2024 Minnesota Twins Position Battles: The Final Bench Spot

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins don’t have a battle for the last spot. With the trade of Polanco they have a battle for a spot in the starting lineup against right handed pitching.

Where… DH? (or 2B, if you slide Julien to DH)?

I would think the priority would be a right-handed bat. With a lefty like Larnach to fill the DH role only if by consolation…the failure to land a right-handed bat, or Martin/Prato/whoever not being ready. A guy like Martin (if deemed ready) could play frequently between 2B, and outfield. FWIW, Polanco takes away a decent-ish right-handed bat with him as well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m of the opinion that somehow it will wind up being Austin Martin.  I think he brings some things to the table that a lot of Twins hitters don’t and that could be a nice lineup diversifier.  He’s a righty.  He can steal bases.  He makes contact (at least so far, in MiLB).  I am also curious about a truly healthy Miranda brings, although the reports are already questioning his health.  

That being said, if Larnach comes in a mashes like we think he might be capable of doing, he’s probably not getting sent down.  Lineup construction be damned. Alas, if he or Kiriloff stays healthy and ever produces up to expectations it will be a miracle.  

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Where… DH? (or 2B, if you slide Julien to DH)?

I would think the priority would be a right-handed bat. With a lefty like Larnach to fill the DH role only if by consolation…the failure to land a right-handed bat, or Martin/Prato/whoever not being ready. A guy like Martin (if deemed ready) could play frequently between 2B, and outfield. FWIW, Polanco takes away a decent-ish right-handed bat with him as well.

Let’s suppose they add that short side platoon right handed bat. Who is the 9th hitter that will join the line up against right handed pitching? Why is this less important? None of their options (Santana, Farmer, Castro, Vazquez, new right handed bat) would be a counted on run producer against a right handed bat.

Any additional right handed bat will help in about 25% of the starts. Even then they will likely have the platoon advantage for only 2 of their plate appearances that game as pitchers no longer go deep. The cost of this short sided platoon bat is a spot for a batter than can produce against right handed pitching.

I think the real priority is an every day bat that fits in the top/middle of the line up. Polanco was that bat. They don’t have enough roster space to replace him with two platoon players and both need another bat.

They can go get a bat that is run producer against both right and left handed pitching. Has JD Martinez signed anywhere yet? They may need his bat in the lineup more than they need the positional flexibility. 

 

[DocBauer]

God bless Goodrum for "coming home" and helping the Saints. But he's also about the 5th or 6th emergency option at this point.

The FO HATES losing depth, which stinks for Larnach as I still believe there would be a few teams that would love to grab him as a late bloomer. If the season started tomorrow, he's on the roster as an OF and DH against RHP. Never forget 75-80% of the time that's what you're facing. He's still got talent and potential. I'm just not certain he's where he's supposed to be. We'll see.

THANK YOU Ted for including Helman and Prato in your OP. Why does everyone proclaim how wonderful Castro is and forget to realize that opportunity allowed him to be what he was last year, and forget that there's a couple of guys this year that might make a difference. 

If the Twins go  out tomorrow and sign Taylor as a speedy, super glove OF with some pop, I'm 100% OK. With Martin in the wings and available for promotion at any time, I'm OK with a bat first addition. I still like a solid, neutral split bat addition like Duvall on a 1yr. Better against RHP than Wallner, Kepler, OK if he's forced to play daily. 

But talent and payroll regardless, do the Twins actually think Martin is ready? Id only be in favor if he's going to play almost daily. I just don't see that opening daily right now. It just makes sense to give him a little more time offensively and defensively for a few weeks at AAA. That's what I'd do.

UNLESS Martin blows you away, I'd be looking at Helman and Prato and playing them daily in ST. IF, again, you don't bring in another RH bat, Helman is a kid  you wanted to see last year. He's got the same game as Castro, with more pop/power. Prato might have a better hit tool? I think both of these invites might be under the radar options that fill the last spot unless someone else is added, or the Twins just trust Martin is ready to go.  

 

[stringer bell]

53 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

God bless Goodrum for "coming home" and helping the Saints. But he's also about the 5th or 6th emergency option at this point.

The FO HATES losing depth, which stinks for Larnach as I still believe there would be a few teams that would love to grab him as a late bloomer. If the season started tomorrow, he's on the roster as an OF and DH against RHP. Never forget 75-80% of the time that's what you're facing. He's still got talent and potential. I'm just not certain he's where he's supposed to be. We'll see.

