New School vs. Old School: Joe Mauer’s Hall of Fame Case Fits Both Voting Styles

[Cody Christie]

Joe Mauer is trending in the right direction to be a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer. One of the biggest reasons he is on that track is because his case fits both new- and old-school voting styles.

Voting for the National Baseball Hall of Fame is not an exact science. It's rarely treated as a science at all, by those who participate in it. Some voters take an old-school approach and value traditional statistics, like batting average, All-Star appearances, MVPs, and so on. Other voters take a more new-school approach, and consider items like JAWS, WAR, and other 21st-century metrics. There is no perfect answer for who should or shouldn’t be elected; that’s why there can be debate among fans and writers.

In order to be elected, players need 75 percent of eligible BBWAA writers to check their name on the ballot. Joe Mauer has garnered more than enough support to be elected on the ballots that have been revealed so far, but that doesn’t mean he will stay above the threshold. Some candidates see their percentage drop when non-public ballots are counted, so Mauer needs to build up a cushion before ballots are due at the end of the year. 

Mauer’s greatness has been debated among Twins fans for various reasons. On a national level, many view Mauer as a surefire Hall of Famer, even if he doesn’t get elected on the first ballot. His résumé includes old- and new-school traits that will appeal to all voters.

Old-School Résumé
1. Batting Titles: Old-school voters love nothing more than a good ol’ batting champ. Batting average is an easy statistic to understand, and the prestige of the batting crown stretches back well over 100 years. Mauer won three batting titles, and did so in record-breaking fashion. He won three batting titles and hit .306/.388/.439 for his career. Mauer was the first AL catcher to win a batting title. Three NL catchers have won batting titles, but only Josh Gibson of the 1930s Negro National League matched Mauer’s trio. His second batting title in 2009 made him the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. From 2004-2013, he had baseball’s second-best batting average, behind Miguel Cabrera.

2. MVP season: Johnny Bench is the gold standard at catcher, and his 1972 season might be the best ever at the position. Mauer’s 2009 MVP is not far behind. In 138 games, he hit .365/.444/.587 with 30 doubles and 28 home runs. He set the MLB record for highest average by a catcher since World War II. Mauer fell one vote shy of being unanimous, so he got support from both sides of the aisle.

3. Other Hardware and Old-School Stats: Mauer’s résumé includes multiple other honors outside of his MVP. He was a six-time All-Star, winning three Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers. He finished in the top eight for MVP in four different seasons. Mauer was the 10th player in MLB history who started at least half of his games as a catcher to collect 2,000 hits. Only 14 players have more than Mauer’s three batting titles. Overall, he was a No. 1 pick in the draft who played his entire career for his hometown team, and that storyline should help his candidacy. 

New-School Résumé
1. JAWS: Jay Jaffe’s JAWS attempts to rank players based on their worthiness for the Hall of Fame. According to Baseball Reference, a player’s JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their seven-year peak WAR. Mauer has the seventh-highest JAWS among catchers, and is the only player in the top 11 who has yet to be enshrined in Cooperstown. His seven-year peak WAR ranks as the fifth-best in MLB history, ahead of current Hall of Famers like Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk. Mauer is among the best catchers of all time, and it’s not particularly close. 

2. MVP Season: Mauer led the AL in multiple statistical areas that appeal to those with a primarily new-school thought process. Mauer finished first in Offensive WAR (7.7), OBP (.444), SLG (.587), OPS (1.031), Adjusted OPS+ (171), Runs Created (138), Adjusted Batting Runs (58), Adjusted Batting Wins (5.3), and Offensive Win % (.791). He was the first AL player to top the league in BA, OBP, and SLG (the rate stat Triple Crown) since George Brett in 1980. 

3. Other Numbers and New-School Stats: Only four catchers in MLB history had a higher WAR for their first ten seasons, including Bench, Mike Piazza, Gary Carter, and Mickey Cochrane. He was considered an above-average pitch framer, and had the seventh-best fielding percentage for all catchers. Among the 20 players who played at least 50 percent of their non-pinch-hitting games behind the plate and accumulated at least 7,000 PA in the AL and NL, Mauer ranks sixth with a 124 OPS+.

Jaffe wrote about Mauer’s candidacy at FanGraphs and included this fitting quote from one of baseball’s best broadcasters. Former White Sox’s play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti, offered these words on the occasion of Mauer's beautiful final appearance at catcher in 2018: “None of us gets to choose how we’re remembered on this planet. But in the game of baseball, every once in a while, a player so special to a town gets to choose how he walks off the field for a final time. If this is it for Joe Mauer, a fitting, touching, and warm send-off on a chilly day in the Twin Cities.”

Only two catchers were elected on the first ballot: Bench (1989) and Iván Rodríguez (2017). Will Mauer join them? Do you take a new- or old-school approach to looking at Mauer’s HOF candidacy? Will his candidacy be helped because of voters from both voting styles? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

Mauer belongs in the hall. IMO he should be a 1st ballot inductee. I've never understood how some local fans disrespected him. He was one of the best catchers of all time. It was unfortunate an injury made him switch positions, but he still hit! Local boy done great!

[Melissa]

Excellent article, Cody! I’ve always been dumbfounded by the “fans” who denigrated Mauer- he didn’t hit home runs, he switched to first base, he wasn’t rah-rah enough, etc. Why not notice and celebrate the amazing things he did? 

[Old Crow]

AMEN!!!

[Nashvilletwin]

It’s going to be close for a first ballot induction.  Some voters are either just prickly about the aura of being a first - time inductee or just plain have other issues (like the fool he kept Joe from being the unanimous MVP).

Now, if Joe hadn’t been robbed of the Gold Glove at 1B which he most assuredly deserved, it would be a lay up.

Merry Christmas to all my fellow TDers.

