Ranking Twins Players By Regression Risk in 2024

[Cody Christie]

Every year, some players outperform their earned expectations, and others fail to live up to their previous year’s performance. Here are four Twins players who might be headed for regression in 2024.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Regression impacts even the greatest players in baseball history. Age is an obvious and essentially universal factor in projecting changes in player performance over time, but other factors, like injuries, can have an impact, too. Last year, the Twins saw Carlos Correa have arguably his worst big-league season because he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Minnesota hopes Correa is back to full strength in 2024, but who are some players that the regression bug might bite?

4. Max Kepler, OF
Kepler struggled out of the gate in 2023, hitting .207/.279/.409 with five doubles and 12 home runs in the first half. Some fans called for the Twins to cut ties with Kepler, because it seemed like the team had other, better options than their long-time right fielder. In the second half, though, Kepler played at a level he had rarely attained previously. He hit .306/.377/.549, with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs in 66 games after the All-Star break. His offense helped carry the Twins to a division title, but his performance was clearly an outlier from the rest of his nine-year track record.

Baseball Reference projects Kepler to post a .746 OPS in 2024, while FanGraphs has him pegged for a .779. In his career, Kepler has only posted OPS totals higher than those projections in 2019 and 2023. Minnesota is also looking to trade veteran players to create salary space to reinforce the starting pitching. Kepler’s value might be at an all-time high, so his regression might be another team’s problem. 

3. Ryan Jeffers, C
Jeffers surprised many during his rookie year, by posting a 119 OPS+ in the shortened 2020 season. He failed to reproduce those numbers in 2021 and 2022, with an 84 OPS+, forcing the Twins to add catching depth in the person of Christian Vazquez last winter. Jeffers responded with his best professional season, hitting .276/.369/.490 with a 134 OPS+ and 31 extra-base hits in 96 games. He led all catchers (minimum 250 at-bats) in OPS+, and finished seventh in WAR at the position. It was a breakout season, which has made the Twins more comfortable shopping Vázquez and other veterans this winter. 

Baseball Reference projects Jeffers to hit .246/.326/.438 with 17 doubles and 15 home runs next season. FanGraphs forecasts a .743 OPS, with a 105 wRC+ and a 1.7 WAR. Both projection systems have him with a higher OPS than his career average, but a lower one than what he posted last season. His 2.7 WAR last season was three times more than he has contributed in any other season. Jeffers is locked into the team’s catcher role for the foreseeable future, and it would be nice for him to continue building off last year’s performance.

2. Brock Stewart, RP
Stewart dominated during his first season in a Twins uniform, but an elbow injury limited him to fewer than 28 innings pitched. He provided Minnesota with 0.9 fWAR and 1.6 rWAR, which is remarkable considering the lack of sheer innings. His 0.65 ERA was immaculate, but his FIP was 2.21, so there might have been some luck associated with his overall numbers. Stewart posted a 35.8 K%, over 14 points higher than his previous career average. For his career, he has never pitched more than 34 1/3 innings at the big-league level, so the Twins hope he can top that mark next season in a setup role.

Baseball Reference projects Stewart to post a 3.46 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a 41-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 39 innings in 2024. Those totals are certainly adequate, but it’s a steep drop from the 12.7 strikeouts per nine frames he posted in 2023. FanGraphs estimates that Stewart will post a 3.48 ERA with a 30.1 K% in 63 innings. It’s hard to imagine that he would get to 63 innings with his lengthy injury history, but relievers can be inconsistent from one season to the next. Overall, Stewart’s numbers must regress next season, because he was so good in 2023. 

1. Willi Castro, UTIL
Castro surprised many with his performance last season, hitting .257/.339/.411 with 32 extra-base hits and 33 steals. During his four seasons in Detroit, Castro averaged a .673 OPS (87 OPS+), so his 106 OPS+ last year didn’t match his career totals. He gave the Twins tremendous value, especially since the team was comfortable using him at multiple defensive positions. Castro was one of the team’s most valuable offensive players, which is crazy to think about since he wasn’t guaranteed to make the team coming out of spring training. 

Baseball Reference projects Castro’s OPS to drop 40 points next season, which is 16 points higher than his career average. FanGraphs believes he will have a .705 OPS, with a 1.0 WAR, a 1.5-win drop from 2023. There is a reason why Castro was available on waivers last winter, and other teams didn’t claim him. The 2023 season might have been his peak, which only points to his performance declining in 2024. 