THANK YOU Ted for including Helman and Prato in your OP. Why does everyone proclaim how wonderful Castro is and forget to realize that opportunity allowed him to be what he was last year, and forget that there's a couple of guys this year that might make a difference. 

If the Twins go  out tomorrow and sign Taylor as a speedy, super glove OF with some pop, I'm 100% OK. With Martin in the wings and available for promotion at any time, I'm OK with a bat first addition. I still like a solid, neutral split bat addition like Duvall on a 1yr. Better against RHP than Wallner, Kepler, OK if he's forced to play daily. 

But talent and payroll regardless, do the Twins actually think Martin is ready? Id only be in favor if he's going to play almost daily. I just don't see that opening daily right now. It just makes sense to give him a little more time offensively and defensively for a few weeks at AAA. That's what I'd do.

UNLESS Martin blows you away, I'd be looking at Helman and Prato and playing them daily in ST. IF, again, you don't bring in another RH bat, Helman is a kid  you wanted to see last year. He's got the same game as Castro, with more pop/power. Prato might have a better hit tool? I think both of these invites might be under the radar options that fill the last spot unless someone else is added, or the Twins just trust Martin is ready to go.  

 

Not to demean Prato and Helman or to rule them out altogether, but Helman will be 28 and Prato will be 26 and neither has sniffed the majors as of yet. It may be past their time and younger guys will get their chances (Lee and Martin). Adding either to the 40-man so that Martin can get 50 at-bats at Triple A makes little sense to me. Neither guy is primarily an outfielder, although I understand that Helman has played a fair amount on the grass. 

I just don't know what to make of Triple A statistics right now. Guys without much power are getting lots of homers and guys that aren't great hitters are putting up boxcar numbers, like Andrew Stevenson last year. 

To me, it's an open competition for the final position player spot and the guys on the major league roster have the advantage. 

[High heat]

I can’t see Larnach being the last bench spot. He doesn’t do anything different or better then either Kepler or Wallner  and can’t play CF.  
 

My guess is they are going to bring in someone from the outside.  I think it is become less likely that MAT is back maybe Adam Duvall?

 

Otherwise the best utility player and CF option after ST. If that is Martin they need to make sure he is getting ample starts in CF and starting in LF against LHP.  
 

Martin would fit in nicely in PH late in games against left relievers and pinch running for Kepler or Wallner late in game along with starting in CF to give Buxton days off and Allow Castro to do the same gives Baldelli lots of options and moving parts late in games.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You say Miranda is not healthy. I know he wasn’t throwing as of a week ago, but he was hitting. It’ll be interesting to see what he looks like hitting wise. If he can get back to anything resembling his 2022 season, his bat will play right?

Seems he faded in late ‘22 - no real reason to have confidence his bat will play - earn attention in St. Paul first…………Santana is squarely ahead of him at 1B. No reason that a guy coming off injury, with options, that’s a mediocre defender at his two positions is going to have a chance at a roster spot. Even if he hits .400 this spring, where does he play?

Unless the team commits to have Lewis take reps in LF this spring, the last roster spot definitely goes to an OF. Martin on the roster or Lewis in LF clears up the “need” for a RH outfield bat v. LH pitching………..Castro is an option in that role as well. Lewis there opens a spot for Lee at 3B, if he’s the last guy on roster.

Martin in CF - Castro in RF - Buxton at DH v. LH pitching makes sense to me.

Larnach as a rotation guy in the corner spots is probable to start the year. LH bat v. RH pitching at DH. Lets Castro float and remain flexible through the games.

Kiersy Jr., nice speed in CF & off bench, probably isn’t ready & a long shot - Martin is more probable. With all 3 guys having options, my assumption is they’ll give Larnach AB’s early in the year and see how he looks. He did lead the team with 38 RBI at some point in June last season.

Lastly, a long shot early but a “maybe” by July, is Lee at 2B a bunch and Julien at DH v. RH pitching.

To me, the Julien at 1B talk is not a real option……….unless Kirilloff has a significant injury & out months.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

God bless Goodrum for "coming home" and helping the Saints. But he's also about the 5th or 6th emergency option at this point.

