Does Griffin Jax Have Another Gear?

[Lou Hennessy]

While he may not get the top billing in the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen picture, Griffin Jax has emerged as one of the premier setup options in the American League. His offseason gains last year helped propel him to that point. What does another step up look like for the flame-throwing righty?

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Think about the Twins reliever who can approach 100 MPH with his fastball. 

No, not that one.

I’m talking about Griffin Jax, whose unique journey to the big leagues has led him to two years of success in a setup relief role. Through his winter training program with Driveline in the 2022-2023 offseason, the hard-throwing righty added substantial velocity to his fastball, and the results speak for themselves. He finished the 2023 campaign with a 3.86 ERA and a solid 24.8% strikeout rate across 65 innings pitched, and was completely dominant in four postseason appearances, wherein he punched out five while only allowing one hit and no walks. So how did Jax get to this point, and where does he go from here?

Get In (Drive)Line
Like many players in Major League Baseball, Jax spent last offseason working with Driveline, the renowned data-driven player development organization. Many players get assessments and training resources through this premier program, and for many pitchers, they do so with an eye toward increasing their strength and velocity on their pitches. 

Jax’s partnership with them proved to work wonders, as his fastball velocity increased substantially in 2023. Sure, he had already made huge strides the year prior, as he had the highest velocity gain among all MLB pitchers once he moved to a bullpen role prior to 2022. But his advances with Driveline by his side led to another step forward. 

He made a few tweaks to his mechanics in an effort to increase his extension, and strengthened his arm to a point where he was throwing his heater an average of 1.8 MPH harder in effective velocity than in 2022. That’s notable for someone who was already topping out around 97 MPH. 
Jax’s fastball was transformed into a true weapon, and it effectively improved his other offerings, as each pitch in his repertoire now boasts a Stuff+ score that is well above average. Opposing hitters rarely barreled him up (a 3.6% improvement from the year prior), they hit far more ground balls (a 10.8% improvement) and they mostly failed to hit it over the fence (five home runs allowed all season).

Is Jax’s work with Driveline the sole reason for his raw improvements? Not necessarily, but it’s clear that the extra velocity gave him a leg up.

What’s next?
If the Twins could take Jax’s production from last year and precisely replicate it for 2024, they would gladly take it. But there’s room for improvement, and plenty of opportunity to reap the good karma that should be awaiting him after being relatively unlucky in a couple blemishes on his 2023 game log. So what can take Jax to his next level?

It’s easy to say that another jump in velocity would prove beneficial, but how realistic is that after the increase we’ve seen over the last two years? Driveline is a training program, not a genie in a bottle that will grant him the same wish three times in a row. 

But let’s look at some of the changes Jax made late in the 2023 season, when he had his best six-week stretch. From September through the end of the postseason, he had a 1.84 ERA and a whopping 12.3 K/9, while allowing just nine hits across 14 ⅔ innings pitched. He was locked in, and some changes to his repertoire may have something to do with the success that followed. 
In that time frame, Jax truly went back to his bread and butter – that being his nasty sweeper and a lethal four-seam fastball that he dotted up in the zone. He threw his heater almost twice as often as he had been (nearly 33% of the time, compared to 16% for the two months prior), while completely eliminating a cutter that had seen mixed results through the season. While still throwing his sweeper more than any other offering in the final month of the season, Jax reined in its usage to a more palatable 35.3%, rather than the sky-high 71% peak that he saw earlier in the year. 

So maybe he sticks with that more balanced usage of his two best pitches, or at least makes the necessary in-season adjustments just as he did in 2023. If Jax can carry over the eyebrow-raising success that he showed for most of last year (and especially in the final six weeks of the season), then he quickly becomes the third head of a truly terrifying monster at the back of the Twins’ bullpen – along with that guy that touches 100 MPH with his fastball and that other guy that can do the same. 

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What do you think? What are reasonable expectations for Jax this year? Do you think he has another gear? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. 

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[Linus]

Huge hat tip to Jax. When he came up as a starter I thought there was no hope he could ever stick in the show much less end up damn good. I really give him credit because his first taste of success in the pen was almost completely based on his excellent slider. He knew that wouldn’t last long term and turned a very mediocre fastball into a weapon. 
Don’t let a failed starter go without giving them a shot in the bullpen. 

[Doctor Gast]

It's impressive to see Jax & so many of our pitchers striving to achieve their high goals. 

