How Much Can Byron Buxton’s Health Improve the Twins’ Baserunning in 2024?

[Cody Christie]

Every spring, the Twins have a renewed focus on improving baserunning. If Byron Buxton is healthy, can the 2024 roster actually improve on the base paths?

Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

MLB changed multiple rules last season that were expected to help teams to be more active on the bases. Bigger bases and limiting pitcher throw-overs saw the number of stolen bases rise. In 2023, there were 1.4 stolen bases per game in 1.8 attempts. In 2022, there was an average of 1.0 stolen bases per game with 1.4 attempts. MLB noted the success rate of base stealing attempts increased from 75.4% in 2022 to a record high of 80.2% in 2023.

FanGraphs uses a metric called Base Running (BsR) that includes stolen bases, caught stealing, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average. The Twins have multiple players who rank poorly on the base paths, including some that may be surprising. Carlos Correa set the team record for hitting into double plays as he struggled through the effects of plantar fasciitis. His -9.2 BsR was the lowest on the Twins by a wide margin, but he wasn’t the only poor base runner. 

Christian Vazquez was the second-worst base runner with a -4.4 BsR, and he’s never posted a positive BsR. In 2022, he posted a -9.9 BsR, a career-high, so he saw some improvements last season. Max Kepler had the third-worst BsR total (-3.5) on the Twins last season, which was nearly double his previous low. He has had multiple seasons with a BsR of 3.0 or higher, but he dealt with some injuries early in the season. Minnesota’s top base runners were Willi Castro (6.4 BsR) and Byron Buxton (4.8 BsR), who the Twins will rely on again in 2024. 

Buxton’s improved health has been the talk of the offseason after he underwent an arthroscopic procedure to excise the plica (a membrane flap) in his right knee. The Twins reported that Buxton was progressing well in December and that optimism has continued throughout the winter. At TwinsFest, Buxton was asked about returning to center field, and he told fans, “I’m back.” His attitude remains exceptionally positive as the team has started spring training, and that’s one of the reasons the team’s base running can improve for 2024. 

Earlier this week, Buxton was candid with reporters when asked what he could bring to the running game. He and Castro have joked about how many steals they can each accumulate this year, and Buxton believes he can swipe 30 bags. Castro stole 33 bases last season, more than double the 13 bases stolen by Michael A. Taylor, the team’s second-place finisher. Buxton’s career high in steals came in 2017 when he went 29-for-30 in stolen base attempts. Outside of that season, he has never stolen more than 14 bases in a season, and he hasn’t had double-digit steals since 2019. 

A healthy Buxton can be one of baseball’s best base runners, but his player type in recent years tends not to have a lot of stolen base opportunities. Early in his career, the Twins encouraged Buxton to hit the ball on the ground and use his speed to beat out hits. This hitting style left him on first base regularly, allowing him to steal more bases. In recent years, Buxton has developed into more of a power hitter, so it’s more difficult to steal bases if he hits an extra-base hit. He also doesn’t walk regularly, as he has a .300 OBP for his career and posted a 10.1% walk rate in 2023. 

If Buxton is more active on the bases, the Twins might need to consider where he fits into the batting order. Last season, he was most regularly used in the third and fourth spot in the batting order. Edouard Julien will likely get most of the starts in the leadoff spot so that the Twins could move Buxton to the number two spot ahead of Correa. The Twins also want Royce Lewis, another stolen base threat, to get opportunities near the top of the lineup, which could result in Buxton sticking to the cleanup spot. 

Fans can be excited about the renewed optimism surrounding Buxton’s health this spring, but there will continue to be an element of wait-and-see with his performance. Can he stay healthy for the majority of the season? Will he be healthy enough to be a base-stealing threat? Those questions won’t likely be answered until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign. 

 

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[CRF]

If he is indeed finally healthy, or healthier than he's been in a long time, the Twins would be very wise to take extra care with him on the base paths, and the amount of steals he attempts. There's no question he's one of the fastest players in MLB, but he's been hurt running the bases and trying to steal before. He's fast, but he's not a base stealer. He also doesn't seem to have the best technique when it comes to sliding. He just seems awkward when he slides. With his knee and hip issues, he could be back on the Il before you know it. Now that he's supposed to be back playing CF, just take it slow and don't rush anything. Let's see how he physically holds up. 