The FO HATES losing depth, which stinks for Larnach as I still believe there would be a few teams that would love to grab him as a late bloomer. If the season started tomorrow, he's on the roster as an OF and DH against RHP. Never forget 75-80% of the time that's what you're facing. He's still got talent and potential. I'm just not certain he's where he's supposed to be. We'll see.

THANK YOU Ted for including Helman and Prato in your OP. Why does everyone proclaim how wonderful Castro is and forget to realize that opportunity allowed him to be what he was last year, and forget that there's a couple of guys this year that might make a difference. 

If the Twins go  out tomorrow and sign Taylor as a speedy, super glove OF with some pop, I'm 100% OK. With Martin in the wings and available for promotion at any time, I'm OK with a bat first addition. I still like a solid, neutral split bat addition like Duvall on a 1yr. Better against RHP than Wallner, Kepler, OK if he's forced to play daily. 

But talent and payroll regardless, do the Twins actually think Martin is ready? Id only be in favor if he's going to play almost daily. I just don't see that opening daily right now. It just makes sense to give him a little more time offensively and defensively for a few weeks at AAA. That's what I'd do.

UNLESS Martin blows you away, I'd be looking at Helman and Prato and playing them daily in ST. IF, again, you don't bring in another RH bat, Helman is a kid  you wanted to see last year. He's got the same game as Castro, with more pop/power. Prato might have a better hit tool? I think both of these invites might be under the radar options that fill the last spot unless someone else is added, or the Twins just trust Martin is ready to go.  

 

Keirsy Jr. showed up in ‘23 & with CF chops and nice speed…….could be in the mix. Don’t understand the Goodrum move other than they just had a spot and could DFA later & try to float through waivers?

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seems he faded in late ‘22 - no real reason to have confidence his bat will play - earn attention in St. Paul first…………Santana is squarely ahead of him at 1B. No reason that a guy coming off injury, with options, that’s a mediocre defender at his two positions is going to have a chance at a roster spot. Even if he hits .400 this spring, where does he play?

Unless the team commits to have Lewis take reps in LF this spring, the last roster spot definitely goes to an OF. Martin on the roster or Lewis in LF clears up the “need” for a RH outfield bat v. LH pitching………..Castro is an option in that role as well. Lewis there opens a spot for Lee at 3B, if he’s the last guy on roster.

Martin in CF - Castro in RF - Buxton at DH v. LH pitching makes sense to me.

Larnach as a rotation guy in the corner spots is probable to start the year. LH bat v. RH pitching at DH. Lets Castro float and remain flexible through the games.

Kiersy Jr., nice speed in CF & off bench, probably isn’t ready & a long shot - Martin is more probable. With all 3 guys having options, my assumption is they’ll give Larnach AB’s early in the year and see how he looks. He did lead the team with 38 RBI at some point in June last season.

Lastly, a long shot early but a “maybe” by July, is Lee at 2B a bunch and Julien at DH v. RH pitching.

To me, the Julien at 1B talk is not a real option……….unless Kirilloff has a significant injury & out months.

I'd imagine it'll be a right handed hitter outfielder that they bring in too. Or at least someone that they can platoon with Wallner.

Miranda is kind of a wait and see. He has to earn it. He can certainly get to dh at bats if he is swinging well, but I'd imagine some time at St. Paul makes sense too.

Lewis at 3b is the plan. I don't see him moving to the outfield.

Kirilloff has to earn it in a sense too right? When Lee is ready (and he will be) IF everyone is healthy, then Julien can certainly slide to 1b or dh and have Lee take 2b and also backup Correa and Lewis. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd imagine it'll be a right handed hitter outfielder that they bring in too. Or at least someone that they can platoon with Wallner.

Miranda is kind of a wait and see. He has to earn it. He can certainly get to dh at bats if he is swinging well, but I'd imagine some time at St. Paul makes sense too.

Lewis at 3b is the plan. I don't see him moving to the outfield.

Kirilloff has to earn it in a sense too right? When Lee is ready (and he will be) IF everyone is healthy, then Julien can certainly slide to 1b or dh and have Lee take 2b and also backup Correa and Lewis. 

All the “baseball guys” analysis to date have Lee projected for left side of the infield. Can he play 2B, without a doubt. I understand being nervous about Lewis in the OF but realistically, LF is physically less demanding than 3B. It solves the RH hitting OF issue & allows the better 3B defender into the line-up. DH is also a good health move occasionally for Lewis.

