When We Could See Top Twins Prospects Debut in 2024

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Ober went from 72.2 to 167. That's a little more than 30%, no?

Let's see if Ober can be productive this season before we count our chickens.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Let's see if Ober can be productive this season before we count our chickens.

I'm just saying there's not some hard and fast rule that guys don't jump more than 30%. Guys miss a season+ all the time with TJ and come back to throw 150+ innings. There's myriad reasons why Ober could struggle this year. Lopez could. Ryan could. If his velo and extension numbers are down from the jump I'll blame it on his innings jump. Otherwise there's far too many factors to blame that. It's also not out of the question that Canterino could be dominant in 5+ inning starts by the middle of April. 

We have different risk aversion. It's all good. I'm willing to risk more for the higher reward of a starter vs a reliever while you prefer taking the lower risk even if it comes with a lower reward. Nothing crazy about either of our stances from my view.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hate to say it, but I expect Polanco to be moved. Always liked him, but that's my guess. 

I also think Miranda has a place right now as a platoon with Kirilloff at 1B, and to face lefties all the time. If he shows more than that, good. I could also see the Twins bringing in a different right handed hitter to platoon with Kirilloff, but there will be space IF Miranda is going well right?

There are guys that have things to prove. Larnach and Wallner for sure, although I think Wallner has a leg up there. I can see Kepler or Larnach getting traded too, but if they are trying to win I can see Larnach going elsewhere instead of Kepler.

I LOVE Julien's eye at the plate, and his ability to hit fastballs. He also did show growth on the defensive side. 

We'll see how it all plays out. Generally things have a way of figuring themselves out. But I don't expect them to FORCE something that isn't ready. 

I also expect Polanco to be moved. Will make me sad because I think he's one of their best hitters and they need his offense. But I expect he'll be dealt. 

My only point really was that they aren't going to make any moves with a healthy roster to get Lee on it. He needs to show he's ready, but then he's waiting his turn like everyone else has. He just needs to be ready to take advantage of the chance that comes. He'll get his chance, but they aren't going to create a chance for him.

[jorgenswest]

10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Isn't Canterino a product of the Rice University pitching mill?  They probably had him throw 175 innings each month.  😁

The Rice myth is getting tiresome.

 

I believe the roots of the reputation for pitchers and injuries starts with the 2004 draft. Rice had 3 pitchers drafted in the first 8 picks and all 3 suffered arm injuries early in their professional careers. Their manager, Wayne Graham, was also Canterino’s manager in 2 of his 3 seasons.

There have been several other pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks in Graham’s era.

Ken Baugh missed his second professional season due to injury. Jon Skaggs was injured after 1 professional start and then missed his second season. Neither made it to the majors.

Matt Anderson was the first overall pick in 1997. He did suffer an injury in 2002. He tore a muscle in his arm pit and some connect it to the pregame octopus throwing promotion that he had participated in with another Detroit pitcher. He never pitched well again. It seems unlikely that Rice is to blame here. 

I don’t see injuries to Joe Savery, David Aardsma, Norm Charlton or Bryan Price early in their professional careers either. 

The Twins have drafted two other of his Rice pitchers. J.T. Chargois suffered injuries. Tyler Duffey was healthy. Both were relievers while at Rice.

Pitcher injuries happen. It seems unlikely that the workload at Rice is the cause and I wouldn’t blame the Twins for drafting a good arm that happened to pitch for Rice. I do think they should avoid having their pitchers participate in octopus throwing promotions.

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ober went from 72.2 to 167. That's a little more than 30%, no?

Didn't say I agree with the 30% but it has been used on this site quite a bit. But to be fair (2019 - 2023)

Ober went from 78.66, 0, 108.33, 72.66, 166.33

If he wouldn't have gotten hurt in 22 he probably would have went up around the 30% each year.

Canterino is the same years has 99.33, 0, 23, 37, 0, so based on Ober I would assume someplace between 2019 and 2022.

