Rotation Innings

[stringer bell]

The Twins have a current rotation of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland. Only one of these pitchers has ever exceeded 162 innings pitched in a major league season (López in '22 and '23). What kind of total innings should be expected from these five guys, barring injury?

Of particular interest to me are Bailey Ober and Paddack. Between the minors and majors, Ober threw over 170 innings in 2023. Should he now be a "full go" for 2024? Ober experienced plenty of injuries early in his pro career, but has been healthy two of the last three seasons. His injuries in 2022 were not to his arm, but rather to his lower body.

Paddack has had two Tommy John surgeries, the most recent occurring early in 2022. He made it back on the mound for the Twins after they clinched the division and pitched very well out of the bullpen in post season. Most comments on Twins Daily indicate he should not be expected to exceed 100-120 innings this year. I don't know if medically he should be that limited. Barring a disabling injury, I don't see any reason he shouldn't approach 150 innings, but I'm really in the dark about what expectations should be for the second year after TJ surgery. 

Ryan has bumped up close to 162 innings both of the last two years. He was sidelined more than two weeks by COVID in 2022 and suffered a groin injury that in retrospect limited his effectiveness in the second half of 2023. Can the Twins look for him to move toward the 180 innings mark?

Louie Varland isn't guaranteed a rotation spot, but has pitched uninjured since all minor leaguers were limited by COVID in 2020. If he makes the rotation out of Spring Training, can he be expected to work full-time innings if he's in the rotation. 

I know it is prudent to have depth pieces lined up behind the projected rotation. How much depth would be influenced by limitations the coaching staff and front office place on those projected starters. 

[tony&rodney]

Chris Paddack will be limited in innings as he returns from TJ surgery. We can hope for 120 innings from Paddack as our #5 starting pitcher. Hopefully, his turn gets skipped on occasion to keep him fresh and leave his arm time for reacquainting to the rigors of pitching multiple innings. His personal high was 140 innings in 2019. 

All of the others (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland) are only limited by effectiveness and/or injury. The key will be health and we hope each of the five (for now) starting pitchers can maintain their health. Fortune, obviously, is important but the top four could each throw near 180 innings or more, although the odds may be pointed against that good luck. 

Naturally, there will need to be a number of starts and innings provided at various points in the season by guys who may not currently be scheduled to start the year on the big league squad.

[Doctor Wu]

Good post, and good questions. Other than Lopez, and to a less extent Ryan, the rest of these guys haven't pitched a lot of innings each year. Yet another reason for some reinforcements, or at least one very durable and effective arm in the rotation. Seems like we are wishing and hoping a bit too much otherwise. 

[August J Gloop]

Its unlikely that Paddack will be limited to 100 innings. That would only be 5 innings a start for 25 starts. That would imply they skipped him 7 times. If they plan to skip him that many times, 6 innings is better target for each start, which is 150 innings. That would be my innings target for Paddack, but without the skipping. I'd let him go 6-7 depending on stress / pitch count, but if he's over 85 through 5, he's coming out (at least early in the season). I 'd do thins since he's under contract for 2025 as well. If he were a free agent, I'd probably be less concerned, unless the medical directives or performance suggested he was struggling. 

Ober and Ryan should be targeting 180 and Lopez 200. I doubt Louie will be the 5th member of the rotation but if he is, then he'd likely be looking at the same 150 mark as Paddack, due to a lack of innings in his career. 

 

860 IP from the starters. That would be 35 innings less than last year, but still a top 10 number. I think we could work with that. 

[nicksaviking]

This is why it's so important to get another top of the rotation starter should be ignoring another back of the rotation starter all together.

We don't want those innings going to a hope-and-a-prayer starter, it would be a huge step back from last year.

[Mike Sixel]

I think everyone but Paddock is slated to pitch as many innings as they are effective and healthy. I don't know if that rotation is great, though.....but I don't think anyone is limited at this point other than Paddock. 

