The Twins Stand in the Center of a Power Vacuum in the American League

[Nick Nelson]

Traditional powerhouses like New York and Houston show signs of fading, at least temporarily. For an upstart contender like the Minnesota Twins, the window is wide open. Can they seize this opportunity and take command as the big boss in the American League?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

For most of the past few decades, there's been at least one monolithic kingpin looming over the American League, the so-called "team to beat." For a club like the Minnesota Twins, saddled with certain limitations and disadvantages by their market and ownership, going up against the likes of the New York Yankees and Houston Astros has often felt (and played out) like an unfair proposition. 

Those storied franchises play in two of the country's biggest cities, and they reap the benefits in terms of resources, routinely ranking among the highest payrolls in baseball. Their rosters tend to be star-studded and deeply experienced. It's no coincidence that, of Minnesota's last eight trips to the playoffs, they've been ousted by either New York or Houston in seven. 

The Twins have plenty of company in this regard. The Yankees were a dynastic postseason force around the turn of the century, reaching the World Series seven times from 1996 through 2009 and winning five titles. Then, New York's long stretch of domination finally reached an end. From 2010 to 2016, the AL felt like more of an open race, with the Yankees failing to hold strong in October and even missing the playoffs three times.

Notably, four of the seven World Series during this span featured teams from the American League Central: Detroit in 2012, Kansas City in 2014 and 2015, and Cleveland in 2016. No team from the division has gone since, of course, because starting in 2017, the Houston Astros dynasty was officially underway.

Houston has been to the ALCS seven straight years, reaching the World Series four times and winning it twice. Not since New York's late '90s run had any team in baseball managed such a prolific and consistent run of postseason success. They've been blocking the way for other AL contenders in similar fashion.

Last year, as the Twins prepared to face the Astros in the playoffs, I spat out a bit of a hot take: "Houston looks like a declining dynasty whose über-impressive reign in the AL may be reaching its end." Not your older brother's Astros, I declared.

They went ahead and shut me up by defeating Minnesota 3-1 in the series to advance to the ALCS, where they fell to the Rangers. But I still believe the underlying point--that many of the Astros' key players are aging and showing signs of decline--is a valid one that could influence the American League's outlook, this year and beyond. Already, 41-year-old ace Justin Verlander is dealing with shoulder issues that will force him to open the season on the injured list. 

And what about the good ol' Yankees? Now going on 15 years removed from their last World Series appearance, they are looking to revive their reputation as a powerhouse, and they made an emphatic move to assert themselves as such with the blockbuster addition of Juan Soto. But in contrast to all the good vibes and positive storylines in Twins camp, New York is besieged by early challenges with their most critical players. Gerrit Cole is experiencing elbow issues and is slated for an MRI. Aaron Judge is reportedly feeling "beat up" already by the spring training grind, after missing nearly two months last year with a toe injury that he acknowledged will require "constant maintenance" going forward.

It also must be noted that, even with Cole winning the Cy Young and Judge posting a 1.019 OPS last year, the Yankees still only won 82 games and finished in fourth place. Despite their star power and MLB-leading payroll, the Yankees just aren't all that imposing. They're gonna have a hell of a fight on their hands just getting out of the AL East.

The landscape of the American League feels very different from the National League, where two "super teams" are entering the season as heavy favorites. It'd be a surprise if anyone gets past both the Dodgers and Braves, though as the Diamondbacks showed us, it can happen. Meanwhile, in the AL, plenty of teams have legit shots, even if Houston and New York remain slight favorites. Here's a look at the current pennant odds for both leagues, per FanDuel:

NL Winner Odds:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (+165)
2. Atlanta Braves (+215)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (+800)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (+1600)
5. Chicago Cubs (+1700)

AL Winner Odds

1. Houston Astros (+380)
2. New York Yankees (+460)
3. Texas Rangers (+600)
4. Baltimore Orioles (+650)
5. Seattle Mariners (+900)
6. Minnesota Twins (+900)
7. Toronto Blue Jays (+1000)
8. Tampa Bay Rays (+1300)

That's eight AL teams with better odds to reach the World Series than all but three NL teams. An open race.