Festa - 53, 16.33, 72, 103.66, 92. 33 '

Varland - 64, 0, 103, 152.33, 149,66

Headrick - 100, 0, 63, 108.33, 100.66

 Based on these and just about all other Twins minor league pitchers, I see no chance they jump him to 125 innings.  If the Twins decide to keep him as a starter I would assume they bring him along like everybody else, starting with real short starts and then extending them slowly. So by the time he would be ready for the majors he will be getting up in innings and be forced to the pen, why not just get those innings in the majors if he is as good as we all hope and expect. I would bring him along just like the White Sox did with Kopech.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I also expect Polanco to be moved. Will make me sad because I think he's one of their best hitters and they need his offense. But I expect he'll be dealt. 

My only point really was that they aren't going to make any moves with a healthy roster to get Lee on it. He needs to show he's ready, but then he's waiting his turn like everyone else has. He just needs to be ready to take advantage of the chance that comes. He'll get his chance, but they aren't going to create a chance for him.

Agreed, no doubt. I think he shows a LOT in spring training, and I could see him being up VERY EARLY. He is very good, and I'm excited to have him in the lineup.

If he is hitting .160 after the first month of him being up (whenever that is) he'll go down. I just don't expect his bat to perform that way.

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Let's see if Ober can be productive this season before we count our chickens.

Bailey Ober has been a gold mine for the Twins. As a late-round draft choice with a considerable injury history, it looked like a major league career was far off while he was idled during the COVID year. Since 2021 he's logged 57 starts with an ERA+ of 116. 

I have emphasized that since the COVID year, Ober's arm has been sound. His injuries in 2022 were to his lower body and he managed to avoid any lost time due to injury in the most recent season. The Twins have seen fit to limit his innings, often pulling him from starts where he's been very good or even dominating. 

As @chpettit19 mentioned, I don't see him as any more prone to a disabling injury than the other members of the current Twins' rotation. I see him as a candidate to exceed the threshold of 162 major league innings in 2024, as much as Joe Ryan.

I am curious if the Twins Daily faithful think that Ober's injuries in 2022 were some sort of red flag that will limit his innings in the coming years. To me, since he was able to rehab (no surgery IIRC) and the lower body problems didn't recur in 2023, he is past this and we can worry about an arm that has been uninjured since 2019 (again IIRC).

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Agreed, no doubt. I think he shows a LOT in spring training, and I could see him being up VERY EARLY. He is very good, and I'm excited to have him in the lineup.

Brooks Lee is probably ready for MLB from one side of the plate. I would rather see them develop him as a complete switch hitter than rush him to the majors and make him a platoon player. That is going to take time because reps against LHP are less available. I would love to see him face every lefty they have in camp during spring training. Force feed him to speed up the process.

[Cory Engelhardt]

He only had about 100 plate appearances against lefties last year in the minors. That's not a HUGE sample, but you are right. He does need more at bats against left handed pitching ongoing to show a bigger picture.

I don't see any way he comes up and is JUST a platoon option.

[TopGunn#22]

Great topic Ted !  I'm allowing that you just wanted to supply a "possible" call up in each month for discussions sake and don't really expect ALL of them to be called up.

I think I would focus on Lee, Martin and Canterino.

Matt Canterino:  April, to me, is too aggressive but not completely out of the question.  His doctor said he could be allowed to pitch up to 125 innings this upcoming season.  That's interesting, since he's never actually been anywhere near that number his entire professional career.  The Twins say they haven't given up on him as a possible SP.  That's interesting, but considering the success that Duran has had, I'm taking that with a grain of salt.  Canterino to the bullpen means you can be "all in" on Louie Varland as a SP for at least the next 2 seasons.  Plus, I still expect the Twins to make some kind of move on the SP market either by trade (most likely) or FA.  Canterino's stuff is just too good  to ignore.  If he proves his health in spring training and in St. Paul the numbers will be there and he's a Twin sometime in May.

Austin Martin:  He's the most likely candidate to break camp with the Twins because of the strong chance there will be "something" wrong with Buxton during spring training.  I like his on-base skills and hitting him 9th to begin with would be fine with me.  I think his athletic profile shows he could be a plus CF.  If his on base skills impress (like Julien's did) you can always move him to the top or #2 of the lineup with Julien.  That's some serious table-setting.   April or May for Austin Martin.