[chpettit19]

I don't think they'll have any pre-set inning limitations on any of them, including Paddack. If they let Ober rip off 167 innings last year after he threw 72.2 the year before I can't imagine they're going to limit Paddack significantly. The reports I saw on Canterino were that he was cleared to throw 125+ innings this year after throwing 0 last year and 37 in 2022. If they're going to let that happen I can't imagine they're going to limit Paddack significantly if he's rolling with the big club.

I think performance, and in season health, will be the only limiting factors when it comes to inning counts. Will there be some times where a start is cut short? Sure. Will they build Paddack up with some 80 pitch starts early? Quite possibly. But I think they let them all go as much as they can. They still need plenty of depth behind them because injuries will happen, but I don't think they're going to manufacture ways to significantly limit innings on anyone.

[Riverbrian]

Last Year we got 763 innings from our 5 most used starters. (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda) 

That's incredible. You don't see that kind of health from a MLB Rotation. 

Last year we needed 131 Innings from starters 6 through 8 (Varland, Mahle, Kuechel). Both 131 innings and 8 starters are incredibly low numbers beccause of how lucky we were health and talent wise last year. 

I do not expect that kind of good health to occur again and I don't think any of us should. 

If I had to make a prediction: 

I predict that we will need a bunch more than 8 starters to get through the season. Probably 11 or 12. 

I will predict that our top starters will produce around 600 innings. Starters 6 through 11 will have to produce 300 plus innings accordingly just to get through the season. 

I will predict that at the end of the year. When you look at the list of the 5 starters who made the most starts. It will not be the same as the top 5 starters selected for the rotation on opening day. 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

I doubt Louie will be the 5th member of the rotation but if he is, then he'd likely be looking at the same 150 mark as Paddack, due to a lack of innings in his career. 

I'm hoping Louie is the #4 pitcher. Varland has thrown 150 innings each of the last two years. He will not have any restrictions.

I put Paddack at #5 because he is coming off of his second TJ surgery and has never thrown more than 140 innings and that was in 2019. He should be handled very carefully. 120 innings would be terrific for Paddack and set him up nicely for 2025. 

The real unknown is how many innings the team receives from guys like Festa, Woods Richardson, Headrick, and others.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think they'll have any pre-set inning limitations on any of them, including Paddack. If they let Ober rip off 167 innings last year after he threw 72.2 the year before I can't imagine they're going to limit Paddack significantly. The reports I saw on Canterino were that he was cleared to throw 125+ innings this year after throwing 0 last year and 37 in 2022. If they're going to let that happen I can't imagine they're going to limit Paddack significantly if he's rolling with the big club.

I think performance, and in season health, will be the only limiting factors when it comes to inning counts. Will there be some times where a start is cut short? Sure. Will they build Paddack up with some 80 pitch starts early? Quite possibly. But I think they let them all go as much as they can. They still need plenty of depth behind them because injuries will happen, but I don't think they're going to manufacture ways to significantly limit innings on anyone.

Interesting thought. I will take the under at 120 innings for Paddack if he has perfect health. 

Do you think the Twins will use Matt Canterino as a starter for 125+ innings. This seems dubious at best. Hopefully he is healthy and gets some time in relief for the Twins.

Ober is a weird dude. He hasn't had arm issues and often looks like he could throw all day. His issues are command in the strike zone. Ryan has a rubber arm. Hopefully he avoids leg injuries. 

[August J Gloop]

If Paddack is under 120 innings and totally healthy, then he must have been pitching terribly or got suspended. That's 4 innings a start. There would be no reason to shield his arm that much, he's 28. The only reason to shield it at all is cuz you want even more innings next year.  

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Interesting thought. I will take the under at 120 innings for Paddack if he has perfect health. 

Do you think the Twins will use Matt Canterino as a starter for 125+ innings. This seems dubious at best. Hopefully he is healthy and gets some time in relief for the Twins.

Ober is a weird dude. He hasn't had arm issues and often looks like he could throw all day. His issues are command in the strike zone. Ryan has a rubber arm. Hopefully he avoids leg injuries. 

