitchers in this mix have significant injury histories. Baldelli cannot afford to run his remaining premium arms into the ground in June and July. He knows that. But he's got a challenge in front of him, especially if things go the wrong way on a few flips the coin elsewhere. During the offseason he lost his most rubber-armed reliever in Emilio Pagán, a departure that looms especially large now.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The front office was very intentional about assembling a deep reserve of relief pitching depth in the offseason, to the point that this position was overflowing with capable options at the start of camp. Two key injuries later, they're merely flowing with options, but there's still enough here to feel solid about the way things will take shape on Opening Day – assuming they can avoid any further attrition in the next week. 

That now becomes the story going forward: can these guys hold up? Already down two workhorses, the Twins bullpen will be counted on for a lot of innings this year. Navigating the day-to-day needs of the season while trying to mitigate workloads and solidify roles on the fly will present a major challenge for Baldelli. He will need to hope the front office chose wisely in its additions and Maki can work his magic once again.

Catch up on the rest of our spring position previews:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

 

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[Doctor Gast]

IMO it's great the Twins shut down Duran & Thielbar right away & that they're not arm problems, Hopefully, the next guys on the list will step up & not anyone be overstressed that the load will be evenly distributed throughout the corp. That Duran & Thielbar come back stronger than ever. IMO long relief is needed.

[mike8791]

Hate to burst your bubble here, Nick, but I've got my doubts because:

1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations?  A big question mark in my mind.

2. Yes, I think Stewart looks like a stud if he can stay healthy!  Again, a big if here.

3.  You can talk about Alcala's stuff but yesterday, after a horrid 9th inning against Tiger scrubs, he was taken out as a precautionary measure due to hand soreness.  Does anyone believe he can be depended on going forward with his injury track record?

4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST.  But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place.

Granted this is a pessimistic slant but isn't it just as likely as your take?

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Bullpen is worse off after those injuries for sure, but still pretty stacked. I've been on the Jax bandwagon for a while now, Stewart proved he's got the stuff to be a shutdown guy last year, Alcala has shined and was only taken out because of a comebacker that nicked his pitching hand, Ronny Henriquez has been under-the-radar, Okert has looked very good and it seems like they found some interesting non-roster arms in Duarte and Brigham.

Losing Duran potentially until June hurts, but they've positioned the pen well to absorb that loss as best as you can. 

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Hate to burst your bubble here, Nick, but I've got my doubts because:

1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations?  A big question mark in my mind.

2. Yes, I think Stewart looks like a stud if he can stay healthy!  Again, a big if here.

3.  You can talk about Alcala's stuff but yesterday, after a horrid 9th inning against Tiger scrubs, he was taken out as a precautionary measure due to hand soreness.  Does anyone believe he can be depended on going forward with his injury track record?

4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST.  But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place.

Granted this is a pessimistic slant but isn't it just as likely as your take?

Yep, they'd all save everyone a lot of time and trouble if they just went out and shot themselves.

[DJL44]

Lots of depth but I have no idea what the pecking order is.

[Linus]

I hope they follow through with the idea that most of the pen will be expected to go two innings sometimes. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Hate to burst your bubble here, Nick, but I've got my doubts because:

1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations?  A big question mark in my mind.

2. Yes, I think Stewart looks like a stud if he can stay healthy!  Again, a big if here.

3.  You can talk about Alcala's stuff but yesterday, after a horrid 9th inning against Tiger scrubs, he was taken out as a precautionary measure due to hand soreness.  Does anyone believe he can be depended on going forward with his injury track record?

4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST.  But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place.

Granted this is a pessimistic slant but isn't it just as likely as your take?

This is reality. I agree.

[MMMordabito]

2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST.  But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place.

This seems like a hasty dismissal of a group.

Okert has actually looked good, and Jackson looks completely servicable as 5th or 6th guy.

Topa's looked rough, but he does have a .500+ BABIP against.

I'll give you Staumont, and I won't be surprised if he gets optioned and is replaced by Duarte once Duran and Thielbar hit the IL.

[big dog]

4 hours ago, mike8791 said:

1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations?  A big question mark in my mind.

 

Well, having him start the ninth with the bases empty seems like a good start toward solving that problem.

[bean5302]

Meh. The bullpen is still a major strength for the Twins.

Funderburk is probably substantially better than Thielbar at this point.
Stewart and Jax make the loss of Duran much less severe with Alcala likely filling the 2nd open spot as a lower leverage middle reliever.

[DocBauer]

No question Duran and Thielbar out for a month, maybe longer, is a huge blow. (I'd expect Thielbar back first) But all the arms we've added this past offseason HAS offered/allowed depth we haven't had in YEARS.

In the past we'd be asking "great, now who can we add, who can we call up, whoa is us." Instead of being FORCED to keep someone or bring someone up to fill a spot, we're still figuring out who stays. 

I'm not oblivious to what we've, temporarily, lost. I'm focused on what we HAVE for the next month or so to work with. I'd keep Jax in the role he knows, one IP, occasionally a little more. And I'd use Stewart for ONE IP at a time to regulate his arm. Okert has had a solid career thus far, and becomes my LH set up guy for now. Until he takes that job away, I'm keeping Funderburk in the role of 6-7 inning guy. Topa would SEEM to be a 6-8 inning guy based on what he did for Seattle. Alcala is a wild card. In the second half of 2021 Alacala found a change that started to work. And he was DOMINATE that second half. And then 2yrs of injuries followed. The health and velocity appear to be back. If he can have that change working again, even close, he's a legitimate presence in the Pen.

There is depth and arms available to POTENTIALLY allow for a still solid pen for the next month plus. Especially if the offense produces as capable of and the rotation stays solid. The Twins pen, right now, is still deeper than it's been a lot of previous seasons. I hesitate to use "if things break right" because of that depth and potential. I say "hesitate" because the arms are there if they just don't suddenly implode. But the talent and depth are there to be OK, and hold even serve, for a month or two, before Thielbar and Duran return.

 

[Doctor Wu]

With these injuries, plus his performance so far in ST, I think Alcala makes the roster. Plus, Duarte has looked pretty good in his outings, and he can pitch a couple of innings if needed. Having Duran on the IL obviously hurts the team, but hopefully this current plethora of arms we will be enough to hold the fort. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/21/2024 at 10:01 AM, mike8791 said:

Hate to burst your bubble here, Nick, but I've got my doubts because:

1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations?  A big question mark in my mind.

2. Yes, I think Stewart looks like a stud if he can stay healthy!  Again, a big if here.

3.  You can talk about Alcala's stuff but yesterday, after a horrid 9th inning against Tiger scrubs, he was taken out as a precautionary measure due to hand soreness.  Does anyone believe he can be depended on going forward with his injury track record?

4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST.  But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place.

Granted this is a pessimistic slant but isn't it just as likely as your take?

Everyone performing poorly is not likely - everyone getting hurt that’s been hurt isn’t likely. Will guys have bad outings and miss some time, certainly. There are still 11-12 options that have reasonable ability on the Pen depth chart, regardless of their Spring results in ‘24.

Do we think Buxton & Jeffers are going to have over 1,000 OPS+ because they do now in Spring Training?

Your point, anything is possible.