Brooks Lee:  This is very dependent on whether or not Polanco is traded.  I expect Polanco to be traded before spring training.  That leaves Julien as the fulltime 2B.  Each of these guys and their advancement will require at minimum a solid spring training.  What changes Lee's dynamic is if he flat out impresses in spring training and then continues to do so in St. Paul.  The other factor is what is done with Farmer.  Castro can cover 2B and SS to some degree, but not like Farmer.  If Farmer is also traded, and Lee impresses in spring training and then at St. Paul, the Twins will need someone like him to cover SS, 2B and 3B.  I think May is realistic for Brooks Lee.

The last guy I'll address that I think actually has a chance in 2024 is Severino.  And as others have already pointed out this comes down to Kirilloff and Miranda.  If one or both have health issues this creates a problem.  This is also where the Twins could be or should be somewhat conflicted how to handle Julien. 

The optimal strategy for Julien would be to have him concentrate exclusively on 2B and improving defensively.  However, Brooks Lee isn't going to be traded for a SP.  It's not happening.  So with Lee lurking as the superior defender the alternate strategy with Julien would be to work him at 1B as well.  Severino has great power and probably too much swing & miss, but there are few power hitters who don't.  If 1B becomes a problem due to continued health issues with Kirilloff and Miranda is the better pivot Julien to 1B and Lee to 2B?  I think it is.  And it will be obvious if Lee is raking at St. Paul.  

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with the above, this team does not make room for young guys when healthy veterans are in their way. Wallner is a good example of this. 

[TopGunn#22]

I'd also like to add that I agree with this comment from @chpettit19:

"I'd treat him like every other starter in spring and if he's showing no struggles at the end of it I'd have no problem letting him go 125 if that's what my medical people are telling me he can do. If he can make 18 starts the first half of the year working his way up to 5 innings a start he'd be on track to take a rotation spot in 2025 after having been a bullpen weapon for the 2nd half of 2024. He's more talented than Varland. I'd much rather have Canterino in my 2025 rotation with Varland in the pen than the other way around."

If I'm the Twins, I'm using Varland and Canterino as barometers for each other.  Not that either one DETERMINES what the other will become, but more as a kind of balance between the two.   Varland as already built up the innings to become a SP.  But he struggles with giving up HR's and his command isn't consistently good enough.  We all agree that SP's are more valuable than RP's but it also depends on how "good" each of those pitchers are in their role.  The Twins have determined that Duran is more valuable closing out games.  If Canterino or Varland becomes a Devin Williams type of 8th inning guy, they are more valuable than a 4th or 5th SP.

Where I differ slightly with chpettit19 is that if Canterino is throwing bullets in spring training and early on in St. Paul, I'd just get him up to the Twins.  Throwing 4-5 inning starts in July is not a bad strategy, in fact it's quite good.  But if Canterino is lights out early on, I'd get him up, start by giving him 6th or 7th inning work in one-inning spurts and if things keep going well, get him in that 8th inning eventually.  Varland continues to build on innings as a SP and is the first arm you call upon if needed.  And again, a LOT of this is dependent on what the Twins do to add to their starting rotation before spring training.  

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yes, over both 2021 Miranda and possibly 2023 Wallner. 

2023 Matt Wallner had an OPS+ of 139. (2021 Miranda was still in the minors, but had a massive season.) Brooks Lee coming up and dropping an OPS+ of 140 or better would be rookie of the year stuff. I think people forget just how good Wallner was at the plate in 2023.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Agreed, no doubt. I think he shows a LOT in spring training, and I could see him being up VERY EARLY. He is very good, and I'm excited to have him in the lineup.

If he is hitting .160 after the first month of him being up (whenever that is) he'll go down. I just don't expect his bat to perform that way.