Fully healthy Paddack under 120 innings?! That'd be absolutely shocking, and I don't have any idea how they get through the season with Paddack in their rotation if he doesn't even throw 120 innings. Are you suggesting they're going to move him to the pen around the all star break? Because that'd be about what it takes to pull that off. They need 2 more MLB starting pitchers if they won't let a fully healthy Paddack go more than 120 innings. He's not a viable member of the rotation at that point.

I have no idea how they'll use Canterino. My best bet would be that he starts the year in A+ or AA as a starter and works his way up from there on short 3 or 4 inning starts before possibly being moved to the pen if he's showing his typical performance and the Twins have a need late in the year.

[KirbyDome89]

On 1/9/2024 at 1:05 PM, Riverbrian said:

Last Year we got 763 innings from our 5 most used starters. (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda) 

That's incredible. You don't see that kind of health from a MLB Rotation. 

Last year we needed 131 Innings from starters 6 through 8 (Varland, Mahle, Kuechel). Both 131 innings and 8 starters are incredibly low numbers beccause of how lucky we were health and talent wise last year. 

I do not expect that kind of good health to occur again and I don't think any of us should. 

I'd be shocked to see Ober stay healthy enough to replicate his 2023 innings total next season. If he hit's his 2021 IP number (100ish) and Paddack stays healthy/effective enough to throw the 120ish IP others are tossing out, that's a little more than the workload of one higher end starter. If you need to cobble those totals together it makes handing that 5th spot to Varland less appealing, though I far from sold regardless. It also puts a ton of pressure on Lopez to stay healthy and Ryan to take a step forward. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Lopez - 160+

Ryan 160

Varland if a starter- 140

Ober- 130

Paddack- 130

Assuming we don't trade for another starter.  That leaves around 140 other innings, for journeyman starters in AAA, Festa, Canterino, SWR ect.   

With all the Relievers I am beginning to believe we will go with Varland as a starter and a big trade may not be on the horizon as I expected earlier in the offseason.  Could still see something happen in the next month.  

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd be shocked to see Ober stay healthy enough to replicate his 2023 innings total next season. If he hit's his 2021 IP number (100ish) and Paddack stays healthy/effective enough to throw the 120ish IP others are tossing out, that's a little more than the workload of one higher end starter. If you need to cobble those totals together it makes handing that 5th spot to Varland less appealing, though I far from sold regardless. It also puts a ton of pressure on Lopez to stay healthy and Ryan to take a step forward. 

Why do you think Ober is due to break down? This seems to be an expectation based on an injury history without an arm injury in quite some time. 

[Riverbrian]

37 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd be shocked to see Ober stay healthy enough to replicate his 2023 innings total next season. If he hit's his 2021 IP number (100ish) and Paddack stays healthy/effective enough to throw the 120ish IP others are tossing out, that's a little more than the workload of one higher end starter. If you need to cobble those totals together it makes handing that 5th spot to Varland less appealing, though I far from sold regardless. It also puts a ton of pressure on Lopez to stay healthy and Ryan to take a step forward. 

When you consider how often starting pitching goes down. I'd be shocked if any of the top 5 starting pitchers stay healthy throughout the year. 

Last year was incredible and I don't believe it can be repeated. In my opinion starters 6 through 10 are going to play big roles and could almost be keys to the overall success. 

I believe that replication of the success we had last year will be nearly impossible no matter who they bring in... if they bring in.

I'm not saying it will be a huge decline but a decline none the less. That's why I'd rather focus on offensive improvement to cover the loss of ground on the mound. 

[KirbyDome89]

50 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Why do you think Ober is due to break down? This seems to be an expectation based on an injury history without an arm injury in quite some time. 

Because coming into last year he had broken down in every professional season sans a COVID shortened 2020. Whether it's a shoulder, elbow, hip, or whatever doesn't really matter; he's been shelved fairly consistently as a pro. Maybe all that is in the past, but relying on 160ish innings still feels pretty suspect. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

38 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

When you consider how often starting pitching goes down. I'd be shocked if any of the top 5 starting pitchers stay healthy throughout the year. 