[Doctor Gast]

I think 30 SBs for Buck is optimistic. I think they'll try to keep him on a leash & I think Buck should be clean up. But with Castro & Martin tearing up the base paths, it'll be hard to hold him down. 

[stringer bell]

Buxton has a lifetime 89.5% base stealing percentage, which is excellent. I see no reason for the percentage to go down significantly. I don't think he will run unnecessarily to boost his stats, but getting more than 20 steals if he is healthy sounds about right. 

As far as opportunities, Buxton drew significantly more walks in 2022 and 2023, which is another good way to give him stealing opportunities. His position in the lineup probably will also determine how much he will run.

I think it is important to note there is a lot more to base running than stealing bases and the low numbers from Vázquez and Correa illustrate this. Kepler's relatively low standing also confirms my eye test. Being aggressive, but smart on the bases doesn't require great speed. There are a few guys with pretty decent speed who run bases like catchers. 

[Otaknam]

For the past several years every time Buxton ran at full speed I cringed, expecting another pulled muscle, collision with the fence causing a concussion, broken bone, etc. I’m hoping this year his health helps me get past that expectation of injury and he has a great season. Of both he and Correa are healthy this lineup will be awesome! 

[mikelink45]

Of course he could improve our base running. He could be amazing. What the question is, what is the toll that the base running would take on him?  

[JD-TWINS]

As mentioned above, Buxton’s career high for steals is 29 & he was 23 years old.

He has 45 steals in the past 6 years combined. (doesn’t sound like the profile of a 20 or 30 base stealer in 2024) First base moved 3” closer to 2B and 2B moved 1.5” closer to 1B with the base dimension changes in ‘23.  That’s 4.5” total more of an advantage than he had in his career previously….not a very big deal! Do we want to watch him diving back into first base as he’s held on once or twice a game - NO.

He’s played over 100 games ONCE & that was when he was 23.

He’s hurt ALL THE TIME.

Why on earth would the club want him to even try to steal more than 10 times all year, if that? His profile has changed & his value is providing XBH ……..AND staying in the line-up!!!

If he’s hurt he isn’t playing CF & he isn’t doubling in the gap. He (the Team) needs to preserve his legs for October availability. Playing CF too often or stealing at all are not ways to have him available in October at a high level physically.

I get he’s fast - I get it’s exciting to watch him run down balls others might not get to on the grass - I get it’s cool to see guys steal bases. He needs to FOCUS on staying upright so he can hit in October. If he’s hurt he isn’t contributing a thing.

 

[saviking]

49 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

As mentioned above, Buxton’s career high for steals is 29 & he was 23 years old.

He has 45 steals in the past 6 years combined. (doesn’t sound like the profile of a 20 or 30 base stealer in 2024) First base moved 3” closer to 2B and 2B moved 1.5” closer to 1B with the base dimension changes in ‘23.  That’s 4.5” total more of an advantage than he had in his career previously….not a very big deal! Do we want to watch him diving back into first base as he’s held on once or twice a game - NO.

He’s played over 100 games ONCE & that was when he was 23.

He’s hurt ALL THE TIME.

Why on earth would the club want him to even try to steal more than 10 times all year, if that? His profile has changed & his value is providing XBH ……..AND staying in the line-up!!!

If he’s hurt he isn’t playing CF & he isn’t doubling in the gap. He (the Team) needs to preserve his legs for October availability. Playing CF too often or stealing at all are not ways to have him available in October at a high level physically.

I get he’s fast - I get it’s exciting to watch him run down balls others might not get to on the grass - I get it’s cool to see guys steal bases. He needs to FOCUS on staying upright so he can hit in October. If he’s hurt he isn’t contributing a thing.

 

It depends on how many at-bats he gets and his on-base percentage is ...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

53 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

He’s played over 100 games ONCE & that was when he was 23.

He’s hurt ALL THE TIME. 
 

 His profile has changed

If he’s hurt he isn’t playing CF & he isn’t doubling in the gap. He (the Team) needs to preserve his legs for October  

 

All of these things.  I want him playing in the field and hitting 120+ games.  A couple of additional stolen bases doesn’t help the team as much as having him available to play for more games.  Steal in a key situation?  Sure.  We want Byron Burton doing Byron Burton things. But don’t use up the bullets in his chamber on less impactful things.  