With the American League's two highest-spending and most imperious teams looking vulnerable, the window is now thrust open for other aspiring contenders to break through and take a shot at establishing their own dynasties. The Twins, who have the best odds of any AL team to win their division, are obviously at the center of that mix.

They'll need to fend off the defending champs, of course. Then again, the Texas Rangers, too, had a quiet offseason amid TV revenue uncertainty. (One of their biggest additions was Tyler Mahle.) The Rays are always going to be a factor. The Orioles are on the rise, bolstered by the addition of Corbin Burnes. The Jays will be formidable again. The Mariners are in a similar spot to the Twins, with a powerful lineup and good pitching. Fortuitously, all of these other teams happen to reside outside of the Central, meaning they'll be battling each other (and the Yankees and Astros) all year while Minnesota is poised for relatively smooth sailing if they play up to expectations. 

The opportunity in front of the Twins to rise above this clustered pack is part of why I'm so disappointed that they chose to dial back this offseason, rather than putting their foot on the gas. The failure to replace Sonny Gray with another frontline talent sticks out as a notable miss, but there's always the trade deadline. 

With or without Gray, Minnesota does have all the ingredients for a hugely successful season and deep playoff run: ace starter, high-powered bullpen, and a star-studded lineup featuring proven October performers. Don't sleep on them as the potential best team in the American League and No. 1 seed for the playoffs. Relative to past years, there is little standing in their way--other, perhaps, than themselves.

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[Karbo]

I agree that the Twins should be one of the favorites in the AL. I still like Texas, Houston, and the Yankees as top dogs. The Twins have a lot of if's to this season, such as if Buxton is healthy, if Correa can stay healthy, If the top 3 starters can take a step forward, or if the pen can be anywhere near as good as some think it will be. IMO the Twins will need to hit their way to a title.

[Trov]

The Yankees are not that good of a team as a whole.  Outside of Cole they have huge questions in pitching, and we do not know what will happen to him.  We will know more if he is out long term with injury.  Rondon had 2 straight good years, in contract years, and outside those 2 seasons he has been back of rotation at best type guy. The rest of the rotation is built off either guys that have never had sustained success, or aging and you never know when they will stop being even average. 

Their lineup is full of aging guys, outside Soto and Volpe.  Judge has a toe issue that may become a career shortener, where he may be limited to more a DH type with lower speed.  The problem is they still have Stanton in similar spot. 

Overall, they do not worry me as a top team. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Is that Whitey Ford and Yogi Berra in the photo?

[Old Twins Cap]

Can we stop talking about the loss of Sonny Gray?

He had his chance and the Twins lost more of his starts than they won, including losing the crucial playoff game against Houston.  Now he's injured, and at 34, he wasn't going to carry the Twins beyond the 2nd round of playoffs. 

The only thing that will would be some "career years" from studs like Buxton, Correa, Kepler and the emergence of their young guns, Lewis, Kiriloff, Julien and Wallner.

Plus a strong bullpen.  If they need starters, they can always go out and get a decent arm.

We see it every year, the playoffs are about short starts and lots of good arms out of the Bullpen.

 

 

[Whitey333]

Great article as always Nick.  I'm hoping the Twins go deep in the playoffs as well.  After an off season filled with nothing but payroll cutbacks and the Twins handling of the TV contract, and the poor public relations "job" of the Twins I find myself feeling not so enthusiastic.  I've followed the Twins for 60 years and this is about as low of a feeling I've ever had about them.  I will continue to follow them and wish them well.  But having not been able to watch them on tv the last several years I just don't feel connected anymore.  They promised 4 years ago they were fixing the TV situation.  5 years later most of us cant even watch them in our homes.  I don't like being used and lied to.  That is the feeling the Twins have given me the past few seasons.

[Jocko87]

This is the first time in those years that I see a path to going head to head on a stud by stud basis. The teams in the past would have been true Cinderella stories. Lots has to go right with health and regression but the Twins are much more in this arena than before.

Looking back on the 2020 series with the Astros with hindsight the roster levels are just different. Last year it looks much better in balance.

