Kep / Manoah?

[David HK]

I just came across this today as background while marking papers....

Interesting concept- do you think it would include propects, too, or straight up?

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

This could have wheels. This guy (in the video) seems to like Polanco more. I'm thinking I'd do that. 

[TopGunn#22]

I would do Polanco for Manoah for sure and I think it actually works better for the Blue Jays.  Their OF is fairly well set with Kiermeier in CF, Springer in RF and Varsho in LF.  What they really need is a 2B with some pop.  Merrifield did OK last year but he's a FA.  Biggio just hasn't seized the opportunity.  

Manoah would be a worthwhile gamble for the Twins.  His upside is a solid #2 or #3 depending on how Joe Ryan pitches.  His downside is a complete bust and out of baseball.  (as was shown last year).  He's young, so he's got time on his side and I like how the Twins have been able to take pitchers and find a few things to make them better (Pablo, Sonny Gray).

Kepler or Polanco on their own are not bringing back a Luis Castillo or Shane Bieber.  Manoah's potential upside is worth the risk.  I would still like an affordable FA signing (Bauer, Wacha, ??) to add one more SP for depth just in case Manoah doesn't work out and Paddack spends time on the I.L. but a group of SP like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Manoah, Bauer, Paddack, Varland, (that's 7) and Festa and SWR for sure in St. Paul (maybe Dobnak?) would give the Twins enough depth in their rotation for the season.  

In the end, I would prefer to deal Polanco because Julien is the starter, Farmer could offer a RH platoon, and Brooks Lee is coming.  Trading Kepler necessitates adding someone like an Adam Duval as a RH outfield bat.  

[tony&rodney]

Toronto has not likely reached the point where they will just send Manoah away and I don't see Falvey looking to add a pitcher whose contributions are a sheer gamble. I guess Falvey would trade Gordon for Manoah, which is a way of saying it is a very unlikely event.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I don't see Falvey looking to add a pitcher whose contributions are a sheer gamble

I also don't see Manoah coming over as a 1 for 1 but in a package to hedge against some of the volatility it could happen.

[chpettit19]

I love the idea of adding Manoah if/when they trade Polanco or Kepler. Assuming they have a good handle on his medicals and believe they know what went so off the rails last year and can get him back on track. His contract runs the same duration as Lopez, and if they get him back to his 2022 form he's the best pitcher on the staff. That's more upside than they could possibly get in any other trade of those 2 vets. His downside is that his career is basically over, and that's why they'd have to have a really good idea of what went wrong for him last year because he was completely unplayable.

If they can spin Polanco or Kepler into what they believe is a fixable Manoah they absolutely should. Then add Hoskins with the salary savings plus a little extra (I don't know if they have room to go any higher than they're currently at, but if it's possible that'd be how I'd spend the money).

I will note that JP Morosi (the insider who sparked this video) has, to my knowledge, not suggested that this trade has actually been spoken about between these 2 teams. I've seen him on MLB Network a couple times in the past week mention that it could be a fit, but openly state that he's not aware of any conversations actually having happened along these lines. And Manoah is 26, not 24.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Toronto has not likely reached the point where they will just send Manoah away and I don't see Falvey looking to add a pitcher whose contributions are a sheer gamble. I guess Falvey would trade Gordon for Manoah, which is a way of saying it is a very unlikely event.

Shedding Polanco’s salary to get a decent prospect may happen at some point to free up the $$ to pay a pitcher they acquire in trade or sign as a FA. - maybe? Manoah, for Polanco & Gordon’s flexibility and inexpensive upside, could fill that “prospect” roll. Maybe it’s Polanco & Miranda as a potential depth 3B alternative for the Jays? Polanco and a Minor league guy?

Seems he (Manoah) needs to get in better shape - maybe López can be a mentor in this pursuit?

[FilthyMogwai]

Not sure why everyone wants to add Manoah so badly. He was cooked last year and his head wasn't screwed on right. 

 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

Not sure why everyone wants to add Manoah so badly. He was cooked last year and his head wasn't screwed on right. 

 

He's 26 and was 3rd in the Cy Young 2 years ago with a significantly better season than Lopez had last year at the age of 27. Pretty easy to see why there'd be some appeal there. I think we've all conceded that there's very real downside as well. But there's certainly reason to want a 26 year old Cy Young candidate with 4 years of control left if the Twins think they know what went wrong last year.

[FilthyMogwai]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

He's 26 and was 3rd in the Cy Young 2 years ago with a significantly better season than Lopez had last year at the age of 27. Pretty easy to see why there'd be some appeal there. I think we've all conceded that there's very real downside as well. But there's certainly reason to want a 26 year old Cy Young candidate with 4 years of control left if the Twins think they know what went wrong last year.