I’ve compared Julien & Kirilloff’s offense here before. Julien has better power by a HR in 21 AB’s v. a HR in 25 AB’s for Kirilloff. Kirilloff, while still hampered at times by injury (which can’t last forever) hit .270 (7 points higher than Julien btw) with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ …………….other than being injury prone & then playing not even half the time in ‘23…….am not really sure why anyone thinks Julien would supplant a healthy Kirilloff at 1B? Why do people, objectively, not think the Twins should want &/or need his bat in the line-up as much as possible????

Julien at DH is a reasonable thought.

Sorry, as I said above, if Miranda hits .400 this spring, he still doesn’t have a spot on the roster. Can’t roster a DH to hit against LH pitching (and not get everyday AB’s he’d get in St. Paul)

Interesting stat here in last couple days - Buxton has better reverse splits than v. LH pitching. If that’s accurate, he slots as DH often and limits Julien’s options there.

I expect stays quo for the 26 man unless they acquire an OF. Meaning, to start the year, Larnach is the 26th man.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

What's everyone think about Tommy Pham...

[stringer bell]

41 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Keirsy Jr. showed up in ‘23 & with CF chops and nice speed…….could be in the mix. Don’t understand the Goodrum move other than they just had a spot and could DFA later & try to float through waivers?

Goodrum signed a minor league contract and likely will be a multi-position player at St. Paul. IIRC, Goodrum hasn't played middle infield for a couple of years, so he might be limited in his utility value. 

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

THANK YOU Ted for including Helman and Prato in your OP. Why does everyone proclaim how wonderful Castro is and forget to realize that opportunity allowed him to be what he was last year, and forget that there's a couple of guys this year that might make a difference. 

Willi had three years of major league experience with the Tigers when he was non-tendered at almost exactly the same age the Prato will be (two years younger than Helman) coming into spring training. Castro had a great 140 PA run in the COVID year (with an obvious BABiP outlier), so his credentials going into 2023 are significantly different than Prato and Helman in 2024. I wish both players well and hope they can reach their major league dream, but to me both are long shots for breaking camp with the Twins. 

[saviking]

Lee will jump all of them mid season ..

[Riverbrian]

Barring No Injury and Barring No Acquisitions - If Rocco operates the same as last year with the strict adherence to the left/right platoon split. Niko Goodrum will break camp with the club due to strong career numbers against left handers and better positional flexibility.  

Handcuffs will be: Julien/Farmer - Wallner/Castro - Kirilloff/Goodrum or Miranda.  

Santana will play against both hands. 

The Twins are decent shape (8 deep against right handed pitching). It's against left handers where they fall short (6 deep and 6 deep with the inclusion of either Goodrum or Miranda. 

This is all based on the assumption that the Twins will once again try to keep the sanctity of their heavy platoon strategy. It wouldn't be my strategy but I assume that the Twins will not use mine and go with theirs instead. 

My guess is that if the Twins are still shopping... It will be for someone strong against left handers.  

Here are the Career Splits for every Twins Player with Major League Stats

OPS Career Splits vs RH:

Wallner - .949

Lewis - .939

Julien - .898

Correa - .805

Kepler - .790

Kirilloff - .769

Buxton - .765

Santana - .773

Larnach - .741

Castro - .696

Jeffers - .695

Miranda - .680

Vazquez - .665

Farmer - .657

Goodrum - .644

OPS Career Splits vs LH: (Under 100 AB's)

Correa - .859

Jeffers - .840

Farmer - .825

Lewis - .825 (59 AB's)

Santana - .819

Goodrum - .816

Buxton - .774

Miranda - .774

Vazquez - .735

Castro - .690

Kepler - .649

Kirilloff - .630

Larnach - .569

Julien - .447 (46 AB's)

Wallner - .442 (59 AB's)

Starting lineup vs Right Handers based on career splits:

Wallner - LF

Lewis - 3B

Julien - 2B

Correa - .SS

Kepler - .RF

Kirilloff - 1B

Buxton - .CF

Santana - DH

Jeffers/Vazquez - C

Extras:

Farmer - Goodrum - Castro

Starting lineup vs Lefthanders based on Career Splits:

Correa - .SS

Jeffers/Vazquez - C

Farmer - 2B

Lewis -  3B

Santana - 1B

Goodrum - DH

Buxton - CF

Castro - LF

Kepler - RF

Extras:

Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Lee will jump all of them mid season ..