[Mark G]

It is ironic that immediately before I read this article on Jax, I was reading The Athletic.  It had an article that interviewed Dr. Keith Meister, the orthopedic surgeon who is the team physician for the Texas Rangers.  He performs surgeries on pitchers quite often, and he was trying to explain why pitchers today are more injured than any time in history; it is the spin they try to put on the ball, and the velocity they are trying to reach with virtually every pitch.  And the next article I read says that is exactly what they are trying to do with Jax.  The Athletic article is worth a read, if you can find it.  It makes me pause and think.  

[miracleb]

15 minutes ago, Mark G said:

It is ironic that immediately before I read this article on Jax, I was reading The Athletic.  It had an article that interviewed Dr. Keith Meister, the orthopedic surgeon who is the team physician for the Texas Rangers.  He performs surgeries on pitchers quite often, and he was trying to explain why pitchers today are more injured than any time in history; it is the spin they try to put on the ball, and the velocity they are trying to reach with virtually every pitch.  And the next article I read says that is exactly what they are trying to do with Jax.  The Athletic article is worth a read, if you can find it.  It makes me pause and think.  

I can agree with you Mark....but.....without the type of improvement that guys like Jax need to find.....they don't even have a shot at a MLB career.....so I guess I see WHY they do it.

[miracleb]

I loved watching what Jax is doing to try improve his game year over year.   But lets not get over our skis here.  He had a middle of the pack ERA on just the Twin's roster last year,  Heck, Pagan had a lower ERA for crying out loud.  An "end of the game" pitcher needs to have a sub-3 ERA a year or two in a row.....now you have...... a STUD!  I hope he can get there!

[TwinsDr2021]

Jax is a good to real good relief pitcher, but he also has been in the top 10 in blown saves with ERA's above 3.35 the last two years so to say he is a premier setup is a bit of a stretch to say the least. Doesn't mean he can't or won't be this year. I would argue that Topa was a better setup pitcher last year than Jax. So if Jax has done something to get better, that is wonderful and I hope he ends the season as one of the top 10 set up pitchers. With the articles talking about how amazing each and every player on the Twins anything less than 100 wins would be considered IMO a disappointment.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

It is ironic that immediately before I read this article on Jax, I was reading The Athletic.  It had an article that interviewed Dr. Keith Meister, the orthopedic surgeon who is the team physician for the Texas Rangers.  He performs surgeries on pitchers quite often, and he was trying to explain why pitchers today are more injured than any time in history; it is the spin they try to put on the ball, and the velocity they are trying to reach with virtually every pitch.  And the next article I read says that is exactly what they are trying to do with Jax.  The Athletic article is worth a read, if you can find it.  It makes me pause and think.  

That article is a good read, and it brings up a number of questions.

The biggest question is probably "What is going to force the league to change?"

Right now, teams have 6 years of team control on their young arms and that clock only starts once they've reached the majors - it doesn't include the years that these players toil in the minors, striving to do whatever they can to get to the majors. The teams don't really have much reason to care how much they are wearing and tearing their players' elbows, and the players don't have much choice to ignore what their team wants because they're trying to make it to the bigs for their shot at a payday.

I don't know the answer to that question, but unless there's some massive shift I don't see teams straying away from continuing to optimize and stretch the limits of the human body. 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Jax is a good to real good relief pitcher, but he also has been in the top 10 in blown saves with ERA's above 3.35 the last two years so to say he is a premier setup is a bit of a stretch to say the least. Doesn't mean he can't or won't be this year. I would argue that Topa was a better setup pitcher last year than Jax. So if Jax has done something to get better, that is wonderful and I hope he ends the season as one of the top 10 set up pitchers. With the articles talking about how amazing each and every player on the Twins anything less than 100 wins would be considered IMO a disappointment.

Topa was pretty great last year, and I would put his 2023 right up there with Jax's. But I think Jax was a top-10 non-closer in the American League last year, and I consider that to be premier. I also think his age and track record make him a better bet than Topa heading into 2024 and beyond. Jax's 3.86 ERA last year was misleading, as it was inflated by his only two outings where he allowed more than two earned runs (of course, those bad outings still count, not trying to suggest otherwise). 

But looking at Jax's raw stuff and his 2.88 xERA paints a better picture of his performance than just ERA and Saves/Blown Saves. 

