These Ain't Your Older Brother's Houston Astros

[Nick Nelson]

The old trope 'This ain't your grandfather's [whatever],' which muses on how things change over time, doesn't feel quite apt when describing the very recently unstoppable Houston Astros. 

So we'll use a more proximate hypothetical relation in driving at this basic point: Houston looks like a declining dynasty whose uber-impressive reign in the AL may be reaching its end.

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

If the Minnesota Twins want to reach the ALCS, they're going to need to get past a team that's gotten there in six consecutive seasons. The Astros have flat-out dominated the American League, bookending their run of amazing success with World Series championships in 2017* and 2023. Houston also quickly dispatched Minnesota in the 2020 playoffs, on top of all that.

You look at a franchise with these bona fides -- and a roster featuring names like Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu -- and it's easy to feel intimidated. Very understandable. I'm not saying the Astros are an unimposing match-up.

But they ain't what they once were. And that leaves the door open for the Twins to dethrone the defending champs.

Let's start with Justin Verlander, the Game 1 starter for Houston. He's been really good this year. And while he has been able to channel his legendary peak form on occasion, he hasn't done so very consistently and it's reflected in his decidedly human overall numbers.

Verlander posted a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts this year. Very good, but also his highest ERA since 2017. His FIP (3.85) was JV's highest since 2008; his K-rate the lowest since 2015. The 40-year-old posted zero double-digit strikeout games this year after putting up four last year and 13 in 2019. (He missed 2020/21 with Tommy John surgery.)

It seems silly to downplay a pitcher whose numbers were as good as Verlander's this year, even if they weren't quite to the level of a runaway Cy Young winner like in 2022. But it's helpful to separate the current version of Verlander from the one burned into many of our brains. He's not the same guy.

That's a trend across much of this roster, which is noticeably less deep than usual with high-caliber performers. Framber Valdez remains excellent alongside Verlander, but no other starter on Houston's staff had a FIP below 4.37 (all five Twins starters did). The Houston bullpen is strong of course, but not as scary as it's been in the past; Ryan Pressly posted his highest ERA and home run rate, and his lowest strikeout rate, as an Astro.

On the offensive side, Abreu is a player whose history and reputation definitely clash with on-field performance. Twins fans know him as a long-time iron man and elite run producer from his days with the White Sox. Houston signed him early in the offseason, envisioning him as an upgrade to their championship offense.

Instead, Abreu was a massive disappointment in the first of a three-year, $60 million deal, putting forth the worst season of his career by a light year. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as a sub-replacement level player. He didn't hit his first home run until the end of May, and finished with an 87 OPS+ that would've ranked 11th among qualified Twins hitters.

It seemed as though the effects of aging avalanched upon Abreu suddenly and starkly at age 36, making this signing look like a rare colossal whiff for the Astros -- perhaps another indicator this once-invincible operation is losing its fastball.

Aside from Abreu, Houston's lineup still features several legitimate superstar hitters coming off great seasons, including Altuve, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They ranked third among AL teams in OPS and runs scored. This offense needs to be taken very seriously, even if somewhat diminished from previous iterations.

That's true of the Houston Astros as a team. But they are definitely diminished. Ninety wins in the AL West is nothing to scoff at but it's far below the standard set by Houston in recent full seasons, which have seen them win 106, 95, 107, 103, and 101 games dating back to 2017.

Within that 90-72 record, there were some signs that could be considered troubling from their perspective. The Astros lost more games (43) than they won (42) against teams with a record above .500. They also had a losing record at home (39-42), where they'll host the first two games of the ALDS.

Last year, by comparison, the Astros were 42-27 against winning teams and 55-26 at Minute Maid Park.

Everywhere you look, you see the signs: this dynasty appears to be fading. The hallmarks of Houston's greatness are growing less abundant and radiant, and it's been apparent enough in the head-to-head matchups: Minnesota went 4-2 against the Astros this year, after going 0-6 against them last year.