[Blyleven2011]

Stay out of the double play and do more hit and run type plays  , put a decent contact hitter behind Buxton that will make this happen  , steals are nice but putting they hit and run in play will help the stress on Buxtons body ....

[Thebigalguy]

Keep the man healthy. Stealing a base now and then? Sure. Trying to be the team leader in that category? Nope. If he can stay in CF and keep his swing fluid, he should continue to go for extra bases when possible but avoid the slides. This man is young but injury prone. No shame in caution. 

[h2oface]

I hope Buxton learns how to slide. Watching him bounce and face plant head first, misjudge the distance and slide over and past the base, and feet first, too. Really needs to perfect sliding safely to stay in the game. 
 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

It depends on how many at-bats he gets and his on-base percentage is ...

He’s been hurt for 6 straight years & 7 of 9 total……so that’s the % he and the team should try to change………the quantity of his steals historically may be attributed to how often he reached base……..going forward he needs to stay healthy.

[gman]

I think they need to keep Buxton on a very short lease when it comes to stealing bases and crashing into fences to catch fly balls. I'd like st see him get to the end of April without going on the IL for 10 days.

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

As far as opportunities, Buxton drew significantly more walks in 2022 and 2023

I mean…his OBP was 294 last year, career-wise it’s 300.

[jkcarew]

The Twins have clearly established a track record of ‘protecting’ him when he’s playing. Not going to cut him loose on the bases.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I mean…his OBP was 294 last year, career-wise it’s 300.

Yes, he almost made up for his low batting average by walking that much more. My point was that a walk is getting to first base where a steal is more likely than an extra-base hit. 

[DocBauer]

I LOVE how good Buxton feels and his optimism and attitude. Do we dare dream that the "cleanup" he had following 2022 made a difference that didn't quite fix it all, but this "plica" removal really made a difference? I'm no doctor, but we've all seen and heard of procedures that didn't quite work completely, but a second one just seemed to make a difference. I know just enough to know a surgeon doesn't usually just "go to town" and start removing stuff for the sake of doing so. That's about the extent of my medical knowledge, lol. 

But Buxton feels better than he has in years. And I believe him when he says that. But I'd hold the reigns back a bit on his 30 SB gungho attitude for now. A healthy Buxton is more likely to knock 30 HR than he is to steal 30 bases. And that's all a part of keeping him as healthy as can be going forward. There's just no need for him to risk an injury at 2B from jamming a wrist or shoulder or having him be stepped on or collided with an infielder for a SB that doesn't matter.

HOWEVER, his crazy speed and ability to steal bases shouldn't be ignored either. I'd be ecstatic with 20 SB in crucial moments. 

Let's say all the good news is real and he plays 120 games between CF and some DH. The XBH are going to be there. He's got so much power and talent, he could crank 50 XBH in 120 games. 

BUT, for giggles, with all his speed and amazing career percentage of stealing bases. In 120 total games, he'd only have to steal 1 every 6 games for 20. And only 1 for every 4 games played for 30. Not exactly crazy percentages. 

I do think speed and instincts are real for Buck. But I also agree that he's awkward at times when he steals. And I believe some of that may be technique. I'd have someone like Molitor work with him to polish that part of his game. It's just silly not to run him at times in a crunch situation because he's already so damn good. But it's also silly to run him just for the sake of doing so and risking potential injury.

Were I Rocco, I'd be "taming" down his high spirits a notch to look at technique to insure he's utilizing his ability to the fullest with as little risk as possible. Being a great SB threat doesn't mean you can't do it better.

30 SB sounds amazing! But I'd rather have 20 if it meant better health. 

[saviking]

22 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s been hurt for 6 straight years & 7 of 9 total……so that’s the % he and the team should try to change………the quantity of his steals historically may be attributed to how often he reached base……..going forward he needs to stay healthy.

Exactly my point.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I LOVE how good Buxton feels and his optimism and attitude. Do we dare dream that the "cleanup" he had following 2022 made a difference that didn't quite fix it all, but this "plica" removal really made a difference? I'm no doctor, but we've all seen and heard of procedures that didn't quite work completely, but a second one just seemed to make a difference. I know just enough to know a surgeon doesn't usually just "go to town" and start removing stuff for the sake of doing so. That's about the extent of my medical knowledge, lol. 