[Doctor Gast]

This off-season we had only 1 primary need & that was another postseason SP. IMO Snell & Montgomery weren't the answer even if we had another 30MM lying around. IMO Luzardo was our best bet via trade. But the Twins opt-out on quality that we needed for quantity we didn't need. You might say we still have the deadline. IMO deadline trades are more expensive & with more unknowns & our history isn't that great.

BAL will be a force to deal with and unlike the Twins, SEA revamped & filled their main holes which IMO is a better team. HOU is still a force to deal with, NYY fired their hitting coach & hired Rowson, if the Yanks abandon their hitting philosophy & let Rowson work individually with his hitters plus the addition of Soto NYY offense will be awesome. But if Cole is out they are beatable.

We have a great core that could dominate for years but we are missing a couple of major pieces.

[bean5302]

The Twins are almost certainly a playoff team, IMHO. Elite bullpen, strong lineup, high floor rotation.

In order to make a deep playoff run, the Twins need a higher ceiling rotation. Their current options won't cut it beyond Lopez. That said, we're months away from the trade deadline, and something truly unexpected in terms of development could happen. With the organization once again in a position to "put a boot to the throat", they once again punted.
Playoff Rotation FGDC WAR projections
Astros - Valdez (3.7), Brown (2.3), Verlander (2.2), Javier (1.7)
Yankees - Cole (3.5), Rodon (3.1), Stroman (2.0), Cortes (2.0)
Rangers - Eovaldi (2.3), Gray (2.3), Scherzer (2.0), Dunning (1.8)
Orioles - Burnes (3.8), Rodriguez (2.6), Kremer (1.8), Bradish (1.3)
Mariners - Castillo (3.8), Kirby (3.7), Gilbert (3.0), Miller (1.6) 
Twins - Lopez (4.1), Ryan (2.8), Ober (2.1), Paddack (2.0)
Jays - Gausman (4.4), Bassitt (2.9), Berrios (2.4), Kikuchi (1.9)
Rays - Eflin (3.6), Civale (2.0), Baz (1.5), Bradley (1.4)

The Twins are pretty middle of the pack in terms of projected top rotation right now, but it also depends on some guys I'm not particularly bullish on so I'm more bearish than the projections here. With Snell and Montgomery still out there, and Snell looking to consider short term offers, it just makes too much sense to me to lock in another front of the rotation option without diving into our top prospects yet again as the season progresses.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

The Yankees are not that good of a team as a whole.  Outside of Cole they have huge questions in pitching, and we do not know what will happen to him.  We will know more if he is out long term with injury.  Rondon had 2 straight good years, in contract years, and outside those 2 seasons he has been back of rotation at best type guy. The rest of the rotation is built off either guys that have never had sustained success, or aging and you never know when they will stop being even average. 

Their lineup is full of aging guys, outside Soto and Volpe.  Judge has a toe issue that may become a career shortener, where he may be limited to more a DH type with lower speed.  The problem is they still have Stanton in similar spot. 

Overall, they do not worry me as a top team. 

They remind me of the Padres - lots of stars, but not a cohesive team.  I am not a fan of the Yankees nor do I expect them to even win their division.

 

[mikelink45]

My simple answer is NO.  The Orioles are so loaded with young talent that it can spill over into some massive trades if they want.  I take them for the next rising AL power.  

The Twins need to be concerned with their own division where the Tigers have a higher rated minor league and lots of young players who are playing hard for Hinch.

We will win this season.  But I list the rising powers as:

1. Orioles
2. Rangers
3. Twins

and then I look at the Mariners, Blue Jays, and always the Rays with the Astros not ready to fade yet. 

[Riverbrian]

On March 12th, 2024 - I rule nobody out in the Central. 

Not even the White Sox. 

There are surprises both positive and negative every single year. 

Opening Day 2023: The DBacks were +10,000 to win the World Series. The Mets were +600

I know it seems like a long time ago but the White Sox were favored to win the AL Central last year. 

Respect Everyone. Strap it on... 162 games to determine who gets a playoff spot. 

Well... Not the A's this year... but everyone else. 

