How Much Can Byron Buxton’s Health Improve the Twins’ Baserunning in 2024?

As mentioned above, Buxton’s career high for steals is 29 & he was 23 years old.

He has 45 steals in the past 6 years combined. (doesn’t sound like the profile of a 20 or 30 base stealer in 2024) First base moved 3” closer to 2B and 2B moved 1.5” closer to 1B with the base dimension changes in ‘23.  That’s 4.5” total more of an advantage than he had in his career previously….not a very big deal! Do we want to watch him diving back into first base as he’s held on once or twice a game - NO.

He’s played over 100 games ONCE & that was when he was 23.

He’s hurt ALL THE TIME.

Why on earth would the club want him to even try to steal more than 10 times all year, if that? His profile has changed & his value is providing XBH ……..AND staying in the line-up!!!

If he’s hurt he isn’t playing CF & he isn’t doubling in the gap. He (the Team) needs to preserve his legs for October availability. Playing CF too often or stealing at all are not ways to have him available in October at a high level physically.

I get he’s fast - I get it’s exciting to watch him run down balls others might not get to on the grass - I get it’s cool to see guys steal bases. He needs to FOCUS on staying upright so he can hit in October. If he’s hurt he isn’t contributing a thing.

3 hours ago, saviking said:

It depends on how many at-bats he gets and his on-base percentage is ...

He’s been hurt for 6 straight years & 7 of 9 total……so that’s the % he and the team should try to change………the quantity of his steals historically may be attributed to how often he reached base……..going forward he needs to stay healthy.

I think they need to keep Buxton on a very short lease when it comes to stealing bases and crashing into fences to catch fly balls. I'd like st see him get to the end of April without going on the IL for 10 days.

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I LOVE how good Buxton feels and his optimism and attitude. Do we dare dream that the "cleanup" he had following 2022 made a difference that didn't quite fix it all, but this "plica" removal really made a difference? I'm no doctor, but we've all seen and heard of procedures that didn't quite work completely, but a second one just seemed to make a difference. I know just enough to know a surgeon doesn't usually just "go to town" and start removing stuff for the sake of doing so. That's about the extent of my medical knowledge, lol. 

But Buxton feels better than he has in years. And I believe him when he says that. But I'd hold the reigns back a bit on his 30 SB gungho attitude for now. A healthy Buxton is more likely to knock 30 HR than he is to steal 30 bases. And that's all a part of keeping him as healthy as can be going forward. There's just no need for him to risk an injury at 2B from jamming a wrist or shoulder or having him be stepped on or collided with an infielder for a SB that doesn't matter.

HOWEVER, his crazy speed and ability to steal bases shouldn't be ignored either. I'd be ecstatic with 20 SB in crucial moments. 

Let's say all the good news is real and he plays 120 games between CF and some DH. The XBH are going to be there. He's got so much power and talent, he could crank 50 XBH in 120 games. 

BUT, for giggles, with all his speed and amazing career percentage of stealing bases. In 120 total games, he'd only have to steal 1 every 6 games for 20. And only 1 for every 4 games played for 30. Not exactly crazy percentages. 

I do think speed and instincts are real for Buck. But I also agree that he's awkward at times when he steals. And I believe some of that may be technique. I'd have someone like Molitor work with him to polish that part of his game. It's just silly not to run him at times in a crunch situation because he's already so damn good. But it's also silly to run him just for the sake of doing so and risking potential injury.

Were I Rocco, I'd be "taming" down his high spirits a notch to look at technique to insure he's utilizing his ability to the fullest with as little risk as possible. Being a great SB threat doesn't mean you can't do it better.

30 SB sounds amazing! But I'd rather have 20 if it meant better health. 

Seems most want him to steal - “just don’t get hurt.”……,,, Real problem with this!!

My point is you can’t have it both ways. 20 steals, realistically, takes 23-25 attempts. To me that’s way too many risks for such a fragile guy. He’s historically as fragile as anyone in MLB.

Thinking that a guy who’s going to be 30 can be helped in his 12th season affiliated with Professional Baseball & is going to learn how to slide with Molitor’s help, at this point, seems like something only seen possible/probable on paper.

I think 6-7 steals is plenty - 5 of those with a guy on third base so it’s essentially a free pass. Maybe once or twice because the pitcher sees no threat of him going.

If you steal bases, you are a threat…….then pitchers try to dissuade you by throwing to 1B ………more chances for injury.

If Ryan Jeffers was going to hit 25 HR & 25 doubles and play 110-120 games nobody would be clamoring for the need for him to steal bases to be an effective player.

45 steals over past SIX SEASONS. Why do we think 20 is now some low threshold. ……”….I feel good.” ……that can’t be the justification.

I’d love to see him steal 40 bases - he’s got the talent and is as fast as anyone. It’s not practical. As a group nearly everyone says….”…..,preserve yourself, dial it back a bit” or “……just don’t run into any walls……” But go ahead and steal your second highest base total of your career.