It is very possible they are keeping this spot open for Brooks Lee.

[roger]

On 2/19/2024 at 8:07 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Ted accurately describes the extent of our “bench” on the farm to be called up in case of injury (excluding Lee, of course). Not a bad set of choices, really.
 

Each could have a case for the final spot.  Another addition is probably the front runner.  But in the event we stand pat, it will all come down to who performs best in ST and, to a lesser extent, Buxton’s health (in which case, the final spot must go to someone who can play CF). Miranda and Severino probably have the toughest path in any event. 

Sure wish we had Steer or CES in the role, but, alas, we gave them away for less than a bag of magic beans,

Nashville, I agree with almost everything you say above as I do most of your comments.  But then you have to throw a comment in that just plain puts a burr under my saddle.  That isn't that I also don't wish they hadn't traded Steer or CES, although both would have a tough time finding playing time if Royce and AK are both healthy.  But the comment that bugs me is that they "gave them away for less than a bag of magic beans," although I got a good smile from the magic beans part.  At the time they needed pitching and I recall reading several comments right here naming Mahle as a pitcher they should go out and get.  Should they have known he was going to break down?  i don't know, but on the surface that trade made a lot of sense...at the trade deadline when it was made.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Santana will play against both hands. 

Do you think it is wise to use career stats for a 38 year old? 
 

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Niko Goodrum will break camp with the club due to strong career numbers against left handers and better positional flexibility.  

Almost all of his career numbers are age 26/27. Is that relevant at 32?

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think it is wise to use career stats for a 38 year old? 
 

Almost all of his career numbers are age 26/27. Is that relevant at 32?

Wise?

Absolutely not. I believe the past is the past and I also believe individual stats tend to pinball up down and sideways from time period to time period. I don't believe that 2023 was the new struggling Correa walking through the door and 2023 is what Correa will be from here on out.

I believe... (I pray)... that Correa will rebound to Correa makes us happy levels in 2024. Will he rebound to 2022 levels (significantly larger success against left handers) or 2021 level (equal stats against right handers and left handers) or some other version of overall acceptable numbers.

For this particular exercise. I prefer the larger sample to one year smaller samples especially in regards to stats versus left handers and in the case of Santana or Goodrum... I wasn't going to choose an arbitrary time period according to me. So... career in all it's glory was what I used. 

It looks like we are light versus left handers in comparison to versus right handers. 

To be honest... I only did it based on Twins utilization that I think they take too far. It is my opinion that If Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner are on the roster... the Twins will need 3 players to replace them versus left handers. If Larnach gets the last spot... then we will need 4 players to replace them versus LH.

Castro's numbers don't support being a platoon partner from the right side but may have to be shoe horned in. It sure looks like we are short on the vs. left hander side of the coin. Bring back a player like Michael A. Taylor or look at your roster... and that leaves you with Goodrum or Miranda?  

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Wise?

Absolutely not. I believe the past is the past and I also believe individual stats tend to pinball up down and sideways from time period to time period. I don't believe that 2023 was the new struggling Correa walking through the door and 2023 is what Correa will be from here on out.

I believe... (I pray)... that Correa will rebound to Correa makes us happy levels in 2024. Will he rebound to 2022 levels (significantly larger success against left handers) or 2021 level (equal stats against right handers and left handers) or some other version of overall acceptable numbers.

For this particular exercise. I prefer the larger sample to one year smaller samples especially in regards to stats versus left handers and in the case of Santana or Goodrum... I wasn't going to choose an arbitrary time period according to me. So... career in all it's glory was what I used. 

It looks like we are light versus left handers in comparison to versus right handers. 

To be honest... I only did it based on Twins utilization that I think they take too far. It is my opinion that If Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner are on the roster... the Twins will need 3 players to replace them versus left handers. If Larnach gets the last spot... then we will need 4 players to replace them versus LH.

Castro's numbers don't support being a platoon partner from the right side but may have to be shoe horned in. It sure looks like we are short on the vs. left hander side of the coin. Bring back a player like Michael A. Taylor or look at your roster... and that leaves you with Goodrum or Miranda?  

I would start Kepler and Julien and even Wallner a fair amount against the smaller proportion of left handed pitching they see and add a bat for right handlers. I think your long term tells us Santana is significantly better against lefties but I don’t buy that his numbers randomly pinball. He has declined as a hitter and at this point from 1B/DH is only useful against  lefties.