I am less high on him than many. I see an MLB regular with maybe an All Star game appearance during a big year. I expect him to be better than last year, but I don't expect him to be up early, and I'd bet he goes back down after his first call up. And all of that is very much a positive outcome for him. I don't see the star others see, but I hope the rest of you are right and he blows the doors off Fort Myers and we're all on here complaining that they won't call him up even though he's lighting St Paul on fire.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I fully expect Brooks Lee to debut in 2024. I don't think he's going to put up Miranda like numbers in AAA, but I think he'll improve on last year's numbers and show he's the best MLB ready IF prospect they have. And injuries are a forgone conclusion. Every team has them. The Twins will have them. And since I think he'll be the best guy available I think he'll be the one who gets the shot. I just disagree that they're going to force it while the entire MLB starting IF is healthy. They've never done that.

Now we also need to take into account what the roster actually looks like this year. Is Polanco still on it? Kepler? If those guys are both still here it makes it a lot harder for Lee to get his shot. Especially Polanco. I'd put Miranda as the first guy up if Kirilloff goes down, and maybe if Kepler or Wallner goes down depending on what Larnach is looking like (Kirilloff to OF, Miranda to 1B in that scenario). All I'm saying is that there's no precedent for this FO taking a healthy roster and moving guys around to give a prospect his first shot. No matter how well they're performing. Injuries are very much a key to Lee getting his first chance. Once he gets it the equation changes and becomes more about production as they'd then be more willing to move guys around based on the makeup of the roster as people get healthy again. I just disagree with the idea that Lee being ready is the only thing that matters.

I agree with you completely. 

Options are huge, they are overlooked by many of us mortals yet options have to be a primary factor in roster management and perhaps more of a consideration than who is better and who is worse... providing there isn't a huge whose better whose worse difference. Lee has to be Lewis good to bust through the food chain. 

You can't stash Polanco... You can stash Lee. 

If you are comfortable moving Polanco because of Lee. OK... Who is behind Lee when you need someone behind Lee?   

Not just the options... Brooks Lee isn't even on the 40 man yet and isn't required to be on the 40 man until December. 

Placing Brooks on the 40 man roster for 26 man deployment requires a leap frogging of players on the 40 man like Miranda and Severino. If Lee leap frogs them... it's quite possible that he kills them at the same time.

Lee has to be Royce Lewis like good.  

Lee has to be much better than Polanco before you even consider moving Polanco because of the existence of Lee. 

Right now... He's a guy we all believe in but a guy we all believe in with only 168 AB's that were kinda OK at the AAA. 

We got some time. 

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Didn't say I agree with the 30% but it has been used on this site quite a bit. But to be fair (2019 - 2023)

Ober went from 78.66, 0, 108.33, 72.66, 166.33

If he wouldn't have gotten hurt in 22 he probably would have went up around the 30% each year.

Canterino is the same years has 99.33, 0, 23, 37, 0, so based on Ober I would assume someplace between 2019 and 2022.

Festa - 53, 16.33, 72, 103.66, 92. 33 '

Varland - 64, 0, 103, 152.33, 149,66

Headrick - 100, 0, 63, 108.33, 100.66

 Based on these and just about all other Twins minor league pitchers, I see no chance they jump him to 125 innings.  If the Twins decide to keep him as a starter I would assume they bring him along like everybody else, starting with real short starts and then extending them slowly. So by the time he would be ready for the majors he will be getting up in innings and be forced to the pen, why not just get those innings in the majors if he is as good as we all hope and expect. I would bring him along just like the White Sox did with Kopech.

 

Totally fair. I don't think dropping him straight into MLB is the best option no matter what role he's in, but I understand that people feel differently. I don't see him building up 70-80 innings as a starter during the first half of the year before moving to the bigs and pitching out of the pen as some wasted season or outlandish idea. It'd make him far more likely to be a real option for the 2025 rotation, and I'd rather have him in the rotation than the pen if he's as good as we all hope. I don't see this FO being open to taking him out of the pen if he's dominant there for the year like people think he'd be. And I don't like the idea of taking the starter option off the table yet.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Bailey Ober has been a gold mine for the Twins. As a late-round draft choice with a considerable injury history, it looked like a major league career was far off while he was idled during the COVID year. Since 2021 he's logged 57 starts with an ERA+ of 116. 