[PatPfund]

This team is in such a better place than a year ago. Healthy Buxton, healthy Correa, healthy Kirilloff, healthy Lewis, healthy Paddack, potential full seasons from Julien and Wallner, a seemingly rejuvenated Max Kepler, a serious trio of impact players likely sitting at AAA (Miranda, Martin, Lee), a nice 4th OF in Margot, and maybe one of the best catching tandems in baseball.

In many ways, this was a good off-season to not spend a lot of money, and lean into the development of our own talent. (In fact, I'm pretty sure the Twins wasted nearly $7 million on Santana, who looks cooked, and Jackson, who looks unremarkable and has no options which isn't ideal for a back-of-the-'pen arm.)

Still, like many, I wish we'd nabbed a #3 or higher SP. I love Varland as this year's Ober, but Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off years of injury-limited pitching, and our rotational depth is likely to be tested early and often. (Though, if wishes were fishes, we'd all...)

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article as always Nick.  I'm hoping the Twins go deep in the playoffs as well.  After an off season filled with nothing but payroll cutbacks and the Twins handling of the TV contract, and the poor public relations "job" of the Twins I find myself feeling not so enthusiastic.  I've followed the Twins for 60 years and this is about as low of a feeling I've ever had about them.  I will continue to follow them and wish them well.  But having not been able to watch them on tv the last several years I just don't feel connected anymore.  They promised 4 years ago they were fixing the TV situation.  5 years later most of us cant even watch them in our homes.  I don't like being used and lied to.  That is the feeling the Twins have given me the past few seasons.

Is that accurate, most Minnesotan’s can’t watch the Twins? I live in Ohio. I hear complaints but assume it’s the small minority of fans that have an issue.

I have Prime Network for about $10/mo. ……..with that( all kinds of movies, and other programming) I sign up for the MLB Subscription and I get every game played in MLB, every day. $149/year. Twins got blacked out twice last year on Friday nights when Apple TV had their game.

Watched Spring training game yesterday. Just turned on game today  at 2:00 Eastern & Ryan is throwing in the 4th v. the Tigers. Ryan up to 62 pitches & only 1 hit & 1 run through 4. He cut his hair! …………….I have it so I don’t get the problems BUT I do understand not everyone has same access to programming/streaming etc.

Fan since ‘67………..“Used” seems like a dramatic term. If that’s how you feel, I guess it makes sense.

Personally, am upbeat about the F.O. and the personnel they’ve assembled. Disappointed in Organization’s spending reverting back to 2021 level! Think the Team has a good chance to build on what they put together last year - offense COULD be sneaky good!

[JD-TWINS]

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Is that accurate, most Minnesotan’s can’t watch the Twins? I live in Ohio. I hear complaints but assume it’s the small minority of fans that have an issue.

I have Prime Network for about $10/mo. ……..with that( all kinds of movies, and other programming) I sign up for the MLB Subscription and I get every game played in MLB, every day. $149/year. Twins got blacked out twice last year on Friday nights when Apple TV had their game.

Watched Spring training game yesterday. Just turned on game today  at 2:00 Eastern & Ryan is throwing in the 4th v. the Tigers. Ryan up to 62 pitches & only 1 hit & 1 run through 4. He cut his hair! …………….I have it so I don’t get the problems BUT I do understand not everyone has same access to programming/streaming etc.

Fan since ‘67………..“Used” seems like a dramatic term. If that’s how you feel, I guess it makes sense.

Personally, am upbeat about the F.O. and the personnel they’ve assembled. Disappointed in Organization’s spending reverting back to 2021 level! Think the Team has a good chance to build on what they put together last year - offense COULD be sneaky good!

My fault on the Ryan line from today’s game above………I got the two lines reversed. Ryan gave up a run on 3 hits. ……Cole Sands looks like he’s making a case for 8th spot in Pen.

[Nick Nelson]

5 hours ago, Old Twins Cap said:

Can we stop talking about the loss of Sonny Gray?

He had his chance and the Twins lost more of his starts than they won, including losing the crucial playoff game against Houston.  Now he's injured, and at 34, he wasn't going to carry the Twins beyond the 2nd round of playoffs.