That doesn't mean Houston's going to be an easy assignment, or that the Twins necessarily should be favored in anyone's mind, but it does mean they're catching the Astros at a relatively good time. The door is open for the Twins to try and make a statement that the power balance in the American League is ready to shift. 

Vanquishing the Yankees would be nice, but when you think about it, there's no bigger statement possible than going into Houston and taking it to these defending champs and perennial finalists, while assuming their surrendered mantle in the ALCS.

That opportunity is now in front of a power-hitting, power-pitching Twins team that -- by the way -- certainly ain't your grandfather's Minnesota Twins.

View full article

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, I was going to write that "the current Twins ain't your grandfather's Twins" either...but then I got to your last sentence in your fine article about the Astros and BANG...you said it. Great article which had the perfect ending to it. One of your very best articles, out of your many outstanding articles this year. 

[Karbo]

So You're saying Houston is beatable? You know the old saying about any given day etc.... In 87 and 91 the Twins were underdogs through the playoffs. It seemed to motivate those guys. This Twins team has better starting pitchers IMO, Now the question becomes, what can the hitters do against a good Astros team? Will they raise their game a notch? They will need to if they want to advance. And if they do, they will probably need to raise it another notch or two before the next round!

[Brock Beauchamp]

This nicely sums up how I've viewed the Astros this year: they're still very good but no longer great. They're probably a better team than the Twins right now but it's a small gap and the Twins can absolutely beat them if they play anywhere near their capability.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think you are right in saying that the Astros aren’t quite the same team they have been.  Let’s hope that the Twins can come out strong and take the series.  On paper I’ll take our rotation and bullpen, but that Astros lineup is still scary.  Go Twins!

[farmerguychris]

If we pitch like we did in the Wild  Card round, and are patient hitters - only swinging at strikes like we did in game 1 - Anything is possible.  Can't go out there and try to win the game with big swings on every pitch.  I can't see either of their top starters going 110 pitches, so be patient up there and get them out early in games.

[roger]

Got a good feeling reading your piece, Nick, thanks!

Agree that the Twins can win this series.  Let's hope they do.  To do so, they have to win at least one in Houston this weekend.  Expect their best chance will be game 1 on Saturday.  We don't know who the Twins starter will be, but after seeing Ober on the hill against a not as good Rockies team last week, he would be my choice.  If not Bailey, hopefully Maeda, as Ryan's allowing too many home runs of late worries me.  

[Beast]

Any lineup featuring a batting order of Altuve, Bergman, Alvarez, Tucker, Abreu, and Brantley is extremely scary.  They also have a competent player like Dubon, and Jeremy Pena, who had a a career playoff OPS over 1.000 in 60 ABs.

Verlander is the most experienced playoff starter we’ll ever see.  He’s started 34 games, won 16, has struck out over one guy per inning.  Talk about his decline all you want, but his ERA this year was 3.22 with a 1.12 WHIP.  Those are right in line with his career numbers.

Framber Valdez is arguably the best LHP in the game (and we can’t hit lefties).  He’s started 12 playoff games and won 7 with a 3.41 ERA and 75 K in 68 innings.

Cristian Javier has pitched 32 postseason innings as a 26 year old with a 2.20 ERA and 48 Ks in 32 innings, WHIP well under 1.

Urquidy has struck out a batter per inning over 36 playoff innings with a 3.72 ERA.

Pressly has struck out 48 over 38 playoff innings with a 2.56 ERA.

Stanek has struck out 20 over 16 playoff innings in 19 games with a 1.69 ERA and a .69 WHIP.

Neris has a 1.5 ERA, .33 WHIP, 9 Ks in 8 playoff appearances

Graveman, 1.64 ERA over 9 appearances.

Montero, 1.93 ERA 10 appearances.

Maton 1.15 ERA 15 appearances.

Oh, and they know Carlos Correa at the plate like the back of their hand.