I have emphasized that since the COVID year, Ober's arm has been sound. His injuries in 2022 were to his lower body and he managed to avoid any lost time due to injury in the most recent season. The Twins have seen fit to limit his innings, often pulling him from starts where he's been very good or even dominating. 

As @chpettit19 mentioned, I don't see him as any more prone to a disabling injury than the other members of the current Twins' rotation. I see him as a candidate to exceed the threshold of 162 major league innings in 2024, as much as Joe Ryan.

I am curious if the Twins Daily faithful think that Ober's injuries in 2022 were some sort of red flag that will limit his innings in the coming years. To me, since he was able to rehab (no surgery IIRC) and the lower body problems didn't recur in 2023, he is past this and we can worry about an arm that has been uninjured since 2019 (again IIRC).

I was actually an Ober naysayer going into last year when it came to his innings. He'd only pitched 100+ innings twice in his life and I didn't see him having any shot at a true starter's workload. This is one of those rare times where I've actually changed my tune because I was proven very wrong. Ober is part of why I don't want to move Canterino to the pen if it's possible he can still be a starter. If the medical people and trainers are saying he can do 125 innings I want him to try to do 125 innings.

Ober will definitely be interesting to watch this year. I don't know what to make of his injuries. Having multiple injuries is generally more concerning to me than having one/repeated major injuries like Lewis' ACL. If your leg, then your back, then your arm, then your foot, then whatever gets hurt I tend to worry more about your ability to stay healthy. A chronic issue like Buxton's knee appears to be is obviously very worrying, but, like we hope with Kirilloff's wrist, it's also a more straight forward solution to health. Fix that 1 thing and you're good. Will definitely be keeping an eye on Ober this year to see how he holds up. I don't know that I'd call his 2022 injuries a red flag, but I also wouldn't be looking to lock him up for 7 or 8 more years right now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I am less high on him than many. I see an MLB regular with maybe an All Star game appearance during a big year. I expect him to be better than last year, but I don't expect him to be up early, and I'd bet he goes back down after his first call up. And all of that is very much a positive outcome for him. I don't see the star others see, but I hope the rest of you are right and he blows the doors off Fort Myers and we're all on here complaining that they won't call him up even though he's lighting St Paul on fire.

I mean, betting on the under for any prospect is the safe bet, right?

I don't know that he will ever be a 7 win type player. But I can totally see him fairly easily bringing at least what Polanco brought in good years, probably with more pop. The kind of guy you want in a lineup.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, betting on the under for any prospect is the safe bet, right?

I don't know that he will ever be a 7 win type player. But I can totally see him fairly easily bringing at least what Polanco brought in good years, probably with more pop. The kind of guy you want in a lineup.

It is the safe bet, yes. But that's not all my stance is. I've been taking the over on Lewis since he was drafted. I basically have Jenkins in the HOF already. I just don't see star in Lee. I see an MLB regular for sure. Polanco is probably a good comp to what I see Lee's ceiling as. And I think he has a very good chance to reach that ceiling. And I'm definitely of the opinion that he'll be someone you want in a lineup. Between 110-130 OPS+ rankings with a possible All Star season in there. That's Polanco's career for the most part.

I'm not trying to say I don't believe in Lee, there's just a lot of people on here who are expecting a star, and I don't see it. There's a poster or 2 who believe he'll surpass Correa in both fielding and hitting talent in 2024. I just don't think he has as high a ceiling as others. But I'm still very glad we have him, and expect him to be an important part of this team for a long time (assuming he isn't dealt for pitching in the next month).

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It is the safe bet, yes. But that's not all my stance is. I've been taking the over on Lewis since he was drafted. I basically have Jenkins in the HOF already. I just don't see star in Lee. I see an MLB regular for sure. Polanco is probably a good comp to what I see Lee's ceiling as. And I think he has a very good chance to reach that ceiling. And I'm definitely of the opinion that he'll be someone you want in a lineup. Between 110-130 OPS+ rankings with a possible All Star season in there. That's Polanco's career for the most part.

