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Think about the Twins reliever who can approach 100 MPH with his fastball.
No, not that one.
I’m talking about Griffin Jax, whose unique journey to the big leagues has led him to two years of success in a setup relief role. Through his winter training program with Driveline in the 2022-2023 offseason, the hard-throwing righty added substantial velocity to his fastball, and the results speak for themselves. He finished the 2023 campaign with a 3.86 ERA and a solid 24.8% strikeout rate across 65 innings pitched, and was completely dominant in four postseason appearances, wherein he punched out five while only allowing one hit and no walks. So how did Jax get to this point, and where does he go from here?
Get In (Drive)Line
Like many players in Major League Baseball, Jax spent last offseason working with Driveline, the renowned data-driven player development organization. Many players get assessments and training resources through this premier program, and for many pitchers, they do so with an eye toward increasing their strength and velocity on their pitches.
Jax’s partnership with them proved to work wonders, as his fastball velocity increased substantially in 2023. Sure, he had already made huge strides the year prior, as he had the highest velocity gain among all MLB pitchers once he moved to a bullpen role prior to 2022. But his advances with Driveline by his side led to another step forward.
He made a few tweaks to his mechanics in an effort to increase his extension, and strengthened his arm to a point where he was throwing his heater an average of 1.8 MPH harder in effective velocity than in 2022. That’s notable for someone who was already topping out around 97 MPH.
Jax’s fastball was transformed into a true weapon, and it effectively improved his other offerings, as each pitch in his repertoire now boasts a Stuff+ score that is well above average. Opposing hitters rarely barreled him up (a 3.6% improvement from the year prior), they hit far more ground balls (a 10.8% improvement) and they mostly failed to hit it over the fence (five home runs allowed all season).
Is Jax’s work with Driveline the sole reason for his raw improvements? Not necessarily, but it’s clear that the extra velocity gave him a leg up.
What’s next?
If the Twins could take Jax’s production from last year and precisely replicate it for 2024, they would gladly take it. But there’s room for improvement, and plenty of opportunity to reap the good karma that should be awaiting him after being relatively unlucky in a couple blemishes on his 2023 game log. So what can take Jax to his next level?
It’s easy to say that another jump in velocity would prove beneficial, but how realistic is that after the increase we’ve seen over the last two years? Driveline is a training program, not a genie in a bottle that will grant him the same wish three times in a row.
But let’s look at some of the changes Jax made late in the 2023 season, when he had his best six-week stretch. From September through the end of the postseason, he had a 1.84 ERA and a whopping 12.3 K/9, while allowing just nine hits across 14 ⅔ innings pitched. He was locked in, and some changes to his repertoire may have something to do with the success that followed.
In that time frame, Jax truly went back to his bread and butter – that being his nasty sweeper and a lethal four-seam fastball that he dotted up in the zone. He threw his heater almost twice as often as he had been (nearly 33% of the time, compared to 16% for the two months prior), while completely eliminating a cutter that had seen mixed results through the season. While still throwing his sweeper more than any other offering in the final month of the season, Jax reined in its usage to a more palatable 35.3%, rather than the sky-high 71% peak that he saw earlier in the year.
So maybe he sticks with that more balanced usage of his two best pitches, or at least makes the necessary in-season adjustments just as he did in 2023. If Jax can carry over the eyebrow-raising success that he showed for most of last year (and especially in the final six weeks of the season), then he quickly becomes the third head of a truly terrifying monster at the back of the Twins’ bullpen – along with that guy that touches 100 MPH with his fastball and that other guy that can do the same.
What do you think? What are reasonable expectations for Jax this year? Do you think he has another gear? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.
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