Obviously he was good in 2022.  Even 2021. But he was a mess last year. No reason to trade viable assets for a pitcher that's lost it. It's silly.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seems he (Manoah) needs to get in better shape - maybe López can be a mentor in this pursuit?

People who railed against Sano's physical fitness would have a field day with Manoah on the Twins staff, at the first stumble.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Sometimes the true downside to a trade is the inability to recover from it if things go badly.  Best example ever. . . the infamous Vikings Herschel Walker trade.  The Vikings survived but by no means was it a good idea.

Contrast that with a proposal to send Polanco and a lower prospect (or two) to Toronto for Manoah.  If he can be fixed, even partially, he's a very valuable commodity.  If not, he might be done with baseball entirely.  Trading Polanco means losing one of the longest serving Twins who has been very valuable over the years and is a very solid veteran presence on the team.  However, he plays the position that is inarguably the deepest position on the team in second base, making it the easiest to recover from if the trade goes badly.  I would say that the Twins are uniquely suited to take this chance.  It's potentially boom or bust, but I think it is worth taking the chance. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, FilthyMogwai said:

Obviously he was good in 2022.  Even 2021. But he was a mess last year. No reason to trade viable assets for a pitcher that's lost it. It's silly.

Max Kepler was a terrible hitter for 2021 and 2022 and half of 2023 but now he's worth more than a possible Cy Young winner? It's almost like giving up on 26 year olds after 1 down season is silly.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, FilthyMogwai said:

Not sure why everyone wants to add Manoah so badly. He was cooked last year and his head wasn't screwed on right. 

 

Because he's not done and screws can always be tightened or loosened to adjust them properly and make them right.

[jorgenswest]

I would do the deal.

Even if the chance of him returning to his 2022 form is around 25%, I would still do the deal. That kind of performance would have tremendous impact in the regular season and playoffs and is worth gambling on.

I am sure some would argue that Falvey better be right. If Falvey goes by that measure he would rarely make a deal. Every pitcher acquisition is a risk. The upside here is worth the risk.

 

[tony&rodney]

I have been convinced to add Randy Dobnak to Nick Gordon for Manoah.

[wabene]

Looking at that video still, Kepler and Manoah make quite the odd couple, lol. 

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Shedding Polanco’s salary to get a decent prospect may happen at some point to free up the $$ to pay a pitcher they acquire in trade or sign as a FA. - maybe? Manoah, for Polanco & Gordon’s flexibility and inexpensive upside, could fill that “prospect” roll. Maybe it’s Polanco & Miranda as a potential depth 3B alternative for the Jays? Polanco and a Minor league guy?

Seems he (Manoah) needs to get in better shape - maybe López can be a mentor in this pursuit?

A professional athlete that is not committed enough to stay in shape makes me seriously question their desire to be good/great.  Lopez not only stays in shape but he is constantly working on his craft.  If Toronto is willing to give up on him that makes me wonder even more if he is a headcase or just not driven enough to succeed at this level.   However, there is so much upside that this is something they should definitely explore.  

[TopGunn#22]

I can't say that I disagree with you in principal Major League Ready, but Twins fans need only look to our beloved Kent Hrbek to see that not all people really care.  Old Tigers fans would point to Mickey Lolich and say "give that fat guy the ball  in any big game."  

Baseball is a game that is technique driven.  Players don't have to be Bo Jackson to stand out.  A great physique is never a problem, but Hrbek showed you can be fat and out of shape but still pretty darn good.  

[Craig Arko]

53 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I can't say that I disagree with you in principal Major League Ready, but Twins fans need only look to our beloved Kent Hrbek to see that not all people really care.  Old Tigers fans would point to Mickey Lolich and say "give that fat guy the ball  in any big game."  

Baseball is a game that is technique driven.  Players don't have to be Bo Jackson to stand out.  A great physique is never a problem, but Hrbek showed you can be fat and out of shape but still pretty darn good.  

As did some guy named George Herman Ruth.

[Riverbrian]

I would trade Kepler for Manoah. 

I would have cut Kepler in June so it would be like getting Manoah for nothing.  

 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I can't say that I disagree with you in principal Major League Ready, but Twins fans need only look to our beloved Kent Hrbek to see that not all people really care.  Old Tigers fans would point to Mickey Lolich and say "give that fat guy the ball  in any big game."  

Baseball is a game that is technique driven.  Players don't have to be Bo Jackson to stand out.  A great physique is never a problem, but Hrbek showed you can be fat and out of shape but still pretty darn good.  

No doubt some guys are so talented they can get by especially at 1B.  However, I think it's reasonable to question a players desire to be great when they don't even try to stay in shape?  I mean we are talking about professional athletes.  So, unless we don't think athleticism is important, those players are not maximizing their capabilities.   If we look at the NBA, NFL, and NHL, as well as many MLB players, their diet and workout regimens are quite sophisticated.  I guess I just have a lot more confidence in a player who is working hard to be great like Lopez. 