But Buxton feels better than he has in years. And I believe him when he says that. But I'd hold the reigns back a bit on his 30 SB gungho attitude for now. A healthy Buxton is more likely to knock 30 HR than he is to steal 30 bases. And that's all a part of keeping him as healthy as can be going forward. There's just no need for him to risk an injury at 2B from jamming a wrist or shoulder or having him be stepped on or collided with an infielder for a SB that doesn't matter.

HOWEVER, his crazy speed and ability to steal bases shouldn't be ignored either. I'd be ecstatic with 20 SB in crucial moments. 

Let's say all the good news is real and he plays 120 games between CF and some DH. The XBH are going to be there. He's got so much power and talent, he could crank 50 XBH in 120 games. 

BUT, for giggles, with all his speed and amazing career percentage of stealing bases. In 120 total games, he'd only have to steal 1 every 6 games for 20. And only 1 for every 4 games played for 30. Not exactly crazy percentages. 

I do think speed and instincts are real for Buck. But I also agree that he's awkward at times when he steals. And I believe some of that may be technique. I'd have someone like Molitor work with him to polish that part of his game. It's just silly not to run him at times in a crunch situation because he's already so damn good. But it's also silly to run him just for the sake of doing so and risking potential injury.

Were I Rocco, I'd be "taming" down his high spirits a notch to look at technique to insure he's utilizing his ability to the fullest with as little risk as possible. Being a great SB threat doesn't mean you can't do it better.

30 SB sounds amazing! But I'd rather have 20 if it meant better health. 

Seems most want him to steal - “just don’t get hurt.”……,,, Real problem with this!!

My point is you can’t have it both ways. 20 steals, realistically, takes 23-25 attempts. To me that’s way too many risks for such a fragile guy. He’s historically as fragile as anyone in MLB.

Thinking that a guy who’s going to be 30 can be helped in his 12th season affiliated with Professional Baseball & is going to learn how to slide with Molitor’s help, at this point, seems like something only seen possible/probable on paper.

I think 6-7 steals is plenty - 5 of those with a guy on third base so it’s essentially a free pass. Maybe once or twice because the pitcher sees no threat of him going.

If you steal bases, you are a threat…….then pitchers try to dissuade you by throwing to 1B ………more chances for injury.

If Ryan Jeffers was going to hit 25 HR & 25 doubles and play 110-120 games nobody would be clamoring for the need for him to steal bases to be an effective player.

45 steals over past SIX SEASONS. Why do we think 20 is now some low threshold. ……”….I feel good.” ……that can’t be the justification.

I’d love to see him steal 40 bases - he’s got the talent and is as fast as anyone. It’s not practical. As a group nearly everyone says….”…..,preserve yourself, dial it back a bit” or “……just don’t run into any walls……” But go ahead and steal your second highest base total of your career.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

Honestly, how fragile is this man if you are all concerned with him getting an injury if he attempts to steal more bags?  IF the Twins won't let him play CF to keep him healthy and IF they don't let him steal bases to keep him healthy then what good is he?  Those are his two best tools.  He can turn a walk into a double all the time if he wanted.  Based on his last years dreadful performance I could care less if we save him for October.  If I remember right the Twins played better after the put him on the injured list.

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

Honestly, how fragile is this man if you are all concerned with him getting an injury if he attempts to steal more bags?  IF the Twins won't let him play CF to keep him healthy and IF they don't let him steal bases to keep him healthy then what good is he?  Those are his two best tools.  He can turn a walk into a double all the time if he wanted.  Based on his last years dreadful performance I could care less if we save him for October.  If I remember right the Twins played better after the put him on the injured list.

I suppose there's a "sweet spot" for Buxton stealing bases. If he were to play 120 games, attempting a steal every three or four games doesn't sound like too much and with his lifetime percentage close to 90%, he could end up around thirty swiped bags pretty easily. 

A question that won't be answered about Buxton's health this spring is how he holds up to the wear and tear of full season. I hope it is answered in the regular season. It may be that Buxton won't run much despite his still-elite speed just to keep the nicks under control. A lot will depend on how he feels going through the year.