I'm not trying to say I don't believe in Lee, there's just a lot of people on here who are expecting a star, and I don't see it. There's a poster or 2 who believe he'll surpass Correa in both fielding and hitting talent in 2024. I just don't think he has as high a ceiling as others. But I'm still very glad we have him, and expect him to be an important part of this team for a long time (assuming he isn't dealt for pitching in the next month).

I'm kind of with you on the expectations. It's hard to count on a guy being a 10 year regular, with some all star appearances possibly sprinkled in, and not be excited about that. I guess that's what I see, generally. Glad we have him too.

[DocBauer]

More than one thing can be true at the same time. And there's a lot of depates here and both sides are correct. At least at this point, when we have limited information and the offseason isn't even complete yet, and ST is still over a month away. 

I've advocated keeping Canterino as a SP until proven otherwise. He's not going to have a 8-10yr career with the Twins, more than likely. But what if he could be a prime SP, no worse than a #3 and possibly better, from ages 27/28-32/33? I'd take that! And just because the Twins say he's begining the season as a SP MOW, doesn't mean that's what's going to happen. Further, even if he does, he can begin on a pitch count limit and build up arm strength and work on control. That's easier to do with multiple innings at a time, IMO.

But it's also fair to point out that a doctor saying his arm is sound enligh for 125 IP doesn't mean they would all be EFFECTIVE innings. Just that he could medically throw that many. Just my opinion, but let him throw, get some IP under his belt, see how he looks and feels, and then make a decision later. Like Varland last season, maybe Canterino looks good but moves to the pen late in the season to help the Twins? Same thing might be true of Festa this year.

This doesn't have to be a career altering one or the other decided NOW. And it's for that reason I simply say start him initially and go from there. 

It's also possible the Twins make room for young prospects AND force them to prove they belong. A couple years ago, Gordon was in line for a promotion. He hurt his ankle. Arraez got the call and the rest is history. 

Last season, Wallner languished way too long in AAA because the FO, right or wrong, felt they had depth and hope for Gallo for way too long. Julien was up and down, like Wallner, but not only proved himself, he had better opportunity to stay up than Wallner did, right or wrong. Ditto for Lewis. But then again, Urshela was moved partially to make room for Miranda. Garver was moved to add, and because they were giving the still inexperienced Jeffers his shot. And not only are there injury opportunities during the season for the prospects, but there are mid season trade options as well.

They've kept kids down too long, in most of our opinions. But they haven't refused to promote them or play them either. And they have moved a few guys here and there to make room. So proving oneself, having opportunity, doing something with it, doesn't mean the FO does or doesn't just "move people" to make room. I think they've already shown it's a bit of a mix depending on the situation.

I think there no poor opinions on either side of these debates. I just think thr truth lies in the middle and remains fluid.

[Major League Ready]

I hope Lee proves me wrong.  The tools and results just don't look elite to me.  I see him as a good prospect and an above average ML player but I don't see a dominant prospect or an all-star type player.  Look what Wyatt Langford did in comparison. Again, I would be really happy to be wrong.

As I was reading the other posts about Polanco it occurred to me that the Twins have a bunch of players becoming arbitration eligible this year and next.  More importantly, Lopez and Paddack get big raises.  Even with Vazquez and farmer coming off, they have roughly a $20M increase in 2025.  This is going to impact how they manage this roster.  They have to create some depth from prospects and waiting until the last 2 months of 2024 is very risky.   

[wabene]

23 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean 124.1 feels like a "technically he didn't get to 125," but that's fair. I don't know all the details of his injuries and what they believe caused them so I don't know how to determine how many he should go. Just curious as to why you had 75 innings as the target.