 

I hear you on the endless optimism on every Twins player. I think spirits are high with the general health of the roster (knock on wood) and an exciting playoff push last year. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Sign me up for this.  I like guys who keep improving and really honing their craft.  

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

I loved watching what Jax is doing to try improve his game year over year.   But lets not get over our skis here.  He had a middle of the pack ERA on just the Twin's roster last year,  Heck, Pagan had a lower ERA for crying out loud.  An "end of the game" pitcher needs to have a sub-3 ERA a year or two in a row.....now you have...... a STUD!  I hope he can get there!

He gave up 28 runs in 65 innings - it’s pretty difficult to be a whole run lower on ERA as a guy that pitches to 4-5 guys a game over 71 appearances. If he gave up 4 less runs over the entire season his ERA would have been 3.32, down from 3.86.

His ERA in ‘22 was 3.36 & he pitched 7 more innings than in ‘23.

Above it was said that Jax could be the 3rd guy as part of the Pen’s 3 Headed Monster……..I think that Stewart has become that and that Jax was already included with Duran. He’s solid!

[JD-TWINS]

25 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Topa was pretty great last year, and I would put his 2023 right up there with Jax's. But I think Jax was a top-10 non-closer in the American League last year, and I consider that to be premier. I also think his age and track record make him a better bet than Topa heading into 2024 and beyond. Jax's 3.86 ERA last year was misleading, as it was inflated by his only two outings where he allowed more than two earned runs (of course, those bad outings still count, not trying to suggest otherwise). 

But looking at Jax's raw stuff and his 2.88 xERA paints a better picture of his performance than just ERA and Saves/Blown Saves. 

 

I hear you on the endless optimism on every Twins player. I think spirits are high with the general health of the roster (knock on wood) and an exciting playoff push last year. 

If Topa performs, nobody ever gets tired. Alternating Jax & Topa in 7th with Jax & Stewart in the 8th on varying days could get Duran to 35 plus saves. Those 4 guys are going to see a bunch of appearances………also, have a handful of others to help keep everyone fresh - am keyed up about the Pen in ‘24!

[MN_ExPat]

24 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He gave up 28 runs in 65 innings - it’s pretty difficult to be a whole run lower on ERA as a guy that pitches to 4-5 guys a game over 71 appearances. If he gave up 4 less runs over the entire season his ERA would have been 3.32, down from 3.86.

His ERA in ‘22 was 3.36 & he pitched 7 more innings than in ‘23.

Above it was said that Jax could be the 3rd guy as part of the Pen’s 3 Headed Monster……..I think that Stewart has become that and that Jax was already included with Duran. He’s solid!

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

I loved watching what Jax is doing to try improve his game year over year.   But lets not get over our skis here.  He had a middle of the pack ERA on just the Twin's roster last year,  Heck, Pagan had a lower ERA for crying out loud.  An "end of the game" pitcher needs to have a sub-3 ERA a year or two in a row.....now you have...... a STUD!  I hope he can get there!

Thanks JD.  That's pretty much my thought on the topic as well. 

Miracle... you have point, and I love ERA as much as any lifelong baseball junkie, but... it's not the be all end all (especially for relievers).  Yes it can point to, in a limited fashion, how dominant a pitcher has been, but one bad outing can "destroy" an ERA for the season.

Case in point, last season my son became the closer/primary bullpen guy as a Freshman for his college.  He had one nightmare inning against another team and it took all season just to get his ERA back to an "ugly" level (which didn't tell the story of just what he meant to his team).  Relievers just don't get the innings to level out what happens to every pitcher in the league (an inning that proves that they are human 🙂).

[JD-TWINS]

35 minutes ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Topa was pretty great last year, and I would put his 2023 right up there with Jax's. But I think Jax was a top-10 non-closer in the American League last year, and I consider that to be premier. I also think his age and track record make him a better bet than Topa heading into 2024 and beyond. Jax's 3.86 ERA last year was misleading, as it was inflated by his only two outings where he allowed more than two earned runs (of course, those bad outings still count, not trying to suggest otherwise). 

But looking at Jax's raw stuff and his 2.88 xERA paints a better picture of his performance than just ERA and Saves/Blown Saves. 

 

I hear you on the endless optimism on every Twins player. I think spirits are high with the general health of the roster (knock on wood) and an exciting playoff push last year. 

Jax has similar ERA to Kenley Jansen - Ryan Pressley - so he’s in the mix with very good closers……….He’s had some blown saves & those can stick in fan’s minds……..he’s been very good in a heck of a lot more games than anything else!