Take out Maeda, who hasn’t been used yet, and we have 17 playoff appearances across our entire pitching staff before this season.  The high leverage guys (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Varland) have 1 appearance combined before this season.  The offensive side is pretty barren outside of Correa also (Vasquez has some experience, but awful offensive numbers).

The Astros don’t care about the regular season.  They don’t miss Springer and Correa.  They’re the current defending champs.  Their core has been in the World Series 4 of the last 6 World Series, winning 2 of them.

Let’s not try and fool ourselves.  This is the team to beat this time of year, and it’s not even close.  Can they be beaten?  Sure.  But, we should be very, very concerned about this series.  I’d rather play any other team in baseball.  They are loaded with elite playoff performers with cast iron cannonballs between their legs.

 

 

[mikelink45]

At this stage, I am just happy to be watching playoff baseball and I think the Twins have an excellent chance in this series.  I would not favor them, but the odds are closer to 50-50 than many would have predicted.  

[Tibs]

57 minutes ago, Beast said:

Any lineup featuring a batting order of Altuve, Bergman, Alvarez, Tucker, Abreu, and Brantley is extremely scary.  They also have a competent player like Dubon, and Jeremy Pena, who had a a career playoff OPS over 1.000 in 60 ABs.

Verlander is the most experienced playoff starter we’ll ever see.  He’s started 34 games, won 16, has struck out over one guy per inning.  Talk about his decline all you want, but his ERA this year was 3.22 with a 1.12 WHIP.  Those are right in line with his career numbers.

Framber Valdez is arguably the best LHP in the game (and we can’t hit lefties).  He’s started 12 playoff games and won 7 with a 3.41 ERA and 75 K in 68 innings.

Cristian Javier has pitched 32 postseason innings as a 26 year old with a 2.20 ERA and 48 Ks in 32 innings, WHIP well under 1.

Urquidy has struck out a batter per inning over 36 playoff innings with a 3.72 ERA.

Pressly has struck out 48 over 38 playoff innings with a 2.56 ERA.

Stanek has struck out 20 over 16 playoff innings in 19 games with a 1.69 ERA and a .69 WHIP.

Neris has a 1.5 ERA, .33 WHIP, 9 Ks in 8 playoff appearances

Graveman, 1.64 ERA over 9 appearances.

Montero, 1.93 ERA 10 appearances.

Maton 1.15 ERA 15 appearances.

Oh, and they know Carlos Correa at the plate like the back of their hand.

Take out Maeda, who hasn’t been used yet, and we have 17 playoff appearances across our entire pitching staff before this season.  The high leverage guys (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Varland) have 1 appearance combined before this season.  The offensive side is pretty barren outside of Correa also (Vasquez has some experience, but awful offensive numbers).

The Astros don’t care about the regular season.  They don’t miss Springer and Correa.  They’re the current defending champs.  Their core has been in the World Series 4 of the last 6 World Series, winning 2 of them.

Let’s not try and fool ourselves.  This is the team to beat this time of year, and it’s not even close.  Can they be beaten?  Sure.  But, we should be very, very concerned about this series.  I’d rather play any other team in baseball.  They are loaded with elite playoff performers with cast iron cannonballs between their legs.

 

 

Whatever happens in this series, it won't be decided by what Houston's players did in the playoffs 5 years ago.

[Trov]

47 minutes ago, Beast said:

Any lineup featuring a batting order of Altuve, Bergman, Alvarez, Tucker, Abreu, and Brantley is extremely scary.  They also have a competent player like Dubon, and Jeremy Pena, who had a a career playoff OPS over 1.000 in 60 ABs.

Verlander is the most experienced playoff starter we’ll ever see.  He’s started 34 games, won 16, has struck out over one guy per inning.  Talk about his decline all you want, but his ERA this year was 3.22 with a 1.12 WHIP.  Those are right in line with his career numbers.

Framber Valdez is arguably the best LHP in the game (and we can’t hit lefties).  He’s started 12 playoff games and won 7 with a 3.41 ERA and 75 K in 68 innings.