I'd treat him like every other starter in spring and if he's showing no struggles at the end of it I'd have no problem letting him go 125 if that's what my medical people are telling me he can do. If he can make 18 starts the first half of the year working his way up to 5 innings a start he'd be on track to take a rotation spot in 2025 after having been a bullpen weapon for the 2nd half of 2024. He's more talented than Varland. I'd much rather have Canterino in my 2025 rotation with Varland in the pen than the other way around.

[DocBauer]

As to the OP:

CANTERINO: I don't see April unless the Twins make a "Duran" kind of move and just decide he's too good to have at St Paul and could be an immediate weapon. If that's the case, Varland stays a starter and Canterino might even break camp.

MARTIN: Regardless of his impressive numbers and being a natural OF/CF, he only played about a half a season. I don't believe he's up until June at the earliest, and possibly July. That's me saying Buxton is healthy enough to at least begin the season and gets some days off here and there and Martin gets a little more "seasoning" in CF.

LEE: He's probably up as soon as someone gets hurt in the INF. Hopefully that doesn't happen, and it won't be serious, but he's probably next man up if he's playing well at St Paul. Castro, and possibly Farmer, provide immediate depth. But Lee will get his time. I don't think he's far off from being ML ready, but he's not going to languish on the bench. Just like Julien last year, he'll be up when needed and I don't know that a month can be predicted at this time.

SEVERINO: Love the power and switch hitting ability and what seem to be pretty neutral splits. IMO, he needs to continue to refine his approach before he has a chance to actually help. I think he's break in case of emergency until July/August.

FESTA: He's going to pitch for the Twins this season. Right now, based on speculation, he'd be competing foe the 7th rotation spot. I love this kid and think he's got a chance to be pretty special. But only if he can maintain his endurance. I'm going to say half a dozen starts starting sometime in late June, early July, as a rotation piece, or two, gets sick or hurt, or pulls something. Good chance he's part of the pen come September. 

I don't want to see either of Rodriguez or Jones in 2024. Why? Because even if they have outstanding seasons, for them to jump all the way to MLB would probably mean something went really bad, like a rash of injuries. 

Want a couple dark horses to make their debut:

HELMAN: If the Twins don't go out and find the right RH role bat they'd like to add, and if Miranda doesn't have a really good ST, I can see him being added to the roster and breaking camp, with a good ST of his own. I don't think anyone wants Martin on the bench. They want him playing daily. Helman gives you pop and speed and decent defense all-over the place. And you don't feel like you are harming the development of a top prospect.

OHL: While the K's weren't anything to get worked up over, go check out his 2023 at AA. Instead of sitting on the high 80's and topping out 91 ish, he now sits 92-94 with his velocity and can touch 95-96. He just might force his way in to being one of the top rotation arm options from St Paul by June?

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would have exchanged Camargo and Severino. Any catcher injury and he is starting at least twice a week. 

Good point. Camargo was a miss for this article. Though he might not be considered a "top prospect" he's pretty certain to make his debut.

[darin617]

One thing that seems very wrong to me is why would they debut Lewis in September and Erod in October? They would not be post season eligible so bringing them up makes absolutely no sense at all. 

I understand you put a prospect down for each month but that least two are just wrong on so many levels. 

I enjoyed the read until I saw September & October listed. 

[Mike Sixel]

People are questioning Lee's results, when he was too good for AA less than a year out of college.... Mind. Boggling. 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People are questioning Lee's results, when he was too good for AA less than a year out of college.... Mind. Boggling. 

I don't think most people that are saying pump the brakes a little are being overly critical.  What I see is people saying he does not have elite tools or elite results so far.  Is this not accurate?  I think it's fair to say he is a very good prospect, but he has some proving to do before being promoted to the ML level given he was well below average at AAA.   

Just a sidenote ... Why isn't Severino getting any love?  Granted, he has defensive limitations, but his batting stats were quite a bit better than Lee last year.

[RpR]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People are questioning Lee's results, when he was too good for AA less than a year out of college.... Mind. Boggling. 

As MLR inferrred, AA is not AAA and AAA is not Major League challenge.

Eve some veterans when they have rehab. in AAA do not rip the cover off of the ball, so not great in AAA, may mean not average in the Big Show.