[FilthyMogwai]

On 1/15/2024 at 12:26 PM, chpettit19 said:

Max Kepler was a terrible hitter for 2021 and 2022 and half of 2023 but now he's worth more than a possible Cy Young winner? It's almost like giving up on 26 year olds after 1 down season is silly.

Your definition of "possible Cy Young winner" and mine are radically different. Manoah is a reclamation project, who is far off of his Cy Young form. Did you follow him at all last year? I sure did and he was a mess.

 

Demoted twice last year. And not to AAA either. Try rookie ball, where he was promptly shelled for 11 runs in 3 innings. That and he had assorted injuries to his lower half (knee, back and quad).

That' your definition of a potential Cy Young award winner?

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

No doubt some guys are so talented they can get by especially at 1B.  However, I think it's reasonable to question a players desire to be great when they don't even try to stay in shape?  I mean we are talking about professional athletes.  So, unless we don't think athleticism is important, those players are not maximizing their capabilities.   If we look at the NBA, NFL, and NHL, as well as many MLB players, their diet and workout regimens are quite sophisticated.  I guess I just have a lot more confidence in a player who is working hard to be great like Lopez. 

Lopez wasn't in great shape before last offseason. He actually gave a lot of credit to the fact that he changed his workout regimen and diet to get in much better shape for last year so he could stay stronger throughout the season. No he was never as big of a guy as Manoah, but it took him until after his age 26 season to kick it into high gear in terms of working hard to be great by changing his workouts and diet. Manoah is going into his age 26 season. Now Manoah is a big ol' boy and I don't know what goes into his diet, but I do see him working out and throwing a great deal on social media every offseason. CC Sabathia is another 6'6" pitcher and he was even heavier than Manoah.

I don't know if Manoah works hard enough or has the same desire as Lopez to be great, but it took Lopez until this point in his life and career to really dedicate himself and there's certainly examples of guys as big as Manoah being really good. We also simply don't know what effort he's putting in to "try to stay in shape." Like I said, there's many videos of him working out and throwing on social media. I'd hope the Twins would do their due diligence on him and his makeup before making a deal, but there's a chance he's just a big dude even though he's putting in as much work as anyone else.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

Your definition of "possible Cy Young winner" and mine are radically different. Manoah is a reclamation project, who is far off of his Cy Young form. Did you follow him at all last year? I sure did and he was a mess.

 

Demoted twice last year. And not to AAA either. Try rookie ball, where he was promptly shelled for 11 runs in 3 innings. That and he had assorted injuries to his lower half (knee, back and quad).

That' your definition of a potential Cy Young award winner?

He was 3rd in Cy Young at the age of 24. If that's not a "possible Cy Young winner" I don't know what is. Has to be 2nd? It was 1 bad year. Yes, I did follow him, and he was a mess. Not at all denying that. But there aren't many humans on the planet with his talent for throwing a baseball. You're willing to write off a kid who just turned 26 a week ago because of 1 year. Cool. I am open to the possibility that his entire professional career before that 1 year may be a sign that he could still be very good. We'll just have to agree to disagree that 1 horrid season at the age of 25 means the guy's career is absolutely over.

[FilthyMogwai]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He was 3rd in Cy Young at the age of 24. If that's not a "possible Cy Young winner" I don't know what is. Has to be 2nd? It was 1 bad year. Yes, I did follow him, and he was a mess. Not at all denying that. But there aren't many humans on the planet with his talent for throwing a baseball. You're willing to write off a kid who just turned 26 a week ago because of 1 year. Cool. I am open to the possibility that his entire professional career before that 1 year may be a sign that he could still be very good. We'll just have to agree to disagree that 1 horrid season at the age of 25 means the guy's career is absolutely over.

You like telling me what I'm thinking, don't you? I'm not "writing him off", I'm saying his value right now (at this moment) is so low that I wouldn't pay much more than a mid level prospect for him because he's nothing more than a wild card at this point. 

The only saving grace is that the injuries last year were not arm related, and improved conditioning might fix the lower body injuries - but fixing what's between his ears is another story. His pitch sequences were all out of whack. Happens all the time, and there are good examples of players fixing it (think John Smoltz '91) and bad examples of players not fixing it (Scott Erickson second half of '91 for the rest of his tenure as a Twin).

And this isn't even about Kepler or Polanco's value in my mind. It's about not paying tangible assets for an extreme wild card.

I actually hope Manoah gets back on track - for my dynasty fantasy league and for the rookie cards of his that I own. Plus, I just like the guy - loved watching him mic'd up talking to Smoltz at the 2022 AS game while on the mound. Just two dudes talking their craft.