Larnach Is the better option for the strong side platoon right now but he gets knocked off the roster if they add a weak side platoon outfielder. Even in games that this added short side platoon hitter starts they are probably going to see that lefty twice. It is a better use of spot to go strong side and give our talented young left handed hitters some needed at bats against lefties. Why not give them until after the all star break to show if we really need this limited use bat? There are always these kinds of bats available at the deadline. I’d even be OK if the found a new home for Farmer forcing Julien into more of those at bats with Martin in the roster getting others.

Should they really roster three short side platoon players in Santana, Farmer and the new bat?

[RpR]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Should they really roster three short side platoon players in Santana, Farmer and the new bat?

Well they already roster two short side players in Kirilloff and Julen.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I would start Kepler and Julien and even Wallner a fair amount against the smaller proportion of left handed pitching they see and add a bat for right handlers. I think your long term tells us Santana is significantly better against lefties but I don’t buy that his numbers randomly pinball. He has declined as a hitter and at this point from 1B/DH is only useful against  lefties.

Larnach Is the better option for the strong side platoon right now but he gets knocked off the roster if they add a weak side platoon outfielder. Even in games that this added short side platoon hitter starts they are probably going to see that lefty twice. It is a better use of spot to go strong side and give our talented young left handed hitters some needed at bats against lefties. Why not give them until after the all star break to show if we really need this limited use bat? There are always these kinds of bats available at the deadline. I’d even be OK if the found a new home for Farmer forcing Julien into more of those at bats with Martin in the roster getting others.

Should they really roster three short side platoon players in Santana, Farmer and the new bat?

You are one of the sharpest posters on this website. I'm not going to dispute any of your above post because you know what you are talking about. I think you and I are pretty close to the same page. 

The post you originally responded to from me was an attempt to lay out the roster like the Twins might do using full consideration of how they operated last year with the extreme platooning of Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner. 

You ask should they really roster three short side platoon players? My answer to that:

No... I don't want them to roster one short side platoon player because it's a waste of a roster space. I want them to train, develop and acquire hitters who can hit both left handers and right handers. Short side platoons only last for a second or two anyway because injuries are going to force them into the lineup against right handers anyway.

I think starving a young hitter of the opportunity face lefthanders is a development crime. I understand why they are doing it... it's a crime nonetheless.

However... no matter what I think...  based on how they worked the lineup last year... I think that that they will roster three short side platoon players because Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner are still on the roster which tells us all that they will need 3 of them for the 3 of them. That leads me to believe that Goodrum or Miranda are the front runners unless an acquisition is made like Michael A. Taylor. It could be Austin Martin but Austin can be make his major league debut down the road. Goodrum and Miranda have made their debut but once again... this isn't what I would do... this is what I think they will do.     

On the topic of Santana... In my opinion... His numbers will pinball because all numbers pinball... his pinballing will just be done at a lower range than what he was doing in his prime. You are right that his career numbers are misleading and they shouldn't be reflective of his current status. However... his OPS while consistently better against left handers has pinballed upward against both arms consistently in the past three years. 

OPS Against Right Handers. 

2021 - .636

2022 - .655

2023 - .727

OPS against left handers

2021 - .718

2022 - .789

2023 - .807

Even at .727 against RH in 2023... That .727 would rank 8th on the team against RH (Using Career Stats for everyone else).

Incidentally 7th would be Larnach but there is no room for Larnach because he would become the 4th member of the 26 man roster who needs to be taken out against left handers. Remember this is how the team operates... not how I want them to operate.  There is only enough space for 3 left handers that need to be removed against lefties and Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner have those spots. Just like you said... A short side platoon for Larnach kicks him off the roster.  

Bottom Line and I think you agree with this... Since 75% of pitchers throw from the right side... Wouldn't it be great... Wouldn't it be amazing... If we could roster a bunch of hitters who could hit that 75% and that could include Larnach. All you have to do is let your lefties hit against lefties for that other 25%. They get better at it and we are loaded for bear 75% of the time.  

My favorite part of your post was this sentence: 

Why not give them until after the all star break to show if we really need this limited use bat?

I could not agree more... I have been screaming for this for years. 

You have until the trade deadline to gather fresh data to determine what you need at the trade deadline for the stretch run. Use that time to determine who is hitting and who isn't. If they are hitting you don't need at the trade deadline... if they are not... well... now you need at the deadline.