Do you agree with the above rankings? Would you add other players to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[JD-TWINS]

All very possible…….probable on some level. Jeffers playing more may/will lead to fatigue & pitcher’s respecting him more will lead to more difficulty at the plate. Stewart was hard to believe in ‘23 & has set a very high bar. Kepler is just a flat out wildcard - am hoping that his previous year’s issues were between his ears and he’s corralled those issues?? Castro, I think, just got better and more comfortable at the plate. He’s relatively young & a very good athlete - hoping his offensive drop is slight.

Regression  or a drop in performance could happen to just about the entire roster for differing reasons…….trying to stay upbeat for ‘24.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Gird your loins for Royce Lewis to regress. 155 wRC+ last year in 58 games with 4 grand slams…. Dr Evil could regress a lot and still be an absolute beast.

[Fatbat]

Somehow I see Castro not regressing much. He has great tools and has found his game. Id bet he has a similar’24 season. As brought up by @Richie the Rally Goat Royce can play at that high of a level can he?  140wRC+ is more realistic. I honestly don’t see much regression issues since we didn’t have a huge over inflated offensive output in 2023.  

[Trov]

I for sure believe Kepler will regress.  He will not hit a full season like he did second half, he never has.  Maybe he will have another career year, just not likely.  Jeffers if he becomes every day catcher he will regress too, but if he can split like he did I would not expect a ton of regression, he has shown when healthy he can hit.  Stewart for sure it will be expected.  What he did last year just never had track record, and pen guys are super volatile. 

Castro I believe can be near what he was last year.  One, it will be his age 27 season, the general peak years of most guys.  Two, in 2020 he put up even better numbers in SSS of 36 games, but he has shown an ability to put up okay numbers.  Three, it is not like he set world on fire last year.  He mainly just got on base at a higher rate.  In 2023, he only had 17 more plate appearances than in 2022, and only had 4 more hits, all extra base hits 3 triples and a HR, the doubles were the same and so where singles.  The big difference was in 2023 he walked 19 more times.  So really the difference between his 2022 season and 2023 season was 4 hits, all extra base hits, and 19 walks. The walks are something people can improve on over time, and he can replicate that.  In 2021 he had 31 more plate appearances than in 2023, had 1 less hit, same amount of HR and 1 more triple with 3 less doubles.  Again, the main difference was the walks, having less in 2021.  So really, if he can maintain a similar eye at the plate as he showed last year, I think his production can be very similar. 

Really, even if his offense takes a little dip, he is there for his defense first.  He actually hit lefties worse last year than his career average, but he hit righties better.  Over his career he was pretty even splits, but last year was much better hitting left handed than right.  So if he can bring his numbers hitting right handed back to career average, and can maintain his numbers hitting left handed like last year, he could even have a better year, or he if gets back to even splits and does not regress too much hitting left handed he will still be on par with last year.  

[Minny505]

Kepler is the most obvious regression candidate on the team. He might be so obvious that no one on the trade market wants to pay for his 2023 production level.

Jeffers and Castro seem the least likely to regress based on age and natural progression, yet they both dramatically overperformed their xwOBA in 2023, so neither would be a surprise.

Nobody should expect Stewart to put up a 2.21 FIP again. That's just natural volatility for the IP sample size. Anything under 4 would be a continued improvement based on his age and career numbers, regardless of his SSS performance in 2023. 

[chpettit19]

Castro will be really interesting to follow this year. As @Trov explains, it was his BB% that really took off last year. He hit the ball slightly harder, but still well below average. What he did was jump his BB% up to league average and that's what helped drive an increase in his overall numbers. BB% can definitely be a sustainable change for him, and I think he's still a great option for being the super-utility man to start the year. I am not a fan of him getting an everyday starting spot in CF as some have suggested, but I think he's still the ideal super-sub going into the 2024 season.

Kepler got back to just trying to hit the ball hard and not trying to get too cute with things. I don't expect him to maintain his 2nd half performance over a full season, but I don't expect a huge regression from his overall numbers as I think he'll probably just be more steadily between his 1st half and 2nd half selves. 

Stewart is a complete wild card, like most relievers. Worthy of a shot to start the year as they do their usual rotating of guys until they find the right combo for the 2nd half of the season.

Jeffers is a tough one to figure out. His expected numbers would suggest a bit of a regression is coming, but he was also a bat first guy and has shown glimpses of this before. I don't expect a huge fall off, but I also don't expect him to OPS .859 again. I don't buy the "if he plays more he's obviously going to regress from wear and tear" argument at all as the Twins don't play any catcher nearly enough for that to be a real concern. He's likely getting anywhere from 55-60% of starts next year so it's not like he's going to be playing a crazy amount. 

