Twins Video
If the Minnesota Twins want to reach the ALCS, they're going to need to get past a team that's gotten there in six consecutive seasons. The Astros have flat-out dominated the American League, bookending their run of amazing success with World Series championships in 2017* and 2023. Houston also quickly dispatched Minnesota in the 2020 playoffs, on top of all that.
You look at a franchise with these bona fides -- and a roster featuring names like Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu -- and it's easy to feel intimidated. Very understandable. I'm not saying the Astros are an unimposing match-up.
But they ain't what they once were. And that leaves the door open for the Twins to dethrone the defending champs.
Let's start with Justin Verlander, the Game 1 starter for Houston. He's been really good this year. And while he has been able to channel his legendary peak form on occasion, he hasn't done so very consistently and it's reflected in his decidedly human overall numbers.
Verlander posted a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts this year. Very good, but also his highest ERA since 2017. His FIP (3.85) was JV's highest since 2008; his K-rate the lowest since 2015. The 40-year-old posted zero double-digit strikeout games this year after putting up four last year and 13 in 2019. (He missed 2020/21 with Tommy John surgery.)
It seems silly to downplay a pitcher whose numbers were as good as Verlander's this year, even if they weren't quite to the level of a runaway Cy Young winner like in 2022. But it's helpful to separate the current version of Verlander from the one burned into many of our brains. He's not the same guy.
That's a trend across much of this roster, which is noticeably less deep than usual with high-caliber performers. Framber Valdez remains excellent alongside Verlander, but no other starter on Houston's staff had a FIP below 4.37 (all five Twins starters did). The Houston bullpen is strong of course, but not as scary as it's been in the past; Ryan Pressly posted his highest ERA and home run rate, and his lowest strikeout rate, as an Astro.
On the offensive side, Abreu is a player whose history and reputation definitely clash with on-field performance. Twins fans know him as a long-time iron man and elite run producer from his days with the White Sox. Houston signed him early in the offseason, envisioning him as an upgrade to their championship offense.
Instead, Abreu was a massive disappointment in the first of a three-year, $60 million deal, putting forth the worst season of his career by a light year. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as a sub-replacement level player. He didn't hit his first home run until the end of May, and finished with an 87 OPS+ that would've ranked 11th among qualified Twins hitters.
It seemed as though the effects of aging avalanched upon Abreu suddenly and starkly at age 36, making this signing look like a rare colossal whiff for the Astros -- perhaps another indicator this once-invincible operation is losing its fastball.
Aside from Abreu, Houston's lineup still features several legitimate superstar hitters coming off great seasons, including Altuve, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They ranked third among AL teams in OPS and runs scored. This offense needs to be taken very seriously, even if somewhat diminished from previous iterations.
That's true of the Houston Astros as a team. But they are definitely diminished. Ninety wins in the AL West is nothing to scoff at but it's far below the standard set by Houston in recent full seasons, which have seen them win 106, 95, 107, 103, and 101 games dating back to 2017.
Within that 90-72 record, there were some signs that could be considered troubling from their perspective. The Astros lost more games (43) than they won (42) against teams with a record above .500. They also had a losing record at home (39-42), where they'll host the first two games of the ALDS.
Last year, by comparison, the Astros were 42-27 against winning teams and 55-26 at Minute Maid Park.
Everywhere you look, you see the signs: this dynasty appears to be fading. The hallmarks of Houston's greatness are growing less abundant and radiant, and it's been apparent enough in the head-to-head matchups: Minnesota went 4-2 against the Astros this year, after going 0-6 against them last year.
That doesn't mean Houston's going to be an easy assignment, or that the Twins necessarily should be favored in anyone's mind, but it does mean they're catching the Astros at a relatively good time. The door is open for the Twins to try and make a statement that the power balance in the American League is ready to shift.
Vanquishing the Yankees would be nice, but when you think about it, there's no bigger statement possible than going into Houston and taking it to these defending champs and perennial finalists, while assuming their surrendered mantle in the ALCS.
That opportunity is now in front of a power-hitting, power-pitching Twins team that -- by the way -- certainly ain't your grandfather's Minnesota Twins.
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