Ranking Twins Players By Regression Risk in 2024

Somehow I see Castro not regressing much. He has great tools and has found his game. Id bet he has a similar’24 season. As brought up by @Richie the Rally Goat Royce can play at that high of a level can he?  140wRC+ is more realistic. I honestly don’t see much regression issues since we didn’t have a huge over inflated offensive output in 2023.  

I for sure believe Kepler will regress.  He will not hit a full season like he did second half, he never has.  Maybe he will have another career year, just not likely.  Jeffers if he becomes every day catcher he will regress too, but if he can split like he did I would not expect a ton of regression, he has shown when healthy he can hit.  Stewart for sure it will be expected.  What he did last year just never had track record, and pen guys are super volatile. 

Castro I believe can be near what he was last year.  One, it will be his age 27 season, the general peak years of most guys.  Two, in 2020 he put up even better numbers in SSS of 36 games, but he has shown an ability to put up okay numbers.  Three, it is not like he set world on fire last year.  He mainly just got on base at a higher rate.  In 2023, he only had 17 more plate appearances than in 2022, and only had 4 more hits, all extra base hits 3 triples and a HR, the doubles were the same and so where singles.  The big difference was in 2023 he walked 19 more times.  So really the difference between his 2022 season and 2023 season was 4 hits, all extra base hits, and 19 walks. The walks are something people can improve on over time, and he can replicate that.  In 2021 he had 31 more plate appearances than in 2023, had 1 less hit, same amount of HR and 1 more triple with 3 less doubles.  Again, the main difference was the walks, having less in 2021.  So really, if he can maintain a similar eye at the plate as he showed last year, I think his production can be very similar. 

Really, even if his offense takes a little dip, he is there for his defense first.  He actually hit lefties worse last year than his career average, but he hit righties better.  Over his career he was pretty even splits, but last year was much better hitting left handed than right.  So if he can bring his numbers hitting right handed back to career average, and can maintain his numbers hitting left handed like last year, he could even have a better year, or he if gets back to even splits and does not regress too much hitting left handed he will still be on par with last year.  

Kepler is the most obvious regression candidate on the team. He might be so obvious that no one on the trade market wants to pay for his 2023 production level.

Jeffers and Castro seem the least likely to regress based on age and natural progression, yet they both dramatically overperformed their xwOBA in 2023, so neither would be a surprise.

Nobody should expect Stewart to put up a 2.21 FIP again. That's just natural volatility for the IP sample size. Anything under 4 would be a continued improvement based on his age and career numbers, regardless of his SSS performance in 2023. 

I agree with you all.  Each of these guys could and probably will regress to some degree.  I compare Castro to an emerging Cesar Tovar.  Great utility guy with speed off the bench, Tovar grew into a full-time, regular player, and a very good one at that.  Castro may not quite be Tovar, but he could be close.  As was pointed out, he's entering his prime at age 27.  Maybe he gets even better.

Stewart?  Bullpen guys, especially bullpen guys who are "oft injured" are impossible to predict.  Kepler?  I'd bet on some type of regression.  Will it be HUGE with Max being 2021 & 2022 bad?  I hope not.  But he is still one of our primary trade chips this off-season.  

Jeffers is a really tough call.  In some respects I'm more worried about him than Kepler.  This is why it's probably necessary to keep Vasquez around in 2024.  Vasquez should also be a better hitter than in 2023.  The bar is pretty low for him to improve offensively.  

I’d put Lewis and Wallner pretty high on the list.

34 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A aside:

For some Fandom emotion stirring early in the year………the Twins are posted in the first MLB Power Rankings as 17th. Wow!!

Cubs - Padres - Brewers - Mariners - all seeded ahead of Twins.

Lopez is a potential Cy Young guy going into ‘24. Duran is arguably the closer with best stuff in the game.

Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Correa - Wallner - Ober - Ryan as a big part of the core……..do not understand the, IMO, major slight!

11 people combined on these rankings.

A lot of teams ahead of them have made attempts to make their teams better.

The Twins have gotten significantly worse.  And, as in the spirit of the article, a lot of players performed at an unsustainable level.

Regression works both ways. I'd expect (or at least hope) to see better years from Correa, Vazquez, and Gordon. 

I evaluate player's after 3 seasons to know what they are going to be in their careers ,  we know that Kepler has more than 3 years in his career so we know what type of player to expect  , would like to believe he's cleared the cob webs out between his ears but  he showed his ability in the playoffs , he doesn't come through in the clutch  ...

Castro should have alot of confidence  after his season with the Twins , he played well ,  I see him as staying about the same ...

Jeffers i still am not convinced  with him , did he finally break out to be the hitter we all are hoping for , need another season to evaluate  ...

Stewart  I hope stays healthy  and gives us what he did in 2024 with less injuries , he could be the diamond in the ruff  if management uses caution on his arm ...

Lewis has been  a game changer this past season  , still just to early in his career to know exactly what his career  will look like , injuries  have given us a small sample size , but when healthy  he has all the confidence in the world to succeed  ...

Wallner  has a small sample size in his career and if any player is considered for regression it would be him , I'd like to believe he is our answer for years of service  but I just don't see it at this time , GO Wallner  ...

Confident player's come through in the clutch ...

Of your examples, I think Jeffers best fits regression. I also expect regression to the mean from Gordon.

I feel that Ryan could completely fall off the map, same with Varland.  Pitching you just never know for a few years what to expect.  Hopefully others will step up.  

Kepler is the hitter most likely to regress in a big way.  Rest is who knows.  

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

A aside:

For some Fandom emotion stirring early in the year………the Twins are posted in the first MLB Power Rankings as 17th. Wow!!

Cubs - Padres - Brewers - Mariners - all seeded ahead of Twins.

Lopez is a potential Cy Young guy going into ‘24. Duran is arguably the closer with best stuff in the game.

Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Correa - Wallner - Ober - Ryan as a big part of the core……..do not understand the, IMO, major slight!

11 people combined on these rankings.

Thats because we haven’t signed a shut down ace for $30+mil. Who cares about a #17 ranking when the two teams in the 23 ws were….about 17ish. Stir that pot….