Cristian Javier has pitched 32 postseason innings as a 26 year old with a 2.20 ERA and 48 Ks in 32 innings, WHIP well under 1.

Urquidy has struck out a batter per inning over 36 playoff innings with a 3.72 ERA.

Pressly has struck out 48 over 38 playoff innings with a 2.56 ERA.

Stanek has struck out 20 over 16 playoff innings in 19 games with a 1.69 ERA and a .69 WHIP.

Neris has a 1.5 ERA, .33 WHIP, 9 Ks in 8 playoff appearances

Graveman, 1.64 ERA over 9 appearances.

Montero, 1.93 ERA 10 appearances.

Maton 1.15 ERA 15 appearances.

Oh, and they know Carlos Correa at the plate like the back of their hand.

Take out Maeda, who hasn’t been used yet, and we have 17 playoff appearances across our entire pitching staff before this season.  The high leverage guys (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Varland) have 1 appearance combined before this season.  The offensive side is pretty barren outside of Correa also (Vasquez has some experience, but awful offensive numbers).

The Astros don’t care about the regular season.  They don’t miss Springer and Correa.  They’re the current defending champs.  Their core has been in the World Series 4 of the last 6 World Series, winning 2 of them.

Let’s not try and fool ourselves.  This is the team to beat this time of year, and it’s not even close.  Can they be beaten?  Sure.  But, we should be very, very concerned about this series.  I’d rather play any other team in baseball.  They are loaded with elite playoff performers with cast iron cannonballs between their legs.

 

 

I agree with the first 4 guys listed in the lineup you state, but Abreu has not been the guy from the Sox.  Sure, at any time he could have a stretch but really their line up is top heavy.  Pena had one run in playoffs as a rookie, this year he is not doing as well.  He hit 22 HR regular season in less at bats than this year, where he has 10. 

Yes, they are more playoff tested as a team, but it is not like you can just flip a switch because it is playoff time and perform better than you had all season.  You may have better outcomes, but looking at how people performed all year does carry into playoffs some. 

We were terrible at hitting lefties, but over last couple months we actually did pretty well against them overall.  I agree Valdez is one of the best in the game, but over last couple months we have been one of better teams against lefties.  Also, it was a lefty we did all the damage game 2. Valdez does scare me the most though.

Last year, Verlander was clear Cy Young winner, but he had 2 good starts and 2 bad starts.  His first start in playoffs, after the bye, he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings.  Then second game he was dominate.  Third game he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings.  4th game he was good, 1 run 5 innings but walked 4.  Point is, he clearly can have bad starts in post season. In 2019, out of 6 starts only 2 were quality starts. 

The argument that our team lacks experience in playoffs so we are at disadvantage or cannot expect much is just poor argument.  Every player has to have their first games.  They may be good they may be bad.  Lewis starts off on fire in 1 game, but game 2 he did nothing really, outside a walk that pulled Berrios. 

[Trov]

For me the biggest stat that should stick out to people is the under .500 against teams over .500 for Houston.  That to me tells a big story that they got by beating up on lessor talent but struggled more when facing higher talent.  They are still clearly a good team, but agree they are not the juggernaut they looked like last year. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I still believe the '19 Astros were the best group they put out. Verlander, Cole, Greinke, McCullers, and Miley were all great, and Osuna, Pressly, and Harris ended games in the 7th inning.

Alvarez and Bregman both posted an OPS above 1.000, with Correa, Altuve, and Springer posting OPSs above .900, with Gurriel and Brantley right behind them. 

That's five starters, three relievers, and seven hitters all playing at an elite level. This year, the bullpen may be better, but they really only have 3 scary hitters (Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez) and two scary starters. They could really get exposed in game 3/4 when they have to start a rookie/Urquidy for two road playoff games. The back half of their lineup is not super threatening, either.

[Riverbrian]

Let them step between the lines and let's see what happens. I fear no one and I fear everyone. 

This should be as close to a set it and forget it series as they come. 