Last year was incredible and I don't believe it can be repeated. In my opinion starters 6 through 10 are going to play big roles and could almost be keys to the overall success. 

I believe that replication of the success we had last year will be nearly impossible no matter who they bring in... if they bring in.

I'm not saying it will be a huge decline but a decline none the less. That's why I'd rather focus on offensive improvement to cover the loss of ground on the mound. 

Needing 45-50 starts out of the 6-10 is commonplace. Shouldn't be expecting 162 starts out of 1-5. 

As for who those 6-10 presently are? Uhhm.........

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Needing 45-50 starts out of the 6-10 is commonplace. Shouldn't be expecting 162 starts out of 1-5. 

As for who those 6-10 presently are? Uhhm.........

I don't know either... I couldn't tell a Festa from a Unicycle but I do believe the Twins are doing well in development and I think we will have some guys rising to the occasion. 

Don't know who... it could be that Unicycle guy. 

[stringer bell]

59 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Because coming into last year he had broken down in every professional season sans a COVID shortened 2020. Whether it's a shoulder, elbow, hip, or whatever doesn't really matter; he's been shelved fairly consistently as a pro. Maybe all that is in the past, but relying on 160ish innings still feels pretty suspect. 

AFAIK Ober had no injury in 2021. The Twins kept his innings down, but he was active until the last week of the season. In 2022 it was a groin issue (not his arm) and in 2023, there was again no injury. To me, he presents a pretty good shot to get to more than 150 innings. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Lopez - 160+

Ryan 160

Varland if a starter- 140

Ober- 130

Paddack- 130

Assuming we don't trade for another starter.  That leaves around 140 other innings, for journeyman starters in AAA, Festa, Canterino, SWR ect.   

With all the Relievers I am beginning to believe we will go with Varland as a starter and a big trade may not be on the horizon as I expected earlier in the offseason.  Could still see something happen in the next month.  

I hope at least 2 of the "journeyman starters" you list turn into something more then journeymen type pitchers.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Pitching injuries are an unpredictable lot, so I think the best bet is to just put guys out there as much as possible and try to build some depth behind them.  If reasonably healthy (a big if, but somebody has to be healthy!), Lopez should push 200 innings because he's that good and we want him out there as much as possible.  Ryan should be able to push to 180 or so, as should Ober.  That leaves Varland, who could get to 150 and Paddack, who I think will be allowed to push 150 as well.  Now, at least one of those guys will get hurt, but I don't see any really big limitations being placed on any of them.  The depth behind them at this point is pretty thin, which is why I think we'll see a trade for a starter so Varland becomes the depth much like Ober was last season.  I also think they will sign a cheap, journeyman, AAAA guy or formerly good guy like Dallas Keuchel just for some insurance at AAA.  Outside of that, we're down to SWR, who doesn't seem ready; Festa, who may be ready, and old friend Randy Dobnak. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

AFAIK Ober had no injury in 2021. The Twins kept his innings down, but he was active until the last week of the season. In 2022 it was a groin issue (not his arm) and in 2023, there was again no injury. To me, he presents a pretty good shot to get to more than 150 innings. 

2021 was bookended by injuries. He missed at least the first month of the season and then he finished the year on the IL with a hip aliment. Last season is an outlier as far as health is concerned. 

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

2021 was bookended by injuries. He missed at least the first month of the season and then he finished the year on the IL with a hip aliment. Last season is an outlier as far as health is concerned. 

Ober pitched on 9/24 in 2021. IIRC, he was placed on the IL so that there was room for SWR to get a start on one of the last days of the year. I would say any injury Ober had was akin to Joey Gallo’s foot injury in September of 2023. 
 

He made his debut in May of 2021 and the mjnors didn’t have their first games until May 4. I would say he was healthy for virtually all of 2021. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

10 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I hope at least 2 of the "journeyman starters" you list turn into something more then journeymen type pitchers.