Not letting Julien hit lefties into July... you have answered the question before the question is asked. You know you need a right handed hitting handcuff for him because you refuse to operate unless there is one. Need hasn't been fairly determined yet. 

Always enjoy our discussions. You know what you are talking about.  

[jorgenswest]

I always appreciate your posts @Riverbrian

Your post makes me wonder if 3 platoons is ever feasible. This year in particular they will have a back up catcher and up the middle player in Vazquez and Castro. Neither is a platoon player but both are critical. That leaves two spots. You can’t platoon 3 positions with those two spots.

More than ever they need JD Martinez who doesn’t need to platoon. His career OPS against left and right would rank first (dwarfing everyone else) and 4th. He is old and in decline also but has space for that decline.

MLBTR listed the Twins among possible destinations today though a long shot.

[Riverbrian]

32 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I always appreciate your posts @Riverbrian

Your post makes me wonder if 3 platoons is ever feasible. This year in particular they will have a back up catcher and up the middle player in Vazquez and Castro. Neither is a platoon player but both are critical. That leaves two spots. You can’t platoon 3 positions with those two spots.

More than ever they need JD Martinez who doesn’t need to platoon. His career OPS against left and right would rank first (dwarfing everyone else) and 4th. He is old and in decline also but has space for that decline.

MLBTR listed the Twins among possible destinations today though a long shot.

I think we need a JD Martinez sized bat and it was what I was hoping for this off-season. JD isn't my first choice because he would choke up the DH spot and I'd rather let players rotate through the DH spot. I also don't like the uptick in K's last year that he had. I'd like to see less K's this season so Solar interested me more...  But.. Yeah... I'd like a JD Martinez sized bat because that is what you do when you have your depth in place. You add to the top of the pile. 

3 Platoons ever feasible... I say no but there are teams besides the Twins that disagree with me and some are teams that I really respect.

The Dodgers - Margot, Taylor and Rojas will probably work the Short Side for Heyward, Muncy and Lux. Lux is young... I don't think they should do that but they probably will... The Dodgers are the same team that created Joc Pederson from his humble beginnings of highly ranked prospect. It's hard to argue what the Dodgers have done over the years and they platoon hard. 

Giants will platoon 3 without a doubt... they always do. The Rays will... they always do. 

Who Else? The Nats might but I don't think anyone else will do it to the extreme of the Twins, Dodgers, Giants and Rays. The Twins have joined a small group. 

In the Twins case... Like you said... Castro is up the middle important and on top of that... Castro isn't really a sensible platoon option for the short side because of his splits. However...the Twins will have to force Castro into the role of facing left handers because they haven't shown the inclination to force the young left handed hitters to hit left handers. 

Just get a Martinez sized bat who can hit both arms. It's better than strip mining players for the little bits of resources that they provide. 

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

Well they already roster two short side players in Kirilloff and Julen.

I don't think you understand "short" side of a platoon.

[jkcarew]

On 2/19/2024 at 10:37 PM, jorgenswest said:

Let’s suppose they add that short side platoon right handed bat. Who is the 9th hitter that will join the line up against right handed pitching? Why is this less important? None of their options (Santana, Farmer, Castro, Vazquez, new right handed bat) would be a counted on run producer against a right handed bat.

Any additional right handed bat will help in about 25% of the starts. Even then they will likely have the platoon advantage for only 2 of their plate appearances that game as pitchers no longer go deep. The cost of this short sided platoon bat is a spot for a batter than can produce against right handed pitching.

I think the real priority is an every day bat that fits in the top/middle of the line up. Polanco was that bat. They don’t have enough roster space to replace him with two platoon players and both need another bat.

They can go get a bat that is run producer against both right and left handed pitching. Has JD Martinez signed anywhere yet? They may need his bat in the lineup more than they need the positional flexibility. 

 

I agree with JD Martinez. But, he’s a right handed bat and would be a ‘starter’ at DH, and/or 1B. I guess my assumption is that (regardless of what they ‘should’ do)…a platoon bat is all that’s in the budget…if even that. And in that scenario, a right-handed bat has a much lower threshold to clear in order to make the club better. A left-handed bat would have to be better than Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, Kepler, Wallner, and Julien to play against right-handed pitching. High bar. Meanwhile it’s pretty easy to improve that group against left-handed pitching…and to exceed the likes of Farmer, etc as platoon options.