For pre-planning...

The Houston Offense: Rocco will have to have some lefties available out of the pen for Alvarez and Tucker who usually bat back to back and Brantley who isn't too far from them in the order to create a 3 out of 4 left handed hitter stretch in the middle of the order. We will need Thielbar to get some key outs and we will probably need to utilize Funderburk after Thielbar gets used.  

I don't anticipate many pinch hit moves from Baker. Maybe a Diaz for Maldonado switch if they find themselves needing something. 

The Houston Pitching: Framber Valdez is a the lone lefthander. They have another left hander in the bullpen but I don't anticipate Baker to throw him just to throw him when he has better right handed options. Valdez will cause Rocco to deploy the right handed hitting crew and once he is removed from the game... Our young lefty hitters can enter the game and finish it off. This means Julien may not have a defensive replacement in the late innings. 

Apart from Valdez... Rocco can set it and forget it. Baker will probably do the same. 

Get your popcorn ready... Let's go Twins.  

[python85]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

I’d rather play any other team in baseball

I'd rather play Houston then Atlanta or the Dodgers. Maybe Baltimore too. All three of those team finished 10+ games ahead of Houston in the standings and I'll take 162 games this year as a better measuring stick than playoff results where some are half a decade old. 

[roger]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Any lineup featuring a batting order of Altuve, Bergman, Alvarez, Tucker, Abreu, and Brantley is extremely scary.  They also have a competent player like Dubon, and Jeremy Pena, who had a a career playoff OPS over 1.000 in 60 ABs.

Verlander is the most experienced playoff starter we’ll ever see.  He’s started 34 games, won 16, has struck out over one guy per inning.  Talk about his decline all you want, but his ERA this year was 3.22 with a 1.12 WHIP.  Those are right in line with his career numbers.

Framber Valdez is arguably the best LHP in the game (and we can’t hit lefties).  He’s started 12 playoff games and won 7 with a 3.41 ERA and 75 K in 68 innings.

Cristian Javier has pitched 32 postseason innings as a 26 year old with a 2.20 ERA and 48 Ks in 32 innings, WHIP well under 1.

Urquidy has struck out a batter per inning over 36 playoff innings with a 3.72 ERA.

Pressly has struck out 48 over 38 playoff innings with a 2.56 ERA.

Stanek has struck out 20 over 16 playoff innings in 19 games with a 1.69 ERA and a .69 WHIP.

Neris has a 1.5 ERA, .33 WHIP, 9 Ks in 8 playoff appearances

Graveman, 1.64 ERA over 9 appearances.

Montero, 1.93 ERA 10 appearances.

Maton 1.15 ERA 15 appearances.

Oh, and they know Carlos Correa at the plate like the back of their hand.

Take out Maeda, who hasn’t been used yet, and we have 17 playoff appearances across our entire pitching staff before this season.  The high leverage guys (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Varland) have 1 appearance combined before this season.  The offensive side is pretty barren outside of Correa also (Vasquez has some experience, but awful offensive numbers).

The Astros don’t care about the regular season.  They don’t miss Springer and Correa.  They’re the current defending champs.  Their core has been in the World Series 4 of the last 6 World Series, winning 2 of them.

Let’s not try and fool ourselves.  This is the team to beat this time of year, and it’s not even close.  Can they be beaten?  Sure.  But, we should be very, very concerned about this series.  I’d rather play any other team in baseball.  They are loaded with elite playoff performers with cast iron cannonballs between their legs.

 

 

Felt good reading Nick's article, not so good after reading your comment Beast.  Hell, if you are right why do the Twins even bother playing the games?  Heck, they should get on a plane today, save the cost of staying there for the long weekend and not get embarassed.

 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Felt good reading Nick's article, not so good after reading your comment Beast.  Hell, if you are right why do the Twins even bother playing the games?  Heck, they should get on a plane today, save the cost of staying there for the long weekend and not get embarassed.

 

😂 the multitudes of fandom