I don't know if Cody wasn't considering less than full season players, but I think Wallner is the likeliest candidate for regression. I think he's a super talented dude, and has already shown some ability to make adjustments, but I just don't trust him to close the hole on the inner 3rd of the plate that he has. Teams know about it now and are going to do everything they can to exploit it. He'll continue to pound mistakes where pitchers miss over the middle, and wear pitches when they miss too far inside, but MLB pitchers are really good and his hole is pretty massive. Certainly not writing him off as he's showing some really good ability, and he appears to work really hard at making adjustments. But it's going to be hard for him to maintain his production over a full season now that teams know how to attack him.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with you all.  Each of these guys could and probably will regress to some degree.  I compare Castro to an emerging Cesar Tovar.  Great utility guy with speed off the bench, Tovar grew into a full-time, regular player, and a very good one at that.  Castro may not quite be Tovar, but he could be close.  As was pointed out, he's entering his prime at age 27.  Maybe he gets even better.

Stewart?  Bullpen guys, especially bullpen guys who are "oft injured" are impossible to predict.  Kepler?  I'd bet on some type of regression.  Will it be HUGE with Max being 2021 & 2022 bad?  I hope not.  But he is still one of our primary trade chips this off-season.  

Jeffers is a really tough call.  In some respects I'm more worried about him than Kepler.  This is why it's probably necessary to keep Vasquez around in 2024.  Vasquez should also be a better hitter than in 2023.  The bar is pretty low for him to improve offensively.  

[JD-TWINS]

A aside:

For some Fandom emotion stirring early in the year………the Twins are posted in the first MLB Power Rankings as 17th. Wow!!

Cubs - Padres - Brewers - Mariners - all seeded ahead of Twins.

Lopez is a potential Cy Young guy going into ‘24. Duran is arguably the closer with best stuff in the game.

Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Correa - Wallner - Ober - Ryan as a big part of the core……..do not understand the, IMO, major slight!

11 people combined on these rankings.

[Beast]

I’d put Lewis and Wallner pretty high on the list.

[Beast]

34 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A aside:

For some Fandom emotion stirring early in the year………the Twins are posted in the first MLB Power Rankings as 17th. Wow!!

Cubs - Padres - Brewers - Mariners - all seeded ahead of Twins.

Lopez is a potential Cy Young guy going into ‘24. Duran is arguably the closer with best stuff in the game.

Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Correa - Wallner - Ober - Ryan as a big part of the core……..do not understand the, IMO, major slight!

11 people combined on these rankings.

A lot of teams ahead of them have made attempts to make their teams better.

The Twins have gotten significantly worse.  And, as in the spirit of the article, a lot of players performed at an unsustainable level.

[Muppet]

Regression works both ways. I'd expect (or at least hope) to see better years from Correa, Vazquez, and Gordon. 

[Blyleven2011]

I evaluate player's after 3 seasons to know what they are going to be in their careers ,  we know that Kepler has more than 3 years in his career so we know what type of player to expect  , would like to believe he's cleared the cob webs out between his ears but  he showed his ability in the playoffs , he doesn't come through in the clutch  ...

Castro should have alot of confidence  after his season with the Twins , he played well ,  I see him as staying about the same ...

Jeffers i still am not convinced  with him , did he finally break out to be the hitter we all are hoping for , need another season to evaluate  ...

Stewart  I hope stays healthy  and gives us what he did in 2024 with less injuries , he could be the diamond in the ruff  if management uses caution on his arm ...

Lewis has been  a game changer this past season  , still just to early in his career to know exactly what his career  will look like , injuries  have given us a small sample size , but when healthy  he has all the confidence in the world to succeed  ...

Wallner  has a small sample size in his career and if any player is considered for regression it would be him , I'd like to believe he is our answer for years of service  but I just don't see it at this time , GO Wallner  ...

Confident player's come through in the clutch ...

[jorgenswest]

Of your examples, I think Jeffers best fits regression. I also expect regression to the mean from Gordon.

 

[beckmt]

I feel that Ryan could completely fall off the map, same with Varland.  Pitching you just never know for a few years what to expect.  Hopefully others will step up.  

Kepler is the hitter most likely to regress in a big way.  Rest is who knows.  

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

A aside:

For some Fandom emotion stirring early in the year………the Twins are posted in the first MLB Power Rankings as 17th. Wow!!

Cubs - Padres - Brewers - Mariners - all seeded ahead of Twins.

Lopez is a potential Cy Young guy going into ‘24. Duran is arguably the closer with best stuff in the game.

Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Correa - Wallner - Ober - Ryan as a big part of the core……..do not understand the, IMO, major slight!

11 people combined on these rankings.

Thats because we haven’t signed a shut down ace for $30+mil. Who cares about a #17 ranking when the two teams in the 23 ws were….about 17ish. Stir that pot….