Regardless, if a left-handed bat that clears that bar is out there and available…yes, I’d take him at DH, or to force the likes of Wallner or Julien to DH.

[stringer bell]

51 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I agree with JD Martinez. But, he’s a right handed bat and would be a ‘starter’ at DH, and/or 1B. I guess my assumption is that (regardless of what they ‘should’ do)…a platoon bat is all that’s in the budget…if even that. And in that scenario, a right-handed bat has a much lower threshold to clear in order to make the club better. A left-handed bat would have to be better than Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, Kepler, Wallner, and Julien to play against right-handed pitching. High bar. Meanwhile it’s pretty easy to improve that group against left-handed pitching…and to exceed the likes of Farmer, etc as platoon options.

Regardless, if a left-handed bat that clears that bar is out there and available…yes, I’d take him at DH, or to force the likes of Wallner or Julien to DH.

JD Martinez wouldn’t be part of a platoon, but assuming good health of Buxton, he’s going to be the DH about 40 games at least. I don’t know if there’s room for a DH only on the 2024 Twins. 

[jkcarew]

34 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

JD Martinez wouldn’t be part of a platoon, but assuming good health of Buxton, he’s going to be the DH about 40 games at least. I don’t know if there’s room for a DH only on the 2024 Twins. 

No..I guess the question is, can Martinez play 1B? (Hasn’t much.) If he can, he could be in the lineup basically every day at either 1B or DH. (You’d have to part ways with Santana in that scenario… if/when Kirilloff proves healthy…and the FO is sure to gag at wasting that money.)

But if Martinez can only DH, you’re probably right. Still fwiw, Martinez has been a much better hitter than Buxton against right-handed pitching over his career. A lot better. I’d be willing to sit Buxton when he’s not playing CF, in a scenario with JD Martinez…Buxton just isn’t very valuable as a DH against right-handed pitching. You just make sure his off days are against right-handed starters, which shouldn’t be a problem. But the FO ain’t going to do that…even though it would be moot for the approx 50% of the season Buxton is all but guaranteed to miss.

Anyway…here we have the reasons to get Martinez…and the reasons it’s about 110% that it won’t happen.

[jorgenswest]

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I agree with JD Martinez. But, he’s a right handed bat and would be a ‘starter’ at DH, and/or 1B. I guess my assumption is that (regardless of what they ‘should’ do)…a platoon bat is all that’s in the budget…if even that. And in that scenario, a right-handed bat has a much lower threshold to clear in order to make the club better. A left-handed bat would have to be better than Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, Kepler, Wallner, and Julien to play against right-handed pitching. High bar. Meanwhile it’s pretty easy to improve that group against left-handed pitching…and to exceed the likes of Farmer, etc as platoon options.

Regardless, if a left-handed bat that clears that bar is out there and available…yes, I’d take him at DH, or to force the likes of Wallner or Julien to DH.

Who is your DH against right handed pitching? Isn’t the bar either Santana or Castro? That is likely a pretty low bar. Larnach hopefully clears that bar but he isn’t on the roster if they add a right handed bat and retain Farmer. Polanco would have cleared that bar. Gordon’s projections against right handed pitching clears that bar. Martinez clears the bar and might be doable on a one year commitment. Otherwise they may as well hope on Larnach or a healthy Miranda. If Brooks Lee clears that bar put him on the roster on that spot and DH Julien. That can’t happen either if they add a third short side platoon bat.

[jkcarew]

11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Who is your DH against right handed pitching? Isn’t the bar either Santana or Castro? That is likely a pretty low bar. Larnach hopefully clears that bar but he isn’t on the roster if they add a right handed bat and retain Farmer. Polanco would have cleared that bar. Gordon’s projections against right handed pitching clears that bar. Martinez clears the bar and might be doable on a one year commitment. Otherwise they may as well hope on Larnach or a healthy Miranda. If Brooks Lee clears that bar put him on the roster on that spot and DH Julien. That can’t happen either if they add a third short side platoon bat.

Right…a DH is the whole, or low bar, (offensively) for a left-handed bat to address. Or somebody that can slide Julien or Wallner to DH, while providing more offense than Larnach/Santana which seem like the LH DH options currently.

I think the solve we’ll get is Lee. Might work out. His LH numbers have been solid. Unclear on how/if they think they can address the vulnerabilities against lefties.