[nclahammer]

Excellent read and info., I've been warming to Joe Mauer as a HOFer since he retired.  Reflection is a powerful teacher.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This was excellent. Thank you!

[arby58]

One of the raps against Maurer was that he didn't play catcher long enough to be considered that for induction purposes. That is nonsense. In Mauer's career, he appeared at catcher in 921 games. He was at first in 603 games. He served as a DH in 310 games. He played catcher more than any other position. A recent article supporting Joe's election noted that  from 2005-13, Mauer hit .323 with a .135 OPS+. and 43.2 WAR, or an average of 4.8 per season. It closed with "A general guideline of WAR says 5.0 in a year is an All-Star level.  So Mauer was basically All-Star level for nine years as a catcher. That's plenty long enough."

Welcome to Cooperstown, Joe! 

 

[Heiny]

Mauer is a no-doubt, sure-fire, 100-percent,  Hall of Famer.  This is not even arguable.  Put him in on the first ballot and be done with it.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

One other thing helping his candidacy—Ichiro played in the season opening two-game series in Japan at the Tokyo Dome in March of 2019. Those two games delayed Ichiro’s eligibility from this year’s ballot to next year’s.  If Ichiro and Beltre were both on this ballot, I think Joe would be receiving less support.  It’s still going to be close this year, but fingers cross he can stay above 75%.

[DJL44]

He's also a really nice guy, which has become more important to Hall of Fame voters. Especially for Era Committee voting they've been overlooking better players to select people they would rather spend time with at induction ceremonies. Mauer is like the opposite of Curt Schilling, for example.

[Doctor Gast]

Catching is a very demanding position, physically, and mentally & is very high contact. Not enough catchers get into the HOF because they don't hit enough HRs due to the drain of the position that affects their offensive WAR. Mauer has done it all, he deserves to get in on the 1st ballot.

[DJL44]

Quote

So Mauer was basically All-Star level for nine years as a catcher. That's plenty long enough. 

Yes. Bill Freehan should be in, too.

I'm definitely more of the "new school" voter but I think catchers are quite underrepresented in Cooperstown. I think they set the bar for catchers at about the right level in the 1940s when they elected Roger Bresnahan. If you're as good as Bresnahan you should be in.

[sweetmusicviola16]

If he had hit lets see, 4 more HR's per season for his career, for a career total topping over 200 there wouldn't even be a debate. We are still obsessed with the HR instead of the game of baseball. 

When looking at the entirety of his career, put him in. He gets a bad rap for durability but he was generally good for 130 starts per season. That's more than you can say for many a player.

I saw his ML debut at the Dome in 2004. Exciting.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

It’s going to be close for a first ballot induction.  Some voters are either just prickly about the aura of being a first - time inductee or just plain have other issues (like the fool he kept Joe from being the unanimous MVP).

Yeah, so far it looks like there are some real ***-clowns who have been given HOF voting status. 1 used his ballot to to vote solely for Beltre, 1 used his ballot to vote for Manny and ARoid, and 1 used his ballot to to vote for Beltre, Rollins and Utley. 1 voter named Hunter on his ballot, but not Mauer (sorry Torii).There is also another voter who used his ballot to solely vote for Beltre and Mauer, but at least he's on the right track. And let's not get into the Manny and ARoid voters...

[mikelink45]

Consider Catcher from the Twins history.  Mauer is  number one and who would be number 2?  Battey, Harper, AJ?  When a player stand so far above everyone else on a 62 year old list that makes him really special.

Of course he should be in.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Consider Catcher from the Twins history.  Mauer is  number one and who would be number 2?  Battey, Harper, AJ?  When a player stand so far above everyone else on a 62 year old list that makes him really special.

Of course he should be in.

That's a good argument for the Twins Hall of Fame, not the national one.

[Blyleven2011]

Just like Santa claus , you can believe but your always disappointed  ...

As a catcher and his excellent start to his career he will be inducted into the hall of fame ...

Injuries robbed him of a better career,  you have to take that into consideration...

Just not predicting first ballot ...

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's a good argument for the Twins Hall of Fame, not the national one.

Then let's see the competition mlb wide - Perez (both of them) have longevity and defense - far below Mauer of Offense.  AJ? Good player with a seemingly bad personality.  MN nice wins there.  The only competition is in SF - Buster Posey.  Mauer more games, BA - Mauer wins but not by much,  Hits - Mauer over 2000, Posey over 1500.  HR Posey had more power 158 - 143.  Mauer more doubles, triples, walks, stolen bases, OPS.  Who else?  Realmuto?  

By WAR and JAWS - it is Mauer and Posey is next.  Elect them both.  No one else is close.

[tony&rodney]

Anyone who considers the difficulty of the catcher position and knows baseball puts Joe Mauer in the Hall of Fame right away. We will find out soon enough though.

On numerous occasions I have read national writers wonder why Mauer was so reviled in Minnesota due to the comments they read on blogs and more generally the articles by local writers. I believe the nastiness of the local commentary gets blown way out of context by national writers but the reference is a stain that has never made any sense at all.

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, Melissa said:

Excellent article, Cody! I’ve always been dumbfounded by the “fans” who denigrated Mauer- he didn’t hit home runs, he switched to first base, he wasn’t rah-rah enough, etc. Why not notice and celebrate the amazing things he did? 

Baseball in general brings this on itself.  It's thought that good debate enlivens the fan base, but all it really does is give a narrative to the best players that "he wasn't that good."  The NFL doesn't make nearly as big a fetish out of debate, and simply celebrates its best by having a "large hall".  Much better marketing, and is just another (small) way that football overtook baseball.

[minman1982]

Mauer deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Is he a first-ballot Hall of Famer? Maybe, maybe not. It is too bad that injuries forced him over the first base toward the end of his career.