Glad he’s a TWIN!

[bean5302]

Jax is a good reliever, but I think he's probably at his ceiling at this point. Hopefully, his arm will hang in there! I could see Jax improving in higher leverage situations this year which would help his WPA and possibly fans' perceptions. 

[Parfigliano]

Who pays for DriveLine services team or player?  Maybe its a line item negotiated in their contract. 

[roger]

If memory serves, I recall Jax being very good the first part of the season.  Then he wasn't good with a couple really ugly games thrown in.  That was before he finished the season and playoffs being almost unhittable.  He really doesn't need to improve a lot, just eliminate that down stretch or even reduce it if it a week or two.  Wondering if that was related to a tired or sore arm?

Have enjoyed following his career since he was drafted.  Would appreciate one of the TD staff interviewing him and getting more into his personal life.  For example, does he still have an Air Force obligation and if so, what is it?  I recall that his wife was also an Academy grad.  Was it intelligence?  Is she still in the AF?  And if so, how do they manage their relationship if she is serving wherever? 

 

 

[DocBauer]

How can Jax improve for this season? How about a horseshoe in his locker? Or a rabbit's foot in his back pocket?

But seriously, after a wild first weeks he was good to dominate the rest of the season except for about a week in August. Those first few weeks he had every borderline call go against him, bloop hits, some defensive displays, weird bounces, and what have you. 

He's not a closer, but he's really good. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

But looking at Jax's raw stuff and his 2.88 xERA paints a better picture of his performance than just ERA and Saves/Blown Saves.

With relief pitchers I don't believe you can look at any one stat and make a good judgement. And I hate using expected or projected stats to determine how a player performed prior. I believe you can say about somebody their ERA doesn't look great because of just a couple bad performances or being left in too long a couple of times. I love/like using expected for how said player will likely perform going forward, which is a good sign for Jax.

This isn't a rip on Jax, but in 22 he blew 25% of his save opportunities and in 23 he blew 22%. Compare that with say Hector Neris who blew 1 off 34 chances (3%) in 23 and 4 out of 32 in 22 for 13% and his ERA in 22 was actually higher than Jax.

or Erik Swanson he blew 2 of 35 chances last year and 2 of 19 the year prior. or Tyler Rogers 7 of 39, 1 of 16 and 6 of 49 in 21. Bryan Abreu in 22 perfect 10 for 10 and last year was 29/33 (and Topa was 26/28 last year, but I wouldn't count him as elite yet)

To me those are elite and I hope Jax gets there, not being elite is OK, when you are in the next tier or so down.

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Who pays for DriveLine services team or player?  Maybe its a line item negotiated in their contract. 

 

1 hour ago, roger said:

If memory serves, I recall Jax being very good the first part of the season.  Then he wasn't good with a couple really ugly games thrown in.  That was before he finished the season and playoffs being almost unhittable.  He really doesn't need to improve a lot, just eliminate that down stretch or even reduce it if it a week or two.  Wondering if that was related to a tired or sore arm?

Have enjoyed following his career since he was drafted.  Would appreciate one of the TD staff interviewing him and getting more into his personal life.  For example, does he still have an Air Force obligation and if so, what is it?  I recall that his wife was also an Academy grad.  Was it intelligence?  Is she still in the AF?  And if so, how do they manage their relationship if she is serving wherever? 

 

 

From what I remember reading/hearing last season

• He still has (for at least a little bit longer) an obligation, he just made Captain during last season
• I believe they are both in the Guard/Reserve
  • Can't remember her job series though

[Old fox]

Max deserves to be on the roster because he has earned by producing and knowing how to pitch. I admire Jax because he trying to improve himself and Driveline has an excellent reputation. Driveline has a big following of pro’s. That’s why we play the game! 

[Rosterman]

I'm curious to see his 2024. He has been lights out in spring training.

I hated 2023 when he was brought in with a man on in extra inning games. He more often than not had a tendency to put a man or two on base in a good many of his outings. He seemed to do better when he could start an inning.

My only disappointment with him was that I was hoping, with his work as a starter, to be a guy who would regularly pitch thru the batting order once, be that long relief guy. 

[Guest]

On 3/8/2024 at 1:33 PM, DocBauer said:

How can Jax improve for this season? How about a horseshoe in his locker? Or a rabbit's foot in his back.

Or an emery board.😈