People aren't talking about not having Sonny Gray this year. They're talking about the failure to even try and replace what he provided, which was stable and reliable front-of-rotation impact, and that did play a very important role in their success last year.

I don't know why people keep throwing around this stat about having a losing record in his starts like it's meaningful. He was the Cy Young runner-up! Imagine what their record would've been in those games with Anthony DeSclafani starting them.

[sweetmusicviola16]

It's going to be the Orioles for the next decade. They are already rock solid and will only get better and better. Elias is solid and will make the right moves imo to take them to the next level and beyond.

The Twins? As stated in the article they dialed back this off season when they should have turned on the after burners. Sorry but DeSclafani, Santana and Margot are the signings of a rebuild. Not ateam that takes Championship aspirations seriously. We'll win some games this year. But so will Detroit. Going to be close.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

...Is that accurate, most Minnesotan’s can’t watch the Twins? I live in Ohio. I hear complaints but assume it’s the small minority of fans that have an issue.

I have Prime Network for about $10/mo. ……..with that( all kinds of movies, and other programming) I sign up for the MLB Subscription and I get every game played in MLB, every day. $149/year. Twins got blacked out twice last year on Friday nights when Apple TV had their game...

If you live in Minnesota and you want to stream Twins games through Amazon...
Step 1) Cable TV premium subscription (which includes Bally Sports North). This is required for anybody who lives in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa or part of Wisconsin.
Step 2) Ballys Sports North subscription.
Step 3) MLB.TV subscription
Step 4) Amazon Prime subscription
Now you can stream Twins games on Amazon, though if you have a sub to MLB.TV, you don't need Prime. You can use the MLB.TV app, which you also don't need to stream because you could just use the Bally Sports North app, but Twins games are blacked out unless the account is tied to a local cable company where you've got a package carrying Ballys.

So yes. The blackout policies and subscription policies requiring people to have a premium cable TV package (which includes Ballys Sports North), blocks out a lot of potential fans.

[gman]

I'm looking forward to seeing the Twins develop as power, not just in the central, but in the Al as a whole. I don't expect them to win the World Series and I won't be disappointed if they don't even get there. They got a lot of young talent that is starting to matriculate and should add some more this year.

[Mike Sixel]

21 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

It's going to be the Orioles for the next decade. They are already rock solid and will only get better and better. Elias is solid and will make the right moves imo to take them to the next level and beyond.

The Twins? As stated in the article they dialed back this off season when they should have turned on the after burners. Sorry but DeSclafani, Santana and Margot are the signings of a rebuild. Not ateam that takes Championship aspirations seriously. We'll win some games this year. But so will Detroit. Going to be close.

The O's owner loves money, and not spending it, so that might hold them back some, but their FO and development staff are on fire the last few years, and are loaded, so we'll see....but yes, they are going to be great.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, gman said:

I'm looking forward to seeing the Twins develop as power, not just in the central, but in the Al as a whole. I don't expect them to win the World Series and I won't be disappointed if they don't even get there. They got a lot of young talent that is starting to matriculate and should add some more this year.

agreed, big fan of the players coming soon ...

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/12/2024 at 3:28 PM, Nick Nelson said:

People aren't talking about not having Sonny Gray this year. They're talking about the failure to even try and replace what he provided, which was stable and reliable front-of-rotation impact, and that did play a very important role in their success last year.

I don't know why people keep throwing around this stat about having a losing record in his starts like it's meaningful. He was the Cy Young runner-up! Imagine what their record would've been in those games with Anthony DeSclafani starting them.

It is meaningful if you aren’t sensitive……it’s not about Sonny Gray it’s about winning games. Gray had it tough due to mediocre run support & typically going up against the other teams Top pitcher.

So Team doesn’t need to replace Gray’s innings with one guy nor do they need to be anywhere near his ERA in those innings to be successful. The Team needs to be competitive in the 32-33 starts that Gray would have made. It’s about ‘24 & not feeling bad because a guy didn’t get better breaks last year.

The Team doesn’t red a 2.79 ERA starter. The team won’t miss a 2.79 ERA starter IF they are competitive and win half of those 32 starts.

Better offense (a bit) and better Pen top to bottom doesn’t replace the starter but it should help win games.