[Major League Ready]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lopez wasn't in great shape before last offseason. He actually gave a lot of credit to the fact that he changed his workout regimen and diet to get in much better shape for last year so he could stay stronger throughout the season. No he was never as big of a guy as Manoah, but it took him until after his age 26 season to kick it into high gear in terms of working hard to be great by changing his workouts and diet. Manoah is going into his age 26 season. Now Manoah is a big ol' boy and I don't know what goes into his diet, but I do see him working out and throwing a great deal on social media every offseason. CC Sabathia is another 6'6" pitcher and he was even heavier than Manoah.

I don't know if Manoah works hard enough or has the same desire as Lopez to be great, but it took Lopez until this point in his life and career to really dedicate himself and there's certainly examples of guys as big as Manoah being really good. We also simply don't know what effort he's putting in to "try to stay in shape." Like I said, there's many videos of him working out and throwing on social media. I'd hope the Twins would do their due diligence on him and his makeup before making a deal, but there's a chance he's just a big dude even though he's putting in as much work as anyone else.

I think we are on a very similar thought path here.  I really like the upside.  This is something worth taking a chance.  That gamble feels way better if the Twins believe Manoah is willing to put in the work.  Lopez is the perfect guy to help Manoah if he is wants to be helped.  I will be excited if this comes to fruition.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

You like telling me what I'm thinking, don't you? I'm not "writing him off", I'm saying his value right now (at this moment) is so low that I wouldn't pay much more than a mid level prospect for him because he's nothing more than a wild card at this point. 

The only saving grace is that the injuries last year were not arm related, and improved conditioning might fix the lower body injuries - but fixing what's between his ears is another story. His pitch sequences were all out of whack. Happens all the time, and there are good examples of players fixing it (think John Smoltz '91) and bad examples of players not fixing it (Scott Erickson second half of '91 for the rest of his tenure as a Twin).

And this isn't even about Kepler or Polanco's value in my mind. It's about not paying tangible assets for an extreme wild card.

I actually hope Manoah gets back on track - for my dynasty fantasy league and for the rookie cards of his that I own. Plus, I just like the guy - loved watching him mic'd up talking to Smoltz at the 2022 AS game while on the mound. Just two dudes talking their craft.

"He was cooked last year and his head wasn't screwed on right" is how you started things on this thread. Not a large leap to "writing him off" from "he was cooked and his head wasn't screwed on right." But I apologize for my misinterpretation of your words.

I don't know what was going on between his ears, and there's almost no chance you, or anyone on here, can convince me they know what's going on between any player's ears unless they know them personally. I'm going to take the bold guess and assume you don't personally know Alek Manoah. The Twins are actually pretty well known for adjusting pitch usage and sequencing under this regime to get improved results so if his only problem was pitch sequencing I'm even more on board with bringing him in.

We have a different level of risk aversion. It's all good. I don't expect Manoah to be wearing a Twins jersey at any point in his career, but if they could turn Polanco or Kepler into Manoah I'd take it. We'll just have to agree to disagree here.

[FilthyMogwai]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"He was cooked last year and his head wasn't screwed on right" is how you started things on this thread. Not a large leap to "writing him off" from "he was cooked and his head wasn't screwed on right." But I apologize for my misinterpretation of your words.

I don't know what was going on between his ears, and there's almost no chance you, or anyone on here, can convince me they know what's going on between any player's ears unless they know them personally. I'm going to take the bold guess and assume you don't personally know Alek Manoah. The Twins are actually pretty well known for adjusting pitch usage and sequencing under this regime to get improved results so if his only problem was pitch sequencing I'm even more on board with bringing him in.

We have a different level of risk aversion. It's all good. I don't expect Manoah to be wearing a Twins jersey at any point in his career, but if they could turn Polanco or Kepler into Manoah I'd take it. We'll just have to agree to disagree here.

He IS cooked and his head is NOT screwed on right. The results are evidence enough, but regarding his mental game -- that's not me speculating, he said so himself. You can Google search that for yourself, if you'd like.

Obviously, it is possible the Twins could fix him. But it's equally possible that they cannot. I'd argue more so. How often do you see pitchers that are messed up this bad, regain Cy Young form? I'd venture to guess that for every one you can name, I can name at least 10 that did not.

I don't mind the Twins taking a chance on him, but not at the expense of viable and affordable MLB talent.

[jorgenswest]

I think this deal is more likely than any of the others I have seen suggested. Would I rather have Gilbert or Luzardo? Of course. It might take Royce Lewis to get either one of them.

The Twins have the depth to replace Polanco or they are trading Kepler’s one year of control. I would do either to buy low on a pitcher who has been elite in this league.