LOL  there is a comma there.  I am talking about a Dallas Keuchel in 2023 or an Aaron Sanchez in 2022 or a AAAA pitcher that signs with us in AAA that we are going to try to tweak and give them a chance.   Dallas Keuchel I think will really help us in this department.  I think that went really well last year.  He held his end of the bargain and our team gave him the opportunity at the big league level he wanted and he gave us some good starts early.  He gave us 37 innings and helped get us 2 wins.  If we end up with 40 innings from this type of player it gives 100 for prospects who definitely are not journeyman starters LOL.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Pitching injuries are an unpredictable lot, so I think the best bet is to just put guys out there as much as possible and try to build some depth behind them.  If reasonably healthy (a big if, but somebody has to be healthy!), Lopez should push 200 innings because he's that good and we want him out there as much as possible.  Ryan should be able to push to 180 or so, as should Ober.  That leaves Varland, who could get to 150 and Paddack, who I think will be allowed to push 150 as well.  Now, at least one of those guys will get hurt, but I don't see any really big limitations being placed on any of them.  The depth behind them at this point is pretty thin, which is why I think we'll see a trade for a starter so Varland becomes the depth much like Ober was last season.  I also think they will sign a cheap, journeyman, AAAA guy or formerly good guy like Dallas Keuchel just for some insurance at AAA.  Outside of that, we're down to SWR, who doesn't seem ready; Festa, who may be ready, and old friend Randy Dobnak. 

We also have Winder who i haven't given up on quite yet.  

[wabene]

Pablo, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and Louie. For us long time Twins fans, this represents a really good rotation. Our expectations have changed however. This is not good enough. We need one more starter. Louie must simmer in St Paul, champing at the bit. That hound will be released at some point, guaranteed. This is a very valuable role Varland will be filling for a contender. There may be a mini pipeline forming behind him, but a contender would recognize they are not quite there yet. Maybe by next year the Twins can break another interminable streak and not have to bring in rotation help from outside the organization. We are not quite there yet.

Of course we would all prefer this addition to be a top of the rotation starter, that is how the front office can procure a better than passing off-season grade. A mid-rotation starter is the minimum and their path to an off-season grade of C. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just wanted to add; Ryan threw 165 2/3 innings last year, including his minor league numbers. I wouldn't be shocked to have him closer to 180 if he is healthy.

Baily Ober, including minor leagues, threw 167 innings last year. I think he can get to that number too, just in the majors. 

This is a good discussion though. I do think Paddack will have his innings monitored as well, along with Varland (if he does completely stay in the rotation all year, even with Varland throwing a combined 149 2/3 innings.)

Hopefully they add at least one more starter that can get to, at minimum, 165-180 innings. 

I am excited to see what SWR and Festa can bring, along with others, after these 6 or 7 (I say 6 or 7 because I think they add at least one playoff level starter, and probably another one too.)

[harmony55]

Bulk is the hot commodity among starting pitching.

Last year the Seattle Mariners got at least 190 innings each from Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert.

This week Seattle general manager Justin Hollander said projected starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are on track to take the 2023 route of Kirby and Gilbert with no innings restrictions:

https://twitter.com/thejagepage/status/1744931773190918638/photo/2

Of course, injuries or poor performance could require a change of plans.

Nevertheless, high bulk gives a team more flexibility, not only with a pitching staff but with an entire roster.

[Brandon]

On 1/10/2024 at 4:38 PM, Riverbrian said:

When you consider how often starting pitching goes down. I'd be shocked if any of the top 5 starting pitchers stay healthy throughout the year. 

Last year was incredible and I don't believe it can be repeated. In my opinion starters 6 through 10 are going to play big roles and could almost be keys to the overall success. 

I believe that replication of the success we had last year will be nearly impossible no matter who they bring in... if they bring in.

I'm not saying it will be a huge decline but a decline none the less. That's why I'd rather focus on offensive improvement to cover the loss of ground on the mound. 

For as much success as we had with health last season we had quite a few starters in our rotation miss time with injuries.  Mahle only got 5 starts.  Meada missed over a month close to two.  Ryan had a groin injury and Paddack was out almost the entire year.  We did get volume from our top 8 though.  Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Paddack, Ober, Ryan, Meada, Varland with Keuchel getting 6 or more starts too.